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Mexico City Learjet Crash . . .

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Mexico City Learjet Crash . . .

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Old 12th Nov 2008, 09:42
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Looking at the radar transscipt (excellent, I must say!), they depicted the LearJet on their screen as a 'LJ25'. So, is it confirmed that the aircraft they used actaully was a LJ45 and not the 25-model? This would be quite a different airplane...
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Old 13th Nov 2008, 21:03
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I'm translating from Spanish:

"MEXICO DF, nov 12 (Reuters) - Experts in aviation accidents from the US haven't found any evidence of sabotage on the Mexican goverment airplane that plummeted down in the capital, costing the life of interior minister ...."

"... As in today, nothing in the DFR, CVR or any other retrieved evidence points to sabotage or criminal activity ..."

"... mexican goverment workers indicated last week there was no evidence of explosives ..."

"... nine people on board and another five that were on the ground were killed ..."

"... Mexico invited experts from the US and the UK in the investigation ..."

---------

Seems the almost exact spot where it crashed (a couple of office buildings in the city) was also the scenario of a helicopter crash not long ago and a general area of (somewhat) frequent small planes crashes.

No idea of the reasons other than obviously in the approach path of a busy airport.

Seems the airplane was a new and underused Learjet 45 manufactured in 2000 and was put for sale 2003 HB-VMC. The pilot had 30 years of flying experience (over 12.000h).

Mexican CISEN purchased it Apr 2004 with 1595 hours of use (1321 cycles). Original Honeywell TFE 731-20AR-2B engines, serials P111141 (1595 hours) and P111178 (1590 hours).

Several sources indicate that there is no evidence or likely scenario involving sabotage, but no explanation yet as to why the sudden on-the-air nosedive to the ground. Turbulence by the nearby commercial jetliner is a possibility.
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Old 14th Nov 2008, 01:59
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arguments

Koudelka,
Nothing wrong with forwarding hypothesis.
Sabotage/Attack by drug dealers is an hypothesis. Wake turbulence is another hypothesis.
When you have two hypothesis, how do you discard one and support the other?.
In one word: evidence

What evidence has been found supporting the sabotage hypothesis?. None so far. US investigators reviewed the evidence and indicated that no evidence of sabotage has been found. Does a bomb or missile leave evidence?. You bet they do!. Plenty.
Has the sabotage theory been discarded?. Not yet. There may be other ways to sabotage an airplane other than bombs or missiles. So the investigation must continue.

However, does the wake turbulence hypothesis has supporting evidence?. Yes, indeed. Learjet getting very close to a large airplane (3.9 miles vs recommended 5 miles) and this very near the ground. There have been other crashes in similar circumstances.
Is the evident conclusive that it was wake turbulence?. No, not yet.
But the weight of evidence at this time supports the turbulence, wheras there is no evidence of sabotage.

As I said, the investigation continues. There may be other hypothesis later. But in order to arrive at a logical conclusion it is necessary that the evidence supports such conclusion.
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Old 14th Nov 2008, 21:02
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eleven months shrink into eleven days

seems that turbulence is a final conclusion for the mexican goberment, I wonder what experts have to say about it in this forum, four miles is still a lot of distance for me, but I am not an expert about aircraft...
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Old 14th Nov 2008, 21:42
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Mexican Preliminary Report

http://www.vanguardia.com.mx/SACS/XS...tacion_sct.pdf Report is in Spanish.

Clear crew indications from CVR they ran into B767's wake . . .

This is Google translation;

Recording booth:

Copilot lower at 180 Charlie Mike
Pilot: Do you know what? Give me a dot, Alvarito huh?, please
Phone: Just a dot

Recording booth:

Copilot lower at 180 Charlie Mike
Pilot: Do you know what? Give me a dot, Alvarito huh?, please
Phone: Just a dot

Lopez says Meyer ( "the dot may be an indication of Altitude adjustment or a set point to the system of flaps that at the time was set at 20 degrees for landing at the IMTA)

Co-pilot: Yes, you have nothing further to 200 (in reference to reduce speed to 200 knots)

Pilot: We strike the nose
Phone: No, no , let it now

Pilot: Because we are close to leveling, right?
Co-pilot: Yes (at the moment is that the command pilot of the aircraft requested the opinion of the co-pilot to use the rudder to lift the nose of the aircraft and proceed well and reduce the speed that was to reach 180 knots to had been instructed by air traffic services. They remain 00:44:12)

The traffic controller instructed the Mexican to contact the control tower at the IMTA to receive landing instructions.

Answer; Having Mexican 692.

Recording booth:

Pilot: There is already stabilized
Phone: OK
Pilot: There is
Phone: down (referring to the flaps had fallen to the position of 20 degrees to which they had been ordered)

00:45:05 hours

The talk continues in the cabin:

Pilot: I will go to 160 by that I bring back (in clear reference to it had realized that the aircraft was heavy ahead)
Phone: It is beginning to turn
Pilot: So it is 5 miles from us
Pilot: I get eight eight, please
Phone: Eight eight hundred

00:45:57:

Traffic control service educates air transportation VMC to contact the control tower at the IMTA.

Pilot: Good Morning, thanks

Mexicana was the 1692 nine thousand 300 feet in altitude and at a speed of 168 knots. The VMC was nine thousand and 700 feet with a speed of 209 knots.

Recording booth:

Pilot: Oral turbulence of the latter
Phone: Oh GUEY
Pilot: Oh bastard
On the enviroment: What happened rea

00:43:13

Recording booth:

The pilot makes clear reference to the turbulence left by the ship that will precede it.

00:46:18 hours

Phone: Oh bastard
Pilot: Ay, ay
Pilot: Alvaro, what we do, Alvaro
Phone: Leave it, Leave it, Leave
Pilot: Alvaaro Tuya
Phone: Oh bastard
Pilot: Ay, ay
Pilot: Son of your #$@%! mother
Pilot: No Alvaro

00:46:23

Enviroment: similar to the sound of the alarm speaker altitude, while the alarm system alerted to local terrain.

TERRAIN TERRAIN

Copilot: Doisite

END
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Old 15th Nov 2008, 03:17
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The transcript posted by robbreid was also published by the UNIVERSAL newspaper today (I have a copy in Spanish).
According to the newspaper this transcript was the result of the report made by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB).

The translation made by Google is not bad (I am surprised).
Reading it in Spanish is more dramatic, though.

The dialoge in the cockpit makes clear reference of the turbulence left by the Mexicana 767:
Pilot: Wow! the turbulence of that
(Translated by Google in robbreid note as "Oral turbulence of the latter")...huh?

Todayīs evidence gives more support to the wake turbulence theory
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Old 15th Nov 2008, 15:34
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Dramatic indeed!

Pilot and co-pilot last words are dramatic, and this put an end to the boycott theorhy that was run on the media since the day of the crash. Now, one important thing to consider is the aviation rules in mexico today, an accident like this could happend again with such trafic tolerances.
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Old 15th Nov 2008, 15:55
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Falling Lear caught by CCTV

VIDEO: Turbulence from 767 suspected in Mexican Learjet crash
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Old 15th Nov 2008, 16:14
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May I ask that when there is non english material of interest, it is copied here in original for some volunteer to translate.

It is really awkward having to read automated translations, considering the original is in a broadly spoken language like Spanish.
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Old 15th Nov 2008, 17:40
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Eerie surveillance video captures planes last moments

CCTV:MEXICO CITY,two things to look at here,the top right of the screen at around 19 seconds and then the reflection of the explosion on the helicopter to the left.

The turbulent wake of a larger plane likely caused the crash of a government jet that killed Mexico's second-most powerful official, investigators said Friday, as they released a recording transcript showing the frantic pilots struggling to regain control of the plane.

A preliminary investigation found the pilots were slow to follow the control tower's instructions to reduce speed and appeared to be nearly one nautical mile too close behind a Boeing 767-300 on the same flight path to Mexico City's international airport, Transportation Secretary Luis Tellez said at a news conference.

He said the pilots appeared to be unfamiliar with the Learjet 45, although one had 15 years flying experience and the other had 37 years.

"Whoa! What turbulence!" Capt. Martin de Jesus Oliva says, according to a transcript of a recorded conversation between the pilots released by the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board.

The pilots then swear and seem flustered about what to do.

"Alvaro what do we do, Alvaro?" Oliva says to his co-pilot, Alvaro Sanchez y Jimenez, whom officials say had more experience flying Learjets.

The co-pilot says, "Let me do it! Let me do it!"

Oliva agrees to let his co-pilot takeover, but moments later is heard swearing and then saying "Nooooo! Alvaro!"

Sanchez then says "Oh my God!" and screaming is heard in the background before the tape goes silent.

Seven seconds later, the jet smashed into rush-hour traffic in a posh Mexico City business district, killing 14, including Interior Secretary Juan Camilo Mourino, the equivalent of Mexico's vice president and one of the closest confidants of President Felipe Calderon.

Also killed was former anti-drug prosecutor Jose Luis Santiago Vasconcelos, who had been the target of at least one previous assassination plot.

Tellez's detailed account of the crash was aimed at quelling widespread rumors that the plane was brought down by powerful and increasingly violent drug cartels. The Mexican government has said from the start that the crash appeared to be an accident, but rumors of sabotage have persisted.

Tellez said officials found no explosives or evidence of alcohol or drugs in the pilots' bodies. Officials also confirmed that the plane's motors were working normally, even as the plane fell from the evening sky.

Wake turbulence was the most "solid theory," he said.

The Learjet 45 and a commercial flight from Buenos Aires were 4.15 nautical miles apart. International standards recommend at least 5 nautical miles to avoid dangerous wake turbulence _ unstable air that can make it very difficult to control a plane, especially when landing.

The 7-ton Learjet would be especially vulnerable to wake turbulence produced by a 175-ton Boeing.

A video camera on a nearby building caught the plane's horrifying plunge, showing it nose-diving at a 42 degree angle, officials said. An eye witness also reported seeing the plane go "belly up," officials said.

Tellez said authorities are still conducting tests to confirm the preliminary findings.

The news conference was the first time in Mexico's aviation history that a transcript of a black box recording was made public, a continued effort to hold a transparent investigation.

Authorities have held a very public investigation aided by 50 experts including top aviation investigators from the U.S. and Great Britain.

WATCH THE VIDEO HERE
LiveLeak.com - Eerie surveillance video captures planes last moments
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Old 15th Nov 2008, 23:50
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In bold those original expressions I don't know how to properly translate.

29:50.383 RADIO TWR MEX: Costera two five one five right twenty one cero terrestre
CAM: Unintelligible background noise, similar to conversation voices
29:53.929 RADIO: SLI 2515 right and golf, twenty one zero costera two five one five good day
29:59.32 CAM: Sound similar to background voices and laughter
29:57.28 Sounds similar to clap, clap, clap
29:58.059 PILOT: Holly! the turbulence from that one!
29:59.59 COPILOT: Wow dude.
29.59.716 Sound similar to tr, tr, tr
29.59.43 Sound similar to autopilot disconnection (normal when it's disconnected by one of the pilots)
29.59.44 PILOT: Ow, son-of-a-**** (Expression that denotes great effort)
30.00.00 CAM: what happened Moti?
30:02.250 COPILOT: Ow son-of-a-**** (Expression that denotes great effort)
30:02.50 PILOT: Ow, ow ...
30:03.016 PILOT: Alvaro, what do we do, Alvaro? (Expression that denotes great effort)
30:03.598 COPILOT: unintelligible (denoting great effort)
30:03.598 CAM: unintelligible voices denoting great effort
30:04.472 CAM: Sound similar to the altitud alarm
30:04.473 RADIO1 TWR MEX: Mexicana 845 authorized (unintelligle) left wind calm
30:05.586 COPILOT: Give it to me (Let me have it), Give it to me, Give it to me, Give it to me (Reflecting authority)
30:05.586 PILOT: Yours Alvaro (Apparently transferring control to the other pilot).
30:08.307 with calm wind authorized 5 Left
30:10.397 (Apparently the pilot): Son of a f*** b**** (Expression that denotes great effort)
30:10.397 (Apparently the pilot): Nooooo, Alvaro!
30:10.399 CAM Sound similar to altitud alarm
30:11.272 CAM: GPWS Terrain, terrain
30:11.350 (Apparently the copilot): My God.
30:12.600 CAM: Screams

In the original Spanish it's pretty clear they had found some "unexpected" hell of a turbulence they tried to fight with basically no success. It is also a bit more clear they perhaps they weren't too sure how to overcome the situation as they didn't have that much experience in the particular type, as reported by the investigation authorities that analyzed the CVR and FDR.

Last edited by justme69; 16th Nov 2008 at 04:52.
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Old 16th Nov 2008, 08:33
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Being a Gringo, I am at a loss

but

DOT...could that mean, FLY A DOT HIGHER? As in the ILS? Maybe someone wanted to fly the glideslope a DOT HIGHER to avoid wake? Maybe the 767 was on the high side too?

I do recall a much bigger plane than a Lear getting flipped and crashing...DC10 in front of a DC9...the DC9 lost.

OUCH.
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Old 16th Nov 2008, 11:13
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Hi seven:

It should be translated as 1 point rather than 1 dot and even 1 point doesn't show the real meaning. The PF is asking for the first notch of flaps as they are slowing down to 180kts as requested by ATC. The PNF tells the PF that he is going to give him flaps1 once below 200kts. They are also descending and the PF asks the PNF: "should I bring the nose up?" (to slow down I guess) and the PNF says that not yet, "but we are about to level off, don't we?", the PF replies...

Looks like the PF is new to the type or something and is constantly seeking advise from PNF, but he is well aware that during the descent at over 200kts they came close to the preceding 763 and aimed for 160kts to increase separation when suddenly they hit the 763 wake.

Hope that the "dot" and the "struck nose" issues are more clear now.

Regards.
Diego
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Old 16th Nov 2008, 21:24
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Being from Spain, and having been " informed " by our national newspapers and having read the article on this accident on "El Universal" which I understand is a respected Mexican newspaper, I just cannot help but being extremely angered at how they have decided that without any doubt this accident is to be blamed on the pilots of the LR45.

So the situation is the Mexican authorities hand over all the transcripts and flight data ( just waiting to see before the live audio of their last words is all over for everybody with the taste for it, and for the families of our deceased colleagues to have to hear forever ), so that the very knwoledgeable journalists decide who is to blame in an air transport accident not even two weeks after it has happened.

Now, I don't really know who's fault was this terrible accident, but I think that these my colleagues suffered a terrible enough dead, for their names to be dragged through the mud by people that wouldn't distinguish a plane from a toad if it landed on their backyard, because thay cannot defend themselves now and it is very convenient to end the investigation like this.

May all rest in peace, the passengers, the people on the ground, and the Pilots.
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Old 17th Nov 2008, 14:58
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XC-VMC Lear 45

I believe the pressure exerted on the Mexican Government to release information to attempt to quell unrest in an untrusting public, was far greater to National Security than the families of those lost.

Considering it was Mexican Government jet, in the service of their Nation, carrying Drug Czar VIP's at a time of immense violence and assassination of police, judges, and Govt. officials throughout Mexico.

As for the actual information released, it is factual the Lear failed to slow when requested by ATC, and were gaining on a much slower moving B767.

There are four previous private jet accidents, with completed investigations, brought down by following airliners too closely. So although the completed investigation is far off, the implied cause is clear, though yet to be confirmed.
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Old 18th Nov 2008, 03:10
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Confusion

Elias, I think you are confusing what is happening.

First: The Mexican government is not "handing over all transcripts and flight data so the journalist decide who is to blame".
Mexican authorities had two options (a) carry out all the investigation themselves in complete secrecy and give the results many months from now or (b) be open, invite other Countries to participate in the investigation and provide periodic updates to the public.
They decided to do the latter and an my opinion, this is the way to go. The information the aeronautical authorities have provided has been extremely valuable because it is not based on opinions but on facts.

Second: it is incorrect to state that the investigation has concluded and "it is very convenient to end the investigation like this". The investigators have repeated many times it will take months to close the investigation. Updates are updates. They are NOT the conclusion.

I agree that many times journalist tend to misrepresent the facts (at least in this case, but there are other cases as well) and also that they lack knowledge to provide sensible opinions. However, democracy and freedom of speech allow that just about everyone can give their opinion even if incorrect. Actually we (the participants of this forum) are also giving opinions and truth be told, in many cases they are not better that those of the journalists.
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Old 18th Nov 2008, 15:41
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Info released;

At a Mexican Govt press conference, it was stated the Lear was 4.15 miles, and 1 minute 12 seconds behind the B767, it remained at that distance for 15 seconds.

Witness accounts stated the lear then turned clockwise on its axis, and dropped sharply belly up at 42 degrees. All systems of the lear were noted as operating normally until impact.

Mexicans Doubt Plane Crash was an Accident
In a survey, most Mexicans including Government officials, still believe this was more than an accident. . . . to be continued . . .
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Old 21st Nov 2008, 15:40
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Reasons to believe this was not an accident are growing, I can only submit you to the most respected weekly journal and the most respected jounalists in mexico www.proceso.com.mx , sorry it is only in spanish and my apologies for turning this forum into a political one but I hate when people blame on inocent men when they canīt even defend themselves.
Media still mentions the learjet falling in flames, and for me is curios why Mr Tellez declared an accident even when the firemen havenīt finished their work, just two hours after the crash.
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Old 23rd Nov 2008, 14:59
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Winston Churchill's quote:

A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject
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Old 23rd Nov 2008, 17:59
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In the CCTV video of the Lear falling from the sky , although brief and only visable in two frames , it clearly shows the aircraft is not in flames !
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