B748i or A380 order?

[geh065]

The A300R has an R that denotes a longer range but the A350's "R" seems to denote 'regional', just for maximum confusion.

[tdracer]

In either case, does that mean that the frames with all of the improvements and the PIP will now be exceeding guarantees? In either case, hopefully it means that there is a long and healthy life out there for the 8Fs, and perhaps even some room for the 8Is to find a role, especially in the near term.

My understanding is that, with the PIP, we're meeting or exceeding guarantees. And I'm also hearing that, with the notable exception of the Ice Crystal Icing, they are really happy with the airplanes. Fuel burn is much better than the 747-400, reliability has been good, and dispatch reliability is just shy of 99%.

I sure hope your right and the market for the -8/8F picks up. This will likely be the last major program I do before I retire, and I'd really like to see it be successful. Rumor mill says there are some significant new 747 orders in the works, but time will tell.

[bang ding ow]

new order!

cathay just announced today a NEW (sat 28th dec) order for a futher 3 777-300ers and 1 more 747-8F....jees.... i can smell an interim deal for the -8i even stronger now!! come on tdracer let's get this deal done...
bang

[gennadius01]

cathay just announced today a NEW (sat 28th dec) order for a futher 3 777-300ers and 1 more 747-8F....jees.... i can smell an interim deal for the -8i even stronger now!! come on tdracer let's get this deal done

With 14 8F's, it would most likely be easy for them to use some 8i's as a sub-fleet without it being too taxing in terms of maintenance and spares. It would definitely be great, in my opinion, to see some Intercontinentals in CX livery, not to mention just having another major customer for the 747-8 that would be flying both variants.

Perhaps there will be something after they get their 3 recently delivered PIP birds flying missions for a few months and they see what those numbers look like.

[cxorcist]

If CX never flies the Intercontinental, the reason will be because it makes too much sense. The demand for the seats, both higher quality first class and overall numbers, is there on certain routes. The maintenance and logistical support is already in place. The crews are already trained. Four engine performance would help in places like JNB. The PIP -8I has better seat costs than the 77W and similar seat costs to the much larger A380 (but carries more cargo). Oh, and I've heard you could get a great deal on the Intercontinental right now. What's not to love?

Nope, CX will pass and wait until 2021+ for the dream machine which will share many of the current 77W's struggles. Namely poor first class and two engine runway performance. The A350s will never reach the east coast of NAM with a CX payload, although it might be a great airplane for Europe and down under. I guess I just don't see the big picture...

[swh]

The PIP -8I has better seat costs than the 77W and similar seat costs to the much larger A380 (but carries more cargo).

What are you smoking ? The only way a 747-8i beats the 773-300ER or A380-800 in real airline configurations is if the cost of financing the engines and airframes is well below market rates.

Oh, and I've heard you could get a great deal on the Intercontinental right now. What's not to love?

ANY airline can get a great deal on a 747-8i, and no one is buying. Boeing is desperate to get 747-8 customers, they offered CX an "amazing" deal on them as interim lift before the 777-9X, CX did not bite.

The A350s will never reach the east coast of NAM with a CX payload, although it might be a great airplane for Europe and down under. I guess I just don't see the big picture...

You said the same about the A380, never be able to get to NAM, does not have enroute alternates to fly to Europe etc. Many operators are doing exactly what you said not possible. EK carry more cargo ULH on their A380s than they do on the 77W.

A380s have replaced 77W on the DXB-LAX, which is a couple of hundred miles further than HKG-JFK (EK flew DXB-LAX in 15:07 last week).

CX will be flying A350s to both the east and west coast of NAM. If they really wanted to push it, the A350-900 could do MCO & IAH non-stop if there was a business case for it. New ULH routes will never appear unless CX receives sufficient upfront commitments from companies wanting to use the service.

Have a look at this The Super Twin Battle: A350-1000 versus 777-9X | AirInsight

[SMOC]

For the conspiracy theorists amongst you!

Are the recent 748F, JFK-HKG & ORD-HKG polar flights a real time winter performance evaluation of how a 748i would perform???

[SMT Member]

Some of the capacity increase on the 777X is by re-contouring the sidewalls to get a few more inches of width - combined with a slightly narrower seat the can get another seat per row in coach (going from 9 abreast to 10 abreast). So the potential is there to cram a lot of seats in coach which would give really good seat-mile costs. OTOH, much of the popularity of the current 777 with passengers is due to the relatively wide seating - which would obviously be lost with 10 abreast seating

I think you are a few years behind the times mate. Several airlines have gone the 10-abreast route on their 777s, and these days the number of 777s delivered with 10-abreast config. far outweigh those with a 9-abreast ditto. EK is the major proponent, but it is becoming the new 'standard'.

This suggests the re-contouring will either be used to reclaim some of the space lost when going to 10-abreast, or it will be used for expansion to 11-abreast.

A 777-9X at 11-abreast will sport fantastic CASM figures, but then again so would an A380 with 12-abreast down stairs and 9 upstairs. It may be possible, but it would not be a very comfortable experience for the poor sods occupying those seats for 10+ hours at a time. I've had several wanders down the back end of EK aircraft whilst enroute, and the 77Ws are utter sardine cans. One can understand why an economy-class passenger would go out of their way to get on an A380 instead, who offer much more width at shoulder and hip level as well as much wider aisles. Not to mention a much reduced noise level, but that's besides the point.

Point is, 10-abreast 77Ws are the bean counters dream machine, and as long as they rule the roost that's where the game is at.

[donpizmeov]

I think you may have hit the nail on the head. I believe the new 777 sales pitch is "We don't have much leg room, but we have plenty of seats". And the wing tips will fold...How cool is that!


The Don

[gennadius01]

Originally posted by SMOC

For the conspiracy theorists amongst you!

Are the recent 748F, JFK-HKG & ORD-HKG polar flights a real time winter performance evaluation of how a 748i would perform???

Hah! Interesting. While not necessarily explicitly for that purpose, I would assume that fleet planning takes a look at all the information that they can get their hands on.

I think this question of CX looking at the 747-8i is still a very interesting one, especially with them now getting to look at the PIP performance directly.

[cxorcist]

Interesting points about the Polar routes on the 747-8F.

Perhaps it comes down to lease or small order of 748Is vs more 77Ws before the 77Xs start coming. If the lift is needed (and I'm not saying it is), I think CX will try to determine if they can make more money (ROI) from the 77W or the 748I. I think the A380 is essentially out of the running for a litany of reasons, but the same might be true of the Intercontinental as well.

The true economics of the -8 improvements and the price of the aircraft relative to more 77Ws will probably be the deciding factors.

[SMOC]

They're definitely up to something if they favour LJK/L/M on the direct flights as those A/C have the PIP engines.

[Sam Ting Wong]

The sun might rise in the West.

Hell could freeze over.

The pope will get married.

.... but

Cathay will not buy the 747-8i.

[Sam Ting Wong]

... nor the 380.

[gennadius01]

Originally posted by Sam Ting Wong

The sun might rise in the West.

Hell could freeze over.

The pope will get married.

.... but

Cathay will not buy the 747-8i.

... nor the 380.

Very...creative. What are your actual, logical, thoughts though?

[Sam Ting Wong]

The fact that both aircraft are sitting in the shop window for a few years and Cathay hasn't bought any.

In other words: they are soooo last season..

[boocs]

Next CX order?

Is the bizarre Sky Whale the future of air travel? | News.com.au

b.

[Pogie]

Bigger than an A380, AND it's engines tilt down 45-degrees so it can takeoff without a runway? LOL! Now THAT, I'd like to see!

[Master Caution]

Quote: The sun might rise in the West.

Not really related to the thread but you can see the sun rise in the west on certain of our polar flights in summer....

Which also puts paid to certain Nigel's claims that only Concord(e) pilots could see this

[The Messiah]

Isn't everywhere South from the North Pole?