CX offers Hong Kong pilots, cabin crew voluntary redundancy
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doublelift
It is interesting that although we now have no seniority protection in case of layoffs, the visa policy of HKSAR will now make CX follow LIFO, in sense.
It is interesting that although we now have no seniority protection in case of layoffs, the visa policy of HKSAR will now make CX follow LIFO, in sense.
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I remember the former KA GMO talking about removing allowances, ie housing, schooling, to pilots who were holding PR cards. His reasoning was that they were now ostensibly local pilots, and should not be eligible for expatriate allowances.
Ironically, this is now what has happened at cx. But without seniority.
I recon its a fair point regarding work permits. They should not be renewed in the current crisis. Local ATPL holders should be offered jobs as pilots in CX.
Ironically, this is now what has happened at cx. But without seniority.
I recon its a fair point regarding work permits. They should not be renewed in the current crisis. Local ATPL holders should be offered jobs as pilots in CX.
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Even if you removed all non PR pilots from CX they still have too many pilots thus won’t need to hire any PR ATPL holders living in HK.
It will be years before they recruit DE again and the cadet process will continue for SOs.
It will be years before they recruit DE again and the cadet process will continue for SOs.
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kahaha, it is one thing to be offered an interview for a position but I do not believe that every single PR + ATPL holder from KA or HKA should be given a free job. Holding an ATPL is one thing but being suitable for a job is another. Should someone deemed substandard be given sympathy for the sole purpose of PR?
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Even without autonomous aircraft the question might will be does HKG need a longhaul carrier?
It could be equally well served by ANZ,QF,JAL, BA etc etc. Many small countries don’t have a flag carrier.
The mainland market is well covered by 3 large carriers.
It could be equally well served by ANZ,QF,JAL, BA etc etc. Many small countries don’t have a flag carrier.
The mainland market is well covered by 3 large carriers.
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CCA
Let’s look at the numbers, bear with me here...
At the moment, CX has about 3100 pilots including almost 600 on bases. From its peak of around 3400, since October last year CX has lost about 300 pilots. If we assume full base closures, and say only 200 of those based pilot return to HK, that leaves 2700 pilots, less natural attrition of a further 200 between now and end of the year leaves 2500 total CX pilots at end of 2021 (excluding VSS and any possible further redundancies).
Now this is all very hypothetical, however if we assume a full return of worldwide and HK air travel in 5 years from now to early 2019 levels (pre protest), Cathay will need its 3400 pilots back, plus the void from KA, a further 500 pilots totaling 3900 crew by mid 2026. If we take natural attrition over the next 5 years at say 150 pilots a year, that is a further 750 pilots Cathay will lose by mid 2026. Plainly, if Cathay doesn’t retain or recruit many pilot until that time, they will only have around 1750 pilots available which means they need to recruit around 2150 new pilots up to mid 2026. Remember, at best Cathay has only previously ever been able to recruit about 200 pilots a year including local cadets.
When global travel fully returns to normal, and it will, there will be a huge shortage of pilots as those that have left will not have been readily and naturally replaced from the bottom as flight schools and natural pilot progression are currently stagnant and will be for some time. This will lead to airlines falling over one another fighting to recruit quality pilots and how many will want to come to CX on COS18 or worse when they can have their pick. I’d assume quite a few still in CX at that time will be applying elsewhere also.
So to conclude, if I was Cathay, one way or another I would be trying to hold on to as many crew as I can. However, we all know how shortsighted they are so hopefully there’s still someone left to turn off the lights by then.
Let’s look at the numbers, bear with me here...
At the moment, CX has about 3100 pilots including almost 600 on bases. From its peak of around 3400, since October last year CX has lost about 300 pilots. If we assume full base closures, and say only 200 of those based pilot return to HK, that leaves 2700 pilots, less natural attrition of a further 200 between now and end of the year leaves 2500 total CX pilots at end of 2021 (excluding VSS and any possible further redundancies).
Now this is all very hypothetical, however if we assume a full return of worldwide and HK air travel in 5 years from now to early 2019 levels (pre protest), Cathay will need its 3400 pilots back, plus the void from KA, a further 500 pilots totaling 3900 crew by mid 2026. If we take natural attrition over the next 5 years at say 150 pilots a year, that is a further 750 pilots Cathay will lose by mid 2026. Plainly, if Cathay doesn’t retain or recruit many pilot until that time, they will only have around 1750 pilots available which means they need to recruit around 2150 new pilots up to mid 2026. Remember, at best Cathay has only previously ever been able to recruit about 200 pilots a year including local cadets.
When global travel fully returns to normal, and it will, there will be a huge shortage of pilots as those that have left will not have been readily and naturally replaced from the bottom as flight schools and natural pilot progression are currently stagnant and will be for some time. This will lead to airlines falling over one another fighting to recruit quality pilots and how many will want to come to CX on COS18 or worse when they can have their pick. I’d assume quite a few still in CX at that time will be applying elsewhere also.
So to conclude, if I was Cathay, one way or another I would be trying to hold on to as many crew as I can. However, we all know how shortsighted they are so hopefully there’s still someone left to turn off the lights by then.
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Pretty good breakdown, TTW.
Obviously the company are stuck between a rock & a hard place for now - haemorrhaging cash; so it’s prudent to shave costs where you can, but the cost of lost business down the line dwarfs our poor salary.
Obviously HK needs to open up at some point for that to manifest, but if it doesn’t, no amount of cost-cutting will see CX through.
Obviously the company are stuck between a rock & a hard place for now - haemorrhaging cash; so it’s prudent to shave costs where you can, but the cost of lost business down the line dwarfs our poor salary.
Obviously HK needs to open up at some point for that to manifest, but if it doesn’t, no amount of cost-cutting will see CX through.
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CX in the 80s was very profitable with a much smaller footprint and higher crew costs.
Scanario 1: operate only routes that are profitable rather than ones that contribute.
Scenario 2: as above and sell it.
Scenario 3: resurrect the whole shooting match ex covid and sell it.
Scenario 4: resurrect cx as was and keep it instead of investing the dosh in property, insurance etc
Take your pick but I’d rather not own the airline stock.
Scanario 1: operate only routes that are profitable rather than ones that contribute.
Scenario 2: as above and sell it.
Scenario 3: resurrect the whole shooting match ex covid and sell it.
Scenario 4: resurrect cx as was and keep it instead of investing the dosh in property, insurance etc
Take your pick but I’d rather not own the airline stock.
Last edited by Walkingthedog; 1st May 2021 at 09:58.
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TimeToWhine
CXi will NEVER return to pre china virus levels. They will survive, but it’s gonna be an insignificant little airline, flying cargo and low cost punters out of a mainland city, called Hong Kong, in competition with Greater Bay Airlines and whichever other LCCs will be operating in/out of CLK.
Anyone thinking or hoping otherwise: dream on!
CXi will NEVER return to pre china virus levels. They will survive, but it’s gonna be an insignificant little airline, flying cargo and low cost punters out of a mainland city, called Hong Kong, in competition with Greater Bay Airlines and whichever other LCCs will be operating in/out of CLK.
Anyone thinking or hoping otherwise: dream on!
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Dingleberry Handpump
And therein lies the problem. A decision now that may look good for the short term, and earn the playmaker their golden bonus, can have dire consequences down the track. However, with the way the Cathay and Swire management structure works, those managers who make these decisions now will have moved up the ladder 2 positions by then and it will be someone else’s problem to deal with.
And therein lies the problem. A decision now that may look good for the short term, and earn the playmaker their golden bonus, can have dire consequences down the track. However, with the way the Cathay and Swire management structure works, those managers who make these decisions now will have moved up the ladder 2 positions by then and it will be someone else’s problem to deal with.
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Curry Lamb
Yes, CX may very well not return to normal levels, but HK and global traffic will. Someone has to fly the punters and freight in and out. Whether it’s CX, GBA, HKA, Air China Hong Kong, or Cannot Airlines, unless the future reliance is on foreign carriers, HK as a whole will still need a large number of pilots that they won’t be able to readily pull from the local population.
Yes, CX may very well not return to normal levels, but HK and global traffic will. Someone has to fly the punters and freight in and out. Whether it’s CX, GBA, HKA, Air China Hong Kong, or Cannot Airlines, unless the future reliance is on foreign carriers, HK as a whole will still need a large number of pilots that they won’t be able to readily pull from the local population.
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TTW....I think you are ignoring the other story that has unfolded undercover of COVID. The destruction of HK democracy by Beijing significantly changes how future travellers will view it. I really think you are clutching at straws if you think HK will ever return to its former glory.
And the only realistic outcome for CX is inevitable as a result. Good luck.
And the only realistic outcome for CX is inevitable as a result. Good luck.
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Table For 1
Though Hk probably wont go back to it’s glory days, as long as HK keeps it’s function as China’s money “backdoor, there should be signifcant enough air travel in the future for cathay to survive when things pick up again.
I highly doubt the destination’s democracy has any serious implications to travellers, ie. all the people traveling to the middle east, china, north korea etc
Though Hk probably wont go back to it’s glory days, as long as HK keeps it’s function as China’s money “backdoor, there should be signifcant enough air travel in the future for cathay to survive when things pick up again.
I highly doubt the destination’s democracy has any serious implications to travellers, ie. all the people traveling to the middle east, china, north korea etc
