From The Lancet April 2021

Vaccine efficacy is generally reported as a relative risk reduction (RRR). It uses the relative risk (RR)—ie, the ratio of attack rates with and without a vaccine—which is expressed as 1–RR. Ranking by reported efficacy gives relative risk reductions of 95% for the Pfizer–BioNTech, 94% for the Moderna–NIH, 91% for the Gamaleya, 67% for the J&J, and 67% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccines.
ARRs tend to be ignored because they give a much less impressive effect size than RRRs: 1·3% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 1·2% for the Moderna–NIH, 1·2% for the J&J, 0·93% for the Gamaleya, and 0·84% for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines.
ARR is also used to derive an estimate of vaccine effectiveness, which is the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one more case of COVID-19 as 1/ARR. NNVs bring a different perspective: 81 for the Moderna–NIH, 78 for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 108 for the Gamaleya, 84 for the J&J, and 119 for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines.

So you may assume worst case that all of Australia gets infected. Roughly 26 million cases. If we all in the words of minister Hazardous “go for gold and vaccinate baby” that means that only 25781512 of us will be infected. Based on NNV of 119 for Pfizer.
Awesome!

But it would end lockdowns.
IFR of Covid calculated at a mean of 0.23% across all ages and sex. Refer to below.

Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data
John P A Ioannidis
a Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, 1265 Welch Road, Stanford, California 94305, United States of America.
Correspondence to John P A Ioannidis (email: [email protected]).
(Submitted: 13 May 2020 – Revised version received: 13 September 2020 – Accepted: 15 September 2020 – Published online: 14 October 2020)
Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%)

Probably comparable to the flu in younger populations. Certainly south of 0.23%.
So ARR of severe cases and death was NOT an end point In Pfizer clinical trial data so it was not reported.
CDC recently reported on 9000 breakthrough cases with 835 hospitalisations and 130 deaths. Reported by CDC.
Israel recently reported on 1692 breakthrough cases with hospitalisation of 596 and 364 deaths. Reported by Israeli Health Ministry.
How effective are these vaccines at reducing severe cases and death? You do the numbers.
I refuse to draw any conclusions from media reports and YouTube doctors.
No concrete peer reviewed data yet but real world data not painting a good picture.

For what it’s worth I am waiting on my 2nd Pfizer jab so no attacks please.

Making statements like 43 inches “go get vaccinated and get on with it” are misguided.
The government wants a way out of lockdowns. So they are pushing experimental vaccines because that’s what everyone else is doing.
For those of you who do not want to participate in this global vaccine experiment I say you are entitled to your freedom to choose. I for one will not hold it against you.
No one has the right to push an idea or an ideology on anybody.
Especially when you consider that the benefits of vaccine whilst real are probably grossly over exaggerated.

Seriously? Have you farewelled anyone significant to you in the last 18 months? Watching on from home and then not being able to commemorate their memory together with others? It’s not the same. Not even close. The lowest point for me in this entire crap shoot of the last 18 months was watching the funeral of this hugely significant mentor of mine online and separated from my friends.

Not only did I miss the funeral, but the commemoration and gathering we had planned for 12 months on of his death (because we couldn’t gather together 12 months ago) has also been cancelled due to lock downs.

So excuse me if I call ‘bull sh!t’ on that sentiment 43Inches. It’s not an acceptable alternative. We all acknowledged the short term need. It should not become the default long term solution.

Nope you are incorrect, I don’t see the USA trying to mandate anything draconian. Mandating wearing of masks if not vaccinated in many states - yep. Closing domestic borders - nope, allowing residents and oh Visa holders to enter - yep, allowing a flood of immigrants from Mexico - yep, life going on pretty much as normal despite Delta singing - yep.

Also the big push is vaccination, get vaccinated coming from both sides of the fence, whoops bad terminology as .............

Oh and my source, me I’m currently in the USA

Very well said. Then there is the hypocrisy of certain numbers at certain events, yet personal events get the harsh treatment. It simply is not right.

Ok I didn’t read the article.

But yes the only way to move forward is for mass vaccinations, the rest of the first world is proving this by the opening of countries. Yet Straya is still hamstrung domestically?????

Yes the government and the media are equally to blame. Such a joke and so sad. I feel for everyone that has been effected, oh and it hasn’t stopped. Just when Qantas, Virgin and yes even Rex were really going for it domestically... Bang! Oh so fickle the government. The problem is it is 7 governments (or countries in one) that will never agree.

Stop the blame game, work as one.

You are, we are, all Australian!

Thanks for posting that 'pithblot', a great summarybut it's lost on a certain few who simply are dedicating their lives to debunk anyone's eless opinion/beliefs, something you aren't apparently allowed to have in their sad eyes -(

Last week actually, how I know you can do it online. I will add though we all mourn differently so it suffices for me to watch a service and reflect in my own way.

You can have an opinion, however when you make it public you are influencing other people. And affecting public debate, so you better have your **** in order and thick skin as you will get judged. If you are not critical of what you read and blindly follow others statements without questioning, then good for you, not my style.


You can choose to not vaccinate as I've said before that's your choice, my choice is to ask people to get vacinated for their own good as all science says thats in your interest. If you want to push your anti vax on people, go for it, but show some actual evidence of why other than crackpot science and misunderstood stats with no medical understanding. Saying I'm misguided, well offer some real proof not that tripe you posted, we have been through that covid IS killing 2.5% of those infected in Australia, so don't dig up some rubbish stats that are far from the mark. All you have to do is divide those dead vs those infected. Where your source gets .23% from is monkey science.

Here's the hard stats, covid season 950 odd deaths, vs 36,000 infections that's 2.6% death rate and since the covid is still active the death rate is lagging indicator vs infections. The US with much larger infection rate and deaths is about the same mortality rate. So far the flu over the same period has killed 36 people from 22,000 diagnosed cases with probably 10 times that actual cases of mild flu that never get diagnosed. Taking diagnosed cases alone leaves a death rate of 0.01%. Ok you can believe some guy reporting stats that are pulled from their arse or you can just see the stats from readily available sources.

Also go get vaccinated, and get on with it.

Then we can leave lockdown. I can go back to work and leave you guys to go back to bickering about CASA and whatever.

43 Inches
You have once again demonstrated that you do not understand facts.
No point showing me the CFR that’s a snapshot of the top of the pyramid.
The whole picture is revealed when you know the IFR.
The guy from Stanford knows what he is talking about. You clearly don’t.
But don’t let your misguided ignorance get in the way. Keep posting have at it.

I feel like I have just walked into a QAnon group.

Nobody seems to have mentioned long covid and how it has screwed people. Do you really think Australia would be better if they had followed, say, the UK strategy? Looking from across the ditch, yes that place not in lockdown, but with super tight borders, it is very clear that NSW is a complete mess, largely by politicians saying one thing, then allowing people to do something different. Lockdown should be lockdown, no Bunnings trips, no surfing trips to Bondi, etc. You go all in or you forget it; you simply can't do it half hearted

Actually no, I responded to your tripe you posted, which is copy paste with no explanation as to what you are talking about. Just reading his actual study notes, the levels of seroprevalence was mostly estimated. I severely doubt its accuracy based on what Australia is experiencing, with our testing levels it seems most cases are being caught in the net, therefore IFR and CFR will be very similar.

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_....20.265892.pdf

I get the feeling they all got sick of actual facts being presented in another thread and started another one.

Have you considered changing your name to Karen? I bet you’ve already got the haircut and the managers number on speed dial.

I don’t know where you go those numbers from but here’s some info about breakthrough cases in the US and Israel:

COVID-19 Breakthrough Case Investigations and Reporting

Why you shouldn't be concerned when more vaccinated people are getting infected than unvaccinated - ABC News

The calculated risk of being hospitalised from a breakthrough case after vaccination? 0.004%

The calculated risk of dying from a breakthrough case after vaccination? 0.001%

The current death rate from Covid in Australia is around 2.5%, let’s just say 2%.

So you are 2000 times less likely to die from Covid post vaccination.

I think the real world data is painting a great picture on the effectiveness of vaccines.

Great posts common cents and pithblot

That vid mentions Fiji, they are getting smashed by Covid at the moment due to allowing travelers in, was only a matter of time for them playing with fire before it bit hard. Virtually no cases prior to June 2021, now approaching 36,000 with deaths accelerating. Hopefully it stays centered in Suva and does not get out to the Islands and villages The hospitals there are not equipped for this battle at all.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...d-19/100312726

Interesting to note that 25-30,000 of the cases are from Central District which is a maximum of about 200,000 population. That means case rate is approaching 15% of the population and still rising rapidly, if the undetected seroprevelance rate was as high as indicated by the earlier mentioned study the whole area should be infected by now.

[QUOTE=dr dre;11091106]I don’t know where you go those numbers from but here’s some info about breakthrough cases in the US and Israel:

COVID-19 Breakthrough Case Investigations and Reporting

Why you shouldn't be concerned when more vaccinated people are getting infected than unvaccinated - ABC News

The calculated risk of being hospitalised from a breakthrough case after vaccination? 0.004%

The calculated risk of dying from a breakthrough case after vaccination? 0.001

From your link
CNN broke down the CDC's statistics which included 6,587 breakthrough cases as of July 26. Dividing these by the vaccinated population — 163 million at the time — the broadcaster concluded that less than 0.004 per cent of fully vaccinated people experienced a breakthrough case that led to hospitalisation, with less than 0.001 per cent dying from COVID-19.

You’re kidding me right?
CNN broadcaster data.

Nope, not kidding you at all.

6587 divided by 163,000,000 is 0.004%.

The key part of that CDC report on breakthroughs,

So this is nothing unexpected or out of the ordinary. However it comes from a dataset that is as below;

Thanks for the maths lesson.
Ok. You go with CNN and presumably other media outlets for your factual data.
I’ll refer to the more traditional sources.
Just curious was that peer reviewed by the ABC ? Or was it Fox News?

Sorry common cents, I’m missing your point.

Are you saying that the breakthrough infections are far higher, or the rate of infections are far higher than the minuscule figures provided in the links I posted?

If so could you post the sources where you got your information?

EDIT:

If you’re referring to your post #7020 and the excerpt from the Lancet where you claim the absolute vaccine reduction risk (ARR) is around 0.84-% and therefore 25.78 million Australians will be infected despite being vaccinated?

Then you’ve totally, totally taken that study the wrong way and blown those numbers out of proportion, again, here’s a debunking of your point:

Fact Check-Why Relative Risk Reduction, not Absolute Risk Reduction, is most often used in calculating vaccine efficacy

That's what I was trying to get at earlier, I couldn't work out what all the mass of numbers were about and they made no sense. It seemed like half a data dump taken out of context.

The other issue of un-accounted for virus in the community and the seroprevelance rate. To have the IFR drop to .23% that would assume in the US for instance that there is 10 times the cases in the community over documented.

The seroprevelance rate study in Sydney found the rate to be barely 3 x the notified cases and that was from pretty sparse data, only 38 positives in 5000 tests. So that could possibly drop the current CFR from 2.6 to just over 0.8% IFR.

If you applied IFR to Influenza it would be like 0.0001%. Calculating IFR is basically witchcraft and educate guesswork due to trying to know what you don't know, if you knew, it would be CFR.

For two days last week that VAERS data was revised up to 12000 deaths..then back down to 6800 odd..no explanation why.

Moderna and Pfizer both have warnings about myocarditis and pericarditis on the safety data. I’m interested if anyone has had their Pfizer vaccine then gotten an aviation medical soon after and had unusually high blood pressure readings..?

I reckon a lot of people get high blood pressure by just reading this thread.

I could be wrong.. but my feeling is, without being vaccinated you may end up with very very low blood pressure readings.. as in zero over zero.

Without a vaccine or without a competent doctor with the dozens of excellent therapies that have been developed since the start of 2020.

Having struggled with low blood pressure this could work out perfectly.

I love these uninformed comments. If you end up in hospital, especially in ICU, you get pumped a cocktail of ‘therapies’ to keep you alive. Each one of those with comes with side effects, some which could be long lasting. It literally is a last ditch effort to keep your pulse going. Not to mention the long term complications from the disease. Then there’s the vaccine with mild short term effects (AZ rare issues aside) which keep you out of hospital. I know what I prefer.

If you read across to the main Covid thread in jet blast you will find an informed assessment of myocarditis,
Myocarditis risks

We covered the myocarditis stuff a while back, we're just stuck in a loop at the moment with a couple of clowns just making recurring statements of the same things they were shot down for 100 posts ago. I get the feeling they are bored telemarketers.

High blood pressure is neither a symptom of Myocaridtis or Pericarditis. In fact in both of those conditions it is LOW blood pressure that is a potential symptom, not high blood pressure.

Did you study up on any of those conditions before you made that post?

Yes there is. I simply googled “VAERS” and this was the third google news search result:

Fact Check-6,000 VAERS reports were deleted for being foreign entries, CDC says

There is an explanation, a very simple one. You use language in your posts to hint at a massive conspiracy, but the answers are out there to anyone who does the most simple fact checking.

Honestly it’s getting ridiculous now.......

In total agreement

Agreed. The utter lack of cognitive ability of some of these posters are a real worry. Even more worrying is that these people are in charge of aircraft.

Are we sure about that. Maybe it's time to think up a technical question that only we would know. But then we 'll probably get into an argument over that :)

You may just have stepped on to a gem here without knowing it. I infiltrated a closed conspiracy theory/anti-vaccine closed group once. The ‘leaders’ of this group encourage their flock to go out and spread the word/raise awareness/open people’s eyes etc. Then you see these people go out and try and spread the false information as repetitively as they can. If it is debunked, they attack the source as they’re unable to refute the facts. It’d be quite comical if it wasn’t so serious.

There’s an identified cognitive condition that describes it, the Dunning Kruger effect. It’s people who are so unintelligent they don’t have the capacity to realise they are incorrect (you don’t know what you don’t know).

The best example I can think of in Australia with vaccines is Federal MP and failed furniture salesman Craig Kelly, so dumb he actually thinks he’s uncovered the secrets behind Covid and vaccines that all the top scientists and doctors have missed:

Federal MP Craig Kelly’s relentless war on COVID vaccines.

The Dunning Kruger effect eh Doc. Not possible at all that you suffer slightly? You, the single most avid "pro covid narrative" proponent on this board anywhere. In fact when I look at your recent posts I find zero on anything aviation at all. Thanks for your advice, fortunately I learned early to always seek a second opinion.

Are you a big Pharma shill Doc? (This is a fair question Mods, look at this guys history of posting)

Nothing new unfortunately, it's pretty standard cult mentality. One egotistical leader that may or may not believe in the real purpose just getting kicks from leading a bunch of halfwits on a anarchist roadtrip. Send out the sheep and see what fun we can have causing chaos.

Unfortunately most of the general public don't understand the fact there are individuals out there hell bent on things you don't like. Rapists, Murderers, etc a lot get kicks from doing what they do, some even enjoy it, no manor of education, confinement or torture will change them. The same goes for those that want to go against society in general and spread misinformation. So is it safe to walk dark alleys at night alone, hell no, and never will be until you cure mental illness.

Same thing applies to governance, anything you inform the community to do, know that part of the community will go against it, why, because they just want to make trouble. They won't listen to facts or figures or whats best, they just want to cause trouble and cause mayhem, even at the expense of safety and common sense, and have a laugh when they see people react to them. Reasonable debate over the issues is fine, that's another thing and leads to outcomes, I'm referring to those that just oppose for the sake of it.


Then there's just the stupid, uneducated and straight forward insane.

That's what you fight against when you want something good for the general public.

Comments like that are regurgitated straight from the shepherds mouth.

Perfectly said,when you are ill you take what is given without questioning where or how or how many trials were undertaken on it.
When you get a prescription from the chemist,do you sit down & study the warnings about side effects on the leaflet or do you just accept what your gp has told you to take?
When you decide to travel on an aircraft,do you insist on verifying the pilots experience!!
It seems like we are finally on the right track with getting people vaccinated not helped of course by our fed govt stuff up but the time is coming when the unvaccinated will realise their rights may not equal the majority of the population,that is their choice.

This thread was somewhat informative in the beginning.
Now it’s just a circle jerk of a few self righteous, self appointed arbiters of truth posters, one hand on their mates appendage, and the other, patting their own backs congratulating themselves on how superior they are to those with a different opinion, those asking some questions.

It’s gotten pretty boring, so ill move on, but perhaps the only thing left to ask you fellas is, who had to eat the Sao?

Whatever floats your boat eh.