Certainly not the way I remember anything on the webinars that I’ve listened to.

The way I’ve heard it discussed is that VR is designed to deal with the longer term surplus (beyond about 2023) and the LWOP was designed to deal with the short term surplus.

Of course, in the short term we still have a surplus crew and likely will continue to do so until all current A330/787 crew are stood up and a decision has been made about the A380. That should start to decrease from early to mid next year as vaccines and travel bubbles start to come online.

With the numbers who were let go it does indicate they have removed the crew required for all the 747s, about a third of the 380s and at least some of the 330s.

They may be planning on different flying for the fleets, I wonder if they see the 380 being limited to shorter Asian routes of less than 10hours (Japan, China, Singapore) instead of London/LAX if it does comeback which would negate the need for a lot of the SOs on the 380?

A likelihood is that those who took LWOP would just extend it, as they would only be coming back to being stood down anyway.

QF postponed the A350 order indefinitely back in May.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhor...o-coronavirus/

Whilst the A350 may be the preferred type, B777s will be readily available for lease, or purchase secondhand at whatever age and mileage the company wants. The endorsement is similar to the B787 and the type is widely used with a proven history.

If finances are tight, the B777 could replace the A380 fairly easily, possibly on a temporary basis until conditions improve enough to make the A350 a solid business case.

Saving money and restructuring are the main concerns over the next few years. Grandiose prestige projects with expensive new aircraft take a back seat for a while.

Qantas will never operate the 777. I don’t think they’d even be flown if they got offered them for free.

The VR/ER covers the long term surplus with the retirement of the 747.

LWOP covers the short term surplus.

The only way there will be more redundancies is if there’s an announcement of a reduction in frames.

I fully believe there will be a post Covid economic/travel boom and there will be a scramble to get bums on seats.

Why would you lease a 777 to replace an A380 if there are A350-900s also available for lease and the A350-1000 features in your longer term plans? Similar crewing advantages to the 777/ 787 with both A330 and A380 crew able to do a conversion with a minimum of fuss.

They also have cemented in place a business case for the A350.

Don’t forget the A330neo business case that was beginning to be made late last year!

The A350 business case was made at a time when it was flying and the 777X programme was stalled with engine problems and Boeing having to divert resources into getting the 737Max re certified.

The A350 was chosen at the time because there were airframes available within the chosen timeline and an aircraft already flying carries far less risk of delay than one still under development. The choice was made despite the 777X having superior performance and mission capability.

Fast forward a year from that decision, if QF execs still have an appetite for ultra long haul operations (which I believe will have a lot of demand in a post covid world) then the decision is very different. The 777X has flown, engine problems mostly sorted, delivery dates less likely to blow out and many customers looking to cancel orders hence early delivery slots may open up for QF.

There were two factors that helped swung the decision in favour of the A350.

1. There’s a greater distance between doors 1 & 2 on the A350-1000 which enables a better premium configuration for the ULR routes, &

2. The basic weight of the A350-1000 is 10 tonnes lighter thus saving fuel over the life of the aircraft. Being so much lighter, I don’t expect them to be strong enough to remain in service as long as the B777-8 would.

With the post COVID business being completely different, the business case for the aircraft would have to be rerun if they were looking for additional capacity.

The remaining B787 options are approximately half the cost of the A350 so they would have to be considered for non ULR routes.

All bets are off regarding the next few years, and any previous strategies need to be re-examined. On the vaccine front, the news is extremely encouraging and it’s not unrealistic to expect borders to start opening up in the next 3 - 6 months.

There will be an initial surge of bookings because of pent up demand, after that the entire network and timetable needs a clean sheet of paper. Some routes will be unprofitable and some new routes will be considered.

Frequencies, and type of aircraft will need adjusting, the ME3 have been savaged by the pandemic and may not be able to offer cheaper airfares. Australian travellers may prefer to fly on their own airline rather than a foreign one when going overseas

CX have deferred the B777-X until at least 2025 and are introducing the A321 - NEO with a scaled back business class.

For the next few years air travel is likely to be more point to point using smaller more efficient aircraft with reduced size premium cabins. Safe regional destinations will be more popular than adventurous long haul ones.

The kangaroo route bounces back as the UK has always been a popular destination, and QF could benefit if pax prefer a less exotic destination flying an airline they trust, particularly if the fare is competitive.

Australians have been forced to hide in our little corner of the world during COVID, due to some of the harshest border restrictions anywhere in the world. Suppression somehow became
elimination along the way, for better or worse.

I believe this will make us the most reluctant to travel until we can be absolutely certain about the effectiveness of a vaccine and given it time to prove itself on a world scale. We have become scared of the big bad world out there, and that will have a hangover effect even once the vaccine is available. We are probably more likely to get an increase in inbound pax before outbound, as vaccinated Poms and Yanks visit the safe haven of Australia.

I hope I’m wrong, but so many Aussies are petrified of this virus that almost exclusively kills elderly people and/or those with co-morbidities. I don’t see International travel rapidly bouncing back.

QLD perfect example of being petrified and falling for the Queen P propaganda machine. Even the busiest tourist spots in QLD voted for her. Either way QLD can look after QLD as said by Queen P regarding the hospitals, I hope Aussies avoid QLD and prop up TAS, SA, VIC watch all QLD squirm into bankruptcy screaming for any tourist dollar.

Let’s hope your wrong, I reckon as soon as Aussies can travel they will travel. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if Bali opened tomorrow flights would be full. Aussies maybe scared of the Billy Ray but it won’t stop travellers. It may stop the cruise ship market! Sure not all sectors will bounce back fast but I for one reckon the tourist sector will.

I'm sure those in the tourism industry who've been shafted by the pre-election policies of Queen P will be delighted to hear of your subsequent support. :ouch:
Unfortunately (if you see it that way) it was the residents in those electorates, especially the older ones, who voted the government back in, in response to the policy of keeping the baddies out. Most of those electorates were the closest contests and it wasn't those reliant on the tourism industry that saw the Premier returned.

Sorry, do the elderly and people with co-morbidities (things like high BP that would affect a large amount of the public) have less right to life than others? Or do we lock them all inside until everyone else is vaccinated?

I don't know how many times this has to be repeated but this is a serious pandemic. Look at nations that haven't taken it seriously. A big portion of Australian international airline flying is to the USA, where their approach has lead to tens of thousands of airline employees being laid off and regional airlines going out of business. The situation is so dire Covid positive nurses are forced to work and refrigerated morgue trucks are being used to store bodies. Europe, which is taking the pandemic more seriously, is still seeing near capacity ICUs and record case numbers. And all of this before Northern Hemisphere winter. The upcoming season is being nicknamed "Dark Winter" for a reason.

Asian nations have done better. But I would say their populations are better behaved, and more compliant with health advice than westerners. It is probably for the best to keep large numbers of potential virus carriers out until successful vaccines are available and travelers widely vaccinated unless we want a repeat of what's happening in the Northern Hemisphere at the moment.

I won’t support anything QLD don’t care what it is. QLD gave Queen P their blessing they can deal with that aftermath.

…..even those of us that didn't……:rolleyes:
Avagoodweegend Mr. Rangor.

Hey QLD are that stupid they don’t even realise NSW is benefiting by them closing the border. Byron bay is the place to go now for families to reunite.

Exactly Ragnor, and I’ve been hearing VIC and WA residents are planning big catch ups in ADL to circumvent the ridiculous border issues.

It begs belief doesn’t it?