Economic Downturn = No FI Vacancies?
 

Dear All,

The economy is slowing big time, it is more likely then ever that we will be in a recession by Summer. Airlines are starting to suffer:

DUBLIN, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Airline Ryanair <RYA.I> posted a sharper than expected drop in third-quarter net profit on Monday and warned high oil prices, an economic slowdown in the UK and weak sterling meant profits may fall up to 50 percent next year. Europe's biggest low-cost carrier said excluding a one-off gain from the sale of aircraft net profit in the three months to the end of December fell 27 percent to 35 million euros ($52
million) as winter fares fell almost 5 percent.

That was below an average forecast of 41.8 million euros and in line with the lowest estimate in a Reuters poll of 10 analysts. Ryanair stuck to its full-year forecast for a 17.5 percent rise in the year to the end of March. It warned, however, there was a "significant chance" profits would fall in its 2008/2009 business year.

"The European airline sector is presently facing one of these cyclical downturns, with possibility of a "perfect storm" of higher oil prices, poor consumer demand, weaker sterling and higher costs," the airline said in a statement. According to the most optimistic scenario, profit next year
could grow 6 percent to 500 million euros if average ticket prices, or yields, stay flat and oil prices drop to $75 a barrel. "But at our most conservative, if forward oil prices remain at $85, and consumer sentiment/sterling weakness leads to a 5 percent reduction in yields, then profits in the coming year
could fall by as much as 50 percent to as low as 235 million euros (excluding profits from aircraft disposals)," it said. The company also said it planned to spend up to 200 million euros buying back shares which, based on its current share price, would equate to 3 percent of Ryanair's share capital. Ryanair's stock has fallen 18 percent since the start of the year due to fears over the impact of rising energy costs and the company's limited fuel hedging for the year starting April 2008. "We remain essentially unhedged for next year," Ryanair said on Monday.

I know we don't have a crystal ball but against this economic backdrop do you think this spells disaster for FI vacancies or the supposed FI shortage?

By October I will be popping out the system with an FI(R) and will be looking for employment. Ouch. Perhaps I should pull the plug on my dream and not bother with the CPL or FI(R) and just stick to flying as a hobby?

Any thoughts?

MFWF:ok:

Since when do Ryanair dictate the downturn, its a mighty big world out there not just a loco saturated Europe. Go west young man!

Yes!

Firstly, much depends upon where you want to work as an FI. If you're planning Cornwall or the Outer Hebrides, then not so good finding a job, anywhere around London or another large conurbation, much better.

Secondly, October is a long way away for accurate forecasts of PPL training demand.

Thirdly, NEVER forget that MOL has his own agenda and way of doing things. It might just suit his agenda to 'big up' a recession.

Fourthly, October isn't the best time to think of looking for FI work in any economic climate. I started in September and managed to get a few good weeks in before the Winter weather and lack of daylight intruded. A school might take you on on a 'get paid if you fly' basis but probably not on a salary until the Spring. They're going to give priority to their existing FIs. In any event, you normally start out doing trial lessons then convert them yourself into students. You might be lucky and pick up a few students from another instructor who has just left. If you're starting in October, be prepared for a lack of income until the Spring. That said, the relatively leisurely pace might suit to enable you to work on your instructing skills is a more measured way.

If you think you can cope financially, definitely go for it! As you may have read here and elsewhere, instructing will never make you rich. (Money-wise that is, riches beyond measure in other ways...)

TheOddOne

I will be South Coast based - Bournemouth / Old Sarum / Popham / Thruxton / Goodwood would be ideal. Of course I will move wherever the work is.

I could survive on £500 a month between October and Spring if needs be (I have a girlfriend supporting me through the career change).

My head is spinning at the moment as I am making the career change in April and I could still pull out. The heart is saying go for it, the head is saying "are you mad - we are heading for a recession".

It would be interesting to know what the supply and demand situation is like at the moment and if any FTO / Clubs have started forecasting a major downturn in students and therefore instructor requirement. Surely some must plan ahead (even without a functioning Mk1 Crystal Ball, nobody can deny that the economy is heading the wrong way).

Cheers MFWF

Shortage of FI's !!!
 

I have received more unsolicited e-mails from flight schools in the USA looking for Flight Instructors in the past month than I have ever had. These schools are offering salaries and many benifits. The skies and schools here in the southwest of the USA are full of Indian and Chinese students. I agree with the previous comment of "Go West Young Man"

I wouldn't read too much into the Ryanair propaganda mill today - all they're basically saying is that this past year they didn't make as much money as they normally do. They are still in profit. Those in the flight training industry would class ANY profit as a birthday present! But to answer your question, any downturn in the airline industry or any national recession for that matter, if it were to happen, will be unlikely to affect you before October.

VFE.

MFWF, As long as the avarage pay for an FI is £10kpa there will always be a shortage of FIs.

Don't worry, there will be a job for you in October.

I think (based on what I know) that average flight pay for a full time FI(R) these days is slightly more than that figure. Check circa £15K after flight pay. £10K is certainly under the mark methinks. Bottom line is - fight for your terms and conditions... you get nowt for askin' and they can only say "no" so don't get mugged off just because you're a newbie!

VFE.

Maybe not but O'Leary read the aviation market better than the so called aviation professionals did over the last 12 years. Now when O'Leary speaks the industry listens.

Not much sign of an economic downturn on the packed LH flight I was on today from BHX-FRA.

Perhaps people are finally waking up to the true awfulness of flying with Ryanair? Personally I'd sooner eat my own poo than set foot in one of O'Leary's aeroplanes.

Ok VFE

MFWF, As long as the avarage pay for an FI is £15kpa there will always be a shortage of FIs.

Don't worry, there will be a job for you in October.

And VFE is right, make sure you get a decent deal - don't fly for free, don't pay for your checkouts or your uniform. Apply to a range of schools to get a measure of their packages. And you will love it.

Thanks for all the replies.

Well here I sit, another dull day in one of her Majesty's magnolia offices, desk bound and bored to tears. Economic downturn or not I am going for it! I have been flying since I was 17 courtesy of an RAF Scholarship and although I haven't flown for a year due to a few little snags I am itching to get airborne again.

£10k - £15k would be fine as long as long as it is on retainer and not OTE!

Thanks again.

MFWF :ok:

There is a shortage of instructors in the UK. The trick is to be prepared to go anywhere within these sceptred isles to get the first job, although it may entail leaving family, friends etc. and drinking different beer for a few months. Once you have some experience under your belt, you can look around for something closer to home.

MFWF

'as long as it is retainer not OTE'

Sorry to disappoint you again but I'm afraid most schools pay by the hour flown. Some will offer salaries or £500 per month plus flying pay but they tend to go to the more experienced instructors (derestricted with No Instrument restiction ). It will take you about a year to reach this level of experience at a reasonable school.

At the last school I taught at there were no intrument instuctors becuase it cost £1000 to get the restriction removed and the school only paid £5 per hour more for the lessons. On basic economics the hour builders figured they would never get it back.

Go and talk to some cfis and find out what they say.

There have been threads on flying pay on PPRUNE.

If you want real money do your FI at DEFTS and try to get a job there after. I believe they pay reasonably well (22K+).

Good luck.

Not strictly true about the retainers Mr.Greens.

As an FI(R) I had offers for a retainer of £500 and £750 per month..... together with flight pay above the £10 mark. But not without haggling!

VFE.

Working at DEFTS would be outstanding!

I graduated from JEFTS in Nov 2000 and have a huge amount of respect for the instructors there. If it were possible to do the FI rating at DEFTS and work there I would bite their hand off. I think Babcock are the bods I would need to contact?

Anyone have any contacts there? fish fish fish

Cheers

MFWF

What recession? The club I am flying at has not had so many students for several years. And when not flying I drive for a parcel firm - and given the amount of stuff we are delivering and the rate of expansion of the business accross the UK, I can assure it doesn't feel to me like we are in a recession!

Fact there is a world-wide shortage of instructors, especially experienced ones who are prepared to work for minimal wages, but a shortage nevertheless!

Just like there's a shortage of airline pilots - yeah, experienced airline pilots!

VFE.

There is a reason that airlines prefer experienced pilots and it's not too hard to work out. I think that the current generation of wannabees needs to accept that the halcyon period when airlines hired pilots with just the basic licence requirements was a one-off. It's now back to the hard slog, as it used to be.