How LOONG Is 'YOUR' Piece Of String..??
 

This received today.... IATA "Prediction".......

Its self explanatory, but I cannot vouch for its accuracy / integrity.....https://worldofaviation.com/2020/07/...paign=31072020

Cheeerrrsss...

How long - about this long at the moment - The suits view of aviation - ditto OZ
 

No cheer here boys and girls - just smaller and more anxious.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/10/no...es-and-boeing/

Note the indicators and its portents - people are driving not flying, long haul and international is in the bin and business will slash the travel - go and use MS TEAMS or Zoom instead. Government will bail out the icons and everyone will be on debt peonage and life support thereafter. Aviation always depended on people needing to go places or get boxes there , either fast or because there were no other option. The mass consumer travel boom that began with the wide bodied jets is over! Why - the consumer is broke just like most of the drivers and black hands and the cabin sales folk. The market for aviation services is going to look a lot like it did in t he 50's - for the rich and those whose employers pay the tare! How many aircraft did QF have then, TAA and ANSETT? Thats about it.

Surviving this for the youngsters, the millenials or whatever is going to come down to luck and that is hardly a plan luck or hope either of. Sorry, way it is way it was always in this game - better get used to it those of us who rode the roller coaster from then to now learnt the hard way and have had to rebuild our existence (move) and income (less) numerous times - no such thing as a sure thing!

Oh yeah and I got busted out as well except well this is the very last time now, run out of time and interest and money to be going around the same circle.

So why has domestic aviation in countries who have opened up post covid now back to almost pre covid levels? Where is the big drop off in China?

In response to business travel dropping off due Zoom etc, here are a couple of quotes from a very recent interview with Air NZ's Chief customer and commercial officer.

......domestic services make up about a third of its operation and its recovery has exceeded expectations. It is closing in on 80 per cent capacity compared to the same time last year, all the more remarkable as the now-absent international tourists usually fill about 20 per cent of domestic seats. "That's been a pleasant surprise for us." Even more encouraging is the recovery of the higher yielding corporate market - now back at around 65 per cent - in spite of the widespread adoption of video conferencing this year." While we still have the Zoom effect, it's starting to be more of a complementary product than actually a strong direct competitor so we're getting increasingly confident about the resilience of our domestic market."

Link to the article https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12354376

Well Nev - that may be for some, short term rebound (deferred demand). China's China worlds biggest market but that will not include employment for 'big noses' they are doin it for themselves and bring back in house at home pilot training that was a good earner for OZ, like everything they did was for us but better we crap them off (Old Singaporean PM would be saying told you so - racist whiteys). . Every body has a short attention span particularly the media. So lets see, as Kev2002 kindly pointed out, in Kiwi Land there is some domestic recovery - still down by about 20-30%, business travellers down by nearly 35%, international travellers down by 100%. Back of the envelope alone tells me that the front of the tube is about one third full and the back of the tube is about half full (probably break even at best). Better than nothing I grant you. Like all corporate folk the Air NZ guff is spin for the share market not the punter (reassuring words that the Alphabet or others are going to eat their dinners too like they have the media folks). The punters there like here have found their existence very precarious indeed and there are a lot more buisness failures to come. Latest Aussie ATO payroll data (July) gives the picture, lot of folk now casual and part time, lot of folk becoming Centrelink customers others on hold due to the Keeper and the older ones going nowhere but early retirement. That all spells significantly reduced discretionary income and spending capacity Second point - oil prices are well truly stuffed (have been for some time and that is going to really start huring a lot of places that depend on that income and were more than happy to have the best tubes) that tells you how much of what is happening all over. As the Big Red Rat is busy handing the keys of the wide bodies to the long term parking lot attendants and are still burning cash at a frightening rate (their capital raising failed to do the trick), hospitality and tourism is in the ditch all over OZ so the issue is not it all going tits up but rather it is a gigantic mountain to climb back up, one step at a time, worlds changed, so has that mouintain, years if ever to rebound to 2019 levels.

Folk have just got to get realistic about reality, theirs and plan accordingly! This is crap weather ahead and going to be for some time! Captain you must listen!

I was starting to wonder what this thread was about?

Maaate, just click on the link in #1, and if 2024 is troo......then......that's a loooong 'piece of string' = lots of joined 'threads'.........IF it turns out to be correct.....

No Cheers 'ere....

Well one thing is for sure and that is no living person on the planet has experienced the trough of a recession of the magnitude that follows. The deepest point usually occurs about 18 months later so that's late 2022 before any sign of recovery is apparent with unemployment expected to be around 15% to 22% assuming that the virus is no longer an issue.