Short pilots
 

I saw a job advert for an airline in Vietnam offering a rather generous pay and conditions package and it got me thinking. With the vaccine proving to be effective in almost stopping the death toll from COVID, airlines reintroducing stored aircraft to their fleets, large numbers of pilots choosing other careers and probably staying put, economies showing signs of rapid recovery, etc.

Is it time to discuss the pilot shortage? While airlines will never concede that there is a shortage, the truth is, it is very likely in the coming 12-24 months. We as a group of professionals need to remind ourselves that we bring immense value to our respective airlines and we shouldn’t sell ourselves short.

I thought you were talking about Oompa Loompa sized pilots.

I agree with the not selling sort sentiment, however if your airline is not flying your type you bring nothing at all to them

Not to mention all the cashed up expats looking to get home and who can afford to undercut the pilot market. There won't be a pilot shortage in Australia for a while yet. And that could be permanent if the market doesn't recover fully.

Virgin has a large redundancy list that back up to 2028. Not going to see many new faces.

Might see some jobs on the cargo front pop up however I don’t see much happening at the big boys.

The issues will appear next decade once we cycle out this generation and everyone especially the long haul players start offering big dollars to fly these big new twins. Those sitting on the redundant front who will probably need to sit out this decade might have issues getting rehired as they start to enter the late 50s and 60s.

A good time to become CPL job ready would be mid this decade. You will be Airbus or Boeing ready early/mid next decade and that’s going to be a great time to jump in.

If your talking about planes getting parked due to no crews. Well that day will come however we are still 15-20 odd years away before that starts to get ugly for some operators.

In reality no one, anywhere in aviation thinks in those time frames. Executives are only worried about the here and now, future pilots need a return on the $100K+ it cost them to get their license which isn't going to happen this decade.
The other issue is the whole structure and dynamic of aviation probably needs a reset in this country. Honestly who would risk the amount of money needed to be a pilot for the deteriorating lifestyle, remuneration, and career uncertainty? With the push toward outsourced airlines who will want to take the risk to just have your whole life upended mid career as they expect you to move across the country (again!) because the outsourcing company has changed?

Post the link to that job or agency, from what I’ve heard airlines are doing the exact opposite, peanuts!

Just use a cushion to see over the dash

Clicked onto this thread half expecting to see a photo of myself given the title!

Things will go nuts and airlines will be screaming for crew yesterday by the end of the year.

Pent up travel demand is there, everyone will be saving their leave and hanging for that holiday, wedding, business trip or family reunion.

Don’t lose sight of the big picture. People make their money at the bottom, not the top.

We will just be starting lockdown #6 by the end of the year. Nothing is getting back to anything near normal for quite awhile yet.

If the bitter truth be known, most of the general public consider pilots as pompous pratts.

Just like this chap - Lord Flasheart.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ee9eff953.jpeg
I think I misread the title too

There is (was?) an NZ 777 Captain who definitely proved height is nothing to worry about.

Thought you were a six footer Keg!:confused:

We might be in our quaint little backwater, but the rest of the world is getting on with life and getting busier - from a combo of the vaccine and pandemic fatigue.

There are green shoots in hiring in some airlines overseas. When these grow inside six months there will be a mad mad scramble trying to get those pilots that want to go back (and many don't) into the air again.

That's right Compressor Stall.
EK are screaming for pilots and very short already, with 777 crew >90 hours/month and not enough A380 crew for the runs those airframes currently service... pity they laid off so many. Meanwhile, resignations per month are still in the dozens and their recruiting department was also laid off during Covid so can't respond immediately.
Asian airlines are booming domestically especially Vietnam which also has recruitment underway in a few airlines... Tiawan too. Korean has already called back some foreigners and "the big 3" in China look to be doing the same before July, not including the many who remained there of course.
All the global freight giants (UPS/FEDEX/ATLAS etc) are recruiting which is great if you have USA access, while a few new start-ups in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe are racing to fill the void of a global population that refuses to be restrained.
You'd be well advised to keep your eye on foreign news portals, as virtually none of this "good news" is shown in Australia's LameStream Media!
Happy Landings

Most International Airlines are not expecting to be back to 2019 levels for years. As one poster said VA alone has a backlog for years before it needs to recruit and if EK is short it is because they shot too many during their reductions. I know at least 10 drivers who would head back there tomorrow after being let go in 2020.
You will need to wait some time for a Pilot shortage and if you are talking on a Global level it is a long long time away if ever.

I was vaccinated today and...
 

The doctor who gave me the jab today said “nobody knows what’s going to happen next with this virus, but one thing is for sure, it’s here to stay”.
We had a long chat about it and he continued to explain that we are learning more about the virus everyday. This means over time we will develop better vaccines and better systems to deal with the virus in everyday life as we have done with the flu.
It probably also means an annual “covid shot”, just as we do with the flu-shot.
Being optimistic, over time most people will get vaccinated and slowly return to their normal lives with a greater confidence to get on planes, ships etc, so chin up to all and get your jab ASAP.

I’m hoping I haven’t drifted this thread too far, however I thought it was relevant to the last few posts.

The queue to join an Airline in NZ/Aus is long and experienced at the moment, with a lot of Redundant/Stood down Pilots waiting to get their Job backs. Air NZ for example, have agreed that once all Link Pilots are recalled, any additional Link Recruitment will first be offered to Redundant Jet Pilots. I don't think we'll see a shortage for a few years to come. Even if flying return to 2019 levels, Airlines will be much leaner trying to recoup their COVID losses.

Other Regions, such as the ME, who took a heavy handed approach to Redundancies and aren't exactly known for their employee relations will likely be in need of experienced operators on the COVID rebound. I know a few who were laid off from the ME3, after the initial shock wore off and they found their feet, very few have any intention of returning... described it as a blessing in disguise.

In the longer term however, I'd say yes, there absolutely will a shortage. How many High School grads just went through Lockdowns while seeing the tourism industry decimated with thousands of redundancies and thought "I'm going burden myself with $100k debt to become a Pilot so I can drive a Bus when the next virus hits!"

And lets be honest... there will be another "Virus" for most of us.