Initial forecast for all crew stood up was Sep 2020, then Dec 2020, then Feb 2021 now April/ May 2021. There's a pattern developing here and with ongoing quarantine failures, border closures and now the destruction of traveller confidence from repeated, no-notice border closures, I don't see it changing anytime soon.

Yeah , but show me where he’s wrong .

My money is on some limited international travel around July when most Aussies will have had the vaccine. Allowing vaccinated travellers with negative COVID test results in and out of Australia will probably be an acceptable risk if data gathered over the next few months provides good news. It won't be back to normal, a handful of detinations with smaller aircraft at best but hopefully there will be a start.

Australia can afford to wait and see as it is less dependant on international travellers than countries such as Thailand. It can sit in isolation at the end of the world as it has done for thousands of years and watch while other countries take the first steps.

Tourism is (was) Australia's fourth largest export accounting for just over 8% of all export earnings before everything went south. It even overtook coal for a while there. This may become apparent at the end of March. The theory that we can 'afford to wait' is undone every time we shut down a whole state for a single case. People who haven't had their lives inconvenienced by more than a mask and working from home, which is most, would probably agree with you though. I guess that's the PR problem the rest of us have.

Tourism in 2019 made up 3.1% of Australia’s GDP and there were 9.4 million international visitors, Bangkok had nearly 23 million. To some extent, international arrivals have been replaced by domestic tourists unable to travel overseas however they don’t spend as much money or stay as long. With Australia being a long way from anywhere and relatively expensive to get to, those who visit tend to be higher yielding tourists.

Undoubtedly, COVID is many times worse than the pilots strike of 1989, however Australia is a relatively wealthy country with a high degree of self sufficiency and is better placed to isolate itself. Places such as Phuket and Bali are totally dependent on international visitors and the effects have been devastating. Businesses and hotels have been closing down en mass and the streets are like a ghost town. There are few replacement jobs available for those affected, and they were living close to the breadline anyway. Thailand and Indonesia can’t afford a comprehensive welfare system and the situation is dire.

Australia will probably be one of the last places to open up.

Krismiller,
Alice Springs, Cairns and the Gold Coast are almost completely dependant on tourism. When there is no tourism there is no economy. Wealthy country or not its not like Sydney where you can probably find alternative employment.

Getting unemployment may keep you from starving but it won't help a business stay afloat. There seems to be a belief that when the tourists return everything will go back to normal. Many hotels will not reopen and nor will many small businesses. At least 6 local businesses near me in suburban Melbourne remained closed after lockdown and we have never had to rely tourism at all. How will a tourist dependant business cope?

The USA and Europe will be fully vaccinated by mid year and International travel between them (and many popular tourist destination in Asia) should be near 50% of pre covid numbers.

Im not saying Australia should throw its doors open right now but you must start vaccinating soon to have any hope of being ready for the recovery. I fear the hide away mentality will cost Australia dearly in the long term when people decide to travel to other places instead.

Climb150......I don’t know how you get the view that the USA and Europe will be fully vaccinated ​​​​​​ by mid year???

When I say fully vaccinated I mean everyone who wants one gets one. The Australian govt thinks that vaccinating half the population is sufficient so maybe only half is full? When I said Europe I meant Western Europe. Usa vaccinated 23 million people in the last 4 weeks and the rate of vaccinations is increasing rapidly. The UK has vaccinated 10 million people in 8 weeks, France and Germany about 2 million a piece.

Australian, with a population of 25 million has had 900 COVID deaths.
UK, with a population of 66 million has had 111 000.
USA, with a population of 328 million has had 462 000.

Australia locked down early and tightly, where as the USA/UK had partial lockdowns and some restrictions which were enforced to varying degrees. The results speak for themselves. The UK is back on lockdown for the third time and vaccination is a race against time to reduce the spiraling death toll. Australian has had hotspots and flare ups but life goes on.

One of the best examples of coping with a pandemic is Singapore which has a population of 6 million yet only suffered 29 deaths. The city state locked down hard and regulations were enforced with a draconian efficiency which would have put the Gestapo to shame. However this strategy worked, though it might not be acceptable in a liberal western democracy with a strong emphasis on individual rights.

Hopefully borders can start to open around mid year when sufficient numbers of people have been vaccinated and the pandemic downgrades to an epidemic.

The Economist Intelligence Unit has made predictions regarding vaccination levels.

https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countr...irus-vaccines/

Having people in wealthy countries vaccinated is what will have most effect on the recovery. To put it bluntly, having Europeans, Japanese and Americans able to travel will speed up the opening of borders. Vaccinating people in developing countries who don’t travel anyway will have least effect.

Looking at the map in the link, important markets for Australia could be available towards the end of this year with an increasing number next year.

I think this pandemic will be around for a few more years before it is downgraded to an epidemic......the whole world is involved and to think that this will happen by mid year....is a bit of wishful thinking!!

According to Bloomberg, it will take a further 7 years for the world to return to the same freedoms we had pre-covid given the current expected rates of vaccination. Obviously elements of travel and tourism will return in the shorter term but being realistic it will be years for all past Qantas markets to be available. Greg Foran started yesterday it will take a MINIMUM of 10 years from now for Air NZ to reach its pre-covid size.

Most of QF's international destinations are are in countries which are expected to have widespread vaccine coverage by mid next year and Australia will be seen as a safe destination. Having large parts of Africa, South America and Central Asia unvaccinated won't make much difference. Europe - USA travel could resume later this year with Australia added soon afterwards. Direct flights from the east coast to the US are possible and SIN/HKG will be safe stops en route to Europe.

Travel bubbles proved too fragile but vaccine bubbles might be possible.

So exactly which unproven, untested, protocol minimised vaccine are we talking about that's going to sort out the virus in one mighty stroke?
From which previously and not so long ago pox riden countries, using the above various and different vaccines, will Australia accept travellers from?

What will be the requirements on arrival - a test/no test, quarantining short term or long term, you have a certificate (real or forged, can you tell the difference?) so just walk out of the terminal and be a tourist?

What happens when a new variant pops up that those already allowed into the country may have?
Sorry, questioned already answered - the magic, untested, infallible vaccines will take care of that....until they don't.
However you view it, whether luck or better judgement Oz overall has come through better than many other countries/continents and that's just going to be compromised and thrown away because of these "magical vaccines".

My bewilderment level at those who believe (wish?) for any significant International opening by the end of the year varies between wishful thinking to delusional.
F**k I hope I'm wrong!

That article in particular I believe is talking about if current rates were to be maintained, not Expected rates. Current rates won't be maintained, as bureaucracy, manufacturing and distribution issues are sorted through the pace will no doubt pick up, most particularly in Western Countries.
From the article: "With vaccinations happening more rapidly in richer Western countries than the rest of the globe, it will take the world as a whole seven years at the current pace..."

It'll be a little while before we are back to normal but the catastrophism is unnecessary (though not unexpected from the press these days), and unhelpful to those who might be having a hard time of things. In a separate article Bloomberg is talking of a return to international travel in 2023, so really, they have no idea and are trying to sell newspapers.

Things won't be back to the pre-pandemic normal quickly, but provided the emerging evidence from the Israeli vaccine experience is replicated across the rest of the world, the probability should be they will start improving soon.

The vaccines aren’t untested, they’ve gone through the same strict phase trials as any other vaccine with the usual gaps due to the need to beg for funding for each trial overcome by the massive amount of funding injected into the development process.

There’s clear real world data now proving the vaccine is effective and dramatically reducing the effects of the virus.

The CMO last week hinted at a return to international travel in the second half of this year. Whilst the company’s July 1 prediction may be a bit premature, it may not be far from the truth.

QF are in a much better position than EK. A substantial part of EKs route network is badly affected by COVID, will be delayed in getting the vaccine and DXB isn’t a virus free transit stop. Also, their aircraft are too big for the numbers of pax that will be traveling initially.

If the vaccine proves effective, direct USA flights could resume and Singapore is a safe en route stop for London. Japan and South Korea could be available around the end of the year. China might be possible with restrictions. The B787 and A330 are well suited to the lower numbers travelling.

Australia has coped well with COVID and with much of the world likely to remain isolated, it could be an attractive destination for vaccinated travellers from wealthy countries.

The next few months are important in determining how effective the vaccines are and what they actually do. The holy grail is one that prevents infection and transmission. We will find out how long they are effective for and if they protect against the new variants.

I’m now vaccinated and expect this to be an annual event for the foreseeable future. Next years dose will almost certainly be improved as new data becomes available.

COVID isn’t going away anytime soon, but it can be brought down to a manageable level like AIDS has been.

Before Sunfish too. He won’t be happy.

Good luck !

Article about yesterday’s events:

The stress of the long-running COVID-19 crisis has taken its toll on the Qantas pilots’ union, with the entire executive resigning en masse after learning of moves to replace them.

It’s understood the Australian and International Pilots Association executive was targeted by their own committee of management, after growing discontent among members.

The problems stemmed from dissatisfaction with the executive’s handling of the long haul enterprise agreement and uncertainty over hundreds of pilots’ jobs in the pandemic.

A380 captain Murray Butt was installed as the new AIPA president, just over two years after he was replaced in the top job by 737 pilot Mark Sedgwick.
Captain Butt said there was much concern about the previous executive’s handling of the long haul pay deal, that saw Qantas go over AIPA’s head to put an offer directly to pilots last year.

“(Pilots) had to make a decision based on the offer of backpay which for a lot of them was a big consideration given the stand downs that were occurring at that time,” Capt Butt said.

“As a result the enterprise agreement was endorsed quite strongly. We will never know if that was out of satisfaction with the deal.”

He admitted the stress of the current pandemic was taking its toll on many pilots, with A380 pilots in particular unsure of when they would work again.
Although Qantas Group chief executive Alan Joyce has insisted the superjumbos will return to service, that was unlikely to occur until demand returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, which could be many years away.

It was perhaps not surprising then that the majority of the new AIPA executive, were A380 pilots, including Captain Butt who has gone to work driving buses since COVID-19 struck.

“There is a greater presence of A380 pilots,” Captain Butt conceded.

“They have a greater motivation than anybody to ensure the best outcomes of any talks we have with Qantas going forward.”

As a first step, Captain Butt said AIPA wanted to bring a number of issues to a head with Qantas so pilots could make a decision on their futures.

“As a first step, we want to get a better understanding of where Qantas would like this to go, the different plans they’re examining at the moment so that we can come up with something that’s of benefit to the pilots and the airlines,” he said.

“They obviously have greater information of their capital needs, the aircraft requirements, the forward bookings – information that’s not readily available to pilots.”

The “changing of the guard” within AIPA was still being digested by many Qantas pilots on Tuesday with one expressing his disappointment at the upheaval.

Another pilot, who did not want to be named, said members of the new executive had deliberately set out to destabilise Mr Sedgwick and his team, with a sometimes “vile” campaign.

“Many of them were advocating postponing the long haul enterprise agreement vote in March last year,” said the pilot.

“What a complete debacle that would have been now to still have that EA open.”

As well as Captain Butt, the new line-up included two former executives involved in the industrial campaign that led to Qantas being grounded in 2011.

Former president Barry Jackson and former vice-president David Backhouse gained a reputation for their hardball style but the pilot questioned if that was suited to 2021.

“Hopefully they’ve learned something from that experience,” said the pilot.