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Our last month of "normality"

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

Our last month of "normality"

Old 9th Sep 2020, 10:20
  #101 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Age: 43
Posts: 977
Reuters following up SCMP report on 50% of CX Group fleet being "parked" until 2024.​​​​​​
We get enough of the sensational headlines from the press as it is. I could not find any mention of parking half the fleet till 2024.

In the article some nameless quote is:

​​​​​​Capacity continues to outstrip demand, and long-haul flights not expected to fully return to normal until 2024

Nowhere in article does it mention 50% of the fleet being parked till 2024.
If you are unable to read and understand something, why not just post the link without your own headline?
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 10:56
  #102 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 93
Originally Posted by SloppyJoe View Post
We get enough of the sensational headlines from the press as it is. I could not find any mention of parking half the fleet till 2024.

In the article some nameless quote is:

​​​​​​Capacity continues to outstrip demand, and long-haul flights not expected to fully return to normal until 2024

Nowhere in article does it mention 50% of the fleet being parked till 2024.
If you are unable to read and understand something, why not just post the link without your own headline?
Apart from the headline
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 12:40
  #103 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 52
Posts: 36
I don't understand how anyone could make a prediction at the moment. Too many unknown variables.
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 12:57
  #104 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 24
Piet, are you there? Please find Piet.
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 14:37
  #105 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
Posts: 4
Originally Posted by Sam Ting Wong View Post
I don't understand how anyone could make a prediction at the moment. Too many unknown variables.
Actually, every business has to make a prediction. They cannot just carry on hoping for the best and not preparing for the worst. Financial reality sets in and adjustments have to be made if businesses are going to survive. Thus far, CX has not done this. You may be glad, especially if you are junior. Yet, if it costs all of us our jobs because nobody on the ninth floor had the cajones to make a call, then I will be decidedly angry about that. I don’t know what stipulations are tied to the $5B from the HK government, but as of now, CX seems mostly like a deer in the headlights.
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 14:42
  #106 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
Posts: 4
Originally Posted by Memorylapse View Post
Piet, are you there? Please find Piet.
Why? You hoping to disparage him as well? Bet it’s a bit different for you in the cockpit...
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 14:51
  #107 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 52
Posts: 36
Cmon cxorcist, it was funny.

PS I predict we will be back to normal on Tuesday afternoon, Sept 23 2022.
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 16:51
  #108 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: HK-CRoC
Posts: 615
cxorcist - the bearer of bad news ?

I think not.. The truth hurts and those who don't want to hear it put on their blinders then bend over and squeal.. History will tell which group gets the last laugh even though it's very much not a laughing matter.
Sadly, as in much of life, we have little control over those directly controlling our working lives and, with the 25 year track record like the parade of bumbling buffoons at CX, the lizard part of your brain should be in full "FLIGHT" mode..
What do you call 25 feckless sycophants in one room? A CX China virus steering committee meeting.

#ChinaVirus
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Old 9th Sep 2020, 19:56
  #109 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Vermont
Posts: 53
Sorry, Piet was out flying.
Quite busy again this month.
They’re not parking my aircraft just yet, but if they do, I’m ready to go. You?
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Old 10th Sep 2020, 02:52
  #110 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: COS18
Posts: 9
Originally Posted by cxorcist View Post
Actually, every business has to make a prediction. They cannot just carry on hoping for the best and not preparing for the worst. Financial reality sets in and adjustments have to be made if businesses are going to survive. Thus far, CX has not done this. You may be glad, especially if you are junior. Yet, if it costs all of us our jobs because nobody on the ninth floor had the cajones to make a call, then I will be decidedly angry about that. I don’t know what stipulations are tied to the $5B from the HK government, but as of now, CX seems mostly like a deer in the headlights.
You are very right cxorcist, the business must act quickly to save all unnecessary costs. At this stage, this looks like senior 777 captains and FO's who are sitting at home on full pay and housing, while not having done diddly squat. How's that for adjustments?

LIFO? Never heard of her, keep dreaming.
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Old 10th Sep 2020, 15:19
  #111 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 1998
Posts: 5
Veritas, you can cram your excitement back in your little undershorts. It's going to be LIFO. A few other surprises are coming, but not the one you seem to be salivating over. I think the more junior pilots in the company are going to have a lesson taught to them that certain things do matter. Ultimately, it will be good for everyone in the industry for that to be the case.
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Old 10th Sep 2020, 15:50
  #112 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 33
Originally Posted by mngmt mole View Post
A few other surprises are coming.
Prey do tell...
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Old 10th Sep 2020, 16:28
  #113 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: All over
Posts: 156
Originally Posted by mngmt mole View Post
Veritas, you can cram your excitement back in your little undershorts. It's going to be LIFO. A few other surprises are coming, but not the one you seem to be salivating over. I think the more junior pilots in the company are going to have a lesson taught to them that certain things do matter. Ultimately, it will be good for everyone in the industry for that to be the case.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
If I understand your post correctly, it would be good for everyone in the industry, except obviously the junior pilots?
you guys crack me up🤣
the name of the game currently is cost saving... so why would you retain someone that costs twice as much to do the same job? surely that goes against all the rules of the ‘game’. Seniority? Really? Good luck with that.
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Old 10th Sep 2020, 17:40
  #114 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Fragrant Harbour
Posts: 309
Originally Posted by fly1981 View Post
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
If I understand your post correctly, it would be good for everyone in the industry, except obviously the junior pilots?
you guys crack me up🤣
the name of the game currently is cost saving... so why would you retain someone that costs twice as much to do the same job? surely that goes against all the rules of the ‘game’. Seniority? Really? Good luck with that.

I believe LIFO will stand as it is a contractual right. However, let’s say it doesn’t. Your logic is still flawed. Well, what do you think would be the scenario if CX would offer new contracts to everyone, something like COS20 and the majority of the pilot group would sign it. Now everyone within their rank cost the same. It’s probable that 1000-1300 pilots will have to be made redundant. I hate to break it to you, in either scenario juniors are the disposable ones. CX is well aware that those who would have been made redundant and decide to continue to pursue a pilot career will not be able to find other airline employment. As such it is probably fair to say that most of those who would have been made redundant will most likely be recalled to CX within 4 years, maybe even sooner. Many of the seniors who have had employment with other airlines before CX have experienced this.

The only way to circumvent seniority to a certain degree is to close those bases which have very senior demographics and hope that those senior officers rather stay in their home country then taking up employment in Hong Kong. However, same bases are more expensive to close then others due to labor laws and/or contractual agreements. As such it might be just more convenient and cost effective to renegotiate respective CBA’s on reduced terms to address the new economic realities.

In addition to the above, in general terms upgrades are expensive and downgrades are cheap, considering no type change. A FO can be downgraded to SO with no training cost, Captain to FO involves minimum training. This also applies to when the industry recovers and those officers return to their previous held positions.

Obviously, the 747 fleet has a bunch of DEFOs at the bottom of the seniority list, in case of LIFO those officers would have to be made redundant and this would have to involve immediate training and cost to CX as this is the only fleet flying a full schedule. A slightly complicated situation but maybe the NTC looking for volunteers to transfer from the 777 to the 747 might be just there to solve this dilemma. Just a guess and I could be absolutely wrong.

Anyways, restructuring is most likely handled by an external management consulting company, which will recommend necessary structural changes to the CEO/CFO and board of directors, who will have the final decision to make. Until then it’s all a guess.

Last edited by GTC58; 10th Sep 2020 at 18:25.
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Old 10th Sep 2020, 18:27
  #115 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: The Forbidden City
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Originally Posted by GTC58 View Post
As such it is probably fair to say that most of those who would have been made redundant will most likely be recalled to CX within 4 years, maybe even sooner. Many of the seniors who have had employment with other airlines before CX have experienced this.

This also applies to when the industry recovers and those officers return to their previous held positions.
What you are alluding to is furlough, which is not gonna work in HK, because of 1) Tax and 2) Immigration.

1) Tax, in order to get your full PF paid, you sign a declaration that you are leaving the HK SAR permanently.

2) Immigration, if you're not a permanent HKID holder, your employer must provide a letter every 2 years showing you're still employed, in order to renew it. Locals jobs be be protected first.

A new CosCov20 contract IS coming, take it or leave it, and if you do, the 3rd floor "wishes you all the best in your future endeavours."

Lots can happen over 4 years, me thinks most people won't come back, once the wife and kids are settled in, back home.

CX will be just another insignificant chinese player, a mere "mini me" of its former self.
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Old 10th Sep 2020, 18:51
  #116 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 33
Originally Posted by Curry Lamb View Post

1) Tax, in order to get your full PF paid, you sign a declaration that you are leaving the HK SAR permanently.
I think there was some guidance recently from the AOa on this matter. I have known people who have resigned, been terminated from CX and been made redundant (the massive office shuffle a few years ago) all of whom got their Pfunds however each circumstance was different some got it all some got only the vested portion and some paid tax on it and some didn't, including one fella who was subsequently rehired later at cx and got his pension when he was let go in full despite not leaving Hong Kong. Therefore I think your statement is slightly off and it very much depends on individual circumstance.
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 00:05
  #117 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: planet earth
Posts: 37
Seniority? Really? Good luck with that.
But why not by seniority? How are upgrades done?...seniority. How is Staff Travel done?...seniority.

I would have thought that the junior crew would welcome a seniority based system as it means when the next downturn occurs in a decade or two then they will be the ones that have job security. The alternative is a whole career of uncertainty every time the economy stumbles.
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 00:33
  #118 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: The Forbidden City
Posts: 41
Whole new generation we're dealing with here mate, the "entitled snowflakes".
Rude realization coming soon though.
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 01:02
  #119 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: All over
Posts: 156
Originally Posted by doolay View Post
But why not by seniority? How are upgrades done?...seniority. How is Staff Travel done?...seniority.

I would have thought that the junior crew would welcome a seniority based system as it means when the next downturn occurs in a decade or two then they will be the ones that have job security. The alternative is a whole career of uncertainty every time the economy stumbles.
i agree entirely. In an ideal world, Seniority should be maintained. However, practically speaking, you have one fleet that is being heavily affected by loss of airframes, it also happens to be one of the larger fleets, with a large crew compliment that are currently doing absolutely nothing, how do you expect seniority to be maintained in that case? there are a lot of pilots that are very senior on the redundant fleet. How would a company handle that? Transfer the pilots off that fleet onto other fleets based on seniority? And throw current type experienced pilots that are more junior off the active fleets, in the name of ‘seniority’? I don’t believe they have the training capacity for that, especially considering passenger fleet wise, the types are very different and would require comprehensive type ratings. Obviously they could transfer a handful onto the ‘ similar’ fleet, what happens to the rest?
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Old 11th Sep 2020, 02:39
  #120 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Rabbit Hutch
Posts: 90
In CX not only do we not have the training capacity to convert more than a few pilots B to A there just aren’t the line sectors available to do it either.
A bit easier in KA to go from bigbus to minibus.
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