Hotoffthepress

I feel the situation could be exacerbated by HKE. First new A321s to be received in OCT 22 followed by 15 more. I'm not sure if they're fleet replacements or for expansion. CX could always delay the deliveries, or incorporate them into CX fleet. Point being is they're coming. If the talk is real about pilots leaving CX, then the problem should be worse at HKE.

With the demise of Dragon, Cathay inherited an airline without the crew. With the eventual rebound in travel, they will come to realise that (hypothetically) operating 3 airlines whilst being short staffed will significantly halt their recovery/expansion plans. (Same occurred with the US domestic airlines, growth being delayed due to crewing shortage - I know it's a very loose comparison as I'm comparing the US Domestic market to HK International market)

As far as Cathay is concerned, they have achieved all they wanted. They have obtained financial backing from the HK Government, being deemed too big to fail - you could almost argue that the taxpayer has refinanced and effectively paid for HK Express acquisition ($4.93B). All are reduced to COS18. Bases are closed. Dragon assets inherited with consent from the CAAC. Short term, the gamble has paid off. Long term consequences are unknown but that's not really a consideration for management nor has it ever been.

Curry Lamb

Numero Crunchero

WTF are you smoking!! Your assumptions and guessstimates are based on CXit expanding. IF the company makes it through covid, and that’s a big IF, it’s gonna be less than half the size it used to be.

Hong Kong is contracting at an alarming rate, that even has the clowns in govt worried, and wait until the CCP bulldozes through the anti-sanctions law, which has been put on hold for the time being, while they “evaluate their options”.

Seriously it’s one thing being optimistic, but another being so naive to think that boom times for HK and CXi are going to come roaring back! Dream on.

Numero Crunchero

Hi Curry Lamb
actually i have based the above on zero expansion - zero.

As of 31/12/2020 we had 91 long haul a/c. Average annual hours for airbus/777 pre protests/covid was just a little under 700.
Big assumption: This time ISN'T different. That is - like the world has recovered(eventually) from every crisis in history, I will assume that one day, the skies will be as full as they were in 2018 say. Pick a year? 2024? 2028?

Anyway - looking at those 91 a/c (yes we are losing a few 777s - gaining a bunch more of them in a few years - but for the sake of simplifying the maths - let's use 91 a/c) - we need 711 crews - assuming all that flying is long haul that is 4 per crew so 2844 - this ignores management and check and training additions.

We need about 400 pilots or so to man the freighters.

So that is 3244 pilots - we have 2900 with another 100+ to leave as the list still includes based pilots in Europe and NA.

So if we expand to 3244 pilots then we will have enough to man 111 of our aircraft - the other 88 will need to sit in AS for a few more years.

As far as going broke - we were cash flow neutral in first half(still loss making as a business) and expect to be doing a lot better in the 2nd half. What the bottom line figure will be I dont know - but I suspect for the year the total loss will be around the 10B mark. And as far as I know they haven't used any of the Govt loan money as yet - I think they said there was circa 30B in cash+govt loan. So at the cash burn rate of the first half we would run out of money around December 2023 - assuming they can't tap Swire/CCP + Hk Govt for more money.

So do I think we will survive? Yes! (barring a comet/covid22/GFC mk 2)

Or you are right- and the sky is falling

Jnr380

Yeah the flying will go back to normal, everything will go back to normal except for being locked up in the hotel room at layovers, that’ll probably be around till at least a year after all travel restrictions have eased.

Curry Lamb

It already has. US can’t keep up with recruitment and have been cancelling flights due to a lack of manpower. Europe is recovering fast, and Singapore taken the lead in living with covid, as they realise there will never be zero cases, humans having lived with the flu for thousands of years.

Only delusional HK government (or the lack thereof) which drags down the whole local airline industry with it. Good luck

Coronavirus: Hong Kong ‘no longer’ in travel bubble talks with other places, goal to maintain zero infections
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...-travel-bubble

missingblade

Numero you base your projections on zero growth and a world recovery as has always been the case in the past.

However HKG and China looks set to severally stunt travelling freedoms for a significant amount of time still.

Even when we reach the mythical 70% vaccinated percentage there is no way they will allow free unrestricted travel in and out of hkg any time soon. It will be travellers from "low risk" countries only that will be allowed into hkg without quarantine. And that changes weekly.

Most of Asia won't be low risk any time soon.
So our local business is dead because the hundreds of thousands of holiday trips hong kong people made around asia and Asians to hkg won't be happening again soon. HKG EXPRESS is thus dead for another 12 to 24 months.

That leaves our transit business. Realistically within the next 12 months we should be able to go back to India/ Indonesia / Phillipines etc and go pick up thousands of travellers there to transit them via hkg onto USA /Canada / EU ( not Aus or NZ as they will also restrict travellers from high risk places for a long time still)
BUT the crew on these flights will all have to be closed loop....for possibly another two years or so. Good luck with that.

Then there's the fact that tourism from the west to China is a thing of the past due politics.

If the above scenario plays out the majority of the 777 fleet will remain parked for another year at least and more likely two years as our pax business will be half or less of what it was before covid....thus no pilot shortage in hkg for a while stil?

PS.
Question to management - what do you do with a 777 fleet when you realise it's been parked for two years almost already and it will possibly be parked for two more...?

Numero Crunchero

Hmmm - I am either not writing clearly enough or people are speed reading past the important bits.



At some point - next year - the year after - the year after that - 2028 - at some point we need a shed load more pilots. We do NOT have enough pilots to man our aircraft to the levels they were being flown in 2018 (pre protests/covid). There will be many "Missed Opportunities" (as a former manager called it) for the next few years.

Or you can believe that China will never open up again - and will never use HK as a gateway trading/commercial port again. That assumption only time will prove correct/incorrect. I choose to believe that the world will return to a new normal - just like it did after the GFC - just like it did after 9-11 when people said people will never trust flying again etc etc

MENELAUS

By which time you’ll be retired. And unless things start to move sharpish, with no domestic market to fall back on, and reliant solely on freight and traffic to and from HKG ( a destination getting less attractive by the minute ) the company will no longer exist. And open season for China Eastern/ Southern / take your pick / thereon. So the argument is somewhat moot.

MENELAUS

Assumptions. Assume this. Hong Kong is hardly the ideal destination that it once was. So why on earth would you go there ?
Roll up. Roll up. Welcome to Asia’s world city. Take advantage of our flip flop troglodyte zero Covid policy and enjoy 21 days confinement at your expense at one of our luxury quarantine hotels, as administered by the Stasi. Complete with food, plastic bedding and no facilities, and regular testing over a 24 day period. To no avail.
If that fails to satisfy then we’ll bang up you, your family, neighbours, your kids entire school year, and anyone unfortunate enough to have been in the same mall as you in Kzl Pennys’ Bay, noted for its standards of care, hygiene and cuisine. And ship your pets off to a pound.
Whilst here, be sure to avail yourself of our liberal banking and securities system. Deposit anything and everything here, and if you have even a tenuous connection to Uncle Sam, we’ll sequester it. And good luck getting it back.
Finally, please feel free to stress test our new security laws, rushed in we’re pleased to say with minimal opposition nor complaint. For there is no opposition. One harsh word about the Motherland and we’ll ship you over the border faster than you can say Deng Xiaoping.
I’ve not even begun to mention going there on POS 21. Which would bankrupt someone trying to feed, provide for, clothe and educate the average nuclear family.

Rie

Unfortunately there are large numbers of SE Asia and Subcontinent pilots willing to come here on POS21. If they can't find the quality they are after then the bar just keeps getting lowered. First it was iCadets now it'll be an AirAsia/Indigo/Lionair/Cebu child with a few hours happily taking over the reins. Happened in EK/QR/Unmentionable. Maybe the office staff will follow suit.

MENELAUS

If that’s the calibre of individual they’re after then good luck. They’d better install rear facing seats.

anxiao

I am reminded of Stalins comment when told of the far better quality of the enemies troops compared to his vastly more numerous and inferior army.

"Quantity has a quality of its own."

MENELAUS

He also said, inter alia, “Death is the solution to all problems. No man - no problem”.

controlledrest

When CX last interviewed about 20 'experienced' Indian pilots they ended up offering a position to one. He turned CX down as POS18 wasn't good enough. A lot of pilots have left the industry and the big schools have stopped producing at the bottom end. Wuhan virus will become endemic regardless of government policies. Air travel will return and CX will find itself short of drivers.

controlledrest

This is why recruitment was taken from FOP to People. FOP was being too fussy and target recruitment numbers weren't been met.

ThrustAssymComp

Are they really need pilots now?

Rie

That hurts my brain to read. But no they are not hiring. They have enough angered locals from KA and HKA that are willing to jump across for recency.

Memorylapse

No I don’t think they is. But I think they is being put under the pressure from IMD to employ some peoples to justify the work permit issues. Please apply - you sound like a perfect fit for the City of Kitty!

ThrustAssymComp

I don’t think they will approve my application since I only have CPL, even with 777 rating. And not a PR. But anyway, yes I applied.

MENELAUS

Yes. You might want to read a few books before the interview. Preferably in English. Not Esperanto.