Next Financial crash looming?
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Next Financial crash looming?
The media are talking up the fact that the recovery is here to stay but I have my doubts. I've been flying recently with a lot of "Elliot Wave" stalwarts who tell me the next "wave 3" is about to descend upon us. This next one will see the S+P drop by 800 points and the dollar appreciate in value, leading to deflation as every one sells assets and starts buying the greenback. I'm just wondering when this cataclismic event is likely to be? Seems the smart thing to stay out of buying property at the moment, any opinions?
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HK Property is making little sense to me unless you are buying a place to live in, and/or CX (or KA etc) is paying the mortgage. I currently do have a rental property in HKG which I plan to offload in the next 12 months. I can make a better return elsewhere.
My focus is three-fold.
1. Foreign currencies. Against the USD/HKD, the Korean won and Indo rup are looking good, maybe 7% and 5% respectively over the next 6 months. I am still holding AUD and hoping for a further boost on parity with the USD and AUD interest rate rises in the short term. (I am up 27% ytd on my FCY account based on an AUD/NZD/CAD/EUR/GBP spread)
2. Equities. Downside for the HSI is looking to be about 21.5k with an upside of 24k by early next year. I am buying on down-days and selling on up-days for short term gains. (I am up 29% this year on the HSI, despite having lost my nerve and sold out -for a while- in May/June 09) For the medium term buying A shares through QFII funds seems to be the next step.
3. Commodities. Mining stocks such as Zijin mining etc look good as a buy on down-days, or buying gold at the gold market (if you can transport and store the stuff!).
Hedge your bets, and spread risk. Set your profit and loss targets and exercise those trades
.
Edited for speeling.
My focus is three-fold.
1. Foreign currencies. Against the USD/HKD, the Korean won and Indo rup are looking good, maybe 7% and 5% respectively over the next 6 months. I am still holding AUD and hoping for a further boost on parity with the USD and AUD interest rate rises in the short term. (I am up 27% ytd on my FCY account based on an AUD/NZD/CAD/EUR/GBP spread)
2. Equities. Downside for the HSI is looking to be about 21.5k with an upside of 24k by early next year. I am buying on down-days and selling on up-days for short term gains. (I am up 29% this year on the HSI, despite having lost my nerve and sold out -for a while- in May/June 09) For the medium term buying A shares through QFII funds seems to be the next step.
3. Commodities. Mining stocks such as Zijin mining etc look good as a buy on down-days, or buying gold at the gold market (if you can transport and store the stuff!).
Hedge your bets, and spread risk. Set your profit and loss targets and exercise those trades
.Edited for speeling.
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Who are you to tell me to grow up you prat! I can make my own mind up on the validity of the elliot theory. You had better tell half of the captains I've flown with recently to grow up, they all hold stall with EW.
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Elliott Wave
EXEZY
I have followed Elliott wave for a number of years now and found their predictions, especially at the major turns, timely and , importantly, accurate.
The next financial crisis is not about to descend, perse- it never went away.
After stock market tops in 2000 and more recently Oct 2007, the elliott wave practitioners have maintained a course of worldwide asset deflation and economic depression- not just "recesssion". This has come to pass more noticably in some countries than others; US & UK are prime examples.
The market rally worldwide since March 2009 has been a relief rally, or Bear market rally. It is now over according to Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting using the Elliott Wave Principle
The onset of Primary wave 3- DOWN is upon us now and will be devastating in its brutality, ushering in severe depression in many, many countries.
After this wave is over (approx 2 years) a minor relief rally- wave 4- will occur to relieve some of the pain prior to the FINAL wave 5 down.
ONLY THEN will the bear market be over. Elliott wave look for about 2012-2014 before the bear market is done.
Standby for deflation of ALL asset classes worldwide; equities, commodities, real estate, bonds etc.
CASH is king for now.
Hope this helps
PS I bunked out of the P-Fund and went 100% cash end of Sept/start Oct 09.
There is serious s#@t about to happen!
I have followed Elliott wave for a number of years now and found their predictions, especially at the major turns, timely and , importantly, accurate.
The next financial crisis is not about to descend, perse- it never went away.
After stock market tops in 2000 and more recently Oct 2007, the elliott wave practitioners have maintained a course of worldwide asset deflation and economic depression- not just "recesssion". This has come to pass more noticably in some countries than others; US & UK are prime examples.
The market rally worldwide since March 2009 has been a relief rally, or Bear market rally. It is now over according to Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting using the Elliott Wave Principle
The onset of Primary wave 3- DOWN is upon us now and will be devastating in its brutality, ushering in severe depression in many, many countries.
After this wave is over (approx 2 years) a minor relief rally- wave 4- will occur to relieve some of the pain prior to the FINAL wave 5 down.
ONLY THEN will the bear market be over. Elliott wave look for about 2012-2014 before the bear market is done.
Standby for deflation of ALL asset classes worldwide; equities, commodities, real estate, bonds etc.
CASH is king for now.
Hope this helps
PS I bunked out of the P-Fund and went 100% cash end of Sept/start Oct 09.
There is serious s#@t about to happen!
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Exezy
I don't know if I'm amazed or amused by your posting.
Everything of substance I read says the US is trying to inflate its way out of its debt not just to China but to the entire rest of the world.
The sucre and other new reserve currencies are starting to see the light of day in a bid to ditch the dollar because the Mint's printing presses have been in overdrive since 1970.
Because the USD is the dominant reserve currency and banks need to hold them so clients can pay invoices, that lets the USA print an "IOU" currency that is redeemable against nothing except what the seller chooses to sell: the mention "Silver Certificate" disappeared long ago when it was decided not to let you redeem paper for real wealth, i.e. silver.
When a country makes its currency convertible, as required to join WTO, it agrees to trade its currency freely. Most notably, it undertakes to buy all the dollars anybody chooses to present to a teller window. So whenever Boeing pays the Chinese maker for 757 subassemblies in dollars, the Bank of China has to print as many yuan as the subassembly maker can claim for with the dollars it receives in payment. Those yuan flood the local economy and push up prices, i.e. China suffers inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of China (BoC) has too many dollars and ends up investing them in T-bonds and T-bills, which are paying very little interest. There are too many because the opportunities for investment in the USA are limited and Chinese consumers will drink only so much Pepsi. So the BoC is sitting on a stack of IOUs that it bought at, say, 8.00 yuan to the dollar and along comes Hillary Clinton to grumble that the yuan is too cheap. To make her happy, BoC should pay only, say, 6.00 for every dollar it buys. But then what does that do when it cashes in its Treasury securities? Well, it had bought the dollars at 8.00 apiece and is now cashing them in at 6.00 apiece.
China is not the only country suffering this game. The Japanese yen was 360 to the dollar in the early 1960s; it is now 120 or so. The Fed pulled the same trick on them for decades. The 1987 crisis erupted when Japanese players failed to renew options on overnight money: the US dollar had suddenly lost its principal prop.
Your curve theory is beautiful and I like the name "Elliot" because it reminds me of someone allegedly bold and honest like Elliot Ness who trimmed a few branches on the mafia tree.
One reason Iraq was attacked was that it decided to sell oil in euro. As more countries find ways to shortcircuit the dollar in their bilateral transactions, the dollar risks going through the floor.
Crumbling empires are dangerous.
Meanwhile, the price of gold continues its upward push.
(But don't invest in gemstones unless they're huge unique pieces: their resale value is 10% to 15% of their retail value.)
Everything of substance I read says the US is trying to inflate its way out of its debt not just to China but to the entire rest of the world.
The sucre and other new reserve currencies are starting to see the light of day in a bid to ditch the dollar because the Mint's printing presses have been in overdrive since 1970.
Because the USD is the dominant reserve currency and banks need to hold them so clients can pay invoices, that lets the USA print an "IOU" currency that is redeemable against nothing except what the seller chooses to sell: the mention "Silver Certificate" disappeared long ago when it was decided not to let you redeem paper for real wealth, i.e. silver.
When a country makes its currency convertible, as required to join WTO, it agrees to trade its currency freely. Most notably, it undertakes to buy all the dollars anybody chooses to present to a teller window. So whenever Boeing pays the Chinese maker for 757 subassemblies in dollars, the Bank of China has to print as many yuan as the subassembly maker can claim for with the dollars it receives in payment. Those yuan flood the local economy and push up prices, i.e. China suffers inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of China (BoC) has too many dollars and ends up investing them in T-bonds and T-bills, which are paying very little interest. There are too many because the opportunities for investment in the USA are limited and Chinese consumers will drink only so much Pepsi. So the BoC is sitting on a stack of IOUs that it bought at, say, 8.00 yuan to the dollar and along comes Hillary Clinton to grumble that the yuan is too cheap. To make her happy, BoC should pay only, say, 6.00 for every dollar it buys. But then what does that do when it cashes in its Treasury securities? Well, it had bought the dollars at 8.00 apiece and is now cashing them in at 6.00 apiece.
China is not the only country suffering this game. The Japanese yen was 360 to the dollar in the early 1960s; it is now 120 or so. The Fed pulled the same trick on them for decades. The 1987 crisis erupted when Japanese players failed to renew options on overnight money: the US dollar had suddenly lost its principal prop.
Your curve theory is beautiful and I like the name "Elliot" because it reminds me of someone allegedly bold and honest like Elliot Ness who trimmed a few branches on the mafia tree.
One reason Iraq was attacked was that it decided to sell oil in euro. As more countries find ways to shortcircuit the dollar in their bilateral transactions, the dollar risks going through the floor.
Crumbling empires are dangerous.
Meanwhile, the price of gold continues its upward push.
(But don't invest in gemstones unless they're huge unique pieces: their resale value is 10% to 15% of their retail value.)
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Are these the same Captains who have been so successful in the stockmarket that they are still flying across the Pacific in the middle of the night or checking into crappy hotels for min rest onites and signing contracts to do it for another 10 years.
Yep, I would be taking all that financial advice verbatim. Sounds like they are cleaning up!
Yep, I would be taking all that financial advice verbatim. Sounds like they are cleaning up!
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Are these the same Captains who have been so successful in the stockmarket that they are still flying across the Pacific in the middle of the night or checking into crappy hotels for min rest onites and signing contracts to do it for another 10 years.
Yep, I would be taking all that financial advice verbatim. Sounds like they are cleaning up!
Yep, I would be taking all that financial advice verbatim. Sounds like they are cleaning up!
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"One reason Iraq was attacked was that it decided to sell oil in euro. As more countries find ways to shortcircuit the dollar in their bilateral transactions, the dollar risks going through the floor."
Yep. Iran is also being threatened because of the Kish Bourse.
The unfolding events in the Me have more to do with dollar hegemony than terrorism.
And this is just the start.
Yep. Iran is also being threatened because of the Kish Bourse.
The unfolding events in the Me have more to do with dollar hegemony than terrorism.
And this is just the start.
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I base my investing on the "Cathay Fuel Hedging Wave".
i.e. When Cathay hedge their fuel at $149, you can bet the market has peaked.
On the beach
i.e. When Cathay hedge their fuel at $149, you can bet the market has peaked.
On the beach
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Suzy Orman said...
She said we entered a Bear market in 2000 and we will enter a Bull market in 2014. In between those years we could have mini bull and bear markets.
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Elliot wave has been shown to be correct about as often as it is wrong which puts it right up there with the coin toss - but slightly better at building your wealth than the roulette table - don't ask me to justify this - google it for yourself. Seriously - you will find Prechter have been wrong as often as right.
NOBODY can predict the markets. Prime examples are the run up of the dollar last year, and the HKG property market this year - now it seems obvious why it happened - but we did not see it coming. Elliot wave can't either.
Investment is firstly about not losing. If you can avoid loss you already halfway there. That is why we need our Prov fund setup to change - we need to be able to get out of funds much quicker to avoid loss.
Secondly invetment is about following a trend - if its going up - buy it , set a tight stop loss and sell it quick to avoid loss when it turns.
Waay easier than counting Elliot waves.
NOBODY can predict the markets. Prime examples are the run up of the dollar last year, and the HKG property market this year - now it seems obvious why it happened - but we did not see it coming. Elliot wave can't either.
Investment is firstly about not losing. If you can avoid loss you already halfway there. That is why we need our Prov fund setup to change - we need to be able to get out of funds much quicker to avoid loss.
Secondly invetment is about following a trend - if its going up - buy it , set a tight stop loss and sell it quick to avoid loss when it turns.
Waay easier than counting Elliot waves.