Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

pilot shortage

Old 28th Jun 2011, 17:42
  #41 (permalink)  
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I changed my last post after I read the last part of your previous one. Not fast enough I guess, you already answered...

As far as there is no joke with the Vietnamese rapes, I am fine.
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Old 28th Jun 2011, 18:21
  #42 (permalink)  
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Please note from previous post that I described "Vietnam-era pilots" as including pilots who were in the military (or civilian) during the conflict time frame but got out/hired afterwards in the late 70s. Had to edit to include this as it is my final post.
Ok, I know this is your last post, just to be accurate: that's not because somebody, who was a military or civilian during the Vietnam war (59/73 mainly), has been hired in the late 70s (even late 80s if you want!) suddenly became younger when he got hired!
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Old 28th Jun 2011, 18:59
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would anyone like a mint ?
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Old 28th Jun 2011, 19:25
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would anyone like a mint ?
Only if it's wafer thin.


Thanks Stuck, best post to date. Let's all take a chill pill and have a group hug.
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Old 28th Jun 2011, 21:12
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After the first Gulf War, most military pilots who got out were able to secure a major airline job. Sorry if you didn't have the experience to get hired. This was from 91-93. Even Northwest hired a bunch.

From 96-2000 all major airlines were hiring. Hence, about 50+ guys I know were hired by Southwest alone.
These two statements tell me that your out of your mind or plain don't know what the hell your talking about.
There was very little hiring in the early 90s. Why do you think there were 2500+ hr flight instructors. It wasn't because they were professional-lifetime instructors. It was because there was NO movement, a-la no/little hiring. I seem to remember Pan Am going TU in '91 and what few jobs were available were snatched up by those highly qualified individuals. The hiring didn't really start picking up until '98

All of the majors were not hiring in '96.
I know for a fact that AA and US Air did not start until '98 or later.
I still have the scantron from AA and the app from US Air and those issue dates were in '98.
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Old 28th Jun 2011, 21:14
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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Is this a typo or sarcasm?
Neither.
I guess you don't have a clue as to what entry level salaries are these days.
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Old 29th Jun 2011, 03:01
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Dude,

The only shortage is of guys willing to work at abysmally low wages at the entry levels of this biz.
So you're saying that no one is accepting the low wages---hence the airlines can't find pilots and have a shortage? Hope that's true. In Europe I don't think it's the case as guys/gals get up everyday and pay to fly at Ryanair etc.

From 91-93, UPS hired, NW hired, Delta hired (even after the Pan Am bankruptcy), AA hired, Fedex hired. Mind you I'm speaking of ex-military not 2500+ hour flight instructors. No military pilot that I know who got out after the first gulf was was unable to find a job. I'm not talking 1000s of jobs mate just steady hiring. So perhaps only high-time/ex-mil guys were finding jobs.

Same goes for guys who got out from 96-2000. No one I know was unable to find a job. Again, that doesn't mean 1000s of jobs or that 2500+ hour CFIs without a college degree or what have you were being hired by the majors. No idea what the commuters were doing, although a few guys I know did have to start with commuters in around 99-2000. Then, of course, the bottom fell out.

Last edited by sodapop; 29th Jun 2011 at 03:28.
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Old 29th Jun 2011, 03:28
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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There is a shortage of handsome Caribou pilots who can play guitar, drive an automatic porsche like Daryl O' Young and ask stupid questions that have no relevance to operations of a big jet
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Old 29th Jun 2011, 03:43
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How many of you on this thread were actually involved in the US airline business during the 90's? By involved, I mean you were working for or applying to any of the US carriers during that time.

Wraith-

What country are you from?
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Old 29th Jun 2011, 05:57
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Hey KAG,

Just occurred to me that perhaps the reason we don't come to terms on the age of guys who left the military at the end of conflict or shortly after, is that many of them got out "early" as the military drew down and so they were in the 24-27 age group. Hence, a guy who was 25 get out in '74 and is now 61-62. Even a 27-year old who gets out in '73 is just now hitting 65. Admittedly, a narrow "Vietnam-era pilot" gap which I should have better explained. Whenever I speak to someone regarding the upcoming retirement boom, they refer to these guys in this manner.

Just for clarification.

Cheers

B the K,

I was heavily into getting ready to apply and prepared from 95-98, still have the old Air Inc gouge book. Ended up flying in Europe instead.
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Old 29th Jun 2011, 13:31
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We used to talk about the WWII and Korean pilots retirement re pilot shortage...

Then it was the military downsizing with less pilots...

Still waiting...
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Old 29th Jun 2011, 13:47
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Epic CX Guy

If there ever is a real pilot shortage I'm going to break out my Saxophone and go bananas ....

Like This ....

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Old 29th Jun 2011, 14:20
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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Flexible
There will never be a shortage of systems operators but there is definitely a shortage of pilots.
Sorry to say, single pilot IFR is where it is all heading...at least until all the pilots are dead and buried. Hopefully by that time CX will be able to run their schedule with drone operators from the Dakota.
I understand that pretty soon 50 percent of US military ops will be run by drones...then they just upsize them to 400t MTOW and problem solved.
At least then we don't have to get buried with our mistakes
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Old 29th Jun 2011, 15:02
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If there ever is a real pilot shortage I'm going to break out my Saxophone and go bananas ....

Like This ....

what, the same few bars repeated incessantly and flipped back to front. i pity your neighbours.. but then again thats only if there's a pilot shortage, so they're safe in this lifetime.

mind you even in WWII, the japanese didnt have a problem of a pilot shortage in finding P2F pilots..

First Kamikaze unit: Commander Asaiki Tamai asked a group of 23 talented student pilots, all of whom he had trained, to volunteer for the special attack force. All of the pilots raised both of their hands, volunteering to join the operation
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Old 30th Jun 2011, 00:06
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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'Things that make you go ''hmmm...'' '

A Cathay Pacific recruitment ad in 'Flight' magazine, 21-27 June issue. I thought we were 'being swamped with applications'??

(There is also an ad for Emirates over the page.)
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Old 30th Jun 2011, 07:58
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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FO's are starting to leave for Emirates ..... one this week others in the process.
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Old 30th Jun 2011, 10:52
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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I dont believe there will be short of pilot, plenty out there do not worry about it.
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Old 1st Jul 2011, 13:52
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Just the "facts" ma'am

You are in: Home › Airlines › News Article

DATE:22/06/11
SOURCE:Flight Daily News
PARIS: Boeing warns airlines time's running out for training
By David Learmount


Airlines are seeing greater numbers of their pilots being poached by competing carriers, a sure sign that the long-expected pilot shortage is kicking in despite continued economic gloom in the US and Europe.
The comments from Boeing Flight Services vice-president Sherry Carbary came at the release the 2011 version of Boeing's annually updated analysis of the airline industry's growing needs for skilled personnel such as pilots and technicians over the next 20 years. In 2010 Boeing's study predicted a need for 446,500 new pilots over the next 20 years, but now Carbary says that has risen to 459,600. Boeing's prediction for the number of fully trained technicians airlines will need has climbed from 596,500 to 650,000.
The average annual training need to meet that demand is 23,000 new pilots and 32,000 new technicians.
In the 2011-2030 period, according to Boeing's new figures, by far the biggest demand will come from Asia, because that is where the economic growth is, said Carbary. She also warned that a great deal of the Asian requirement for expert personnel has historically been met by expats, whereas in future the latter will be needed in their home markets,
Asia Pacific pilot demand is predicted to be 40% of the total, said Carbary, whereas in the 1970s it was 2%. Comparative needs in North America and Europe respectively are 18% and 20% and a far higher proportion of those figures is for replacements rather than the additional needs generated by growth. The regional share of demand figures are almost the same for technicians.
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Old 3rd Jul 2011, 15:11
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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You silly bunch of scaremongers. Cx can now train a pilot to be equally capable and competent as any in one year! In the old days a guy had to be military or have done many thousands of commercial hours before CX would put him in their jets - but now - thanks to the wonders of the international cadet scheme all of that can be created in ONE YEAR. Its magic.
Stop worrying - there'll never be a shortage.

However there is the little problem of being grounded now faced by Tiger in Aus- apparently in no small part due to pilot experienc/ abilities being lacking....

CX training is the best - so I am still not worried.
The planes fly themselves anyway.
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Old 3rd Jul 2011, 17:14
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The planes fly themselves...


until they don't....... that is usually when you need a pilot!


(yes YOKE, I know you were joking)

Last edited by WhatThe?; 3rd Jul 2011 at 20:51.
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