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CX offers Hong Kong pilots, cabin crew voluntary redundancy

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

CX offers Hong Kong pilots, cabin crew voluntary redundancy

Old 30th Apr 2021, 06:59
  #41 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 108
Jetdream

Not that they will be cancelled just no renewals and that any more involuntary redundancies are rumoured to be forced to come from work-permit holders (even if they aren't expired) first before anyone else can be made redundant. And obviously no new ones issued, why you see what's happening with the bases.
LLLQNH is offline  
Old 30th Apr 2021, 07:52
  #42 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: HK
Posts: 24
It is actually very make sense for the company to sack the Visa holder first, if the IMMD has made a decision not to renew the pilot visa. It could be 2-3 years from now for cathay to fully utilize all the pilot again, by that time most of the visa holder would have their visa expired. All the training cost in this 2-3 years will be wasted, and the pilot are being paid to sit at home for doing nothing.
doublelift is offline  
Old 30th Apr 2021, 09:52
  #43 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Fragrant Harbour
Posts: 4,750
What happens if your current permit takes you over 7 years?
You have to apply for PR when you have achieved the seven years. I suspect PR will not be granted.
Dan Winterland is offline  
Old 30th Apr 2021, 10:51
  #44 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 410
correct.They will check if you are 'reliable' candidate first.
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 12:27
  #45 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Hong Kong, SAR.
Posts: 89
doublelift

It is interesting that although we now have no seniority protection in case of layoffs, the visa policy of HKSAR will now make CX follow LIFO, in sense.
Oasis is offline  
Old 30th Apr 2021, 13:04
  #46 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 38
Dan Winterland

Actually you start the application process 3 months before you reach your PR date.
Memorylapse is offline  
Old 30th Apr 2021, 19:40
  #47 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: china
Age: 51
Posts: 87
I remember the former KA GMO talking about removing allowances, ie housing, schooling, to pilots who were holding PR cards. His reasoning was that they were now ostensibly local pilots, and should not be eligible for expatriate allowances.

Ironically, this is now what has happened at cx. But without seniority.

I recon its a fair point regarding work permits. They should not be renewed in the current crisis. Local ATPL holders should be offered jobs as pilots in CX.
kahaha is offline  
Old 30th Apr 2021, 23:12
  #48 (permalink)  
CCA
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: Up there
Posts: 186
Even if you removed all non PR pilots from CX they still have too many pilots thus won’t need to hire any PR ATPL holders living in HK.

It will be years before they recruit DE again and the cadet process will continue for SOs.
CCA is offline  
Old 1st May 2021, 01:42
  #49 (permalink)  
Rie
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: Wan Chai
Posts: 144
kahaha, it is one thing to be offered an interview for a position but I do not believe that every single PR + ATPL holder from KA or HKA should be given a free job. Holding an ATPL is one thing but being suitable for a job is another. Should someone deemed substandard be given sympathy for the sole purpose of PR?
Rie is offline  
Old 1st May 2021, 01:57
  #50 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: HK
Posts: 24
CCA

But the hiring will come much faster when rebounce happen
doublelift is offline  
Old 1st May 2021, 02:44
  #51 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: The Forbidden City
Posts: 122
By that time there will be self-flying planes, which negates the need for pilots. Autonomous cargo planes are only a few years away, to be followed by the rest.
Curry Lamb is offline  
Old 1st May 2021, 02:58
  #52 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: HKG
Posts: 59
Even without autonomous aircraft the question might will be does HKG need a longhaul carrier?
It could be equally well served by ANZ,QF,JAL, BA etc etc. Many small countries don’t have a flag carrier.
The mainland market is well covered by 3 large carriers.
Walkingthedog is offline  
Old 1st May 2021, 04:17
  #53 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Lavatory
Posts: 33
CCA

Let’s look at the numbers, bear with me here...

At the moment, CX has about 3100 pilots including almost 600 on bases. From its peak of around 3400, since October last year CX has lost about 300 pilots. If we assume full base closures, and say only 200 of those based pilot return to HK, that leaves 2700 pilots, less natural attrition of a further 200 between now and end of the year leaves 2500 total CX pilots at end of 2021 (excluding VSS and any possible further redundancies).

Now this is all very hypothetical, however if we assume a full return of worldwide and HK air travel in 5 years from now to early 2019 levels (pre protest), Cathay will need its 3400 pilots back, plus the void from KA, a further 500 pilots totaling 3900 crew by mid 2026. If we take natural attrition over the next 5 years at say 150 pilots a year, that is a further 750 pilots Cathay will lose by mid 2026. Plainly, if Cathay doesn’t retain or recruit many pilot until that time, they will only have around 1750 pilots available which means they need to recruit around 2150 new pilots up to mid 2026. Remember, at best Cathay has only previously ever been able to recruit about 200 pilots a year including local cadets.

When global travel fully returns to normal, and it will, there will be a huge shortage of pilots as those that have left will not have been readily and naturally replaced from the bottom as flight schools and natural pilot progression are currently stagnant and will be for some time. This will lead to airlines falling over one another fighting to recruit quality pilots and how many will want to come to CX on COS18 or worse when they can have their pick. I’d assume quite a few still in CX at that time will be applying elsewhere also.

So to conclude, if I was Cathay, one way or another I would be trying to hold on to as many crew as I can. However, we all know how shortsighted they are so hopefully there’s still someone left to turn off the lights by then.
TimeToWhine is offline  
Old 1st May 2021, 04:58
  #54 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2021
Location: Hk
Posts: 15
Pretty good breakdown, TTW.

Obviously the company are stuck between a rock & a hard place for now - haemorrhaging cash; so it’s prudent to shave costs where you can, but the cost of lost business down the line dwarfs our poor salary.

Obviously HK needs to open up at some point for that to manifest, but if it doesn’t, no amount of cost-cutting will see CX through.
Dingleberry Handpump is offline  
Old 1st May 2021, 05:32
  #55 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: HKG
Posts: 59
CX in the 80s was very profitable with a much smaller footprint and higher crew costs.
Scanario 1: operate only routes that are profitable rather than ones that contribute.
Scenario 2: as above and sell it.
Scenario 3: resurrect the whole shooting match ex covid and sell it.
Scenario 4: resurrect cx as was and keep it instead of investing the dosh in property, insurance etc

Take your pick but I’d rather not own the airline stock.

Last edited by Walkingthedog; 1st May 2021 at 09:58.
Walkingthedog is offline  
Old 1st May 2021, 05:35
  #56 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: The Forbidden City
Posts: 122
TimeToWhine

CXi will NEVER return to pre china virus levels. They will survive, but it’s gonna be an insignificant little airline, flying cargo and low cost punters out of a mainland city, called Hong Kong, in competition with Greater Bay Airlines and whichever other LCCs will be operating in/out of CLK.

Anyone thinking or hoping otherwise: dream on!
Curry Lamb is offline  
Old 1st May 2021, 05:35
  #57 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 41
CX management (albeit being the slowest form of animal on the planet) have woken up far too late. The HK government took so many gambles on the economy & travel to pick up from their so called experts in white jackets that they now have no choices left. Emirates acted quickly and ruthlessly, which is business. CX dragged their feet and fumbled around the butt hole looking at what to do with the whole thing. Return aircraft, cancel / postpone orders, retrench crew, it should have been done almost a year ago and we all know it. We are extremely lucky to have been paid for not working for over a year, and we knew inside that the chop would come. If I was a non PR I would take the offer, not risk even less or nothing a few months down the line. CX will choose the cream of the crop, they'll look at your training / crew file and decide who they want to lead this airline, so if you have a mark against your name and aren't a pure perfect company man with no mistakes, then the writings on the wall and the door is there. Travel will pick up, it always does, but not for a few years, and when they do want to hire they will be very very cautious so as not to get burnt again. The 777 fleet will be decimated, even the 777 PR's, there is no escaping it. It pains me to leave, but I knew it was coming.

A few of us started to run little business or do odd jobs to keep our sanity and some extra cash flow, hats off to you, but it doesn't pay all the bills and allow me to stay in the city when I get retrenched. It's painful to leave this city, but no one can afford to live here hoping things will bounce back, you'll bankrupt yourself. Time to go "home" and do something else for a few years until things return. I for one won't mind coming back, I had a great time.

Tearful rant over..
Oli777 is offline  
Old 1st May 2021, 06:05
  #58 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Lavatory
Posts: 33
Dingleberry Handpump

And therein lies the problem. A decision now that may look good for the short term, and earn the playmaker their golden bonus, can have dire consequences down the track. However, with the way the Cathay and Swire management structure works, those managers who make these decisions now will have moved up the ladder 2 positions by then and it will be someone else’s problem to deal with.
TimeToWhine is offline  
Old 1st May 2021, 06:15
  #59 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Lavatory
Posts: 33
Curry Lamb

Yes, CX may very well not return to normal levels, but HK and global traffic will. Someone has to fly the punters and freight in and out. Whether it’s CX, GBA, HKA, Air China Hong Kong, or Cannot Airlines, unless the future reliance is on foreign carriers, HK as a whole will still need a large number of pilots that they won’t be able to readily pull from the local population.
TimeToWhine is offline  
Old 1st May 2021, 06:36
  #60 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Happy Valley
Age: 45
Posts: 41
TTW....I think you are ignoring the other story that has unfolded undercover of COVID. The destruction of HK democracy by Beijing significantly changes how future travellers will view it. I really think you are clutching at straws if you think HK will ever return to its former glory.

And the only realistic outcome for CX is inevitable as a result. Good luck.
Table For 1 is offline  

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