ex ABC News: Chief Health Officer responds to toll of receiving death threats......
 

Extract:
Article link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-...utive/12650210

rgds
S28

I want to make it very clear, in fact clearer than clear! Now look, I couldn't make this any clearer than the last time of making it clear. The fact is the matter in my mind is clear.
What part of making it clear don't you get. For heavens sake for the final time let me make it clear we have said "I want to make it clear" more times this year than in the last
120 years of federation. Are we clear. Crystal.

written and spoken by, The lets make it clear party. The clear road to recovery.

Well, I think we are agreed, this is serious, of the most serious seriousness.

YEEEEEEEEEES minister.

Seriously Serious!
I don't think that is the right question and I want to make this quite clear, this is a very serious matter.

I loved that show.

Jenny Mikakos, Sutton, Dan Andrews verses Sir Humphrey, Bernard, Jim Hacker. I can't distinguish, the better show.

Jeanette Young is Qld’s Chief Health Officer and has been in the role for 15 years, a professor in the School of Public Health at UQ, a former Director of Medical Services at hospitals, an ER doctor and dealt with the Swine Flu and MERS epidemics in her time as CHO.

And do tell, what qualifications/experience do her critics have? And who has stoked a mindset where a doctor has received death threats (actual credible threats as she requires protection) for doing her job? I can think of some culprits in our media for starters....

Thanks for the resume, Dre...so she’s beyond critique, is she? Are you satisfied with her management of the border..which should never have been closed in the first place?

At a guess, they're people who don't have the Government-funded silver spoon in their mouth and actually have to work for a living... If the CHO's are really that concerned about the death toll, why do they still permit tobacco use - arguably the single most-easily controlled way to prevent lung and bronchial cancer, that killed 8,684 people in Australia last year......

As has been stated above, they're Doctors. They may be very good Doctors, but they are still just Doctors. They have been granted extraordinary powers, powers that have never-before been issued in Australia in this manner, which have no appeal process and no recourse or any other oversight. A fundamental concept in the legal system in Australia, and elsewhere, is the right to appeal. Under WA & Qld restrictions, there is nothing of the sort. No means no and if you're on the wrong side of that answer, you're screwed, without so much as a "Sorry Bucko!".

Tell a Doctor you can close the border to anywhere with a COVID case and of course they will jump at that opportunity. Tell an Economist to close the border to anywhere with a COVID case and they'd be aghast at the thought. The issue is finding the appropriate middle ground, something WA and Qld have yet to do, especially when Qld is taking less than 1/3rd of the International Arrivals of NSW...

So median age of person who died from (? with) COVID in Australia = 82 (very similar to USA white decedents)

USA has stratified median age of death by ethnic background
81 (IQR 71-88) for white decedents
72 (IQR 62-81) for non-white, non-Hispanic decedents
71 ( IQR 59-81) for Hispanic decedents

Australian median life expectancy = 83 years (so Australian's who die from COVID are very slightly older than Australian's who die from all other causes).
Average life expectancy of an 85 year old is 6 years - so you have a 75% chance of living another 3 years, a 50% chance of living another 6, and a 25% chance of living another 10.
Put another way, the for a person aged 85, the average annual risk of death is 10% (12% male and 9% female). Yes the dataset and hence numbers are slightly different, but you get the general idea.

For comparison, the average mortality for some aged 85 getting COVID is estimated to be about 10% (this figure is a bit rubbery). So about the same risk again as you already had by virtue of being 85. However the risk of dying from COVID is expressed over a couple of weeks, while the annual risk of dying is expressed over 52 weeks.

So getting COVID aged 85
Likely doubles your risk of dying in the next 12 months (from 10 to 20%)
With most of this increase expressed over the first few weeks

COVID is not a nothing. And I don't believe anyone has suggested otherwise.

But at 85, life (i.e. being 85) is risky. An elderly relative once told me "I don't buy green bananas."

And maybe we have got this out of proportion.

How many times to we have to say it, "ITS NOT ABOUT DYING" it's about infection and the chances of being returned to normal. The evidence thus far suggests you don't. 21 million from 8 billion is not enough to know for sure what that is along with the relatively short time frame to access long term impact of an infection.

If everyone recovered said, yeah fully restored no difference at all and there doesn't appear to be any longer term issues either, then yes, we the greater majority probably would be willing to take that risk and let it rip. Until we have those answers or a vaccine becomes available so we don't need to know those answers, we proceed with great caution. It would be foolish to do otherwise. I still wouldn't agree to it, if it meant sacrificing our medical staff as has been the case globally.

My suspicion is the long term health implications have been greatly overstated.

With high background rates of anxiety and saturation media coverage, lots of weird things will be put down to COVID.

There will also be enormous publication bias (professional and mainstream media). Someone saying they have persisting XYZ will get reported, no matter how implausible any link.

if you doubt the power of these phenomena, just think back to that curious 1980’s Australian epidemic of RSI.

If you truly believe that and your motivations are strictly unselfish, then you should volunteer to become infected, either as part of a scientific study or a part of the vaccine drug trial.
Why wouldn't you, this is an overstated nothingness right!.

I think I specifically said that it was not a nothing. Yep - 3rd last paragraph.

Working on the health frontline I am happy taking my chances.

And I’ll be happy enough to have the vaccine. The safety data will be rushed of course, with no long term data. But it will probably be ok. Besides it will be compulsory for health so won’t make any difference if I wasn’t happy.

So why are you posting statistical data, that may or may not be presented in context that support your suspicious view.

You guys are entitled to lobby for support, I get it, that's democracy. I don't believe for a minute you'll be successful, but on an outside chance you are and secure a greater majority, then we the minority will have to take it on the chin, walkaway and isolate ourselves. The problem with that in our state is that we can't cope with a VIC type crisis with all hands on deck as it is, a good number of those have already declared that should that happen we have no choice but to walk away and isolate. That situation extends to a good number of essential community services. It's likely to collapse the functional economy of the state, particularly around the capital city. A big call for a covid unaffected state.

The important things to us
We don't want to get infected
We want to live as normally as possible within our state to the crisis is passed
Most importantly we don't want to crash our economy or overwhelm essential services.
Two things that will change our position
A vaccine
A reliable quick test that can be used to better manage our border controls

The WA CHO has testified the health system there can cope with a COVID case load of 5,000 active cases, made up of 500 new cases a day, 650 in wards and 124 in ICU. Doesn't sound like "can't cope" to me...

With all hands on deck, we have declared that won't be happening.

So what exactly is the Victorian crisis.

105 hospital admissions? 3 wards. Across the whole state.

11 in ICU? Australia has 2000 ICU beds (public and private) and have surge capacity of another 2000. Of these 4000, figure 25% are in Victoria. So 11/1000 = 1% of resources.

Elderly deaths in residential aged care facilities? Yes that is sad.
About 200,000 Australians live in RACF. So maybe 50,000 in Victoria.
Another way to think of this number is 5-6% of Victorians older than 65.
Approx 20% of these people (so 10,000) die in a given year. That normally passes unnoticed. Infections, dementia, neglect, falls & trauma, cancer, suicide ... 10,000 per year.
Against that background, 500 RACF deaths is sad but perhaps not a crisis.

What about the other side of the ledger. What about the costs of lockdown
Increased mental health and self harm
Increased drug use.
Increased domestic violence
Increased child abuse
Kids disconnected from school
Economic costs
Businesses closed down
Families losing their homes

it’s not a simple exercise to balance these

But it is intellectually dishonest not to at least recognise the other side of the ledger.

The QLD (like all the others) border is not closed.

Restricted. Not closed.

Entry is conditional. Not closed.

Some people just don't get it.

This is where stats and expectations don't necessarily work, So what really happened and I get this from my own girls ok. VIC didn't get anywhere near what they planned to cope with before they were calling out for help. Not many put their hand up, but some went to help. It didn't work they discovered their systems and procedures are different, they were next to useless to them and managed to get themselves infected as well. It was an epic fail. Two that got infected were under 30 and are still not recovered back to normal. If anything it has strengthened their resolve to keep the borders closed.

Do not make the mistake of speaking for everyone within the state of WA.

Maintaining a border "closure" and stipulating that 6 other states must concurrently show no community transmission for 28 consecutive days before reopening doesn't sound like democracy. Prohibiting travel between two Australian cities which have no known cases without mandatory two weeks quarantine is not particularly democratic. It's risk avoidance not risk management. Like aviation, things would all be a lot safer if we just all stayed at home.

Maybe the next decision will be to vaccinate everyone (when its available) and let's just see if it actually works outside the state before we reopen. That should only take another 6 months or so.

Classic storeman's excuse, you can't have the last one someone might need it.

I'm sorry you're quite right, "what is important to the majority of us"

I remember seeing something about approval ratings but no substantial survey. Do you have the link?

Better still, do one yourself, any populated area, select 10 random people and ask the question. You should get around 8 in 10 say borders closed for now anyway.

I don't have a link, the polls get taken down

Victoria running out of healthcare staff - you can can 25 million beds, but they need to be staffed.

RACF - not sure your number/s are correct - but MOST aged care is NOT in aged care facilities.

MOST aged care is not government funded either.

Semantics.

The Western Australia border is closed to NSW and VIC residents if you are not:

• a senior Government official who is carrying out the official's duties, is responsible (alone or with others) for the safety of the Nation or a State or territory against threats such as terrorism, war, or espionage and is required to be present in Western Australia in connection with those duties;
• Active military personnel (including members of the Australian Defence Force Reserve on active duty) required to be on duty in Western Australia while in Western Australia; or
• A person who is carrying out functions under a law of the Commonwealth
• The Premier of Western Australia and any member or members of the Premier's staff
• A Commonwealth parliamentarian or
• Are specifically authorised by the Emergency Services Commissioner.

The other 14,500,000 citizens who are not one of those categories are forbidden from entering Western Australia.

You can call the border "restricted" all you want. The practical effect of the directions though, is to specifically exclude nearly 60% of Australian's citizens from entering WA, based on nothing more than the Citizens state of residence.

And to add to this, WA residents who are overseas practically cant get in either...

PM Morrison added that the reason the government was asking airlines to reduce seats was that the country can’t technically turn away citizens at the border. The move will come into effect from Monday and will be followed shortly after by plans to charge those returning for their hotel accommodation.

https://australianaviation.com.au/20...stralia-84831/

If you need to go for something important, apply for an exemption.

Then number 6 will apply.

Others have. :ok:

• certain senior Government Officials
• certain active military personnel
• a member of the Commonwealth Parliament and any members of their staff travelling with them
• a person carrying out functions under a law of the Commonwealth
• the Premier of WA and any members of the Premier's staff
• a person coming to WA at the request of the Chief Health Officer or the Director General of Health
• any person (other than an airline or maritime crew member) responsible for transport or freight and logistics services into or out of WA

Lots of people still trying to return home to Aus - am I the only one that wants to get out for a holiday (to NZ) but can’t!?

No. Definitely not the only one.

[/QUOTE] You should get around 8 in 10 say borders closed for now anyway.[/QUOTE]

You would probably get the same result if the question was about succession from the Federation.....and that result would be down to parochialism rather than common sense......No difference to Covid, at least IMHO.

Where has that been stated? The only thing from the WA government has been a revisiting of Stage 5 and border procedures in late October (conveniently before the November High Court case is heard btw). They have not said a thing about vaccines or rapid tests, so you’re making stuff up.

A reliable vaccine may be 2-3 years away from distribution. 91% may support it today, but for the next 2-3 years?

I think the key date for full reopening in WA will be March, state election + end of Jobkeeper.

Don’t think there isn’t talk in WA about the border control

Yup. It’s WA — you just need to mention it’s a threat from “The East” and 8 out of 10 will grab their pitchforks and head for the border. :hmm:

Mr Marshall has said they could open their borders as early as tomorrow, they are meeting with the transitional committee in the morning if they advise its good to go then by afternoon we could see free travel. Then QLD will look stupid when NSW,ACT,SA and NT from Oct 9th are freely travel.

Then that imbecile SM will have egg on his face.

For info in case anyone finds this useful... Latest arrival data.

All overseas arrivals to Australia in August 2020 (provisional estimates):
• 15,400 estimated trips, 8,800 of these are Australian citizens
• 9.1% of all arrivals were those arriving on temporary other visas.

The three largest visa groups arriving in Australia in August 2020 were:
• Temporary other visas (1,400)
• Permanent skilled visas (940)
• Temporary visitor visas (910).
https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.../3401.0.55.004

Let's see there...

• This email serves as a notification that your request to undertake travel in accordance with the Directions restricting travel into, and within the State of Western Australia has been RECEIVED.
  • ​​​​​​​Application status: REJECTED. Reason for unsuccessful application: Proposed travel itinerary as you have declared that you will be in Victoria in the 14 days prior to your arrival in Western Australia. (Note, I didn't declare that at all, their website coding wasn't up to date. I haven't been in Victoria in years)
• ​​​​​​​This email serves as a notification that your request to undertake travel in accordance with the Directions restricting travel into, and within the State of Western Australia has been RECEIVED.
  • Application status: REJECTED. In line with the Quarantine (Closing the Border) Amendment Directions (No 2) your G2G PASS has NOT BEEN APPROVED for entry into Western Australia (Due to being in NSW within the last 14 days).
• ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​This email serves as a notification that your request to undertake travel in accordance with the Directions restricting travel into, and within the State of Western Australia has been RECEIVED.
  • ​​​​​​​Application status:REJECTED. In line with Section 5 (e)(i) of the Quarantine (Closing the Border) Amendment Directions (No 3) your G2G PASS has NOT BEEN APPROVED for entry into Western Australia.

Yep, those important things, you know, like being able to put food on the table, or keep the lights on, because I'm not eligible for JobKeeper or Centerlink benefits really mean a lot to the team at Operation Tide who overseas those applications. BTW, go have a look at the Quarantine (Closing the Border) Amendment Directions (No 2) order. People from NSW were still permitted to travel, but Victoria was locked out. But still the application was rejected and you have no recourse, no avenue to appeal.

A 309 is a temporary visa (other) and they have paid many thousands of $'s and often waited 18+ months for that visa.

Any reason you singled that group?

Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post
Two things that will change our position
A vaccine
A reliable quick test that can be used to better manage our border controls



A reliable quick test is being tested in Israel at the moment. Without looking up anything I did see a news item on it last week
on 3aw. It would provide a 30 sec result. It would be 98% accurate. Well lets hope it's a goer.
This will come out before any vaccine I reckon. If available it would open all borders (wether you like it or not premiers) crossing by car, bus, train, plane, at check in or at the crossings.
Your negative go through, your positive turn back and isolate. Probably still not good enough for the premiers.
Watching this space though.

We are very good at drug and alcohol detection in the workplace within our mining industry, we have zero tolerance yet they still keep turning up in full knowledge of that. These are small numbers and it's dealt with and managed well. That's still a problem though and it shouldn't be happening. A reliable quick test for covid would be no different.
Confidence that a plane load of passengers are arriving negative and proven on arrival would do it for me. I have no doubt it would do it for the greater majority too.
It would be a brave government that refused the decision of the greater majority in any state and in reality I don't believe they would.