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-   -   So you need a new fleet Leigh? (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/604103-so-you-need-new-fleet-leigh.html)

Bootstrap1 8th Feb 2018 05:28

Sorry I thought the 787 was replacing the 380 out of Melbourne and not an additional service. My bad. I should pay better attention to the press releases next time.
Google also said it replaced a 744 not the 380, still a reduction of over 100 seats. Someone is going to notice
Cheers

C441 9th Feb 2018 02:10

Since it became available, the 787 has been doing 5/week MEL-LAX-MEL along with the daily A380. For a month it was to replace the A380 for a month but it now will replace it for 4 of the daily services.
From 25th March, when MEL-PER-LHR starts, it will go back to the original schedule; 5/week until at lest September.

Bula 9th Feb 2018 03:43

Considering the A350 is up to 90 tonne heavier than the 787, is it really surprising burning 1000 kg/hr more?

dragon man 9th Feb 2018 04:00


Originally Posted by C441 (Post 10046749)
Since it became available, the 787 has been doing 5/week MEL-LAX-MEL along with the daily A380. For a month it was to replace the A380 for a month but it now will replace it for 4 of the daily services.
From 25th March, when MEL-PER-LHR starts, it will go back to the original schedule; 5/week until at lest September.

From the loads I’ve been watching on these two flights what the Einstein’s have done is taken one A380 with a very high load factor and now have two flights with at best a break even but more likely a loss making load factor. IMO that’s why they are going to do SFO from Melbourne, however they still need to get the 787 to Lax for maintenance hence the two services a week.

dragon man 9th Feb 2018 06:00


Originally Posted by mmmbop (Post 10046830)
A350-9 280T.
B787-9 254T

The A350-9 is over-burning by close to 1000kgs/hr over Airbus quoted specs. It is also over-burning by close to 1000kgs/hr compared to the 787-9 on the same route.

Excuse my ignorance here but what are the payload and pax numbers for both?

TurningFinalRWY36 9th Feb 2018 06:36

Not sure where you are getting bad performer from, on 15hr sectors we are burning average of 6T/hr carrying upto 42T of payload. Compared to a 77W on a similar route we are burning almost 30T less with a comparable payload

dragon man 9th Feb 2018 07:10


Originally Posted by TurningFinalRWY36 (Post 10046846)
Not sure where you are getting bad performer from, on 15hr sectors we are burning average of 6T/hr carrying upto 42T of payload. Compared to a 77W on a similar route we are burning almost 30T less with a comparable payload

Just imagine if you had the right aircraft for the right route (Qantas) you could operate a 747 on that 15 hour sector at about 11 tonnes an hour average for a 30 tonne payload. We really are managed by a bunch of clowns.

TurningFinalRWY36 9th Feb 2018 07:43

And on that 15hr sector carrying enough fuel for a total endurance of 16.5hrs, people like to rip on airbus but they have made a great aircraft of the A359

patty50 9th Feb 2018 09:16

The A350-1000 will be in town on Monday. Can’t even decide if they want 787s they ordered 12 years ago though so probably a waste of time for airbus.

Captain Dart 9th Feb 2018 19:54

Well, I have just started operating the A350-900 into AUS; on first impressions it has the same burn as a 330 but with about 30-40 more pax and gets there 20 mins faster (0.85 IMN cruise). As for the flight deck; it's Star Wars, man. Stunning. Airbus got this aircraft right.

IsDon 10th Feb 2018 00:52


Originally Posted by Captain Dart (Post 10047751)
Airbus got this aircraft right.

I guess there’s a first time for everything.

LeadSled 10th Feb 2018 01:12

Folks,
And now fuel prices are headed up again, the great "turnaround" starts to fray at the edges, is QANTAS EVER seriously modernize the fleet???

With a good investment rating, Qantas has no trouble financing whatever, Airbus or Boeing, talk otherwise in camouflage -- but camouflage for what agenda, the "interests of the shareholders"???

Tootle pip!!

gordonfvckingramsay 10th Feb 2018 03:37

Oh the irony:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qantassaurus

Rated De 11th Feb 2018 05:12


And now fuel prices are headed up again, the great "turnaround" starts to fray at the edges, is QANTAS EVER seriously modernize the fleet???

http://www.iata.org/publications/eco...nts/ChartB.png


It is only when the tide goes out you will see who has been swimming naked...

Transition Layer 15th Feb 2018 03:36

Qantas could be flying towards fleet renewal spending cliff, says S&P

Blind Freddy could have seen this coming. But first we need to blame the foreign ownership laws, and then we’ll blame the pilots for not taking the Network/Jetconnect changes lying down.

LeadSled 15th Feb 2018 04:35

Folks,
All the S&P analysis says it what has already been said here, time and again. And, of course, many other places.
So the question remains, what is the real long term agenda??
Tootle pip!!

ExtraShot 15th Feb 2018 04:47

People have been saying what a GENIUS bunch the current management are due to the turn around... but us idiot Pilots and Engineers (and others) have been saying otherwise. Most of us have been indicating that fleet renewal should have been ongoing throughout this period, yet is hasn’t. What would we know!?

Now, it’s seems even the Financial Gurus are cottoning on!
Snippets From the Australian Financial Review, my bolding:


Ratings agency Standard & Poor's says Qantas will have to significantly boost investment in aircraft just as it may have to resume paying company tax in 2020...
OOPS!



. Qantas has used surplus capital to fund shareholder returns rather than grow invested capital, S&P said.
well, Duh!



. We believe increased aircraft investment is inevitable for Qantas given its older fleet and large international exposure," S&P said.
Indeed it is. And so, the choice they now have, is either they renew the fleet, or the competition eventually eats their lunch.

Qantas Management may very well be furious with S&P right now. The only ammo they really had against Mainline Pilots, was to hold Aircraft orders, ‘fleet renewal’, over their heads. Now those darned investment rating/banker types have gone and told everyone that Qantas is at a point where fleet renewal has to happen Regardless.

It has taken a while, but management seemed to have backed themselves into a little bit of a corner here. Thus, I’m fairly skeptical of Managers seeking Pilot capitulation on the Network/Jetconnect issue,( because otherwise we won’t be able to defend the line against Virgin), in return for heading to the board about ordering more 787s, when, if they don’t order more 787s, the company will be unable to defend its line against Virgin (and others) anyway.

Qantas 787 15th Feb 2018 04:51

The journos should put the hard questions to the CFO in the half yearly results. He is the reason the airline will face this problem.....

Rated De 15th Feb 2018 05:11

A quick check tells you that S&P are not inside the tent with the 'approved' analysts. You know the ones that get 'special briefings'


"Since its financial turnaround in fiscal 2015, Qantas has used surplus capital to fund shareholder returns rather than to grow invested capital.
"We do not view this as sustainable."
As we stated repeatedly nearly $1.75 billion was blown lining their own pockets with curiously timed option vesting dates.

Whilst the tide hasn't yet receded sufficiently to see how naked the little fellow swam, it has turned.

Declining international yields, rising jet fuel prices....
One may postulate that the short side open interest may rise in the near term if Qantas don't succeed in getting stories like this pulled from mainstream papers with advertising spend..

Nero and Rome

neville_nobody 15th Feb 2018 05:45

Problem is that people have been saying QF will go broke/collapse for 20+ years, yet they never do and life goes on.

What's different this time as opposed to the other previous near financial disasters?

blow.n.gasket 15th Feb 2018 07:28


What's different this time as opposed to the other previous near financial disasters?
A Jetstar fixated woofta pikey , thats about to be caught out by IFRS accounting standards , that’s what’s different this time around !

Nunc 15th Feb 2018 09:41

Face it, thanks to inept management at all levels QANTAS is the Titanic looking for an iceberg.

Capt Fathom 15th Feb 2018 10:12

I don’t think the Qantas as we know it, has long to live. It will be broken up into many fractured pieces, poorly disguised as one entity.
The flying public will happily pay the low fares and conveniently ignore the truth.
RIP.

blow.n.gasket 15th Feb 2018 20:40


I don’t think the Qantas as we know it, has long to live. It will be broken up into many fractured pieces, poorly disguised as one entity.
Qantas is already many fractured pieces , some more fractured than others , it’s called the Qantas Group .

ExtraShot 15th Feb 2018 23:19


.What's different this time as opposed to the other previous near financial disasters?
Nev, it’s not so much talk of financial disaster, or the collapse of Qantas. But the foundations for that will start to appear if they try to navigate the next downturn with their current fleet.

The new narrative, out just this week,seems to be that if Short Haul Pilots don’t accept Open slather Network/Jetconnect flying without written scope, that no more 787s can be ordered.

Like a kid being offered an Ice Cream for being good for his mum at the shops, if SH Pilots behave, then we Might be able to get the board to agree to buy more 787s... otherwise, those options are just going to be allowed to lapse. (Alan Joyce has said they won’t buy anymore until the 787 Business case proves itself, so there’s already a conflicting statement to the above, unless 3 months of flying a part schedule has told them what 600 plus aircraft flying around the world already should have).

As we all know, QF can’t fly it’s current fleet forever. Even ratings agencies are starting to notice that they HAVE to spend money on fleet improvements to remain competitive. And Soon! So QF Pilots should be looking at threats like this with the utmost suspicion.

If Qf weren’t to spend that money, perhaps we can analyze what happens when Oil goes back to $100 plus per barrel, and Qf is flying 15-20yr old 747s and A330s against its competition, who have a350s and 787s... (what’s the fuel burn per seat of a QF 744 vs a new SQ 787-10?).

Transition Layer 15th Feb 2018 23:32


Originally Posted by ExtraShot (Post 10054487)
Nev, it’s not so much talk of financial disaster, or the collapse of Qantas. But the foundations for that will start to appear if they try to navigate the next downturn with their current fleet.

The new narrative, out just this week,seems to be that if Short Haul Pilots don’t accept Open slather Network/Jetconnect flying without written scope, that no more 787s can be ordered.

Like a kid being offered an Ice Cream for being good for his mum at the shops, if SH Pilots behave, then we Might be able to get the board to agree to buy more 787s... otherwise, those options are just going to be allowed to lapse. (Alan Joyce has said they won’t buy anymore until the 787 Business case proves itself, so there’s already a conflicting statement to the above, unless 3 months of flying a part schedule has told them what 600 plus aircraft flying around the world already should have).

As we all know, QF can’t fly it’s current fleet forever. Even ratings agencies are starting to notice that they HAVE to spend money on fleet improvements to remain competitive. And Soon! So QF Pilots should be looking at threats like this with the utmost suspicion.

If Qf weren’t to spend that money, perhaps we can analyze what happens when Oil goes back to $100 plus per barrel, and Qf is flying 15-20yr old 747s and A330s against its competition, who have a350s and 787s... (what’s the fuel burn per seat of a QF 744 vs a new SQ 787-10?).

This ^ :D :ok:

Rated De 15th Feb 2018 23:57


But the foundations for that will start to appear if they try to navigate the next downturn with their current fleet
They fiddled whilst Rome burned, rewarding themselves handsomely.
They were gifted an Australian icon with a clean balance sheet and the youngest fleet age in IATA of 6.3 years.

Take out the JQ 'experiment' and the Qantas fleet age exceeds 10.5 years.
Renewal is an imperative becoming increasingly obvious to the market.

Any contract discussion is curious as the necessity to replace the fleet on fuel CASK metrics alone is ably demonstrated.

The pilots can afford to be indifferent and remember An emergency on Qantas management's part does not constitute a need to sign a hastily put together contract...

Get the aircraft or don't get the aircraft ought be the message to the self appointed smartest guys in the room!

Indifference to their 'rubbish narrative' will serve each individual well!

What The 16th Feb 2018 02:10

Andrew David $8m last year
Alan Joyce $25m last year

And they are worried about what they pay their pilots?

Seriously?

dragon man 16th Feb 2018 04:16

IMO it’s time we collectively ( the Qantas pilots) stopped bailing management out. Without our goodwill numerous flights every day would be cancelled. This morning there was no Capt for the 63 , they got the 25 Capt going to Haneda tonight to operate that and then found someone else to operate that tonight. One SO position was anther Capt who could only operate over and pax home because he’s out of hours. This sort of thing occurs daily on all fleets, it’s time to let the chickens come home to roost.

neville_nobody 16th Feb 2018 04:52


The new narrative, out just this week,seems to be that if Short Haul Pilots don’t accept Open slather Network/Jetconnect flying without written scope, that no more 787s can be ordered.
That there is the same spin that has been going on for some 20 years. Just change the names and aircraft types around Jetstar/National Jet/Jet Connect/Network etc

I remember a few years ago it was all doom & gloom sub $1 shares and look what happened. And the time before, and the time before that.

What you have to remember with large corporations is that it is just a game moving assests/cash around to create whatever narrative you wish to dictate.

What The 16th Feb 2018 05:07

If you want to know where the cash has gone to renew Qantas’ mainline fleet check how many Jetstar leases are being bought out by Qantas. The aircraft are then being leased backed to Jetstar at what I am certain are commercial rates. Driven by changes to financial reporting.
Alan’s folly has come home to roost.

Justin. Beaver 16th Feb 2018 05:40


Originally Posted by ExtraShot (Post 10054487)
Nev, it’s not so much talk of financial disaster, or the collapse of Qantas. But the foundations for that will start to appear if they try to navigate the next downturn with their current fleet.

The new narrative, out just this week,seems to be that if Short Haul Pilots don’t accept Open slather Network/Jetconnect flying without written scope, that no more 787s can be ordered.

Like a kid being offered an Ice Cream for being good for his mum at the shops, if SH Pilots behave, then we Might be able to get the board to agree to buy more 787s... otherwise, those options are just going to be allowed to lapse. (Alan Joyce has said they won’t buy anymore until the 787 Business case proves itself, so there’s already a conflicting statement to the above, unless 3 months of flying a part schedule has told them what 600 plus aircraft flying around the world already should have).

As we all know, QF can’t fly it’s current fleet forever. Even ratings agencies are starting to notice that they HAVE to spend money on fleet improvements to remain competitive. And Soon! So QF Pilots should be looking at threats like this with the utmost suspicion.

If Qf weren’t to spend that money, perhaps we can analyze what happens when Oil goes back to $100 plus per barrel, and Qf is flying 15-20yr old 747s and A330s against its competition, who have a350s and 787s... (what’s the fuel burn per seat of a QF 744 vs a new SQ 787-10?).

What’s with this idea here and on Qrewroom of “accepting” the Jetconnect and network decisions? There is no “acceptance” needed. It is happening. AIPA does not have the option to not “accept”.

dragon man 16th Feb 2018 05:46


Originally Posted by Justin. Beaver (Post 10054643)
What’s with this idea here and on Qrewroom of “accepting” the Jetconnect and network decisions? There is no “acceptance” needed. It is happening. AIPA does not have the option to not “accept”.

You are correct however the pilots have the right to work to rule. The airline runs on our goodwill nothing else at the moment.

V-Jet 16th Feb 2018 06:11

Anyone who comments on the rolling catastrophe that once was a world beating airline and advertises their location as 'The Campus' either knows nothing about aircraft and airlines and is therefore incompetent at same, or has a sense of humour that would rival the irony in labeling Titanic as 'unsinkable'. I suspect the former - especially with a 'Justin Beaver' handle.

IF you do wish to understand airlines and understand just how silly your next love in with your HR 'co-workers' is, you should read (and more importantly understand) some of the highly insightful commentary by Rated De; Angry Rat; What The; neville nobody; Extra Shot; Blown Gasket and countless others here. Kool Aid is a wonderful product, but if you mainline it long enough it will seriously affect your health! What is so upsetting to people here is that lunacy created through overdosing Kool Aid is ruining a once iconic business and the livelihood of tens of thousands of innocent staff. Although Weeman is reducing that figure as fast as he can, it's still grossly unfair.

Surrounding yourself with yes-men when you are demonstrably incompetent has worked SO well for everyone from Nero, Hitler, Mugabe and even Kevin Rudd! So much undeserved adoration in one (campus) place simply beggars belief.

As an aside, has anyone noticed the pillorying 'Mr Real Estate' has got in the press lately? Wee man has a major gambling problem, a major (how can I say this best) 'accounting reporting addiction' and hasn't even made his own money. Why is he missing out on the publicity he so richly deserves??

SRFred 16th Feb 2018 06:22

Because the media is too busy having fun with Barnaby!

V-Jet 16th Feb 2018 06:27

The financial media, not the likes of News of the World:)

ExtraShot 16th Feb 2018 06:47


Originally Posted by neville_nobody (Post 10054620)
That there is the same spin that has been going on for some 20 years. Just change the names and aircraft types around Jetstar/National Jet/Jet Connect/Network etc

I remember a few years ago it was all doom & gloom sub $1 shares and look what happened. And the time before, and the time before that.

What you have to remember with any large corporations is that it is just a game moving assests/cash around to create whatever narrative you wish to dictate.


A fairly direct ‘threat’ (if you will) was made the other day to Short Haul Pilots (who don’t fly the 787), that either the current issues are resolved, or a Request to the board to order more new 787s in the coming months cannot/will not be made.

Letting options lapse is now being pinned on this Network/Jetconnect issue, and Short Haul Pilots.

I’m trying to point out that ordering more of these modern, fuel efficient aircraft is now imperative, no matter what is going on between Pilots and management, otherwise it won’t be long until we see those $1 shares again. It is a stupid threat to make, because it is not something they can be held to if they want future success for the airline.

Rated De 16th Feb 2018 07:11


I’m trying to point out that ordering more of these modern, fuel efficient aircraft is now imperative, no matter what is going on between Pilots and management, otherwise it won’t be long until we see those $1 shares again. It is a stupid threat to make, because it is not something they can be held to if they want future success for the airline.
Precisely.
To them as hammers every problem is a nail!
They will not change the HR/IR adversarial model unless it is forced onto them. The demographic shortage will over time weaken this model of employee relations.

In the interim:



They run a real risk that the narrative of 'transformation' could unwind. Their capital expenditure is lagging cyclically. This is precarious which is the point of the SMH article. Not replacing capital equipment juices the numbers, but you still have to do it. It would have been a far more efficient use of shareholder capital to re-fleet rather than buy back shares.


For pilots it must be distressing to watch these self anointed smartest men in the room, do more damage after the lock out and grounding in 2011.




If it is goodwill that holds it all together, simply withdrawing that by not complying, ignoring phone calls and the 'can you help us out' cries will be sufficient.



To hurt these fools, hurt them with the things they count. Goodwill to them is a given, so they don't bother counting it.Boy do they notice when it isn't there!..Just say NO is rather elementary. No I will not extend, NO i will not sign on early. Rather simple.


If what was written is correct, the $8 million dollar man Andrew David ought be able for that amount of money to work it all out!

CurtainTwitcher 16th Feb 2018 07:22

Point of order.

The Qantas 2017 Annual report page 38, shows Andrew David's total 2017 package, including share price growth at $3.890 million. Gareth Evans package was $8.182 million.

Carry on...

Justin. Beaver 16th Feb 2018 08:55

For all the hot air and braggadocio written here, none of you properly understand who you are dealing with and how they think. They aren’t afraid of work to rule or loss of good will. The union doesn’t seem to have any plan beyond holding a meeting. What happens after the meeting? I’m going to put my money on: not much. Why? Because there aren’t any realistic options available, even within the EBA process. FWA isn’t going to go scope clauses or the like and Qantas isn’t going to give you any. Why? Because then everyone else will want one.

But good luck to you.


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