Congratulations

A new study has found that you're less likely to be involved in a aircraft mishap due to pilot error than two decades ago.
The study, conducted by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in the United States, found that the proportion of mishaps involving pilot error over a 20 year period had reduced by 40 per cent.
The researchers attribute the decline to better training and improvements in technology that aid pilot decision making.
"A 40 per cent decline in pilot error-related mishaps is very impressive," lead author and John Hopkins University professor, Susan P Baker, said.
"Trends indicate that great progress has been made to improve the decision making of pilots and coordination between the aircraft's crew members."
The study, which was published in the journal Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine, examined 558 airline mishaps between 1983 and 2002.
Other key findings included, mishaps relating to bad weather dropped 76 per cent, mishandling of wind or runway conditions declined 78 per cent, and accidents caused by poor crew interaction declined 68 per cent.
It found the most common time for pilot error was during taxiing, takeoff, final approach and landing of the aircraft.
Despite this, the study revealed an increase in the number of mishaps involving errors by air traffic control or ground crews.
It also revealed a jump in the number of mishaps occurring when the aircraft was standing still or being pushed back from the gate, more than doubling from a rate of 2.5 to 6 mishaps per 10 million flights.

Is this because computers now make most of the decisions?

No sh1t ...... pure genius was needed to work that one out

I've never seen a computer decide when to takeoff...it might move the throttles, but a person decides, a computer assists.

"Is this because computers now make most of the decisions?"

Lemme see..... those great computers wanted to fly us right through that big red return about 40 miles in front last week. And yeah.... all three of them great autopilots flying together in LAND3 mode would make the decision to keep on going even when the wind shears at 50 ft? Don't you just love 'em...

Airsupport

While I realise that this comment was made with tongue partly in cheek (I refer to the ), I would like to ask you to name a single decision that a computer makes on board an aircraft. They follow directions and do assigned tasks pretty well but I've yet to see one decide anything on an aircraft.

"I would like to ask you to name a single decision that a computer makes on board an aircraft. They follow directions and do assigned tasks pretty well but I've yet to see one decide anything on an aircraft. "

You're right. They follow directions and still require supervision. One time we were to maintain runway heading, cleared for takeoff. HDG SEL was engaged on the runway prior to hitting TO/GA. After we got airborne and were pulling the gear up, the roll bar commanded a full right turn even with the Heading bug set to the runway heading. At 50' agl!!! If there ever was an automatic takeoff, the automatics WOULD HAVE commenced a turn at 50ft! This was a 777.

"To err is human, to to completely f@*k up takes a computer."

I couldn't find any details of this on the John Hopkins web site but a GA study on there reported Just be careful, you young 'uns!

twistedenginestarter;

No, I couldn't find any reference to the article either, (it was supposed to have been published in the January, 2007 edition of Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine. I think the date cited by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health must have meant January 2008, not 2007.

I would certainly like to know how the conclusions were reached...

Studies less reliable than ever - According to pilots

If I remember tradition rightly, pilot error was attributed as probable cause in roughly 7 out of 10 commercial aviation accidents. So what exactly is meant by a "40% reduction" of "7 out of 10"?

PBL

I think the clue is in the word 'roughly'

Training has improved. Human factors, CRM are all far better understood. Aircraft are more reliable and automation has improved.

The black cloud on the horizon is the accountant. The correct balance between profit and safety is the new challenge.

The view from my seat is that we are all working flat out up to the legal limit. Training has taken a back seat, and the simulator reduced to a "box ticking exercise" with little or no real training input. The aircraft are working flat out with minimum time on the ground everywhere. So are never fixed.

Margins are constantly being eroded by the needs of the shareholder and the accountant. It will not stop until people die.

all imho ofc.

Strange that I feel somewhat less safe flying today (as pax) than I did 20 years ago! This is not based on any scientific study on my part, simply a gut feeling that if the excrement hits the fan I'm no longer so confident that the young pups up front will have sufficient real stick & rudder experience to draw from to fly me out of it. Pilots (and ATCOs too by the way) today are cushioned by the support of and reliance on automation and now perhaps possess only somewhat limited skills. There may be no justification but that's honestly how I feel.

NO it was not made with tongue partly in cheek, it was TOTALLY in cheek.
Personally I do not like these newer Aircraft at all, with lots of computers (and composites), give me a good old DC9 or 727 any day.
By the way, you have of course heard the joke about what makes a perfect cockpit crew?

Of course, 83.2945% of all statistics are made up.

Ehm ... I have a feeling this comment was NOT made tongue in cheek

Does anybody have a link to this document!

The question would be whether they used the same criteria as used in previous studies...

Non pilot speaking, nor am I a statistician or mathematician but ... any number about anything that improves by that percentage of such a short time scale, has to be suspect! If a company improved their profits by such an amount, then I would not believe it either.

Whilst I am prepared to believe that things are better than they were, I am also of the view that the airline biz continues to take too much for granted. They rattle off the 'Safety is our number one concern' but I don't believe all of them (some, not all). It is surveys like this that promote the idea that we are moving steadily into a better world. That is the usually the moment of the greatest danger.