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Cathay Pacific Returns to Profit on Fuel-Hedging Gain

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Cathay Pacific Returns to Profit on Fuel-Hedging Gain

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Old 10th Aug 2009, 00:57
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Someone said they are adding 11 B777 by end of 2010, so when will they start hiring or with these 11 airframe it's still net gain zero to fleet.
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Old 10th Aug 2009, 09:05
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(like the back of a military Hercules).
That hurt Capt. Dart ...And I felt like an Airline pilot flying those pongo's, they acted like it was first class going on R&R.

More seriously, the pax complaining if it's not Olympus must compare it to the regional seats as if they see the SQ, EK, Etihad, Qatar or even QF flat beds they will never come back, like so many have already done.

Our girls are really trying hard with a sub standard product.
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Old 10th Aug 2009, 10:30
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creative accounting?

Let's forget the gain on fuel hedge because thats just an "accounting thing", it's not real money. It only really matters when you make a paper loss and need to rape 13 month and call for unpaid leave; now that's real money!

I am quite rightly not allowed to quote information gained on intracx in the public domain; it would, however, seem to the informed observer that the operation was fairly close to break even for the first 6 months (HK$200m loss). There were extraordinary losses caused by the write down of some 340-300 leases (HK$396m) and the book value of some BCF's in anticipation of sale (HK$169m) which inflated this small loss.

Given that the first 3 months of the year were difficult, but the trend vector has been up for the 2nd quarter, one could be semi-postive about the second half of the year. I am willing wager that given the call for SLS and the fuel surcharges loaded onto passengers (and staff) and the call for governments to lower their airport charges; the timing of these 2 writedowns is extremely convenient. It would be embarrassing to break-even (ish) on operation at such a time of need

However, forget profits: our leaders are concerned by cashflow. This was the rallying cry for SLS: preserve cash! Well HK$4.9b was needed for aircraft purchases, of which HK$5b was borrowed. Nothing remarkable there surely; that's how business works. HK$2.73b were for loan repayments.....

Hang on - the idea is you make money and repay loans. Loan repayments are not an item on your P&L account. Is Nick saying we all need to take pay cuts to repay debt and preserve Cathay's Debt/ Equity ration? Is that really what SLS was all about??... I must have missed that bit in the fine print.

There are 2 things in this world that smell of fish <insert Jeremy Clarkson pause> and one of them is the need for SLS.

Last edited by Liam Gallagher; 10th Aug 2009 at 10:51.
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Old 10th Aug 2009, 18:23
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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"Someone said they are adding 11 B777 by end of 2010, so when will they start hiring or with these 11 airframe it's still net gain zero to fleet."

You are quite right high flyer, because at the end of the day, actions speak louder than words.

Here you have a company that is crying about being "overstaffed", and they go and extend their most expensive pilots that were due to retire for "natural causes". Other majors that are overstaffed for real would give their left nut for age 55 retirement. I know that most majors in the US and Europe are begging their seniors to take early retirement.

Then consider the fact that at Cathay we are chronically understaffed, at all times, that is just how the airline is run. Our reserve coverage is really not reserve because you are awarded trips days in advance - that is not what reserve is for. True last-minute disruptions are covered with O day extensions and G-day callouts.

Then the AOA wins the bypass pay court case. The DFO comes on about how it is not that big a deal - but the company appeals. Then, not a word about it for a few weeks. When does he choose to mention this? The friday when the mid-year figures are released, crying about how the AOA just keeps taking them to court. I got news for you sport, stop violating the contract and the court cases will go away.

And who pays to return aircraft early when flights are full? Managers that are trying to staff an airline without hiring, that is who. There are plenty of airlines like AirAsia that are looking for A340-300s to lease. I have a hard time believing that it is cheaper to pay ILFC hundreds of millions to take the planes back than it is to sub-lease them out to AirAsia.

Again, more bad decisions being made and they expect us to subsidize them. I'm not.
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 01:54
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Perhaps the time has come when Sir Adrain and his colleagues should seriously consider shutting up shop!!!
The fuel is costing what they expected, the load factors are ridiculous and still they can't make any money.
Time to cut the losses......
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 03:29
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Fac6

I agree with what your saying but how did SQ make a loss as well then and thats probably not including hedging stuff ups either.
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 04:03
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Yep, maybe Asia is just catching up with US and Europe, with only the no-frill LCC (SW, Ryanair, Air Asia) able to make money, even when full.
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 04:42
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As some have stated here... How can CX continue to be top when they have so many old configurations? The SQ A380 is operating daily now Sin - Hkg. How the hell can CX compete with that route when they're flying the 777 and Airbus with ancient C class seats? Hardly rocket science
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 07:16
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Yeah but no but yeah - SQ is losing more money. If passengers are only willing to pay for Air Asia/ Jetstar levels of service on HKG-SIN, then spending money on giving them luxury seats in an A380 just increases your losses...

Looks like at Finnair, the CEO has given up!


Finnair Plc Company Announcement FINNAIR'S PRESIDENT & CEO RESIGNS


FINNAIR PLC STOCK EXCHANGE RELEASE 7 AUGUST 2009 AT 0901

Finnair's President & CEO Jukka Hienonen has resigned from his
post.
My four years in Finnair's service has included both periods of success
as well as the increasingly adverse development of the entire sector, and now a
clear change of course is required. I am not satisfied with the results
achieved; the rate of change has been insufficient, says President & CEO
Hienonen.
Many structures as well as the company's culture have been formed in
totally different conditions. With these we cannot do well in the present
competitive environment, but changing them has proved to be extremely difficult.
Some personnel organisations have shown no willingness to adapt.
Finnair has
a good and effective strategy, on which it would be possible to build future
success. It will require a lot of work and also a completely different way of
thinking in terms of working conditions. Finnair has many expert personnel and
an excellent management team, with whom I have been able to work. I wish to
extend to them my warm thanks.

Finnair's Board of Directors regrets Jukka
Hienonen's resignation.
The decision is entirely President & CEO Hienonen's
own. I am sorry at his decision, because cooperation between Jukka and the board
has always been excellent, says Christoffer Taxell, Chairman of Finnair's Board
of Directors.

Jukka Hienonen continues as President & CEO for the time being.
The period of notice in Hienonen contract is six months. Because Hienonen's
resignation is at his own request, no severance pay will be paid.

Finnair Plc

Communications
7 August 2009
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 07:24
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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SQ apparently are operating their A380's into HK full! How can you have over 460 seats sold and make a loss on a 3 hour flight? Have you seen how much SQ are charging to fly Singapore to Hong Kong?
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 07:45
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Let me see.........................fly in a old cabin 773 from CX with 13 year old regional business class, crap IFE..........

or, fly in a brand spanking new A380 with all the latest gizzmos in Business class.............

Gee, it's a hard choice really.

I guess if CX were charging less then....................but wait they're charging the same as SQ............or more.

Either the pax don't know or don't care.
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 07:47
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1375 HKD round trip, including all fuel surcharges and taxes... (according to their web site)

So that is 88 USD or 50 GBP for a three hour flight, with a meal and just about all the booze you want. I find it hard to see how they can make money with that fare, even if all seats are filled!
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 07:53
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Japan Airlines cuts service after $1bn loss

By Jonathan Soble in Tokyo

Published: August 7 2009 10:05 | Last updated: August 7 2009 17:18

Japan Airlines suffered a record Y99bn ($1bn) loss in the quarter to June, forcing it to cut or reduce services on 16 domestic and international routes and switch to smaller aircraft on more than a dozen others in an effort to save costs.

Asia’s biggest air carrier by revenue secured Y100bn in emergency funding from a group of existing creditors in June after the Japanese government agreed to guarantee new loans.


A former national carrier, JAL had only just returned to profit after a four-year restructuring.

The airline had initially sought an injection of Y200bn and continued steep losses could force the government to stretch its guarantee to cover more funds, analysts said.

Globally, airlines could lose as much as $9bn this year, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Even traditionally strong carriers are struggling. Singapore Airlines has warned it could make its first full-year loss since its founding in 1972.

Finn departure

The chief executive of Finnair quit on Friday after the airline posted a worse-than-expected quarterly loss.

“I am not satisfied with the results achieved. The rate of change has been insufficient,” Jukka Hienonen said.

The Finnish airline cited weak demand and falling ticket prices for the loss of €32.5m ($46.2m), compared with analysts’ forecasts of a €30m loss.

All Nippon Airways, JAL’s smaller but sturdier Japanese rival, fell into a Y29bn loss in the three months to June against a profit of Y6.6bn a year earlier.

JAL’s loss compared with a Y3.4bn deficit a year ago. The airline said on Friday that sales had fallen 32 per cent in the quarter to Y335bn.

The decline was concentrated in its international business, where passenger numbers dropped by nearly a fifth and revenues plunged by half as the airline was forced to offer steep discounts to fill seats.

The airline stood by is forecast for a smaller Y63bn loss for the full year. That projection risks being undone, however, if JAL’s pensioners reject a plan to cut pay-outs, which would generate a one-time saving of Y88bn.

JAL must win approval from two-thirds of its 9,000 pensioners in order to cut benefits. According to an unofficial count by a group of pensioners opposed to the plan, more than 3,000 intend to vote against it.

JAL has sold non-core assets, cut jobs and eliminated unprofitable routes in an effort to turn itself round, but analysts and creditors say more radical measures are needed.

As part of the service reductions announced on Friday, JAL said it would suspend flights to Paris and Seoul from the central Japanese city of Nagoya.

Copyright The Financial Times
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 08:10
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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Maybe out of SIN, but on the HK website they are showing 1375. So maybe they are just ripping off their own citizens...
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 08:17
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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Just paid for a full fair out of SIN to HKG this morning on CX..... $400 SGD. Completely full 777.... but not making any money?
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 08:25
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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1375 is a VERY limted fare.
I've looked a month on.. Not available.. 6-8000 HKG for a Y class ticket.

Flexi Saver
From HKD 6,862
Cancellation fee applies

Flexi
From HKD 8,122


ALL the promo fares you see are extremely limited.. The planes are full.
AND they are charging a bucket full.

Thats the way it is.

EDIT>> Same dates on CX yield a fare fo 3500 HKD

NOTE : To Revenue Management... you need to charge more!!
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Old 11th Aug 2009, 09:05
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According to their latest results:

SIA
Passenger carried (thousand) 3,809
Revenue passenger-km (million) 18,655.0
Available seat-km (million) 26,072.6
Passenger load factor (%) 71.6
Passenger yield (cents/pkm) 10.2
Passenger unit cost (cents/ask) 8.6
Passenger breakeven load factor (%) 84.3

So, yes, if they are going out full they are making money. But they aren't, they are 72% full, and they need to be 84% full to make money.
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Old 13th Aug 2009, 15:48
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Lets average some ticket prices and seats for a flight in 1 month off their site, Actual figures...

EY = $580 C = $2084 and F = $4084 ALL in $ SGD

Their seating config is 399 EY, 60 C class and 12 F Class

399 x $580 = $231,420
60 x $2084 = $125,040
12 x $4084 = $49,008

Total = 405,468.00 SGD = $2,175,643.41 HKD

Now divide that by 2 = $1,087,821.2 HKD per sector which is over $140,000 USD per sector.

Are you suggesting they are losing or making NO money? Even if the flight went 70% full they are still taking $98,000 USD per sector. Are SQ's overall operating costs per sector higher than that?

By the way these are prices quoted off their website

Some may argue that travel agents get discounts and that not all tickets are sold at the internet prices. Fair argument but even if a full flight after discounts generated 70% of the revenue the website would generate you're still looking at approx $100,000 USD per sector.
I think you figures are very inflated. First you never sell 60J and 12F for HKG - SIN... usually you end up getting loads like 450EY and maybe 20J and 1F. Plus your price of SGD580 for EY ticket are quite high. I just check on some Hong Kong travel agent site, you can get HKG-SIN return on CX or SQ plus 3 nights of 5 star hotel for HKD2500. So I wonder how much CX actually pocket, maybe HKD600 to 700 each leg? So I think the actual revenue receive maybe less than half of what you have calculated.
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