Nauseating resignation or pragmatic pessimism - call it what you will. Boom is always followed by bust.
While there are great opportunities for pilots in the USA now (and if I was 40 years younger I would be there in a heartbeat), in time the USA will implode, just like every hegemony has done since the ancients.
I am not advocating that pilots should be defeatist. In fact if you don’t leverage the current situation to your maximum advantage you are pussies. But this boom is not like herpes; it’s more like true love.

Depends on the incentive. Look at the 20 years between 1939 and 1959. In 1939 the DC 3 was state of the art. By 1959 no one was building large piston aircraft

I didn’t read this thread completely but I’m confident that’s the oddest statement within it. A meteor could end the evolving, unprecedented pilot demand too.

If Asia picks up next year it will be carnage IMO.

Not if Asia picks up next year, when Asia picks up. Nah not going to China, no way, look at how they treated expats during Covid! Nekminnit USD $20,000 to $30,000 a month tax paid, 3 on 2 off, yeah, nah? Oh wait reverse bases offered with X bonus. Hang on here’s a sign on bonus.

Its a matter of when in my humble opinion.

:)

If the Chinese keep playing with their crackers it will be carnage for sure. If we are lucky it will only affect the Asian travel industry. If we are unlucky, bury your gold under the house and dust off that old push bike.

Not just the Pilbara trains either. I've worked Driver-Only freight for well over a decade and love it. Though I'm not the most personable person. In Australia DOO freight runs from Kalgoorlie to Perth (without any supervisory system either), from Brisbane-Townsville (supervised by ATP & AWS), and both V/Line & CountryLink regional passenger trains in VIC/NSW are DOO as well, with the exception of the Broken Hill Xplorer - and that's only due to the distance & shift length.

Why wouldn't they? If you want to fly and the $$ are right, there's no practical difference between having "the system" monitor you and a human. The vast majority of train driver's who work DOO thoroughly enjoy it. You make your cuppa, you put your Spotify on, get comfortable and watch the world go by for 10-12 hours. If you have an ergonomic cab design (notany locomotive designed by an American...), it is genuinely enjoyable, comfortable and relaxing. As above, I've done DOO for 12 years and the only times I've missed having a Coey were where I had to wait for a second Driver to come out by car to shunt out a defective wagon, a rare event in itself, whereas with two on board we could have done it then and there.

Passengers want someone up the front who has a vested interest in the aircraft getting there safely. End of story.

Crew costs are between 13-15% of operating costs (including cabin crew). The driver is not there. No pun intended.

Funny how we have auto land but no auto take off, have a think about that.

Chasing it hard for another 5-700k just results in retiring earlier - I can see why they do it. Throw in a tax rate of only 27% for these guys and it's raining money. Of course you've never met any that only pay 27% tax either - face palm

There are big UAVs been taking off without a pilot for years and Airbus has also done fully automatic taxi and takeoff tests, Admittedly pilots were on board, as obviously we are not quite ready to let an A350 sized machine loose on a public airport without some on-board supervision...yet.
Why would they bother with the development costs if they did not have a game plan for the future? Right now they are saying that the intent is not to replace the pilot in the cockpit...yet

Like I said, we do not have have auto take off but auto land has been around for decades.

Manufacturers test and develop technology for lots of reasons. Google Glass?

Those that think nothing has changed in the last 20-30 years have forgotten the single most important thing that is driving self driving vehicles, navigation systems. The self contained navigation system that with very little input can guide an aircraft from gate to gate without any issue. GPS is already accurate and reliable enough for all aviation applications. This can be further be refined to cm accuracy using mobile phone towers alone, forget needing fancy GBAS. The future is already here, and they are developing it agressively.

Just because we've stuck with two pilots for 30 years means nothing much. Trains had two drivers, stoker on the foot plate with multiple conductors and brakeman for 100 years, now theres only one driver and no one else. In reality trains could easily go crewless tomorrow, just needs a bit of spending.

How many pilots did we have before 1992?

When a train stops, it stops, it is in a safe state. Similar to a car or bus or truck. Not so an aircraft.

Yet they are not. REALITY versus possibility.

You don't think that the reasons preventing that are not the same ones that will also hold up "no pilot" aircraft?

Would you say that cargo ships are easier to automate than aircraft? Two dimensional movement, thousands of miles of almost empty ocean between ports. Simply put a "pilot" on at each port as is done now anyway. So why do you think that has not happened? Now apply that to aviation.

Not always. When an unattended (or a big-enough manned) freighter loses brake pipe pressure, you are entirely reliant on how tight the seals are in the braking system to prevent it buggering off down the hill and emulating BHP's runaway. Yes, it'll stop when it has a problem, but unless it has spring-applied park brakes, there's no guarantee it'll stay stopped if the gradient is sufficient....

When that happens, how many paying passengers are affected?

Well Taiwan’s operational tempo has exhausted its supply of military pilots. Many will be clawed back from local airlines.

Asian demand for pilots will be insatiable and demand not met. Of course that’s dependant on CCP blockade of Taiwan or a dinosaur killing meteor. And just for the record, I think it’s ill-advised for Australian pilots to take mainland contracts when they return. The potential to be a political scape goat is too high.

Fully automated trains have existed for years, Gatwick had them between terminals in the 1980s. I was referring to Australias rail system could be automated if enough money was spent. Aircraft are far easier to automate than ships or cars, far less chaos in the system. I worked with a group that has been flying fully automated drones since the late 1990s, ie they can fly from a to b just by being told where to go.

The issue prior with large train networks going automated is the issue of interaction with other things that might cross or block tracks. Visual recognition systems now have covered that area making it possible. Planes dont have these issues. By the way the new Sydney line is driverless.

In anycase I never said airliners would be fully automated anytime soon, they will just drop to single pilot operation with ai assisstance, most likely within 10 years.

That is hilarious. Not a chance of that timeline.

I think you'll find that the delevopment of alternative fuels is a far higher priority than pilotless aircraft for airlines (and therefore manufacturers).

The financial rewards are just that much greater that the R&D spend can be better justified.

The mindset here goes a long ways in explaining the predicament of Aussie pilots. Proclamations of wild doomsday scenarios, almost a resignation of accepting downward pressure on wages. It’s a working class mindset.

Mate you’re cooked.

It’s taken Boeing over 10 years just to add new engines and a new wing to the 777 and it’s not even certified yet!
New aircraft development is at best 15 years from launch to EIS. Add a massive technological advance like you are talking about and you can double that development time.
The current air traffic control system would need to be completely overhauled and modernised requiring cooperation with every signgle country on earth. Will not happen in our lifetimes.
I think there is higher probably of a world war taking us back to the dark ages before that happens…

43inches usually dribbles alot of cooked garbage...

He should go to a Rio Tinto minesite, where they have litterally spent 100s of millions on Automation and bare witness to the constant communication issues and drop outs they have between the Perth control centres and site! Here he is thinking driverless cars exist, if you call Teslas rubbish autonomous driving system automated driving well you are delusional. Along with all the drop outs, the trucks have the most advanced obstacle detection system in the world, yet they have trucks stopping for spinifex tumble weeds blowing past and then cant recognise cows on the haul road and run them over at 60kph. Yea good luck with the automated passenger jets, give it a few smoking craters and noone will be getting on board. Seen enough haul trucks, drill rigs and trains do the most random cooked crap all thanks to some minor interference or anomoly. When I worked there control would always call us to go and shutdown and reset a truck or drill rig that they have lost comms with or have no control over. Good luck doing that with a pilotless airliner. Enough with the dribble and delusions!

That may have something to do with the fact that you don't even need a Year 12 education to be an airline pilot in this country.

Haha, tesla not automated, good one, knowing a number of pilots that now own Teslas I think you may be a bit behind on the times. Only thing the driver has to do is touch the steering wheel periodically to tell it someones watching.

But seriously the new western Sydney train route is fully automated, many mine sites are automated, automated buses are in trial in Europe.

Since 2016 an automated copilot ai has been developed first trials coming in the next few years and rumored to be coming up as an option on some new turboprops and smaller jets in a few years time.

BTW cockpits can be altered by supplemental TC so dont have to go through the whole certification that occurs with a wing or other structural change. Pretty sure they could retrofit the tech into a 1980s turboprop if it was cost effective.

I agree, 43, you've got your hand on it mate.

So we are just going to ignore that Airbus is working on certifying the A350 single pilot in the cruise for Cathay by 2025, reducing the need for reserve crew on longer flights.

Looks like Qantas is getting some well paid baggage handlers. From the BBC:

"Australian airline Qantas has asked senior executives to work as baggage handlers for three months as it tries to tackle an acute labour shortage."

BBC News

What could possibly go wrong?

LOL...
I wish I ran a stock brokerage firm, You would buy all my tech stocks at the peak of the bull market 😂😂😂 Silicon Valley loves pseudo tech suckers like you. Working with automation the last few years, its good to know what works and what goes wrong all the time. All these technologies exist, but are you a gullible uni grad that thinks the future is today? Oversight is a wonderful thing along with ignorance, I am only 30 and the oversight coming from tech pseudos on a daily basis is amazing. Enjoy your AI flown jet 😂, you know the people who design these things dont even know how to use a screw driver...

It is actually called project connect, seriously it was last years news. I supposed thats how far behind the real world Australians are. Guess what happens when one airline does it without crashing....and a hint it does not involve bringing back flight engineers. Cathay will be the launch guineapig, if it works and is accepted the suite is designed to retrofit to existing airbus a350 at first. Airbus has already highlighted that the mature package will aim for complete single pilot ops in the long run. Airbus has also been running surveys on the general public as to their acceptance of single pilot airliners, its currently sitting around 50/50. Why spend on surveys if you were not working on it (the cat being already out of the bag with Cathay).

Ahh I’ve worked it out…….I bet 43 never made I through flight school and now has a chip on his shoulder……
Am I right am I right??

So you are saying that if project connect works and there are no problems they wont expand on it. Be serious here, Airbus is working on it and the airlines want it. Project Connect is single piloting, just because its only in the cruise does not make it any less, this could be hours at a time, not just toilet breaks.

And in no way am I saying this to reduce T&C, unions should be working out how to fight poor systems and also how pay should be increased for the loss of a crew member. After all you effectively are solely responsible on a single pilot cockpit for what happens so pay should increase.

Well goodluck getting it past the regulators. And it may lead to single pilot jets within a decade. But you seem so convinced on automation, as I said go and get a job at a minesite and then you tell me what $2 to $3 billion in R&D gets you. Rio spent over $1B just for its autohaul fleet. BHP wont even entertain the idea so they went and hired and trained 220 new loco drivers. Now your telling me Cathay is going to oneday spend more than that for autonomous jetliners... mate Cathay wont even exist in the next decade at this rate. And yea Cathay does need to look into single pilot ops as they dont even have enough pilots now! Maybe they could hire a fool like you! You certainly fit the right calibre of individual they will be looking for, but who will make the captains bunk when your replaced by project connect 😂.
its not happening period! This country takes 20years to chat about a train line then another decade to build it. We will not be getting the infrastructure to support it and I cant even see AJ spending billions to save 7 to 12% of costs!

No need, Im in the last 10 years of my aviation carreer and will be joining my seafaring mate in the south of France and Med aboard a big, probably automated private yatch. You guys can slug out the next 50 years vs HAL, I'll be down the back enjoying a good sleep.

Are Cathay still making SOs do that? Far out there is no way in hell I'd be doing that. Totally demeaning to the profession :ugh:

Even if technology can be developed for single pilot ops, how would it prevent hull losses such as MU5375, 4U9525, MI185, MS990 and possibly MH370?

Who is Cathay?

By reducing the chance of a suicidal pilot being alone at the controls by 50%, straight off the bat??

Very true and sooner than most people realize. Fiat money ALWAYS returns to zero.

Im always interested to read this opinion, it pops up occasionally when discussing airline costs.

Do some simple maths. Multiply the average pilot wage by the number of pilots on the books and then project that out per annum for the life span of a pilotless aircraft.

Now name any airline that wouldn't rather see that money in the coffers instead of spent on labor that can be replaced even when controlled for the related infrastructure costs to support ground based control systems.

You could do the same by carving out 20% of middle management

Cathay has never made SOs do "that" (ie make the captain's bunk). For starters, there is no "Captain's" bunk; there are two bunks, shared by four pilots (at different times :eek:). In days gone by when Cathay normally operated ULH flights with a Captain, two FOs and one SO, the SO was often a loose wheel during the pre-flight preparation. At the time they weren't allowed to do the walk-around, so they would normally check the safety equipment in the flight crew rest area and while they were there they would make up the two bunks. In most cases the Relief FO and SO would take the first rest, so the SO was in fact making their own bed. As for being "totally demeaning to the profession", there are plenty of occasions where I, as a Senior Captain, would put the SO in the seat during the preflight and go back and do the bunks myself. Funnily enough, I didn't find it the least bit "demeaning". It's all part of the teamwork that goes with ULH flying and it makes life easier for everyone. :ok:

Back to the topic...