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B748i or A380 order?

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B748i or A380 order?

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Old 15th Nov 2013, 22:48
  #201 (permalink)  
 
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2 more 748F and 12x748i from the guys in the Pacific Nth West, signed sealed just not delivered.
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Old 16th Nov 2013, 00:08
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Sounds like something IC could announce at his first press conference once he takes the reigns.
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Old 16th Nov 2013, 00:22
  #203 (permalink)  
 
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2 more 748F and 12x748i from the guys in the Pacific Nth West, signed sealed just not delivered.
Ah, and apparently not announced? I mean I'm sure Boeing would be delighted, but nothing official at the moment. Another 'surprise' to go with the 777X launch?
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Old 16th Nov 2013, 00:54
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Look unless we get a major pickup in the global market both VLA have failed in their passenger role. Airbus will hopefully make most of their money back by selling as close to their break even point as possible, Boeing will hopefully make most of their money back in freighters (748f is the only game in town atm). The USA is drilling everything dark at the moment and that will drop crude price, but in the long run, big twins are the future. How many pax routes justify the added range of the 748 over the largest twins? I think every time I look out the windows of my tower in 20 years every aircraft will look almost identical, which depresses me. Bring back Concorde and Tristars and VC-10s any day
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Old 16th Nov 2013, 04:30
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2 more 748F and 12x748i from the guys in the Pacific Nth West, signed sealed just not delivered....how many times have we heard this!?
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Old 17th Nov 2013, 00:33
  #206 (permalink)  
 
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In the news this morning that EK is looking to order 50 more A380.

Do you think they would order that many if they did not make money?

Cx is too in love with the notion of Cargo to realize that it is not going to come back to 2009 levels. All of our red ink is coming from cargo in hong kong and in china!
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Old 17th Nov 2013, 09:13
  #207 (permalink)  
 
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Nice start for the 777X

Boeing has formally launched its new 777X family with orders and commitments by four airlines for 259 aircraft at the Dubai air show today.
DUBAI: Boeing formally launches 777X family with 259 commitments

Plus the standard 50 x A380s for EK taking them to 140!

Emirates orders 50 additional A380s, boosting fleet to 140 | Airbus News & Events
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Old 17th Nov 2013, 09:53
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You beat me SMOC...and what is CX doing???
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Old 17th Nov 2013, 12:00
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and what is CX doing???
Don't know, but forget about the A380 at this stage. At the rate the Middle East is picking 777Xs off the shelf, there won't be any delivery available for CX (or anybody else) for years. Unless they pay a premium...

Funny how CX has gone from being the launch customer of everything to the quiet one who politely waits for everyone else to take their pick.

But hey, the 748i is waiting in the corner, raising its hand...
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Old 17th Nov 2013, 12:14
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At the rate the Middle East is picking 777Xs off the shelf, there won't be any delivery available for CX (or anybody else) for years. Unless they pay a premium...
Very true. 259 initial 777X orders from only 4 companies. Assuming they can get 4 a month through the production line (probably not likely), that's about 5 & 1/2 years. At 3 a month, that's just over 7 years, until anyone else can get one (unless they pay a premium to one of those carriers as noted). By that stage, there'll be talk about a 777-superX, or a 350-1000X, or maybe something new.....

The numbers quoted are staggering for EK alone. 50 x 380, 150 x 777x. CX barely have 150 aircraft total at the moment, let alone 150 of a single type.

I'm sure that it's been noted somewhere before that many of these will be replacements for EKs 777-300ERs. On the issue of no 777Xs being available, pretty much the only way to get a 777 will be to get a 2nd hand -300ER from one of the -X launch customers.
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Old 17th Nov 2013, 12:42
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Steady boys, just because nothing was announced in flashing neon at Dubai doesn't mean a deal hasn't already been done! CX VERY rarely if ever make these types of announcements at an Airshow, especially in Emirates back yard. We already know the CX bean counters have been foaming at the mouth over the 777x, and if I was a betting man, I'd have a few $ on a deal to lease the 747-8i, and buy the 777x for the long term.
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Old 17th Nov 2013, 12:43
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I believe that Boeing currently produce eight 777s a month. When the 77X comes along there is no reason that they could not ramp up to this level given the demand is there. Boeing may have to produce the 77X away from Paine Field given the latest troubles with the machinists union so who knows what their 777X production capacity will be.
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Old 17th Nov 2013, 18:35
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I believe that Boeing currently produce eight 777s a month. When the 77X comes along there is no reason that they could not ramp up to this level given the demand is there.
777 is currently at 8.3/month - 100/year. Rumors that they might try to increase that to 10/month in the future (they just loaded the first 787 body section at the 10/month rate).

There will likely be some disruption during the transition from the current 777 to the -9, I'm sure within a year or so of certification and initial deliveries they'll be back to at least the current 8.3/month rate.

One open question is, if they build the 777X other than Everett, will they rob the fuselage tooling from Everett, or duplicate it? If they decide to go elsewhere and duplicate the fuselage tooling, it would give the capability to continue to build -300ER/200LRs, while at the same time creating the -8/-9 capability elsewhere. That in turn could eventually turn into the capability of two 777 productions lines with capability of ~16/month if the demand is there
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Old 17th Nov 2013, 19:06
  #214 (permalink)  
 
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I think it a bit silly to assume that all 259 ordered by four airlines will account for the first 259 777Xs produced. It is very likely that there is still availability in the early airframes. CX may very well have already ordered some of those.

As for the Intercontinental at CX, wouldn't there be some face lost for JS if we were to end up with them? I realize he's not Asian, but he lives and works in a Asian world, for now anyways.
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Old 18th Nov 2013, 05:30
  #215 (permalink)  
 
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JS recently changed his citizenship from USA to China.

Salt and pepper, anyone?

Most pilfered items taken off Cathay Pacific | South China Morning Post
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Old 18th Nov 2013, 05:52
  #216 (permalink)  
 
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A tax dodge perhaps?
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Old 18th Nov 2013, 17:01
  #217 (permalink)  
 
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More big twins = more jobs. Eg 15 777xs means more pilots, more mechanics, more cc and ahem.....more controllers than 10 or 12 748s/A380s, you should all be happy!

Last edited by Una Due Tfc; 18th Nov 2013 at 21:04.
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Old 18th Nov 2013, 17:47
  #218 (permalink)  
 
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Cool

more mechanics
yeah right!
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Old 18th Nov 2013, 17:55
  #219 (permalink)  
 
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Well line maintenance at least
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Old 18th Nov 2013, 18:05
  #220 (permalink)  
 
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The above is a good point. I've advocated in the past for all B788s as that is the smallest long haul aircraft available. Obviously, that is wishful thinking but I agree that big twins (as opposed to VLA) make demand for various groups of airline employees greater. As such, we should be glad because eventually it will help market forces tip in our favor.
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