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-   -   Next Financial crash looming? (https://www.pprune.org/fragrant-harbour/393915-next-financial-crash-looming.html)

hongkongfooey 30th Oct 2009 02:30

Yoke, one of the best posts here, IMHO :ok:

The " experts " for instance, tipped AUD parity with the USD, and beyond, last year and look what happened :confused:
Then they tipped the first downward movement was a " blip ", look what happened.
Now the experts are telling us there is another crash on the way, I guess we will wait and see what happens.
The thing about these experts, is that they have massive amounts to gain when there is a crash, because they are the ones with all the spare money to buy cheap shares.

Thunderbird4 30th Oct 2009 03:50

Buy and read one book; 'Fooled by Randomness' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
When you have finished, read it again. If you still don't understand, study your Elliot waves closely and good luck!
ps. watch out for swans of a different colour.

EXEZY 30th Oct 2009 05:59

You believe as a people we have ?no? power! The power to say ?no? | www.tpuc.org

On the beach 30th Oct 2009 15:41

As Warren Buffet so succinctly put it, there are only 2 rules to investment:

Rule 1: Never lose money.

Rule 2: Don't forget Rule 1


On the beach :ok:

naughty johnny 1st Nov 2009 12:44

EXEZY,
Check your PM's.........

luvmuhud 2nd Nov 2009 12:06

Elliott Wave Theory
 
Prechter at least seems to have predicted recent happenings with relative accuracy. Although I'm new to the technical side of investment, EWT seems to have merit. The ebbs and flows of social mood are the drivers of buying and selling, not company fundamentals (although they are highly relevant in their own right). In late Feb 09, 95+% of traders surveyed were bears, and what do you know......we started a steep bull run. Elliott correctly predicted this at the end of Feb, and advised subscribers to cover their shorts.

Now, given the extreme majority of bulls in the market, he's predicting 'it' has run out of steam....let's see what happens over the next few months. Check out this free glimpse of his current bearish outlook....:(

"Black Monday: Ancient History Or Imminent Future?" by EWI, FSO Editorial 10/30/2009

lmh

luvmuhud 2nd Nov 2009 12:12

Buffett??
 
As a side note, I used to listen to all Warren Buffett's musings as gospel, but lately, I fear his patriotism has clouded his judgment somewhat!

YouTube - Warren Buffett is Bullish on America's Future


Complete failure to accept his beloved U.S. of A is heading for a rough few decades (possibly centuries!).

lmh

FlexibleResponse 1st May 2010 15:25

There are such wonderful theories out there, such masterful economic sciences, whole economic universities of study and knowledge, Professors of every branch imaginable of economic variation, such fantastic fundamental analysis, such exciting technical analysis, super dooper software analysis programs...and yet, nobody was able to identify and stop a simple house loan scam in the USA that eventually brought the world to its knees...

Have we forgotten that in the long run, the essence of economics, business and therefore investing comes down to the simple relationship between...

Supply and Demand

...no more, no less..?

QED

luvmuhud 2nd May 2010 00:51


...and yet, nobody was able to identify and stop a simple house loan scam in the USA that eventually brought the world to its knees...
Outside of the mainstream financial media, there were probably dozens of analysts who predicted the US Subprime crises.....Elliott Wave International was one. Certainly, none of those were able to stop the destruction though. Governments have injected trillions of stimulus to delay the inevitible, and hence we have seen a sharp bear market rally in virtually all markets across the globe since last March. But, the underlying bearish mood is still there...until the deleveraging is allowed to occur on a sovereign scale, the markets won't bottom. I disagree that the world was brought to its knees.......I think that outcome is still in front of us.


Have we forgotten that in the long run, the essence of economics, business and therefore investing comes down to the simple relationship between...

Supply and Demand

...no more, no less..?
I agree that supply and demand ultimately drives the immediate price of an asset, but I don't believe that either side of this equation can be explained by a purely fundamental argument. When the price of oil peaked at $140, it wasn't demand for oil from the end users. Each barrel of oil is traded, on average, 27 times before it reaches the end user...so it is supply and demand within oil futures contracts that caused the spike, not because China needed the oil for its industrial revolution (or any number of other fundamental reasons for the rise).
Another illustration is the Australian property market, which I believe is in the final stages of a financial mania. Spruikers will argue that the reasons for a median house price so far above the average wage is purely supply and demand, which in the strict sense it is, but the demand is not there for the reasons that they will provide. The demand is driven by social mood, and the desire to build wealth through capital gain, or rental yield. As long as houses are being purchased with this reason in mind, and not for the practical purpose of 30 years of shelter, the demand will 'artificially' drive prices higher. This is a normal bull market cycle, but what is occuring 'down there' at the moment, is a mania as a result of extremely low interest rates, low lending standards, and an extreme of social optimism.

So, if using supply and demand to dictate your investment decisions, one must take into account where the demand is coming from, and the timeframe for your 'out'.....as with $140 oil, the 'decline' in demand may come much sooner than you think.

lmh

Tired_All_The_Time 2nd May 2010 07:59

Wall Street's Naked Swindle
 
Rolling Stone Magazine's Matt Taibbi has written an amazing article which exposes the truth behind the woes that are the American economy.
This article is really worth a read...
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/;kw=[3351,11470]
If the link doesn't work, just google "Rolling Stone Magazine", go to Politics: Wall street's Naked Swindle.
Illuminating!

FlexibleResponse 2nd May 2010 08:14


So, if using supply and demand to dictate your investment decisions, one must take into account where the demand is coming from, and the timeframe for your 'out'.....as with $140 oil, the 'decline' in demand may come much sooner than you think.
Precisely!

As with the $140 oil, supply was artificially constrained. Unfortunately for the suppliers, they could not get supply fixing agreements to stick for long periods due to their individual greed. In the longer run, the excess of supply over demand brought the price back to more realistic levels.

With any commodity or service, over the longer term the supply demand equation will always win the day and determine price. But, too many of us get caught up with short term market fashionable beliefs. We don't think far ahead enough to see the real story and macro-trends when formulating our investment strategy.

Bob Hawke 2nd May 2010 09:39

bulls n bears
 
All talk about the Bulls n Bears; now what about the chickens, where do they fit into this puzzle?;)

alvega 2nd May 2010 10:39

Time to go back in time and do some research. A good starting point would be the creation of the Federal Reserve Act in 1910 (Jeckill Island) and its implementation in Dec. 1913. Similar story with the Bank of England and any other central bank for that matter.

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws". -Mayer Amschel (Bauer) Rothschild

"I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, ...The man that controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply". -Nathan Mayer (Bauer) Rothschild

"I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated in the hands of a few men.
We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the world… no longer a government of free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men". -President Woodrow Wilson in 1913 after signing the Federal Reserve Act into law.

The crash is coming, this monetary system is finished. Look at Greece. Next on the line will be Portugal followed by Spain, Ireland, the UK (wait for the end of the elections) and then the US. The money printing frenzy, while giving the impression of a recovery will only make it worse. It's just worthless paper. Get rid of it while it's still (artificially) worth something, it won't last much longer. The Elliot Wave theorists and all the other trend manipulators are only there to lure everybody deeper into the money fraud. Trust them at your own peril.

FlexibleResponse 2nd May 2010 12:36

"The end of the world is nigh!"

"The world ends tomorrow!"

After a long and fruitful life I am just starting to think that maybe these naysayers have got it wrong....is it possible that I will serve out my last remaining days and not be witness to the end of the world as we know it?

Somehow history seems to record that human beings just get on with business after experiencing some of the most unbelievable events...

I have also observed that some of the best businessmen seem to be totally unencumbered with worries about the dangers of quarks and the Large Hadron Collider.

Perhaps we could help ourselves by considering not what could possibly happen, but what is likely to happen?

In that thought is the realization that we can do absolutely nothing about the consequences of what could possibly happen, but we can benefit greatly by taking advantage of foreseeing what is likely to happen.

alvega 2nd May 2010 14:37


Somehow history seems to record that human beings just get on with business after experiencing some of the most unbelievable events...
FlexibleResponse, history didn't begin on year 1AD. Moving back thousands of years you will see many other civilizations reaching extintion after arriving at the peak of their evolution and this is the history we have not learned anything from. We are there now and we are about to fall exactly in the same trap. in my view it is already too late. I hope I'm wrong.

FlexibleResponse 3rd May 2010 14:03

Perhaps you may be correct..?


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