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Cathay Pacific posts worst first-half loss in at least 20 years

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Cathay Pacific posts worst first-half loss in at least 20 years

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Old 18th Aug 2017, 06:31
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Freehills , the only explanation that I can come up with for this fuel hedging debacle and the reason that heads haven't rolled .
It would appear that the board is seemingly happy with the status quo , in that somehow they now own "the stick it to you fuel company " who just happens to be on the other side of the fuel hedging and are buying fuel on the open spot market and selling to Cx at inflated prices . Otherwise why would you keep employees on who are clearly incompetent it just doesn't make any sense
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 10:16
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Ok lets try this way.... LOL

Discounted flights and hotel packages among Cathay Pacific?s bid to cater to ?price-sensitive travellers? | South China Morning Post
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 10:19
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Originally Posted by 27/09
No doubt they'll bounce back just like QF did after it posted a significant lose a couple of years ago.
QF bounced back mostly due to the price of fuel, not through the magic of management. CX doesn't have that luxury to bounce along with due to the disastrous fuel hedge. For me, as a long term CX shareholder who paid well over $20/share, the pain is going to continue for a long time. That is, if they can survive the long term.

I also used to be a CX Marco Polo Club frequent flying passenger. But when they try to charge $6,000 AUD for a one-way economy ticket DXB>HKG>PER they don't get me as a fare paying passenger any more. They are their own worst enemy.
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 16:16
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The next headline in the SCMP will be that CX has to furlough Pilots and Cabin crew for the first time in their existence. I am pretty sure they are already looking at the cost savings downgrading FO's to SO's. According to MH, SO's will be getting a P1 rating as upgrade times to JFO will be past the 5 year expiry of the P2X rating and of course for safety reasons on 2 SO operations.
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Old 19th Aug 2017, 06:20
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Can someone smarter than me figure out what this means

Swire 2015 annual report
Derivative instruments and hedge accounting
– Cathay Pacific enters into a high volume of derivative financial instrument contracts to manage its exposure to fuel price risk, foreign currency risk and interest rate risk. These contracts gave rise to derivative financial assets of HK$2,778 million and liabilities of HK$21,871 million as at 31st December 2015. These contracts are recorded at fair value and for the majority of them hedge accounting is applied, such that gains and losses arising from fair value changes are deferred in equity and recognised in the consolidated statement of profit or loss when hedges mature. The high volume of contracts necessitates a sophisticated system to record and track each contract and calculate the related valuations at each financial reporting date. The valuation of hedging instruments and consideration of hedge effectiveness can involve a significant degree of both complexity and management judgement and are subject to an inherent risk of error.

Swire 2016 annual report:
Hedge accounting
– Cathay Pacific uses derivative financial instrument contracts to manage its exposure to fuel price risk, foreign currency risk and interest rate risk. These contracts gave rise to derivative financial assets of HK$2,176 million and liabilities of HK$9,849 million as at 31st December 2016. These contracts are recorded at fair value and for the majority of them hedge accounting is applied, such that gains and losses arising from fair value changes are deferred in equity and recognised in the consolidated statement of profit or loss when hedges mature. The large number of contracts necessitates a sophisticated system to record and track each contract and calculate the related valuations at each financial reporting date. The valuation of hedging instruments and consideration of hedge effectiveness can involve a significant degree of both complexity and management judgement and are subject to an inherent risk of error.

CPA 2017 interim report:
HKFRS 9 “Financial Instruments” is relevant to the Group and becomes effective for accounting periods beginning on or after 1st January 2018. HKFRS 9 contains three principal classification categories for financial assets: measured at (a) amortised cost, (b) fair value through profit or loss and c) fair value through other comprehensive income. If an equity security is designated as fair value through other comprehensive income, then only dividend income on that security will be recognised in profit or loss. Gains, losses and impairments on that security will be recognised in other comprehensive income without recycling. With respect to the Group’s financial assets currently classified as “available-for-sale”, these are investments in equity securities which the Group may classify as either fair value through profit or loss or irrevocably elect to designate as fair value through other comprehensive income (without recycling) on transition to HKFRS 9. The Group has not yet decided whether it will irrevocably designate these investments as fair value through other comprehensive income or classify them as fair value through profit or loss. Either classification would give rise to a change in accounting policy as the current accounting policy for available-for-sale equity investments is to recognise fair value changes in other comprehensive income until disposal or impairment, when gains or losses are recycled to profit or loss in accordance with the Group’s accounting policy. This change in policy will have no impact on the Group’s net assets and total comprehensive income but will impact on reported performance amounts such as profit and earnings per share. The Group has yet to assess the full impact of the new standard.
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Old 19th Aug 2017, 18:20
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It means "Financial Smoke and Mirrors" my friend and they must be seen as numpties whose "mates" in the Hong Kong Club have difficulty keeping a straight face. "Don't mention the fuel hedging chaps!!"
Tee Hee…………..
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Old 19th Aug 2017, 21:59
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Lots of bets on future prices of stuff to minimise exposure to market changes, plus, laying off a few side bets to cover their arses on those bets, gambling on the future prices of fuel, currency exchange and interest rates. Bets split into ones they're winning and losing, these bets all have time frames, future winnings or losses, classed as an asset but the bets ain't over. 31st December 2015 not looking good, up 2.8B on some, down 21.9B on others.

Ain't bull****n what they reckon their bets worth right now, won't count their shekels till it's over though. Deferred equity means they'll promise something worth something till then, see how they're travelling. Running so many bets they got a computer, but takes ages to work out and wouldn't bet their lives on the numbers. Last bits an excuse, dunno what's going on, guessin the score, ain't their fault they're losers. Covers the Swire 2015/16 paragraphs, last bit CPA 2017 is a change in HK accounting practices, hypothetical anyways refers to dividends. Bull**** mostly ain't complicated, terms so you won't ask what you've asked, that ain't thick; gotta work out what business they're in.

Last edited by Strewth; 22nd Aug 2017 at 03:14.
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 00:35
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Ok so who wants to bet every cent you'll earn over the next five years where the price of fuel.. THE most volatile commodity...will be in 2023? With no insurance to cover the downside risk...
No takers? Didn't think so!!!
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 01:22
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Originally Posted by Strewth
last bit CPA 2017 is a change in HK accounting practices, hypothetical anyways refers to dividends. Bull**** mostly ain't complicated, terms so you won't ask what you asked, that ain't thick; gotta work out what business their in.
Do fuel and other derivatives pay dividends?

"These contracts are recorded at fair value and for the majority of them hedge accounting is applied, such that gains and losses arising from fair value changes are deferred in equity and recognised in the consolidated statement of profit or loss when hedges mature."

and

"If an equity security is designated as fair value through other comprehensive income, then only dividend income on that security will be recognised in profit or loss. Gains, losses and impairments on that security will be recognised in other comprehensive income without recycling. "

What exactly is ?other comprehensive income?? - IFRS

"Some of these items (such as foreign currency translation adjustments and changes in the fair value of available-for-sale financial assets) are recognised in OCI but are then recognised again in earnings when the underlying item (that is, the foreign subsidiary or available-for-sale financial asset) is sold or realised. In other cases (such as actuarial gains and losses and revaluations of property, plant and equipment) there is no recycling."

so they were counting them twice, and now they likely can't?? hah
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 07:08
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Published on: Monday, August, 14, 2017, 09:05 AM
By: Bryan Porter Source penJaw
The coming decade will herald in a tectonic shift in the mechanics of airline distribution, breaking the shackles of outmoded inventory and reservation management and embracing new retailing technologies acting in service of the consumer throughout the journey and ultimately her lifetime.

Over the next two to five years, we’ll continue to see a gradual erosion of the dominance of the GDSes, as more airlines embrace the IATA New Distribution Capability (NDC) standard, with favourable incentives for those agents embracing it, or punitive fees for those choosing not to.

As these standards develop and introduce new sales flexibility enabling airlines to own a greater share of the customer journey, innovation will be driven from outside of the airline itself, as a new start-up ecosystem marries these distribution protocols to rich media and vastly improves user experiences.

The increasingly indistinguishable OTA and Metasearch landscape faces disruption through the advent of standardised distribution and the potential emergence of marketplace platforms matching buyers with sellers and mirroring Amazon’s business model of infrastructure as a service.

During this period of proliferation, Google will be the biggest benefactor as GDS distribution fees become dwarfed by top-of-funnel search acquisition costs.

Direct distribution through Airline.com will continue to grow but for legacy carriers it will remain responsible for a minority share of bookings.

In meeting customer demand for broader choice, expect co-opetition as competing carriers offer each other’s inventory to showcase a broader choice to the savvy shopper.

With more than a billion active daily users across WhatsApp, WeChat and Facebook Messenger, chatbots will evolve beyond their ability to answer FAQs with full ‘conversational commerce’ emerging as the third pillar of e-commerce, alongside web and mobile. Amazon Echo, Google Home and similar devices combine this natural language processing AI interface with voice recognition, creating a fully interactive verbal shopping experience.

These developments will, in turn, place increasing pressure on airlines to innovate and differentiate their offerings - from simple tiered fare structures and a-la-carte ancillary offers bundled into branded fares - to more unique, tailored offers personalised for the individual traveller.

Traditional pricing methods through fare filing - by contract, O&D, market and RBD - will steadily give way to personalisation through artificial intelligence and machine learning, which will learn from the online and transactional behaviour of millions of people, mine data, and meet the needs of each traveller at every moment through all channels, signalling a new era of revenue management.

As the next iterations of blockchain and related technologies evolve to accommodate offers and transactions at scale, distributed ledger technologies will underpin billing and settlement, removing the costly process of accreditation for participation in a BSP.

The PSS will evolve into a full retailing platform for multi-channel distribution, with data ingestion, modelling and processing capabilities and a rules engine capable of structuring and yielding product per channel, per request.

A decade from now we’ll see the global population surpass 8bn people. The percentage of the population deemed “middle class” will rise from 30% to over 50%.

Revenue passenger miles (the benchmark for measuring aviation growth - one revenue passenger traveling one mile) are forecast to grow by 30% by 2027, and the number of aircraft in operation is likely to grow by the same factor.

This growing passenger base will become increasingly geographically diverse, driven by the emergence of second and third tier cities becoming ‘aviation mega-cities’.

Although the bulk of these gains will be made in the Asia-Pacific Region, the long-term growth outlook for global aviation remains positive.

While oil prices remain high, aircraft will become increasingly efficient, with narrow-body aircraft flying further, becoming cheaper and cementing the now established business model of long-haul low-cost carriers.

This trend will drive down the cost of long-haul travel, but low-cost business models will drive commoditisation, increasing the need for airlines to differentiate through customer service and personalised offers.

This will in turn put pressure on OTAs, which typically sell airfares as a commodity, with price the only point of differentiation. Tailored offers through prescriptive analytics and propensity modelling will mean customers will find the most relevant offers through direct channels or marketplaces that are able to assist the airline with third party customer data.

As the OTAs decline, so airline category advertising revenues dwindle for Google. With the emergence of marketplace solutions for travel, the balance will tip and intermediation will become more lucrative for Google than advertising.

During this period, Airlines will have to become sophisticated retailers, able to garner higher commissions from ancillary sales than margins from fares. It is likely that in certain bundles the fare will be marketed for ‘free’ as a loss leader for a bigger share of the travel wallet.

Spurred by the airline industry, hotel, car rental, ferry and other ground or transport providers will adopt similar standards for open distribution, bypassing aggregators.

The ultimate benefactor from these changes will be an empowered traveller, who will have more choice, variety, relevance and tailored pricing than ever before.

© OpenJaw Technologies Ltd, 2017. All Rights Reserved.
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 09:42
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Strewth
Your spelling of the word "Their" or "They're" makes you look a bit thick. Don't forget - the Swire Gods are mostly ex-Oxford University so one thing they're not is thick ( see what I did there.) Make your points using English properly or just keep them to yourself if you can't string a sentence together.
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 13:00
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Has anybody -- ANYBODY -- looked into the specific details of who is making money off of these huge 'losses' ? Where the money is going and who are the specific beneficiaries of the cash ?

I'd be REALLY interested in knowing how the money is moving around here. And what CXs actual holdings are and position is.

These aren't stupid people and I have some difficulty believing they would continue to make huge blunders in an area of specialty they've been trained. To me it might be akin to having Steve Fossett continuing to land gear up and collect the insurance on the airplanes he had scraped up. Not sure in that hypothetical case if it is a string of mistakes or a deliberate act.

I have no personal idea of whether this is a huge cock up or a deliberate transference of capital. It would be nice to know.
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 14:34
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If you want to believe the analysts and business publications CX has now the most leveraged balance sheet of any major airline in the world. More debt = being less competitive as the debt has to be serviced with interest payments which CX's competitors do not have or have on a much smaller scale. Cash flow might be a problem in the future without outside cash injections.

Everyone who thinks this is a Swire plot and Cathay is doing fine should get their head checked. Cathay has lost so much cash in the recent years that it will take over a decade in profits earning these losses back and bringing balance sheet debt to a normal level.

I believe CX will be a much smaller airline in the coming years, shrinking airplane by airplane or as some analysts believe will be experiencing a take-over from mainland China. Might it be Air China or someone else, as analysts find it very suspect that a mainland Chinese billionaire is suddenly buying every available CX share on the stock exchange. As soon as Air China and the Billionaire have the majority of shares or enough votes with convincing the other minority shareholders to vote in their favour it will be bye bye Swire.
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 14:45
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Sadly, either scenario is plausible.

Massive losses because of pure incompetence.

Massive "losses" because of corrupt management.

Neither would surprise anyone.
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 14:54
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Originally Posted by GTC58
If you want to believe the analysts and business publications CX has now the most leveraged balance sheet of any major airline in the world. More debt = being less competitive as the debt has to be serviced with interest payments which CX's competitors do not have or have on a much smaller scale. Cash flow might be a problem in the future without outside cash injections.

Everyone who thinks this is a Swire plot and Cathay is doing fine should get their head checked. Cathay has lost so much cash in the recent years that it will take over a decade in profits earning these losses back and bringing balance sheet debt to a normal level.

I believe CX will be a much smaller airline in the coming years, shrinking airplane by airplane or as some analysts believe will be experiencing a take-over from mainland China. Might it be Air China or someone else, as analysts find it very suspect that a mainland Chinese billionaire is suddenly buying every available CX share on the stock exchange. As soon as Air China and the Billionaire have the majority of shares or enough votes with convincing the other minority shareholders to vote in their favour it will be bye bye Swire.
In this case shrinking the airline will just make the problem worse -- due to our large fixed cost structure and leveraged position. Unless the debt would go with it which I don't see happening.
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 16:39
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The 'end game' for this airline has been inexorably approaching for some time now. I felt the turning point was when the new cargo building opened, just as the market for freight collapsed. Combine that with the new 'branding' (how many millions to end up with aircraft that barely look any different than they did before), a focus on 'sloganeering' (Time to Win, etc...) and you are left with a distinct impression that the end is drawing near. I feel pity for those of my colleagues who have committed their careers and their families futures to this company. I don't think it is going to end well.
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 16:53
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Well, if you want to believe some of the analyst research papers they are predicting a reduction to a fleet of 90-100 aircraft might bring CX back to profitability and the right size of an airline for the marketshare CX will retain in the future. The only problem, this would result in a reduction of nearly 1/3 of all pilot and cabin crew positions.
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 17:28
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The glory days of CX ended over a decade ago. The perceived 'brilliance' of the CX/Swire management has been uncovered to reveal the pathetic truth: it was only the monopoly situation they enjoyed in HK that allowed them to be successful. Once that was stripped away, it was apparent that the 'king had no clothes'. HK airlines, and a myriad of other low cost carriers, and overseas majors with better products and marketing, will undoubtedly reduce CX to a niche player, with a long ago tarnished reputation. The airline, as we once knew her, is done. For the individual pilot, there are better careers to be had elsewhere, certainly so when you consider raising your family in an expensive, polluted, crowded and increasingly 'chinese' city. The writing is writ large on the wall....it will be interesting to see how many of us 'read' that writing and act accordingly.
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 21:24
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With regard to pilots jumping ship . Even though the inevitable has been written large on the wall for some considerable time pilots have a huge inertia to leaving before the actual collapse of their employers. Pilots are reluctant to change employers due to the seniority based system of employment which will see them going to the bottom of their next employers seniority list. Their reluctance to leave is not a reflection of loyalty to their employer , who constantly holds them in contempt and continually erodes their conditions of service, but rather pilots hate change and the perceived uncertainty of a new job elsewhere. But the pilot community is increasingly becoming aware that there are airlines out there who want their licence and their experience and many pilots are now interviewing alternative prospective employers. The exodus is a trickle at the moment but as the pilot shortage begins to bite, especially in Asia which is seen as the world's major growth market, then that trickle must surely increase.
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Old 20th Aug 2017, 21:26
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When the dominant force of the brand is HR..and a fleet manager has to explain that a front line worker includes "you" the pilot… and a removal of a clip board represents a key move in FOP savings, irrespective of the square wheel EFB…and the product remains so incredibly flawed after the Time to spin campaign has become ..Old copy..that even our so called loyal pax are departing for other "brands"…the whole situation stacks up to a worrying pile of cards...
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