We will all eventually get COVID-19, its not about trying to stop it. The important thing is to try and prevent to many people becoming infected at the same time... flatten the bell curve if you like.

The following written by Dr Adam Visser explains.

"I’m an intensive care specialist in a small city.

Coronavirus isn’t just like the flu, but it’s only really very dangerous to the elderly or the already unwell. Quite a lot of people in their 80s will die, but most of the rest of us will probably be okay.

If you’re in your 70s and you get Coronavirus, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 60s and you have a heart attack, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 50s and need bowel cancer surgery, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 40s and have a bad car accident, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 30s and have terrible pre-eclampsia as a complication of pregnancy, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

If you’re in your 20s and have a bad reaction to a party drug, you’ve got a really good chance of survival. If I’ve got a bed for you.

I have 7 beds equipped with life support machines. We have a plan to increase to about 25. Getting more isn’t a matter or more equipment or more money, that bit is easy. There are not enough skilled staff, even if we all work double shifts every day for six months (and we probably will).

If 50% of my city gets infected, that’s 75,000 people. If 5% of them need life support (which is the estimate), that’s 3750 people. For 25 beds.

And then I might not have a bed for you.

So it’s up to you to flatten the curve. Wash your hands. Stay home."

What a muppet. Pretty irresponsible for him to come out and say that when it’s at odds with what the National authority is saying.

Supermarkets generally hold about 2 days worth of food. They are replenished via “just in time “ logistics systems (kanban). So it takes about 6-7 days of panic buying for customers to get that buffer.

New York has only 8 hours worth of food in its stores....

Pilots are experts and just super knowledgeable about everything.

How to run an airline better than everyone else, kinda goes without saying I suppose.
Economics.
Government.
Epidemiology.
And now, supermarket supply chain management.

Pilots come from all sort backgrounds, I have worked with pilots who have who have experience in all those fields except for Epidemiology. ( but I have meet 2 pilots who have become Drs.) I even have experience in one of those fields. Unlike a lot of other industries where people tend to go to Uni then work in their given field their whole career Pilots tend to come from a broad background of experience. There are also professionals in other fields who have an interest in aviation and post here.

🤣🤣 filler words

A data science prof at UCL in london has been publishing some good data on progression rates in various countries to show what could be coming in the near future for those just starting to see in country transmissions e.g. UK is about 14 days behind Italy. He's not a epidemic expert but the data appears robust and the analysis seems logical to me.

Worth checking it out - COVID 19 Growth Rate

Good news for OZ is that hotter climates seem to have a less aggressive growth line than colder climates (see graph about 2/3rds of the way down the page).
NB for any folks not used to log graphs (hopefully not too many) a straight line graph is NOT a good thing - shallower slope is better (i.e. less bad) but still not good....

As someone who has just returned to the UK after 4 weeks in WA in 30+ degrees not so reassuring :-)

Stay safe.

This too shall pass....

That's why I've been saying the China figures are bogus. All of a sudden they are back to normal and no one else in the country is getting infected?

China is desperate to show they have beaten this.

Hmmmm. I don't think so.

Very odd
NSW told to prepare for 8,000 deaths
USA modelling 1.5 million deaths

and China just 3,000.

Sure I get that unprecedented isolation measures put the virus back in its box.

But relax the measures and it has to break out. If it doesn’t (and it isn’t so far), then very odd indeed.

UK are set to close pubs and restaurants, if Australia follows, it will be time to dust off the camping gear and head for the bush.

mjb

I agree. The other thing that hasn't been considered is the few reinfection cases of people who previously had it. Maybe they were misdiagnosed initially, but that is a scary prospect if there isn't inherent immunity in those who have already theoretically kicked it. China is about to find out, it seems.

I wonder if all those people who panic bought TP, have checked the expiry date on each roll?

These NAAT tests have a few issues. The one you are alluding to here is that they are probably only 70-80% sensitive (that is, they will be negative 20-30% of the time when they should be positive). This has more to do with the adequacy of sampling than it does with the the test per se. So it is quite possible to have a false negative test followed by a true positive test a week later. You have been positive throughout, but a test came back false negative as it missed the virus.

This isn't reinfection. This is a function of the performance of the tests when applied to real world collection and processing of samples. With 100's of thousands of people who have been tested, there are going to be countless examples of this pattern.

At the end of the day, this is just a resp virus. A bit more lethal than others, and we don't have any heard immunity to it. So the virus needs to be taken seriously. But it doesn't have magical properties.

It is likely you can only get it once, although it is possible you could get a 2nd (likely milder) case some years later.

And the virus could be unstable (like influenza) that changes each year. But it will be less deadly in future as we will likely retain a degree of heard immunity.

So there are some people who we do want to encourage??

Still think the Pandemic thread belongs in jet blast?

Try "herd" as in herd of cattle

It is herd immunity, as in a herd of cows etcetera, not, as you so quaintly put it, 'heard'. Sorry to be such a pedant. Apologies to Chris, I have just noticed his post

I believe the virology expert from the USA who recently returned from the front lines in Wuhan and stated categorically that China has been nothing but transparent throughout this outbreak. Shocked the heck out of me but he’s been on the front lines of epidemics since the days of SARS and has no motivation to lie about it.

So when an atomic inspector gives Iran the all-clear you believe that too?

I tend to believe the Chinese numbers right now...the same way SARS was stopped has put the brakes on the rate of infection. To follow the bushfire analogy however, there are still hidden embers that may flare up again once containment measures are relaxed.
I think this is still early in the first innings.