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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

WingNut60 5th Feb 2021 01:17


Originally Posted by 601 (Post 10983789)
Maybe the Ďhighly transmissible' is not applicable in hot weather.

A very good point. I am sure that there are others left wondering right now how you can have a person infected with the B117 variant, living in close contact with three others and who went on what can only be described as a comprehensive jaunt around a good portion of the Perth metropolitan area over a period of several days and did not pass the contagion on to another single person.
As I said yesterday. This is perverse.

Icarus2001 5th Feb 2021 01:19

KRviator you are spot on with your analysis of experts in my opinion. Expert advice in context! That is how we ended up with compulsory bicycle helmets in Australia when the rest of the world mostly manages without such rules. Medical advice was they should be mandatory and no user group was powerful enough to lobby against the AMA advice.

The answer is simple. The numbers in Australia are low because of the restrictions being implemented around the country. The goal is to avoid the situations playing out in the USA and UK.
I understand that but come on, ONE CASE in Perth and nearly 200 contacts of his test negative and they still are locked down. Madness. McGowan is playing to the WA anti East coast sentiment and has his eye on a landslide at the election.

dr dre 5th Feb 2021 01:28


Originally Posted by Keg (Post 10983736)
And yet the QLD one yielded only one or two additional cases- all close contacts already in isolation with the patient zero- despite the original HQ worker travelling on public transport for a few days whilst infectious.

The report into that case hasn't been released yet, but the worker may have been aware of their position, they mask have worn a mask, socially distanced, limited their interactions with others. But what we do know is that strain B.1.1.7 is more transmissible if it spreads unchecked into the community. It's much easier to contact trace the close contacts of one case than three. I think the WA government also admitted lowers levels of social distancing in WA factored into their decision making, and not having a real world experience of contact tracing as well. Maybe it'll be different if it happens again?


So far the ‘highly transmissible’ case in Perth who travelled all over the city has yielded precisely zero additional cases.
Again, he may have been cognizant of his possible status and socially distanced. A majority of those infected are not "super spreaders". I do know that if there was a spread of this more transmissible variant in the community the same people who are criticising governments for being too strict would then be complaining that the government failed to pull out all stops to prevent it.


You’d like to think so because the current system of locking down cities for a week at a time for a single case isn’t going to cut the mustard going forward. Interesting to note too that from Friday Perth transitions to virtually their previous protocols. This means a crew arriving from NSW on Saturday is still required to isolate (for up to 14 days but probably only a week until the end of the 28 day cycle) because of the status that WA still has NSW in. This is despite the fact WA had a case roaming the community less than a fortnight ago. It’s complete BS.
Perth isn't "virtually going back to their previous protocols", masks will still be required for a week. And resident domestic aircrews are exempt from the 14 day isolation from NSW into WA. Yes it changes.

At times on this forum I've been accused of not being sympathetic to the plight of air crew who want regular air travel resumed ASAP. Nothing is further from the truth, I want that too. I'm just aware that the new variant getting into the community will probably cause more grief overall than limited restrictions being applied to keep community cases at zero.

If remote quarantine is too hard for some maybe purpose built facilities on the outskirts of cities? Looking at the aircon and airflow in these facilities? Looking at restricting workers to the facility whilst working there and then a quarantine period after with limited movement when they are off duty? Deliver food to their home so they don't have to visit every supermarket in the city? Provide them a self contained apartment so they can live alone? Just trying to think of some solutions to this current hotel quarantine mess.

Of course the ultimate solution is immunisation. I suspect the true reason the Feds aren't too keen on remote quarantine is they've seen the effects of immunisation programs in countries like Israel, which first started vaccinating just 6 weeks ago, and possibly have done the sums and figured out it's cheaper to just accept a few more CBD hotel breakouts before a critical level of vaccination is reached rather than construct purpose built facilities. Already there seems to be cautiously optimistic talk this week of an earlier than expected opening of international borders, it seems the large scale effects of vaccination are better than hoped.
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001 (Post 10983808)
Madness. McGowan is playing to the WA anti East coast sentiment and has his eye on a landslide at the election.

This is a bit of a side issue for me but I do find it a bit hypocritical that the side of politics which usually complains about governments pandering to minorities and minorities having too much say in the political process is now complaining that a government is acting on the wishes of the overwhelming majority. Not nice to be in a minority is it?

WingNut60 5th Feb 2021 01:31


Originally Posted by Icarus2001 (Post 10983808)
I understand that but come on, ONE CASE in Perth and nearly 200 contacts of his test negative and they still are locked down. .......

OK, so how many cases of the B117 variant do you think are necessary in the wild before you implement a lock-down?
Would your answer be "Never", by any chance?

If so, please refer Melbourne statistics June thru October.

jrfsp 5th Feb 2021 01:43

So far the topic of reopening the international border has not been brought up. Under what circumstance will this happen unrestricted?

Im thinking it could be well into next year

Global Aviator 5th Feb 2021 01:54

International borders??? Who has a crystal ball! :{

Icarus2001 5th Feb 2021 02:05


OK, so how many cases of the B117 variant do you think are necessary in the wild before you implement a lock-down?
Would your answer be "Never", by any chance?
Ten is a nice number.

If a couple of his contacts tested positive then there is a trend, which means more can be expected.
Also think about the travelers FROM WA who are in quarantine in other states based on ONE infection in Perth a week ago. Should they be allowed out of their 14 day quarantine given Perth comes out today at 6pm WST?

DHC8 Driver 5th Feb 2021 02:59

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-...binet/13122610


Multi-million dollar quarantine facility to be built near Toowoomba? Unrestricted opening of international borders is a dream.

Ragnor 5th Feb 2021 03:19

AstraZeneca vaccine is set to have full approval by next week was reported today. That could speed travel up. It was good to hear the PM speak about acceptable levels of the virus moving forward. Covid needs to be treated like any other disease once the vaccine rolls out.

Chronic Snoozer 5th Feb 2021 04:14


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10983810)
The report into that case hasn't been released yet, but the worker may have been aware of their position, they mask have worn a mask, socially distanced, limited their interactions with others. But what we do know is that strain B.1.1.7 is more transmissible if it spreads unchecked into the community. It's much easier to contact trace the close contacts of one case than three. I think the WA government also admitted lowers levels of social distancing in WA factored into their decision making, and not having a real world experience of contact tracing as well. Maybe it'll be different if it happens again?

It may be more transmissible but the measures to keep it at bay are largely the same. I argue that compliance with existing hygiene protocols is the issue. The premiers are not helping themselves by using hyperbole to justify their actions. The federal government finally mandated mask wearing in airports and on flights when this could have been done months ago without having to learn of a ‘new, highly transmissible strain’ of COVID. The introduction of mandatory negative COVID tests before travel to Australia could have been enacted prior to Jan 2021.

In light of this we learn that in the WA quarantine hotel, there were a mixture of quarantining travellers and other guests, and no mandatory mask-wearing for security guards. Don’t you think we deserve better risk management than that from Health Departments given what we already have learned from a number of serious outbreaks? If you put someone in a dead boring job for 12 hours straight, how long does it take for them to violate one of the protocols, even innocently, due to the lack of stimulus in that role? Perhaps if there was better supervision of existing protocol compliance the entire SW Australian seaboard would not have needed lockdown. The lockdown feels over-compensatory in light of latent basic errors in quarantine management.

As for WA allegedly not having real world experience in contact tracing, come again? They’ve had 10 months of no COVID in the community to prepare for this, learning all the while from other states’ the do’s and don’t’s of outbreak management so forgive me if I’m just a little incredulous at that reasoning. I’m not against lockdowns of varying degrees, if there is a logic to it and a little bit of explanation of the ‘medical advice’ where it differs significantly from other CMOs. It’s not too much to ask for is it?

Clearly, the most recent example would be Victoria and WA’s respective responses this week.

currawong 5th Feb 2021 05:08


Originally Posted by Icarus2001 (Post 10983823)
Ten is a nice number.

If a couple of his contacts tested positive then there is a trend, which means more can be expected.
Also think about the travelers FROM WA who are in quarantine in other states based on ONE infection in Perth a week ago. Should they be allowed out of their 14 day quarantine given Perth comes out today at 6pm WST?

No, because we found the trend or threshold approach to be a disaster.

Remember this? From June 2020....

"However, while the numbers for Victoria are increasing, they're not necessarily cause for alarm."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-...cases/12366884

From two cases to second wave in no time at all.

dr dre 5th Feb 2021 05:16


Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer (Post 10983859)
I’m not against lockdowns of varying degrees, if there is a logic to it and a little bit of explanation of the ‘medical advice’ where it differs significantly from other CMOs. It’s not too much to ask for is it?

Morrison addressed that himself in this ABC live blog of his press conference today (about half way down):

Morrison says the difference between cities like Brisbane and Perth versus Melbourne and New South Wales dealing with cases is that "we are very confident about how Victorians and New South Wales residents would respond".

"Both Western Australia and Queensland haven't had much game time for their systems, with their contact tracing and things like that, as other states have had.


Dannyboy39 5th Feb 2021 06:13

Iím sorry but as an outsider looking in, thatís one of the most bollocksworthy statements Iíve seen from a politician in this pandemic.

Icarus2001 5th Feb 2021 06:31

Chronic Snoozer, this is a great summary of how I feel...

Perhaps if there was better supervision of existing protocol compliance the entire SW Australian seaboard would not have needed lockdown. The lockdown feels over-compensatory in light of latent basic errors in quarantine management.

currawong 5th Feb 2021 06:40


Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 (Post 10983889)
Iím sorry but as an outsider looking in, thatís one of the most bollocksworthy statements Iíve seen from a politician in this pandemic.

You are in the UK, right?

dr dre 5th Feb 2021 07:01


Originally Posted by currawong (Post 10983899)
You are in the UK, right?

ďI was at a hospital the other night where I think there were a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody, you will be pleased to know, and I continue to shake handsĒ.......

Dannyboy39 5th Feb 2021 07:15


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10983907)
ďI was at a hospital the other night where I think there were a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody, you will be pleased to know, and I continue to shake handsĒ.......

Hey... I didn't say it was the only one! I didn't vote for that clown...

Foxxster 5th Feb 2021 07:19


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10983874)
Morrison addressed that himself in this ABC live blog of his press conference today (about half way down):

Morrison says the difference between cities like Brisbane and Perth versus Melbourne and New South Wales dealing with cases is that "we are very confident about how Victorians and New South Wales residents would respond".

"Both Western Australia and Queensland haven't had much game time for their systems, with their contact tracing and things like that, as other states have had.


You have to realise that there is also politics in Morrisonís statement. So do not read anything into that statement.

He knows full well there is a WA election coming up. And with the Liberals already way behind he is deliberately playing it nice with the WA premier so as not to put the state liberals in a more negative light as it appears WA voters are happy with the current handling of the pandemic. Rightly or wrongly.

I would expect the language to change a little after the election.

dr dre 5th Feb 2021 08:09


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 10983915)
You have to realise that there is also politics in Morrisonís statement. So do not read anything into that statement.

He knows full well there is a WA election coming up. And with the Liberals already way behind he is deliberately playing it nice with the WA premier so as not to put the state liberals in a more negative light as it appears WA voters are happy with the current handling of the pandemic. Rightly or wrongly.

I would expect the language to change a little after the election.

The State Libs have zero chance of winning that poll, it doesnít matter what comes out of Morrisonís mouth. Iíd say if anything heís thinking of his own next Federal Election and not losing WA seats.

After the state election itíll be April, the vaccine program will be well underway, a lot of critical groups should have been vaccinated, the risk profile will change and thereíll be a change in health advice and actions, so the language will change from all. No one can say for sure how much, I wouldnít expect full unrestricted international travel of course by that stage but steps will be made.

WingNut60 5th Feb 2021 08:22


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10983946)
The State Libs have zero chance of winning that poll, it doesnít matter what comes out of Morrisonís mouth. Iíd say if anything heís thinking of his own next Federal Election and not losing WA seats.

Mr Morrison won't be in any hurry to go to the polls, I suspect.

Icarus2001 5th Feb 2021 08:36

The pundits seem to disagree WingNut, he wants to bask in the sweet spot at the end of 2021 as restrictions start to lift and the future looks rosey.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...tion-this-year

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/poli...election-2021/

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-...ccine/13109674

Foxxster 5th Feb 2021 09:26


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10983946)
The State Libs have zero chance of winning that poll, it doesnít matter what comes out of Morrisonís mouth. Iíd say if anything heís thinking of his own next Federal Election and not losing WA seats.

After the state election itíll be April, the vaccine program will be well underway, a lot of critical groups should have been vaccinated, the risk profile will change and thereíll be a change in health advice and actions, so the language will change from all. No one can say for sure how much, I wouldnít expect full unrestricted international travel of course by that stage but steps will be made.

Also very true. The WA liberals may have no hope of winning but they want to lose by a lesser margin. Any negative outbursts from Canberra could mean losing additional seats.

The possibility of a Federal election around September this year is as you say also a major consideration....as I have heard if things go bad enough in WA alone, it could be enough to swing things . And it appears at the state level at least, the libs are in serious trouble there.

WingNut60 5th Feb 2021 09:31


Originally Posted by Icarus2001 (Post 10983970)
The pundits seem to disagree WingNut, he wants to bask in the sweet spot at the end of 2021 as restrictions start to lift and the future looks rosey.

Yes well, we'll see how that goes for him.
We'll see how popular he is after he brings in this year's budget.

Jobs and growth is starting to look a bit fragile

Ragnor 5th Feb 2021 10:09

You really can’t hold the federal government accountable for the budget deficit when they spent so much on the ppl. So Mo will be popular as he is now.

WingNut60 5th Feb 2021 10:46


Originally Posted by Ragnor (Post 10984055)
You really canít hold the federal government accountable for the budget deficit when they spent so much on the ppl. So Mo will be popular as he is now.

I didn't say I did. But I also would not over-estimate his popularity.
We'll see.

rcoight 5th Feb 2021 11:10


Originally Posted by WingNut60 (Post 10983955)
Mr Morrison won't be in any hurry to go to the polls, I suspect.

Heíll romp home, whether the election is later this year or next.

The ALP have no chance under Albo - or anyone else - while they continue to ignore their traditional base in favour of inner city greens.

Icarus2001 5th Feb 2021 12:49


Yes well, we'll see how that goes for him.
We'll see how popular he is after he brings in this year's budget.
I can see the man in the street...”Save us Albo you are only hope”

Yep, the man in the street knows that the best people to fix the economy and get us moving are a group of ex union officials parachuted into safe seats. Too funny.

601 5th Feb 2021 13:01


That is how we ended up with compulsory bicycle helmets in Australia when the rest of the world mostly manages without such rules.
At least in Oz, we have a vessel in which we can deliver the mangled brains to their mother.
This especially applies to the morons who ride with their helmet other than on their head, correctly fastened.

I have witnessed three bicycle accidents caused by uneven or protruding road surfaces which, judging by the damage to the helmets, would have resulted in serious brain injury.

.

SOPS 5th Feb 2021 13:09

The Labor Party is too focused on the latte sipper Greens in the city. Once upon a time.. they were the party for letís say.. the coal miners. All they want to do now is shut down coal mining.: well perhaps they do.. no they donít .. umm we canít really say.

Until Albo and his inner city mates go back to their base .. they have no hope in hell of winning an election.

Shorten got caught out by this at the last election.. telling the late sippers he was against coal .. and trying to explain to the miners, why he wasnít.

For many reasons, this is going to be a fun year.

Climb150 5th Feb 2021 13:49


Originally Posted by 601 (Post 10984192)
At least in Oz, we have a vessel in which we can deliver the mangled brains to their mother.
This especially applies to the morons who ride with their helmet other than on their head, correctly fastened.

I have witnessed three bicycle accidents caused by uneven or protruding road surfaces which, judging by the damage to the helmets, would have resulted in serious brain injury.

.

A 2006 BMJ study showed that in states which had helmet laws, the amount of cycling to work had reduced by about one third.[53] Other evidence strongly suggests that promotion or compulsion of helmet use deters cycling.

ďAustralia is one of only two countries in the world with fully enforced mandatory helmet law. The number of people who ride a bike isn't increasing and there has been no decrease in the number of bike rider fatalities.Oct 31, 2018

Good to see Australia is keeping us all safe from super dangerous bicycles

Foxxster 5th Feb 2021 20:11


Originally Posted by rcoight (Post 10984118)
Heíll romp home, whether the election is later this year or next.

The ALP have no chance under Albo - or anyone else - while they continue to ignore their traditional base in favour of inner city greens.

Albo is done. Plibersek has already announced she is after his job for anyone listening. She has raised her profile this year, taking a regular spot on a talkback radio station and if anyone thinks that little confrontation with Craig Kelly was anything but her saying she was leader in waiting then wake up. Apparently Tony Burke has also cleared up a few issues from his past, very quietly so expect something from him, perhaps deputy to Plibersek or to run as leader.

And before anyone says , no she will wait until after the election. Or wait, what about those new rules they brought in regarding electing a new leader. Plibersek is a leftie just like Albo and if or more likely when Albo loses, the federal ALP are sure not going to elect another leftie to lead them. So Plibersek has to make her move before the election. She also is too old to wait for the time after the next leader after Albo. And with an election tipped for September, she is going to have to act quickly. Hence the recent confrontation with Kelly. Expect to see and hear a lot more of her and probably Burke.

Ragnor 5th Feb 2021 20:22

Albo will loose the election, TP will wait till after that then take the reins. TP will build her profile even more over the next 3-4 yrs and loose that election. The Labor party is not the Labor party anymore they're more aligned with the greens than ever before and until they can distance themself they will loose the blue collar workers gradually.

The Nationals are requesting the Liberals that rural Australia Agriculture, coal, manufacturing be protected in any Australian policy transition to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and they will cross the floor to protect regional Australia and their party’s identity. Sco Mo does this he will smash the next election and the next.

wheels_down 5th Feb 2021 20:35

I think itís safe to say there wonít be any government changes throughout this entire decade. Federal and State. Scotty will be the longest serving PM. Dan will be the longest serving Premier.

Largely due to failures of the opposition in every market.

layman 5th Feb 2021 20:45

Climb150

97% of fatal bicycle accident victims were not wearing a helmet

74% of severe injuries (mainly head trauma) were not wearing a helmet

Mandatory or not, wearing a helmet seems to be the safer option

dr dre 5th Feb 2021 21:11


Originally Posted by Ragnor (Post 10984454)
The Nationals are requesting the Liberals that rural Australia Agriculture, coal, manufacturing be protected in any Australian policy transition to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and they will cross the floor to protect regional Australia and their partyís identity.

If you havenít noticed the rhetoric from the government has changed in the last 2 months, may have coincided with a change of government in Washington.......

Exact words from the PM - ďthe political debate about reaching a carbon-neutral future is overĒ....

Anyway enough thread drift, bad enough weíre arguing about politics and pandemics here, arguing about politics and CC is JB territory.....

Chronic Snoozer 5th Feb 2021 21:14


Originally Posted by Climb150 (Post 10984231)
A 2006 BMJ study showed that in states which had helmet laws, the amount of cycling to work had reduced by about one third.[53] Other evidence strongly suggests that promotion or compulsion of helmet use deters cycling.

ďAustralia is one of only two countries in the world with fully enforced mandatory helmet law. The number of people who ride a bike isn't increasing and there has been no decrease in the number of bike rider fatalities.Oct 31, 2018

Good to see Australia is keeping us all safe from super dangerous bicycles

Itís not the bicycles, itís gravity and Mother Earth that are dangerous. Dive back into that study and find out how many serious head injuries and concussions were prevented. Is it so different to mandating seat belts? Popularity of cycling is affected by a number of factors not least of which is proper infrastructure and urban sprawl.

WingNut60 5th Feb 2021 22:06


Originally Posted by rcoight (Post 10984118)
He’ll romp home, whether the election is later this year or next.

The ALP have no chance under Albo - or anyone else - while they continue to ignore their traditional base in favour of inner city greens.

You must be reading my post up-side down.
I said nothing about Lib vs Lab.
I agree, Albanese has no show.
But I'm not at all sure that it's going to be ScoMo up front when the next election comes around.
But hey, wouldn't this all be better in another thread.

krismiler 5th Feb 2021 22:55

Australian bicycle helmet laws vary from state to state, most will allow Sikhs an exemption, except for New South Wales where they feel that the protection offered by a turban isn't quite up to that of a proper helmet.

Motorcycle use requires a helmet in all states with no exceptions on religious or medical grounds, except for Tasmania where the transport department may approve a medical exemption.

Climb150 5th Feb 2021 23:56

Hmmmm 195 countries and 2 have mandatory helmet laws for adults. I guess the rest of the world is just too dumb to see how forward thinking we have been over the last 30 years.

dr dre 6th Feb 2021 01:00


Originally Posted by WingNut60 (Post 10984508)
But hey, wouldn't this all be better in another thread.

Absolutely, soon someone will suggest bike helmets can prevent virus infection.


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