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The end of Fragrant Harbour

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

The end of Fragrant Harbour

Old 7th Jul 2019, 01:47
  #21 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 99
Originally Posted by Small cog View Post
Quite honestly I don’t think some of you would be happy anywhere.
that’s the nice part, often I’ll talk to mates elsewhere about the crap they’re putting up with at their airline counting down the years to retirement. But back at CX everyone tells me how wonderful it is everywhere else. The grass isn’t just greener elsewhere it’s a lush paddock full of cheap hookers and booze and big TVs and footy. With the only very occasional day at work.

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Old 7th Jul 2019, 09:57
  #22 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 3,714
I can see that is you joined CX in the early '80's you were looking forward to a nice expat life with a full service "proper" airline for life. Many would have said that was being optimistic but you never know.

After the Brits agreed to hand back HK it must have been obvious that things were going to change big-time - not all at once but the direction of travel would be towards a locally hired workforce on very different T&C

There have also been the rise of China as an economic power and the vast changes in the airline business. CX is impacted by all of them

It must have been clear for the last 25 years that your T&C's would be changing constantly and not for the better. I just wonder why all the moaners have stayed - it can't be as bad as they say it is..................
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Old 7th Jul 2019, 10:18
  #23 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: GC Paradise
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There is now every reason to suspect that the Fragrant Harbour will come under Mainland Chinese Rule, much sooner, than later.

Mainland meddling with or influence over Laws governing Hong Kong, will eventuate in airline and shipping traffic through the port to rapidly diminish.

Cathay Pacific raison d'être for being based in Hong Kong will become rather problematic for the Swire parent and in turn CX employees.

Also, Cathay Pacific's continued existence in Hong Kong along with its "Freedoms of the Air" rights were and are included in, and subject to the Basic Law (Constitution of Hong Kong) and interpretation of the Rule of Law being based on the Western System of Law.

Interfere with any of that Constitution and poof...all expectation, confidence and trust will be gone.

Now it is just not a matter of if, but when..?
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Old 7th Jul 2019, 11:32
  #24 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 3,714
It's been that since the mid-80's TBH

Once the Chinese said they wouldn't release the New Territories this has been a one-way journey

I'm surprised they hold off at all - not many countries would in the circumstances
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Old 7th Jul 2019, 22:36
  #25 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: hongkong
Posts: 397
The fragrance will never change
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 03:03
  #26 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
Posts: 6
Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
It's been that since the mid-80's TBH

Once the Chinese said they wouldn't release the New Territories this has been a one-way journey

I'm surprised they hold off at all - not many countries would in the circumstances
Yes, and won’t it be wonderful when Communist cronyism rules the day and HK becomes like every other mainland city of 10 million people living nuts to butts in uniformity? Gone will be all the different cultures of SE Asia and expat adaptation to the ever-changing business environments. The new norm will be death by rules and Big Brother always watching, freshly armed by their new accomplices, American big tech companies. When the going gets tough, currency manipulation and forced technology transfer will be there to save the day. Whatever it takes to keep the ruling party in power, even tanks rolling across the new bridges to squash any public uprising!!!
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 05:20
  #27 (permalink)  
hyg
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: hong kong
Posts: 151
Whoever still got any fantasy about this place is really in lala land....

Look at what happened last night, police screaming at cinema goers in Mong Kok, people who just came out of Spider-Man getting screamed at and had batons waved at them by so call police. These thugs pushed passing by citizens onto the road and almost got hit by a car and then asking the citizen if he wants to go one on one.... Legco Members getting abused by police calling them to STFU when demanding to speak to a commander and assaulted thereafter with journalists. Where in the civilised western world do you get to see MPs and reporters getting attacked by the gov? These are all captured on video by the press, yet nothing is done....
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 06:42
  #28 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 53
Posts: 0
Nothing what you guys ever predicted came true.

Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 8th Jul 2019 at 10:52.
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 12:18
  #29 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Brexitland
Posts: 1,137
Why do you think Merlin and his Family have been down playing everything about Cathay Pacific and its previously elite and, dare I say, experienced Aircrew for the last few decades? Military fast jet drivers and Red Arrows have become Chinese wannabes who don't have any expat delusions and work happily for just another Chinese LCC. That's why I didn't mourn the passing of that selfish greedy Tai Pan called Adrian. Blood sucking leaches the lot of them and they collectively ruined a once brilliant Airline.
Get out while you can to avoid the rush. The Swires have already covered their asses and anyway have a nice little war chest for a rainy day of about £5 Billion.
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 12:53
  #30 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Posts: 76
Smart money is leaving quietly.. take advantage of the strong USD/HKD now and change it back to AUD/CAD/GBP/EUR or even THB if you're planning to retire there.
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 15:52
  #31 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
Posts: 6
I get a kick outta all the locals on here acting as if their lives will be better when the expats are gone. If anything, the exact opposite is true. Once all the expats leave, CX will be just like every other Asian low cost carrier, and HK will garner no more interest or respect than Shenzhen, Guangzhou, or any other mainland city. It will be a symbol of what once was possible with democracy and free market capitalism, but has withered into “lost opportunities”... HK isn’t what it is today for any reason other than colonialism and geography. Soon, the Chinese will make sure all of that is gone. Why be exceptional when you can be all the same?
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 17:57
  #32 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: England
Posts: 591
Originally Posted by cxorcist View Post
I get a kick outta all the locals on here acting as if their lives will be better when the expats are gone. If anything, the exact opposite is true. Once all the expats leave, CX will be just like every other Asian low cost carrier, and HK will garner no more interest or respect than Shenzhen, Guangzhou, or any other mainland city. It will be a symbol of what once was possible with democracy and free market capitalism, but has withered into “lost opportunities”... HK isn’t what it is today for any reason other than colonialism and geography. Soon, the Chinese will make sure all of that is gone. Why be exceptional when you can be all the same?
Be interested for you to supply the exact dates that Hong Kong was ever a ‘democracy’... Hong Kong before 1997 could best be described as a benign dictatorship under the colonial governors, with the Hongs grabbing the Governor’s balls and the Governor grabbing the Hongs in a classic we’re not going to hurt each other are we’ scenario.
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 18:30
  #33 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
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Originally Posted by Kitsune View Post
Be interested for you to supply the exact dates that Hong Kong was ever a ‘democracy’... Hong Kong before 1997 could best be described as a benign dictatorship under the colonial governors, with the Hongs grabbing the Governor’s balls and the Governor grabbing the Hongs in a classic we’re not going to hurt each other are we’ scenario.
All correct. The Brits, and the locals, got lucky. And wealthy. For 150 years or so. However, the fact remains that HK, and indeed the greater Shenzhen Bay Area would still be knee high in buffaloe shit if it wasn’t for a fairly enlightened administration.
I see the demonstrations harping on about democracy; what exactly would the locals do with it if they had it ?
PRC must be bricking it over contagion. That’s the real rub; persuading the billon or more residents not living in a littoral town or an SEZ that they will get the Bentley continental and the two air cons some day is the real trick. Let’s just hope they’re not tempted to come down and sort it out in their usual inimitable fashion. Game over then.
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Old 9th Jul 2019, 07:16
  #34 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: England
Posts: 591
The fallacy is that the CCP won’t do anything to kill the golden goose. The cohesion of China is absolutely paramount, and the smallest sign of contagion to the mainland will precipitate a major intervention... who is going to stop them?
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Old 9th Jul 2019, 11:39
  #35 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Fragrant Harbour
Posts: 4,763
The cohesion of China is absolutely paramount, and the smallest sign of contagion to the mainland will precipitate a major intervention.
The CPC will be acutely aware that the revolution which toppled the Qing Dynasty started in Hong Kong under the leadership of the Western educated Sun Yat Sen.

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Old 9th Jul 2019, 11:47
  #36 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Fragrant Harbour
Posts: 4,763
Smart money is leaving quietly.. take advantage of the strong USD/HKD now and change it back to AUD/CAD/GBP/EUR or even THB if you're planning to retire there.
The HK$/US$ peg is being backed up with HKMA reserves as it takes a hit from the trade war. This cannot go on forever. A de-peg will take a big chunk out of any HK$ savings. And then? Some experts think a peg to the CNY makes better sense, which will be a death knell for the HK$ as there will be little point with continuing with it..
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Old 9th Jul 2019, 12:02
  #37 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Gerloz
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Originally Posted by Dan Winterland View Post
The HK$/US$ peg is being backed up with HKMA reserves as it takes a hit from the trade war. This cannot go on forever. A de-peg will take a big chunk out of any HK$ savings. And then? Some experts think a peg to the CNY makes better sense, which will be a death knell for the HK$ as there will be little point with continuing with it..
Yes word is 35% of HKMA reserves. And we’re not talking small biccies here. Think GDP of a good sized country.
Not sustainable as you say.

Last edited by Globocnik; 9th Jul 2019 at 18:02.
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Old 9th Jul 2019, 12:05
  #38 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: The Twain
Posts: 206
And as was mentioned on another thread, the "requirement" by Beijing for the HK government to spend said reserves on white elephant infrastructure projects so there are not the massive reserves that there used to be, means that the HKMA will not have the means to defend an attack on the HKD. At which point China will support its compatriots from its own 3 odd trillion reserves and buy fealty.

Colonialism by debt is a well established technique by China in developing countries. Looks like they could do it on their doorstep...

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Old 9th Jul 2019, 14:08
  #39 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
Posts: 6
Meanwhile, the Mainland struggles with extremely low growth (~1%) as the trade tariffs take their toll. Xi is feeling the heat. Very interesting times indeed!!!
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Old 9th Jul 2019, 16:13
  #40 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
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Thanks Gordo. At a guess we are much the same vintage!
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