KingAir crash near Chigwell?

[Above The Clouds]

littco
Also the prop you can see in the video detached from the engine segment looks very much like it feathered at the time,

That would be difficult to assess from the video footage as the engines / gearboxes may have separated during the initial impact with the blades then adopting new positions.

Impact damage to the propellors, engine compressor / turbine blades and main engine compressor shafts will highlight if an engine was developing power or windmilling at the time of impact.

[Noiffsorbuts]

Local buzz all seems to suggest both engines functioning...took off but didnt climb..then tanked in going flat out....which all seems consistent with the massive destruction.
If that is correct then clearly a control or instrument issue...
A blocked pitot static as someone has suggested could have been all it took to cause sufficient distraction and disorientation.
On a separate issue...just wonder what sort of death in service the poor families of the unfortunate pilots will get?...anyone know what the going GA rate is....? Between half a million and a million I hope....thread creep I know but highly relevant.

[Above The Clouds]

Noiffsorbuts
Local buzz all seems to suggest both engines functioning...took off but didnt climb..then tanked in going flat out....which all seems consistent with the massive destruction.

Thats very interesting as it stacks up with my earlier theory from the video footage of possible instrument failure during departure in foggy conditions resulting in a high speed impact.

Above The Clouds
My personal thoughts looking at the video is a high speed impact which would not be conducive with an engine failure and loss of control occurring at a relatively low speed.

Given the nearest metar at the time;
EGSS 030920z auto 35004kt 0600 R04/0750 FG VV/// 11/10 Q1015

I would be interested with investigating possible instrument failure leading to disorientation shortly after take-off, main engine shaft and propellor damage will provide evidence of engine failure or under power at the time of the crash.

Above The Clouds
A slow increasing pitch up failure on ADI, missed fail flag on ADI, pitot static problem ?

[littco]

blocked pitot? really.

Airspeed alive, 80knots and Vr calls would all show a blocked pitot up. 1 Pitot maybe, 2 unlikely.. You would still have altitude reading even if pitot was blocked, so you could tell if you where climbing or not..

Keep wings level, pitch to 10 degrees and not having air speed indication shouldn't be an issue..

[Noiffsorbuts]

Littco.....i dont disagree with any of that. However this was a single pilot operation with the "co pilot" not current on type just sitting in as pilot assistant...which so far as I am aware does not require any type familiarity or prior training.
I have never flown single crew commercially with a pilot assistant. I somehow doubt ( but might be wrong) that these calls are made in these circumstances...........are they?....anyone?

[littco]

Single pilot it may have been but you have 2 experience pilots, both who would have extensive experience of company SOP's , even if the safety pilot was just a supernumerary on that day I would think he would be running through the SOP's himself anyway, they may not truly relevant as not tyoe rated but still relevant in this case of speeds.. maybe just maybe an event happened and a false positive or false negative proposition arose in which a true SP would have not been available too and just added to an already difficult situation..

Who knows, just a thought..

[compressor stall]

All interesting theories about multiple coincidental failures.

But honestly, the most likely scenario that fits the wreckage trail and aforementioned witness accounts is the Somatogravic Illusion. Look here https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5226668/199003089.pdf

Impact at 183kts and a 150m wreckage trail shortly after takeoff. Uncanny resemblance.

More known for dark moonless nights, but equally well can occur in fog.

Admittedly the PIC was by reports experienced and less likely to fall into this trap.

[ika]

Originally Posted by compressor stall

All interesting theories about multiple coincidental failures.

But honestly, the most likely scenario that fits the wreckage trail and aforementioned witness accounts is the Somatogravic Illusion. Look here https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5226668/199003089.pdf

Somatogravic alone in an experienced pilot, even in fog unlikely (but not impossible), I think most would agree.

Aircraft likely to have a mix of electrical and vacuum instruments, so no single failure likely to take all out.

But here's a thought. A while ago, picking up my Aztec from maintenance which had over-run, having not flown for over a month (due to said maintenance). I watched the airspeed slowly drift back as I climbed over the upwind end of the runway. It had been fine increasing on the runway. Altimeter and VSI indicated I had stopped climbing. I checked throttles and props and pushed everything forward and checked engine instruments and all seemed (and sounded, as far as I could recall) normal but I was aware if something was wrong with engines manifold might be close to atmospheric and props might be turning at governor speed but not absorbing much power. I worried about stalling but it felt (as far as I could recall) to be flying ok. I diagnosed it as a pitot/static issue guessing something had moved into the system (insects later found) and confirmed GPS ground speed was credible and completed a circuit using GPS ground speed and visual reference.

Now if there was a problem with pitot/static system (I assume King air has twin probes etc, but both could have been blocked, or covers left on or something had worked into common piping) causing similar symptoms, falling airspeed, erroneous altimeter reading, coupled with sense of climbing in fog with no visual reference, there would be a strong tendency to push nose down.

Yes the AI might show level flight but if the AI says you're level, which it probably would do anyway if it failed, and your senses and ASI are telling you you're over pitching and about to stall, which do you trust instaneously while you figure it out?

Easy to say from here keep climbing but you can't see the ground in fog, you do know that if you stall you won't climb, you want both airspeed and height. In fog immediately after takeoff the problem might not be so apparent.

As I say, just a thought, prompted by the somatogravic suggestion. If it's not helpful please feel entirely free to disregard without pointing out my idiocy!

[Noiffsorbuts]

Having observed pitot static failure scenarios on take off in the simulator many times I have to say that the majority resulted in CFIT.
The instinct to deal with perceived decaying airspeed by pitching down to avoid stall invariably was stronger than following the AI which was screaming pitch up!

Of course in the subsequent debrief everyone kicked themselves....but in those split critical seconds you have a decision to make....something is wrong....which instrument do I trust?

With no visual reference and I doubt GPWS in this old workhorse (???) to warn "dont sink" or "terrain terrain pull up" the dice would be loaded against surviving such a failure.

I personally think external probe covers are accidents waiting to happen. We had a simple rule in the major airline i worked for....Dont use them!!! For sure if you have particular reason to use them OK due sand storm or being parked up for a long time OK but make it the exception.
In GA i have observed inconsistent and poor discipline over their use....and have lost count of how many times there are covers that have gone missing with the result that some probes are not covered and others are ( which on a poor pre flight could and to my certain knowledge have been missed)

[Pace]

I think CFIT at high speed into terrain fits the horizontal spread of the crash parts and total destruction of the airframe rather than a vertical impact
I would be surprised if such an experienced pilot with a MC jet pilot alongside as F0 would take off with the pitot covers on ?
It is second nature to cross check the airspeed indications on the take off roll.
I had frozen pitot tubes where the pitot was switched off by accident and instincts are to push forward especially without outside reference.
But with pitot tube covers left on I cannot see two experienced pilots accelerating and rotating with no airspeeed indications!
If there was moisture in the pitot system and it froze soon after takeoff it's possible

[Pace]

ATC

The video whilst pretty gruesome appears quite revealing in the great distance the wreckage was dispersed and the fragmentation of the aircraft!
This would indicate high speed and close to horizontal travel!
It would be informative to know what the temperature was at that time in the morning as its possible the aircraft entered cloud / fog very quickly if it was freezing its possible that this MAY have been an ASI induced accident?
IMC so low to the ground gives little time for the brain to work out what's happening?
I know that early flights it also takes a bit to get from the in bed mode to everything happening at once mode!
I don't know about others but empty legs are the legs we will hand fly or do things as crew we wouldn't do with PAX?

Pace

[littco]

Originally Posted by Pace

ATC


I don't know about others but empty legs are the legs we will hand fly or do things as crew we wouldn't do with PAX?

Pace

Like let a saftey pilot or owner fly.. I am not saying in any shape this is the case here especially with the weather the way it was but in single pilot ops with safety pilots or owners in the right seat it does happen.

[Pace]

Littco

If we have empty legs below RVSM we will sometimes fly the whole flight manually as its good practice!
If I have a low time FO it's a good time to give him hands on experience or some training!
Both these pilots were highly experienced so not the case of a private owner in the right seat having a go )
My jets are 2 crew and we don't have owners ( PAX ) up front but in my twin piston days single pilot yes

Pace

[Noiffsorbuts]

I imagine that a "pilot assistant" , particularly an experienced one like this would normaly handle comms. ATC recording will reveal who was on the radio so a pretty good pointer to who was flying the sector i would have thought as the "pilot assistant" would not have taken both controls and radio.

[Chronus]

The fatal crash of another BE Super 200, operated by Jet Express Services, carrying members of OSU basketball team, back in January 2001 near Strasburg, Colorado, bears certain similarities to this accident.
The Jet Express aircraft was piloted by an ATP holder with more than 5000hrs of which 2500 hrs were on type. The right seat was occupied by another pilot , not a required flight member.
In its final report the NTSB concluded that the probable cause was pilot`s spatial disorientation resulting from his failure to maintain positive manual flight control with the available flight instrumentation. Contributry cause was the failure of the a/c electrical power during IMC.

[Noiffsorbuts]

pIlots now named.
Commander " recently awarded his captaincy" and was a "PPL examiner". Been with LEA since June.
I had wrongly inferred from initial statement that he was a TRE on type but appears not so from press release. Maybe experience levels not as we first thought?

http://www.ilfordrecorder.co.uk/news...amed_1_4264441

[Pace]

She said: “My daughter said to me, “That plane doesn’t sound right”, and then the next thing we heard was a crash and the house shook.

What makes an aircraft not sound right? No engines with a loud whistling sound? One sick engine? an aircraft in a high speed descent? The plane doesn't sound right could cover a multitude of things?

Maybe this is one for the AAIB to sort? Very sad when the pilots are identified as it brings it more personalised

Pace

[Dan Winterland]

But honestly, the most likely scenario that fits the wreckage trail and aforementioned witness accounts is the Somatogravic Illusion. Look here https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5226668/199003089.pdf

Impact at 183kts and a 150m wreckage trail shortly after takeoff. Uncanny resemblance.

More known for dark moonless nights, but equally well can occur in fog.

Admittedly the PIC was by reports experienced and less likely to fall into this trap

My thoughts exactly. And having read the accident report from the 2000 Blackbushe crash, I suspect that was the prime cause as well.

Somatogravic alone in an experienced pilot, even in fog unlikely (but not impossible), I think most would agree.

I have been studying the somatogravic illusion in some detail for a while now and one thing that is obvious is that it is no respecter of experience. Of some 180 crashes I have details of, the experience range is from 100 hours to 27,000 with the average being around 6000.

[Noiffsorbuts]

An interesting theory.....i suppose a close cousin of " the leans" which i have experienced several times but overcame immediately by forcing myself back onto following the AI.
The pilot assistant had many years commercial instrument flying under his belt as an ATPL holder. One wonders just how much instrument experience the captain had? Apparently his first command and a PPL examiner......rather suggests much of his " considerable experience" would have been gained at a PPL level flying around under visual flight rules.
One of the pilots might have suffered the illusion but surely not both?
Shame this old machine didnt even have a cvr. We may never know what happened....which would be the worst outcome.

[Pace]

This is the problem i have with professional crew. Takeoffs are briefed, airspeed is crosschecked as are the V Speeds and then we pitch to 10 degrees and the pilot monitoring is always checking the pilot flying. So I find it hard to comprehend especially with a takeoff into fog or very low cloud.

Balance that with the fact that from the video it does look like a high speed almost horizontal descent into the ground rather than a stall spin situation that its hard to comprehend what went wrong?

my mind goes to another accident with two highly experienced crew where the aircraft was on top of low scud cloud turning base one wing was dipped into the cloud which contained obscured tall tress so it could be anything

Single pilot OK the pilot was distracted overloaded or whatever but both crew were well trained and would operate to the SOPs so what else would cause a CFIT into terrain as that is what it appears to be ?? Unless being empty someone was fooling around which has happened in past events

Sadly operating OCAS out of a field like Stapleford and considering the total destruction of the airframe and probable lack of communication on the radio we may never know

Pace