Airlines Going Under
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I don't know what he's basing his numbers on either, but I think your view of the economy is bloody naive. CV19 was just the straw that broke the camels back, debt hasn't gone down, but risen massively since the GFC, which was a rise from the late 80s to early 90s, and so on. If it wasn't CV19 it would have been something else, the economy has been stretched to buggery because of debt levels so there was no room to move.
That there will be a correction on the level of air travel, I think, is a no brainer.
Something to read: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...t-and-history/
That there will be a correction on the level of air travel, I think, is a no brainer.
Something to read: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...t-and-history/
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Some other people get paid way more than the pilot payscale to take these decisions. I'm rather asking myself where are they now... and what's their prediction!
And i'd rather stay away from all what is reported over and over again on the media.
Be safe and stay strong.
Then if you read that we are coming up for a reckoning, and obviously consumers spending will be smashed and as a result of that international flying (more so than domestic) will suffer.
People also forget that aviation actually prospered during the Great Depression of the 1930s. New airlines created with considerable amount of capital being spent on new aircraft orders while most of the rest of the world's economies walked a slow death march..........................................Fuel-Off 
Anyway, my take on your assertion without having any historical material to go off. What may be the reason for your "People also forget that aviation actually prospered during the Great Depression of the 1930s" claim, is because maybe your data skews the outlook to that rosy claim because that is the era when airline travel took off, so off a low base whereas today we're talking about a very mature market, such that an airline seat is now a commodity like a loaf of bread and very sensitive to price. Pax numbers (when reviewing airport numbers from around the world) have doubled in 8-10 yrs (8 for the M.E. 3) and more so if you look at the last 30 yrs, while in the west households are heavily indebted (Aust. #2 or 3 in the world) with wages stagnant for the past decade while house prices have boomed. Globalisation has been good for executive pay and extremely wealthy individuals, but for the west the result has been cheaper prices for consumer crap and the massive loss of jobs that started with manufacturing that's has progressively moved up the food chain. Ask anyone in IT what their real wages are like compared to a decade ago, noticed those tax kiosks around the EOFY time at shopping centres? Meanwhile Atlasssian are busy bringing visa workers (so called Skilled Workers on 50+k) into Australia for around high 50s with 5+ yrs experience, a pay level that would equate to a new grad here. Ask a nurse grad if she / he can find work.... yeah nah..... too many visa nurses from Asia already trained.
Imo I think we have seen the best of times and it's likely to be a downhill ride for the next decade. I have a few yrs to go before retirement, but in general I've been bloody lucky and don't believe I've worked any harder than anyone else, street sweeper or whatever and I worry about what is being left behind for those coming through, by this this I mean every field of work, not just aviation.
Good luck, because imo you're going to need it.
My thoughts
Vaccine plus 12-18 months before countries start to open their borders properly for tourism as we saw it. I believe there is plenty of desire to go travelling, it’s the closed borders or restrictions that will stop it. That’s close to 3 years....
Internal domestic travel in countries where community transmission is controlled a lot sooner. But I really can’t see international getting to what....20-30% for years? I feel sick as I contemplate that but I can’t see it better than that. 15 years we will all have forgotten it ever happened, just in time for the next crisis.
Vaccine plus 12-18 months before countries start to open their borders properly for tourism as we saw it. I believe there is plenty of desire to go travelling, it’s the closed borders or restrictions that will stop it. That’s close to 3 years....
Internal domestic travel in countries where community transmission is controlled a lot sooner. But I really can’t see international getting to what....20-30% for years? I feel sick as I contemplate that but I can’t see it better than that. 15 years we will all have forgotten it ever happened, just in time for the next crisis.
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YF777,
"Who's to say it can't go alot higher than 24 trillion? " Well, I believe he answers that in the extract linked.
Edit: Btw, even if exaggerated it will still substantial damage.
"Who's to say it can't go alot higher than 24 trillion? " Well, I believe he answers that in the extract linked.
Edit: Btw, even if exaggerated it will still substantial damage.
Last edited by exfocx; 26th Apr 2020 at 13:12.
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The reality is that the debt stops growing when creditors stop buying US treasuries (bonds) and the fed’s printing stops creating capital liquidity due to (hyper-) inflation. That’s when the music stops and you better have a chair to sit on.
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Or a really good place to go. Perfect storm. The economic engine has been stopped by feckless governments, everyone is borrowing from everyone else, and everyone is printing. Don't even need a press anymore; just electronically add a couple of trailing zeroes. The Keynesian money tree concept has never worked.
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I think things will ramp up very quickly soon as the virus threat is handled.
The planes are there the pilots too .And I believe people will fly unless tickets become absurd and I think they won’t for long .
Being alive is about being optimistic.
The planes are there the pilots too .And I believe people will fly unless tickets become absurd and I think they won’t for long .
Being alive is about being optimistic.
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Reality
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I'm all about optimism. And fully understand the HUGE pent up demand of travellers wanting to go on their holidays once this is all over. Indeed, there will be massive demand, particularly from the Brits, the Mainland Chinese, and Northern Europeans
However ... ticket prices will not only be double to triple (think paying biz class for a crappy eco ticket), due to social distancing requirements, but on top of that, your average punter is going to be BROKE AND ON HIS ASS financially for the next few years. So unless you're a complete idiot, you don't blow what little money you have on a weekend jolly to Ibiza at 2-3 inflated prices, but save it for a rainy day like we should have all been doing for years all along. But we were too greedy. The sensible would surely opt for a staycation particularly with a caravan. And avoid flying at all costs.
Has anyone thought of buying campers and caravans up en masse in the UK to satisfy the coming summer UK market? Another business idea.... you can have that one for free.
However ... ticket prices will not only be double to triple (think paying biz class for a crappy eco ticket), due to social distancing requirements, but on top of that, your average punter is going to be BROKE AND ON HIS ASS financially for the next few years. So unless you're a complete idiot, you don't blow what little money you have on a weekend jolly to Ibiza at 2-3 inflated prices, but save it for a rainy day like we should have all been doing for years all along. But we were too greedy. The sensible would surely opt for a staycation particularly with a caravan. And avoid flying at all costs.
Has anyone thought of buying campers and caravans up en masse in the UK to satisfy the coming summer UK market? Another business idea.... you can have that one for free.
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People are craving for a change from quarantine and will absolutely start booking en masse vacations abroad. Nobody I speak to has any plans to reduce their spending on travel, on the contrary, they want to enjoy their life together with their family during a well earned vacation in a safe environment ( think EU).
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