Air Crew Quarantine
Thread Starter
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: Wan Chai
Posts: 394
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Hugo, Half the people in Hong Kong know of someone who breached quarantine rules when it was still house arrest or someone who doesn't care about going for a little party when under medical surveillance. Putting it on social media for the government and company to see is just insanity especially when job cuts are looming.
You can liken it to the people who stormed the Capitol building and posted about it before being arrested. I am not saying these people are fine to do this, they are oxygen thieves as they cannot follow a simple order. The main thing is if you do such things then why incriminate yourself on social media?
You can liken it to the people who stormed the Capitol building and posted about it before being arrested. I am not saying these people are fine to do this, they are oxygen thieves as they cannot follow a simple order. The main thing is if you do such things then why incriminate yourself on social media?
Thread Starter
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: Wan Chai
Posts: 394
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It's all under CAP599. The same one meaning we cannot have dinner past 6pm. The group gathering law is only applicable under a public place. So any group gathering in private residence is not restricted.
Prohibition on group gathering during specified period
(1)
The following group gatherings are prohibited from taking place during a specified period—
(a)
a group gathering at a public place other than Cap. 599Fpremises; and
(b)
a group gathering at any Cap. 599F premises in relation to which a relevant requirement or restriction is not complied with.
(L.N. 223 of 2020)]
(1)
The following group gatherings are prohibited from taking place during a specified period—
(a)
a group gathering at a public place other than Cap. 599Fpremises; and
(b)
a group gathering at any Cap. 599F premises in relation to which a relevant requirement or restriction is not complied with.
(L.N. 223 of 2020)]
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Shh..
Posts: 95
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
this is exactly why the virus is still spreading when no one takes self discipline in social distancing. look at NZ and AU, all the private gathering rules past few months, look at Singapore... and then you see your mates' instagram gathering in big home parties...
Join Date: May 2004
Location: 3.5 from TD
Age: 47
Posts: 1,042
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Karen, all these places are doing is delaying the inevitable. They can isolate to to their borders, but they are just preventing herd immunity and will go through the same spikes later on.
short flights long nights
Herd Immunity seems to be working really well in the UK..... not.
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 55
Posts: 501
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"Herd immunity" is a euphemism. What those who propose it as a strategy really mean is survival of the fittest. Now, that could well be the reality in the end, depending on the success of vaccines, but maybe a more transparent communication would be more honest..
https://www.newscientist.com/article...t-be-possible/
https://www.newscientist.com/article...t-be-possible/
Thread Starter
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: Wan Chai
Posts: 394
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Well that email solidifies what we feared, it looks like we have the answer. It is no longer a rumour but a reality to face shortly. 5 weeks on 2 weeks off. Finally a commuting roster?
Herd immunity" is a euphemism.
No, it is an effect that is seen in longitudinal epidemiological studies. As the population that can be further infected diminishes the opportunity for transmission reduces and the case rate therefore drops off. At some point general transmission ceases, but reservoirs may remain.
What those who propose it as a strategy really mean is survival of the fittest.
Maybe, maybe not. CFR will tend to increase as societies ability to mitigate the illness is overtaxed. Countervailing issue is slowing rates by drawing out the timeline has consequences that may also result in loss from other matters; depression/violence/suicide/health effects associated with increased poverty, etc. Mutation is not directly a time effect, it is related to the cycles of infection that occur, the probability of a replication error, and the probability that the error is viable.
Disciplied personal hygiene remains the most effective infection control measure, which includes reducing contact opportunities. Vaccination will alter transmission rates, but to be globally significant the combination of resiatance (# vaccination x vaccine efficacy) + hygiene measures (contact reduction, PPE, fomite control etc) has to impact somewhere between 75 and 85% of the population. That includes all population, children, teenagers, youngbadukts etc, not just the aged, infirm or those with co-morbidities.
CFRs continue to be underreported due to methodology, the cases that result in current fatalities are those from 10 to 30 days before, not todays number of total cases. That suggeats that the true CFR in the cold light of day is around 3 to 4 times higher than the reported figure, enough to be a problem. Counter to that, the total cases are much higher than the detected cases, so, the realnrate will be determined in future post event analysis, and that could be higher or lower tham current reported cases. Early on, the undetected cases were around 20 x reported cases, they dropped off to around 10 x innthe last Q of 2020, now... Probably lower again.
Sucks
No, it is an effect that is seen in longitudinal epidemiological studies. As the population that can be further infected diminishes the opportunity for transmission reduces and the case rate therefore drops off. At some point general transmission ceases, but reservoirs may remain.
What those who propose it as a strategy really mean is survival of the fittest.
Maybe, maybe not. CFR will tend to increase as societies ability to mitigate the illness is overtaxed. Countervailing issue is slowing rates by drawing out the timeline has consequences that may also result in loss from other matters; depression/violence/suicide/health effects associated with increased poverty, etc. Mutation is not directly a time effect, it is related to the cycles of infection that occur, the probability of a replication error, and the probability that the error is viable.
Disciplied personal hygiene remains the most effective infection control measure, which includes reducing contact opportunities. Vaccination will alter transmission rates, but to be globally significant the combination of resiatance (# vaccination x vaccine efficacy) + hygiene measures (contact reduction, PPE, fomite control etc) has to impact somewhere between 75 and 85% of the population. That includes all population, children, teenagers, youngbadukts etc, not just the aged, infirm or those with co-morbidities.
CFRs continue to be underreported due to methodology, the cases that result in current fatalities are those from 10 to 30 days before, not todays number of total cases. That suggeats that the true CFR in the cold light of day is around 3 to 4 times higher than the reported figure, enough to be a problem. Counter to that, the total cases are much higher than the detected cases, so, the realnrate will be determined in future post event analysis, and that could be higher or lower tham current reported cases. Early on, the undetected cases were around 20 x reported cases, they dropped off to around 10 x innthe last Q of 2020, now... Probably lower again.
Sucks
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: hong kong
Posts: 41
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Rie
I don't think it's quite as simple as that. This would have been closer to the truth on Cos08. But don't forget, on Cos18 you get zero credit unless the park brake is off. So, it's three weeks on followed by four weeks of unpaid leave, at least two of which are spent in jail. ;-)
I don't think it's quite as simple as that. This would have been closer to the truth on Cos08. But don't forget, on Cos18 you get zero credit unless the park brake is off. So, it's three weeks on followed by four weeks of unpaid leave, at least two of which are spent in jail. ;-)
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 16
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I had no idea I worked with so many people who actually believe the virus is the existential threat. The response is orders of magnitude more dangerous to working age people and kids. That’s in the developed world. I can’t imagine the suffering in the less fortunate places around here. Imagine starving children to get people another year of life. That’s the average years of life lost so far by the way, 1, per COVID death. Pathetic.
All you morons bleating about how herd immunity isn’t real, of course it is, that’s how vaccines work. The disease is endemic, its not going anywhere, and locking the world down indefinitely only delays the inevitable. We will all be fighting for food before we go back in time, to a time when there was no COVID. That is magical thinking.
All you morons bleating about how herd immunity isn’t real, of course it is, that’s how vaccines work. The disease is endemic, its not going anywhere, and locking the world down indefinitely only delays the inevitable. We will all be fighting for food before we go back in time, to a time when there was no COVID. That is magical thinking.
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 55
Posts: 501
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
https://www.newscientist.com/article...t-be-possible/
FDR: This is a scientific study of cases of multiple re-infections in the city of Manaus. In other words: herd immunity did not happen there, apparently the mutation was too different. Your argument does not include this possibility, you are treating herd immunity as a proven effect. It is not.
I am not an expert, I am not saying herd immunity doesn't exist, but it looks like it is uncertain if it can be achieved in the case of Covid. We simply don't know yet.
I believe a lot of people proposing herd immunity in reality see themselves as robust enough to survive an infection. It is a euphemism for saying: let nature decide, the weak and old will die, the rest will live. As I said, it may be our faith anyway, but I suggest to be more honest about it. Herd immunity has not materialized anywhere so far, even in countries with minimal social measures and high infection rates ( e.g. Brazil). On the other hand, so far the countries with strong policies and lockdowns suffered significant less casualties. Again, maybe the number of subsequent victims are higher in the end as with no lockdown, no idea.
Tiredofstupid, self-righteously simplifying a complex problem and insulting everybody around you.. after 4 years of that circus,maybe time to be an adult again?
FDR: This is a scientific study of cases of multiple re-infections in the city of Manaus. In other words: herd immunity did not happen there, apparently the mutation was too different. Your argument does not include this possibility, you are treating herd immunity as a proven effect. It is not.
I am not an expert, I am not saying herd immunity doesn't exist, but it looks like it is uncertain if it can be achieved in the case of Covid. We simply don't know yet.
I believe a lot of people proposing herd immunity in reality see themselves as robust enough to survive an infection. It is a euphemism for saying: let nature decide, the weak and old will die, the rest will live. As I said, it may be our faith anyway, but I suggest to be more honest about it. Herd immunity has not materialized anywhere so far, even in countries with minimal social measures and high infection rates ( e.g. Brazil). On the other hand, so far the countries with strong policies and lockdowns suffered significant less casualties. Again, maybe the number of subsequent victims are higher in the end as with no lockdown, no idea.
Tiredofstupid, self-righteously simplifying a complex problem and insulting everybody around you.. after 4 years of that circus,maybe time to be an adult again?
Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 26th Jan 2021 at 02:57.
That’s the point. They neither care nor think about the implications to aircrew. Knee jerk reactions to
the slightest of ill informed non empirical advice.
Still it’s a nice way of getting rid of that pesky gweiloh airline and letting CZ or China Southern steam in.
the slightest of ill informed non empirical advice.
Still it’s a nice way of getting rid of that pesky gweiloh airline and letting CZ or China Southern steam in.
