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When will this chaos end?

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

When will this chaos end?

Old 18th Jan 2021, 16:57
  #21 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: East Sussex
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3Greens

Much as I like your optimism, as of today UK Gov figures say approx 4m have received the first of 2 jabs. The first jab was 08 December when the initial batch of 800,000 vaccine doses were made available, this equates to an average of 100k jabs per day. Bearing in mind that for the first 3 weeks UK had a head start with Pfizer vaccine procurement as we were the only country to approve it, now we are in the queue along with many hundreds of millions in Europe alone.
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Old 18th Jan 2021, 20:47
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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the vast majority of U.K. vaccinations are now the AZ Vaccine of which supplies are ample at present. It’s not optimism, it’s realism. Slow start, which is understandable given the scale of the task, but know 350,000 vaccines being delivered daily in the U.K. easy to see on the gov vaccine tracker.
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Old 18th Jan 2021, 21:26
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Vaccines in the UK are a bit of sideshow though to be honest. Even if we roll them out well here the impact on aviation comes purely from how other countries manage.
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Old 18th Jan 2021, 22:40
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Reminds me of the painters on the Sydney Harbour Bridge (anecdotally) - as soon as they get to the end it’s time to go back to the beginning and start all over again.
Never ending jabs depending how long it’s good for?

Agree with your last sentence- this will be the crux of it and why it’s going to take years before things even begin to return to pre-Covid.
Our States in Oz can’t even agree- what hope trust and agreements established globally to allow free and open travel?
I also think there are a huge % of former travellers who will be too afraid to ever do so again in their lives.
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Old 19th Jan 2021, 01:50
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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A year or so ago the HK protests were getting to the point that the Mainland was probably about to intervene. They must have been concerned about the level and volume of participation in HK and would naturally be worried about the sentiment moving to Mainland cities.

Then around that time a virus appears that is highly infectious and the only "treatment" is stay away from other people, global lockdowns, stay at home orders, freedom of movement suspended, freedom to gather in groups suspended and the suspension of democracy even in democratic countries.

mmm???
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Old 19th Jan 2021, 05:10
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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omg Mill Worker... really? 😂😂😂
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Old 19th Jan 2021, 09:24
  #27 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
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Plastic787

Bingo.

Thats why I think optimism about international travel is misplaced at this point, unfortunately. You can see a point at which specific travel corridors may open. I do think in 2021 the UK and the USA for example may reach a point where vaccination levels are such that restriction free travel resumes. Progress is going to be slow and incremental though.

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Old 19th Jan 2021, 10:17
  #28 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
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Mill Worker

lol please don't embarrass yourself. Go visit up north some time, you'll be surprised at how much they trust and support their own government. They look down upon HK and the racist locals who called them 'locusts' amongst other derogatory terms. Rest of your comment is also ridiculous... just wow...
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Old 19th Jan 2021, 12:32
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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They want to actually retire the Cantonese culture.
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Old 19th Jan 2021, 14:45
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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I fear companies will get used to Zoom. If you replace business travel wherever possible with virtual meetings there won't be a full recovery post covid. This could hurt especially airlines like Cathay with a high share of business travel..
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Old 19th Jan 2021, 15:57
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Sam 😏

Bwahaa! Business travel? Son, pull your head back from the trees...HK needs free flowing INTERNATIONAL travel in whatever price class - to keep 777/Bus drivers employed. You think...50%? By end of year? ..........😏
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Old 19th Jan 2021, 16:37
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Not sure if I understand you. HKA has only international travel, and I was talking post covid..
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Old 19th Jan 2021, 17:31
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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We need those 777ís to fly those millions of people who will move to the U.K. back and forth for Chinese New Year.
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Old 19th Jan 2021, 23:49
  #34 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: North America
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This is the new normal according to the politicians in power. It only stops when everyone says enough already. When will that happen? Don't know. The "standard" flu has been replaced by Covid and it never goes away. How long has influenza been around for? Exactly.
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Old 20th Jan 2021, 02:48
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Officially HKSAR Establishment Day 01 July 2047 is when this chaos will end.
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Old 20th Jan 2021, 02:54
  #36 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
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Harbour Dweller

Yep.. We might get a few corridors open e.g to NZ and Vanuatu, Fiji etc. But to mainland Europe, UK, USA. Forget it.

Unfortunately politicians have been rewarded for taking the ultra tough line. Close everything is the mantra. Take no chances.

Given that, I want to know what happens for example if..

we or enough people are vaccinated by say October this year, international travel starts up and is almost back to normal by Dec 31.

then, just like the flu and other viruses, it mutates such that the current vaccines are not effective and a new modified vaccine is required which nobody has and will take what, six months or more to create and roll out to enough 70%? people.

Are the current vaccines completely useless? The annual , yes annual flu jab contains many strains and yes is annual. Get it..

will the ultra cautious governments close everything again... just in case the current vaccines are not effective enough..

Maybe those countries like Thailand where tourism makes up a much larger % of gdp will have to eventually take a risk.

and don’t forget international travel is more than business travel and tourists.

in Australia, international tourism is very important but we also have international students which are a second biggest export industry, over $25 billion in foreign fees etc a year.

interesting. Found this only minutes after my post...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art....html#comments

Last edited by Foxxster; 20th Jan 2021 at 04:13.
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Old 20th Jan 2021, 06:24
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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you think way too much.....
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Old 20th Jan 2021, 06:54
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Would mgmt consider taking an extended pay cut if things don't recover as fast as forecasted? Asking for a friend
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Old 20th Jan 2021, 07:41
  #39 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2009
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Managers can also be fired. The one to control is the owner. The owner could tell managers to take it or leave .
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Old 20th Jan 2021, 11:28
  #40 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Hong Kong
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Some good news out of Israel this evening, in a study done on hospital staff who have all had the Pfizer vaccine it appears as though their bodies produced an incredibly high number of antibodies high enough that they think the vaccine will not only prevent the vaccinated person from getting the disease but also more importantly stop them from spreading the disease/carrying the disease and giving it to unvaccinated.

This is interesting because it was uncertain if this would be the case and secondly because Israel is actually leading the way with the % of its population vaccinated to date! Hopefully the good news can continue and we see some positive news for our industry soon if this all turned out to be fact on a wider scale some of the airline industry might still be around this time next year!
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