Hooray 20% back in 12 months & move it on from there

think the answer relies on what happens in the medical labs

BA are to terminate over 1,000 pilots. We are still waiting for the HIV/AIDS vaccine that was promised in 1987. There was a Polio Pandemic in Australia in 1935. This resulted in isolation procedures more severe than today. The restrictions lasted 3+ years. Just in Tasmania over 2,000 were infected with 81 lives lost. The number of Australians infected with paralytic polio was estimated to be 40,000. It took 20 years for a vaccine to prevent polio to be developed.

The following University of Melbourne Faculty of Medicine article published on 18 Jan 2018 in Health and Wellbeing is essential reading.

https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/artic...-polio-scourge

This is exactly why I'm optimistic sunrise will be expedited, or at the very least one time. Non stop is the way of the future.

They can't do it with the current fleet.

Qantas would need to purchase new 350's or potentially lease existing ones at cheap prices.

Then there is the problem that the 350's needed the extra fuel tank, and none currently in operation have it. I don't see them dropping $$$ on new planes right now, and I don't see leasing company's buying up aircraft either.

I can envisage another conversation too:

Qantas: Hi there Fair Work Commissioner, we would like to change a section of one of our EA’s.

FWC: Ok, what does it involve?

Qantas: It’s just a minor clause that determines who gets the sack and who keeps a job.

FWC: Woah, that sounds serious! Why does it need to be changed outside a bargaining period?

Qantas: Well no one could have foreseen the effects of Covid19 on our business so the old EA rules just won’t cut it.

FWC: So these “old rules” that won’t cut it, when were they put in place?

Qantas: Ummmmm.... (mumbles under their breath) today.

FWC: What?!? Did you say today? Like today the 5th of May 2020?

Qantas: Errr... yeah, today but now they don’t suit us. Unforeseen circumstances and all that.

FWC: I’m looking at my notes here and it says you put this EA to a vote while 90% of the pilots were stood down due to Covid19, the borders were closed and your fleet was grounded. So what’s changed since then such that you now need to vary this brand new EA??

Qantas: (crickets)

I think nonsense, especially since there are RPT international flights operating right now.

wake up and smell the coffee, it ain’t gonna happen anytime soon. The CEO just said today that the orders and the project are on ice. It’ll be lucky to happen by 2023, never mind it getting expedited. Ive lowered my career expectations for at least the next 5 years that I need to get comfy in the seat I’m in, if I’m lucky enough not to get made permanently redundant. Clinging on to fanciful ideas that aircraft orders are coming, or that they will be expedited, will only set you up for severe disappointment.

I also believe that Joyce is beginning to condition the workforce to the idea that redundancies are around the corner given his statements that “the Qantas of 2021 and 2022 will not be the Qantas of 2019... We’re looking at the scope and scale of our businesses going forward.”

Just the long term survivability of the company. Nothing major.

Let’s face it, when all said and done probably 30% of us won’t have a flying job, that is the reality of the situation. This is such a unique situation, I think the only reason we haven’t seen wholesale redundancies at Qantas and Jetstar is the fact that they can’t afford it at the moment. They will keep the stand down as long as they can, Joyce is starting to talk about restructuring, shrinkage etc. Our best hope is that by the time they can afford mass redundancies the market is showing enough signs of life that the number who get shown the door will be minimal.

A bit of back of the beer coaster calculations, with the current rate of burning through cash through to late 2021, the extreme cost of RINing, retraining and redundancies through the pilot group would burn the cash so quick that date would be reached far sooner. And that’s just in the pilot group.

More likely than that:

Indefinite stand-downs until future retraining is available (as long as there is a plan to fly in the future no matter what the date a stand down can be effected until that point)

Arrangements are made for alternative work positions for stood down crew until pilot positions are available (positions more substantial than Woolies or Coles but not flying aircraft).

Some incentives for crew who take early retirement

But mostly I think stand downs on a rotating basis to allow excess crew numbers to be absorbed until things return to normal. Basically job sharing, but of course will mean a loss of overall income.

I guess the crew as a whole will have to decide whether they would prefer a system of rotating stand-downs for several years and the associated loss of total income but more people will keep their jobs....
.... or a RIN’s retraining and redundancies that’ll be expensive and probably see a fair few of of the most junior and youngest crew made redundant and be on the streets without work....

Why would Qantas or any other company employees be entitled to more substantial employment than Woolies or Coles over and above any other citizen that has lost their job?

little fibs from the little man....
 

See the leprechaun down in the southern half globe has been making false promises about dirt cheap fares. What a sham. Blind Freddy could read through those stories and press releases designed to assert a level of forward confidence price/market 'encouragement' which is rubbish, along with the assertion that the alleged cheap fares will be available on a mass basis - like 5 seats a flight. What a devious little leprechaun. Pity the readers of the mass press / fake news promoters - will never really understand the backdoorroom deals that are done under the lampshade of the Chairman's 'lounge'. Do they know what they are in for?

I dislike the man as much as the next guy, but in this case he’s doing his job: spruiking the airline and trying to boost confidence in the market.

As far as 2021 goes, no one, including Joyce, has a clue about what that’s going to look like. Post-virus the regulatory and political landscape will be different, the competition regulatory regime may be entirely different and the financial, industrial and demand landscapes are all going to be changed. It is still completely unknown what competition there will be, what the aircraft market will be and when or what destinations will be safe enough to schedule. To say nothing of the economy.

But yeah, back room deals aplenty being made with zero visibility. Sure.

If Qantas has a straight line pilot seniority system,they are in real trouble with the cost of retraining with fleet rationalisation and the domino effect of that system with retrenchment in reverse seniority order.Virgin on the other hand, should they survive,will retrench with aircraft types that are removed from the fleet.A much more cost effective method in these sad times for flight crew.

The world of 2021 and 2022 is certainly not going to be the world of 2019.

Fair enough, can we at least agree that the flying public will prefer to fly non stop? (hence why there would be a strong business case)

I’ll meet you halfway, yes, there is definitely a large portion of the market who will pay a premium to fly direct. I still think it’ll happen eventually but Qantas will need to get through and recover from the COVID crisis first. No one knows how long it will take international demand to recover, Qantas certainly won’t be taking premature risks that will spook investors.

The QF fleet is too old, Alan has let that slip during his reign in my view for far too long to make the bottom line look better. And along the same line, the level of cabin quality I'm offered in F and J is outright embarrassing - although I admittedly haven't been on a refurbed A380 yet - but am told F is the same and J is the same as the 787, which is a knee bumping exercise in claustrophobia.

But that could all turn into a blessing in disguise, a dip into the war chest could now provide a fleet renewal that sets QF up for a position to handle non stop ULRs into European destinations and providing a significant edge. Now is the time to negotiate the purchase of the A350s as well as the slots. All can be had at an extra rebate with everyone desperate to make a sale. I hope Alan is just playing the strings of politics with the announcement that sunrise is one ice, to make the upcoming job losses more palatable. It might just be a restructuring in disguise.

I'm sorry to put that so bluntly, I realise several participants here appear to be working for QF. I have for well over a decade brought my money to QF, several $100k all up. As a former airline pilot myself I see below the glitter on the surface and value the safety culture up front (and in the back when they're not too self important about it).

PAX like me are happy to pay a premium to avoid a stopover. But not at the cost of getting dropped off in the slums of Heathrow. And the showers up front in the EK A380s admittedly have been a deciding factor on which outfit I choose (albeit on QF flight numbers, so QF still gets their share). As I like to say to my wife when we're on those flights, at least we'll die in style. And that's all I can say about that.

Qantas dropped the ball. No question - now they are fighting for survival (arguable survival) I notice a change in the writer of company missives. At least, they seem far better educated as it appears to me.

This is clearly out in the wild, it's mutating and (I've just read) an even more virulent Italian strain has evolved.

Methinks this will be the gift that keeps on giving - and for years to come. Could I love the Chinese and especially their bio labs more???

This is clearly out in the wild, it's mutating and (I've just read) an even more virulent Italian strain has evolved.

Methinks this will be the gift that keeps on giving - and for years to come. Could I love the Chinese and especially their bio labs more???


everyone of those statements is false news..................