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now KLM and Ba banned for two weeks.

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

now KLM and Ba banned for two weeks.

Old 14th Dec 2020, 12:17
  #21 (permalink)  
Join Date: Dec 1998
Posts: 93
The facts remain. The number of deaths compared to the number of cases (and that doesn't even factor in the thousands of undetected cases) is a very small percentage, and barely more than the flu. Further, it mainly effects the elderly and those with other co-morbidities. Protect them, but let the rest of the world get on with life and business. You can "count" me in the anti-hysteria camp. You may want to ponder one statistic: two weeks ago the UK Govt admitted that total deaths from all causes for the previous 12 months were statistically little different than deaths from the preceeding 12 months....
mngmt mole is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2020, 14:42
  #22 (permalink)  
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Nimbus
Posts: 98
mngmt mole

Where the hell do you get your information from?

​​​​​It is a fact that the mortality per case is much higher than the flu, not "barely" more.
And what are the chances of dying from the flu at 50?
What about at 60?
Compare that with Covid.

Look at the number of people dying in the US. Compare that to other years. Is it really the same as the flu?
The UK case: the total number you portray didn't include Scotland and Ireland, I believe. And don't forget that it is a number you get after lockdowns, social distancing, etc...
It probably reduced the road kills, for example.
It's difficult to quantify, bit If the country hadn't taken all those measures, they could have had the covid deaths on top of the "normal" deaths.

The perfect example are actually the US or Sweden, countries that almost have taken no measures.
Compare them vs the last 10 years.
Zapp_Brannigan is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2020, 15:28
  #23 (permalink)  
Join Date: Dec 1998
Posts: 93
You are entitled to your opinion. The covid situation, particularly in the US has been heavily politicized. Many of the covid "deaths" have been declared such as the hospitals receive a large payment per. Many such deaths were if fact due to other causes. Regardless of the actual facts, almost 99% of those infected recover. If you feel that we should destroy our economies, lose our freedoms and turn our societies inside out then you and I will have to disagree. As for where I get my info from, there is plenty of info available, both for and against my point of view. Oh, that means it's both for and against yours as well....
mngmt mole is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2020, 15:58
  #24 (permalink)  
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: uae
Posts: 2,711
Typical pilots , entitled to an opinion as long as yours is the right one ! Same as pilot financial advisors!
fatbus is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2020, 17:31
  #25 (permalink)  
Join Date: Dec 1998
Posts: 93
Hmmm, You mean "typical person". In other words, everyone has an opinion about something. You included.
mngmt mole is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2020, 18:21
  #26 (permalink)  
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: uae
Posts: 2,711
Mate , I've forgotten how many pilot experts I flew with . Always seemed they had to prove something. I laughed them off , couldn't be bothered with their arrogance.
ps I. Didn't let it effect the marks !
fatbus is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2020, 18:42
  #27 (permalink)  
Join Date: Dec 1998
Posts: 93
Objectively speaking Fatbus, it's your comments that have the air of arrogance about them...
mngmt mole is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2020, 19:56
  #28 (permalink)  
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: planet earth
Posts: 62
This is hilarious. The guy goes on about pilot experts always having to prove something, and then literally one sentence later is dropping hints about his own wonderful Checking abilities.
doolay is offline  
Old 14th Dec 2020, 20:01
  #29 (permalink)  
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Lo cat ion
Posts: 32
Fatbus is bored, most his co pilots have been fired, hes got no one to fail nor no where to fly. So he hangs around here, like the rest of us, bored and sucking our thumbs until the gyms open.
captain8 is offline  
Old 15th Dec 2020, 09:29
  #30 (permalink)  
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Here
Posts: 341
Swh, your assessment is not accurate people do not shop around at all for a negative result, upon testing positive by any provider it is mandated that you stay at home for 2 weeks in the U.K.
I recently did a test to travel to Dubai performed by Halo which sends its samples to Imperial College London, itís also the same test used by airlines in the U.K. I very much doubt its any less accurate than a government lab in Hong Kong. Itís entirely possible that Hong Kong labs are throwing up false positives.
Threethirty is offline  
Old 15th Dec 2020, 09:50
  #31 (permalink)  
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 120
Sorry just because it might be mandated doesn't mean people do it, there is little to no enforcement. Not like what we have in HKG, foreign governments should take note and follow the lead of the HKG government when it comes to enforcing isolation/quarantine.

The LHR flight is producing a lot of covid positive arrivals in to hkg and this will need to be addressed if the route doesn't want to be shut down; the solution is government testing on departure at LHR. It seems the remote testing or testing 72 hours before departure is either inaccurate or allowing people to contract the virus in the window prior to the flight, surely preflight testing for all pax at the point of departure is the way that air travel can get going again before we all have a vaccine.
LLLQNH is offline  
Old 15th Dec 2020, 10:49
  #32 (permalink)  
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Here
Posts: 341
The whole premise of the previous argument though was that a negative test could be achieved if you so wanted it, what Iím saying is this is patently false. I find it also unlikely that the virus could be caught in the interim period prior to a flight and then show up positive in Hong Kong, it would take more than a few days to register, or else why the need for a 14 day quarantine period in Hong Kong? Occamís razor suggests false positives in HK or false negatives this side, either way this is no cause to ban an airline.

Last edited by Threethirty; 15th Dec 2020 at 18:39.
Threethirty is offline  
Old 15th Dec 2020, 23:06
  #33 (permalink)  
Join Date: May 2012
Location: HK
Posts: 69

if you have look on the HK CHP site there is only a handful of positives scatter over time ex LHR.

most pax use the Collinson test facility at the airport but Collinson uses the LAMP test which is not as thorough as other tests.
JMock is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2020, 05:25
  #34 (permalink)  
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: uk
Posts: 354
Are you able to confirm or otherwise that Hong Kong are accepting LAMP test results? According to HK gov site, they still state only Nucleic test is acceptable. I have this same question pending a reply from Collinson. Any info greatly appreciated. Thanks
Starbear is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2020, 07:20
  #35 (permalink)  
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: A Higher Plane
Posts: 2
Yes they are.
As far as I know most BA pax would use the airport test. My family member certainly did.
ColonelSanders is offline  
Old 16th Dec 2020, 15:46
  #36 (permalink)  
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: uk
Posts: 354

Thank you for that, appreciate it. My biggest concern is CX check in staff at LHR if there is the slightest doubt. I will post Collinson reply when and if received. In the meantime if others have anything to add, especially personal knowledge such as the Colonel’s, again gratefully received.
Starbear is offline  
Old 17th Dec 2020, 09:49
  #37 (permalink)  
Join Date: May 2012
Location: HK
Posts: 69
for anyone with family travelling to HK I highly recommend the Facebook group , HK quarantine support group.
a positive and helpful forum chock full of real time info that will make the return as easy as possible.
Includes approved testing facilities from all jurisdictions and up to date quarantine hotel info including rip offs etc
and if things go tits up an excellent resource for Asia World Expo field hospital AKA prison camp for those unfortunates
JMock is offline  
Old 17th Dec 2020, 10:44
  #38 (permalink)  
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Here
Posts: 341
Swh: Thanks for the link, it also says this though.
  • A positive RT-PCR test for covid-19 test has more weight than a negative test because of the testís high specificity but moderate sensitivity

    Plus it talks later on about this:
  • Interpretation of a test result depends not only on the characteristics of the test itself but also on the pre-test probability of disease. Clinicians use a heuristic (a learned mental short cut) called anchoring and adjusting to settle on a pre-test probability (called the anchor). They then adjust this probability based on additional information. This heuristic is a useful short cut but comes with the potential for bias. When people fail to estimate the pre-test probability and only respond to a piece of new information, they commit a fallacy called base-rate neglect. Another fallacy called anchoring is failing adequately to adjust oneís probability estimate, given the strength of new information. Likelihood ratios can give a clinician an idea of how much to adjust their probability estimates. Clinicians intuitively use anchoring and adjusting thoughtfully to estimate pre- and post-test probabilities unconsciously in everyday clinical practice. However, faced with a new and unfamiliar disease such as covid-19, mental short cuts can be uncertain and unreliable and public narrative about the definitive nature of testing can skew perceptions.

    Does this throw up the possibility that HK labs are being influenced by a probability matrix bias?
Threethirty is offline  
Old 17th Dec 2020, 17:01
  #39 (permalink)  
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: wyoming
Posts: 242
The Hkg government should be punishing more the testing facilities who gave false negatives or even worse the passengers who just photoshop a test report using a buddies old report and changing the name, date and passport number. Going back to the laboratories and analyzing their performance and also the airline staff could call the labs directly and verify such and such person actually took a COVID test rather than just a photoshop copy and paste job. I am also suspect the crew exemption on sailors and seamen is keeping those sailors separate from society and stopping them from spreading it. Perhaps another method would be aircrew and sailors or any other exemption should be tested every 5 days to ensure they werenít a false negative.
WYOMINGPILOT is offline  
Old 20th Dec 2020, 09:21
  #40 (permalink)  
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: FL340
Posts: 47
Qatar Airways escape ban

It seems a pattern is emerging:
Those airlines that have connection with HKG are spared.
Those in direct competition with CX (and affiliates) escape on technicality.
I hope rules would be applied equally, and any loopholes plugged.
FlyingNun is offline  

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