PPRuNe Forums - BB solves JT 610 crash

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BB solves JT 610 crash

BB, after an exhaustive investigation of all the facts, states of NineMSN today that it was due "to lack of crew training".

An here I was thinking that GT was the only idiot to rush into print professing to know the cause of an accident within minutes. I thought BB's comments regarding MH 370 were credible, but he's losing the plot now. Anything to appear in print?

The man was never a QFI nor a Training Captain.

I thought he was a CC with Emirates on the B777 - which actually means he should know better than to rush into print.

Yep, it’s in print now. There’s some more ‘gems’ he’s offered as to the cause and how to prevent a similar accident.

https://www.9news.com.au/world/2018/...eing-737-crash

Quote:

"The problem with these budgets airlines is that unlike Qantas, Emirates and everyone else, the pilots get in the flight simulator every six months and practice these things.

"But if these guys are running on a low budget, they aren’t getting their simulator training."

I could understand if he was critiquing the quality of their training or the standards being maintained by Indonesian carriers but I wouldn’t have any doubt they actually complete the minimum recurrent sim training as required by the regulator.

From Wikipedia:

Incidents and accidents

On 14 January 2002, Lion Air Flight 386, a Boeing 737-200 crashed after trying to take-off with an incorrect flap configuration at Sultan Syarif Kasim II International Airport. Everyone on board survived but the aircraft was written off[28].
On 30 November 2004, Lion Air Flight 538, a McDonnell Douglas MD-82, crashed in Surakarta with registration PK-LMN (c/n 49189); 25 people died.[29]
On 4 March 2006, Lion Air Flight 8987, a McDonnell Douglas MD-82, crashed after landing at Juanda International Airport.[30] Reverse thrust was used during landing, although the left thrust reverser was stated to be out of service.[30] This caused the aircraft to veer to the right and skid off the runway, coming to rest about 7,000 feet (2,100 m) from the approach end of the runway.[30] There were no fatalities, but the aircraft was badly damaged[30] and later written off.[31]
On 24 December 2006, Lion Air Flight 792, a Boeing 737-400, landed with an incorrect flap configuration and was not aligned with the runway.[32] The plane landed hard and skidded along the runway causing the right main landing gear to detach, the left gear to protrude through the wing and some of the aircraft fuselage to be wrinkled.[32] There were no fatalities, but the aircraft was written off.[32]
On 23 February 2009, Lion Air Flight 972, a McDonnell Douglas MD-82 landed without the nose gear at Hang Nadim International Airport, Batam.
On 9 March 2009, Lion Air Flight 793, a McDonnell Douglas MD-90-30 (registration PK-LIL) ran off the runway at Soekarno–Hatta International Airport. No-one was injured.[33]
On 2 November 2010, Lion Air Flight 712, a Boeing 737-400 (registration PK-LIQ) overran the runway on landing at Supadio Airport, Pontianak, coming to rest on its belly and sustaining damage to its nose gear. All 174 passengers and crew evacuated by the emergency slides, with few injuries.[34]
On 13 April 2013, Lion Air Flight 904, a Boeing 737-800 (registration PK-LKS; c/n 38728) from Bandung to Denpasar with 108 people on board, crashed into the water near Denpasar/Bali while attempting to land. The aircraft’s fuselage broke into two parts.[35] While Indonesian officials reported the aircraft crashed short of the runway,[35] reporters and photographers from Reuters and the Associated Press indicated that the plane overshot the runway.[36]
[37] All passengers and crew were evacuated from the aircraft and there were no fatalities.[35]
On 6 August 2013, Lion Air Flight 892, a Boeing 737-800 (registration PK-LKH; c/n 37297) from Makassar to Gorontalo with 117 passengers and crew on board, hit a cow while landing at Jalaluddin Airport and veered off the runway. There were no injuries.[38]
On 1 February 2014, Lion Air Flight 361, a Boeing 737-900ER (registration PK-LFH; c/n 35710), from Balikpapan Sultan Aji Muhammad Sulaiman Airport to Ngurah Rai International Airport in Denpasar/Bali via Juanda International Airport in Surabaya, with 222 passengers and crew on board, landed hard and bounced four times on the runway, causing a tail strike and substantial damage to the plane. There were no fatalities, but two passengers were seriously injured and three others had minor injuries.[39]
On 20 February 2016, Lion Air Flight 263 from Balikpapan Sultan Aji Muhammad Sulaiman Airport to Juanda International Airport in Surabaya overran the runway on landing, with no injuries.[40] The National Transportation Safety Committee investigation into the incident found that failures in crew resource management led to improper landing procedures, and recommended that Indonesian airlines improve pilot training.[41]
On 2 April 2017, about 300 litres [42] of fuel spilled on the tarmac at Juanda International Airport in Surabaya. Pictures taken by passengers on board showed fuel pouring out of one of the aircraft's wings.[43] Shortly after, all passengers were evacuated and the plane was grounded for further investigation. No casualties were reported. That same day a representative from Lion Air was summoned by the Indonesian Transport Ministry to clarify the incident. An early statement by a Lion Air representative said that the leak was caused by a non-functioning safety valve and overflow detector.[44]
On 29 April 2018, Lion Air Flight 892, a 737-800 (registration PK-LOO), made a runway excursion at Jalaluddin Airport after landing under heavy rain conditions, resulting in the main nose gear to collapse. There were no fatalities.
On 29 October 2018, Lion Air Flight 610, a 737 MAX 8, crashed in the Java Sea 13 minutes after takeoff from Jakarta, with all 189 passengers and crew onboard missing, presumed dead.[45]

He's shot from the hip for sure, but he could also be forgiven for thinking what he thinks.

189 dead, the ticket must have been EXTREMELY cheap!

Folks,
There is a high probability he is correct.
Tootle pip!!

Quote:

Folks,
There is a high probability he is correct.

I thought that BB gave an excellent summation of the situation given the information published so far. He is a highly experienced and current pilot on jet transport types and knows what he is talking about.

"current pilot on jet transport types" - okay, I'll ask the obvious: "What types of jet transport category aircraft is Mr Byron Bailey current on?; and a supplementary, "What CAR216 organisation is he permitted to fly under?"

Reading his comments in the above URL, he did fail to mention that even the major airlines, can have an accident. EK's B777 in DXB attempting a simple go-around, does come to mind.

He was on Sky news talking to David Speers saying “they were probably at 25000 so it was it was probably catastrophic,” if I were to be interviewed I would have looked at Flight Radar 24 first and also had a look at Pprune to see if someone had more information, (I already had so as soon as he said it I didn’t give him much credibility) I was less than impressed with the aviation expert Sky chose to talk to.

Quote:

Reading his comments in the above URL, he did fail to mention that even the major airlines, can have an accident. EK's B777 in DXB attempting a simple go-around, does come to mind.

And on the subject of runway excursions......

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeadSled (Post 10296327)

There is a high probability he is correct.

Yeah, probably. Maybe somebody forgot to remove the pitot tube covers. Maybe the ADC was giving some whacky airspeed indicators. More likely it will be something simple that has ended up causing mass confusion in the cockpit. I'd be very surprised if there was anything mechanically wrong with the aircraft to cause the crash. Wait and see what the CVR reveals.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Centaurus (Post 10296340)

He is a highly experienced and current pilot on jet transport types and knows what he is talking about.

Lots of us fall into that category, but it doesn’t mean we know what happened.

I don’t really agree with his conclusions but from experience he has a point about the safety culture.

I have personally witnessed so many dumb things done by these guys here in SEA like accepting 15 knot tail wind departures on wet runways, requesting a RNP approach in an aircraft not certified for it, through to intersection departures at night on wet runways.

The whole system in Indonesia needs overhauling, when the tower will ask you what wind you need to accept the runway they are using you know there is a problem.

I have the photos and videos if anyone is interested too.

Bales is current on the Falcon 900 and other corporate jets and flies internationally and domestically FYI

kawkerxp, are you saying they illegally accepted those conditions against FCOM, or are you saying they’ve accepted those conditions at limiting weights and if so how do you know they were limiting?

If it’s within limitations, and they have the performance to do so, I don’t see the issue unless being performance limited at TOGA with other options available.

Bula, I’m not sure on the limitations for that particular aircraft but it was pretty silly in my opinion when there is a safer option.

When the tower asked us what we needed the wind to be for take off they subsequently changed their read out even though the wind sock doesn’t lie.

All I am saying is that when you have had a few bingles it might be advisable to go with the conservative options... take for example the airlines that are last to stop and first to fly after the number of volcanic eruptions, do they have better information? Or do they just have a higher risk tolerance? I don’t know the answer but the numbers don’t lie.

Lead Sled & Centaurus - I think he's PROBABLY correct too, but to come out and declare that you know the cause within a few hours is simply "off". I'm at least as qualified as BB, though not now current (my last Bizjet, same as what BB flies) was five years ago, and I've long learned to keep my powder dry until all the facts are out.

As long as the performance figures allow for it, I would argue a higher V speed with lower thrust using the into wind can be as safe as a lower V speed and higher thrust setting with a tailwind.

I guess safety and buffers are an individual preference rather than a legal one.

Sad events none the less.

History has shown many times that relying purely on the legal requirements doesn’t always provide for the safest outcome.

Safety should be the first thing that is considered and ingrained in everything that we do as mere mortals.