Mt Agung Erupts
 

Ash cloud to FL150 moving S/SW. VA/QF/JQ diverting back to Aust.

At least an hour ago and nothing in the media.

More global warming on the way..:hmm:





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I wonder when the Indo carriers stop? Schedule before Safety for them I guess.

Last time it wasn't just the Indo carriers. Cathay, Singapore, all the Chinese, Qatar , KLM etc etc all kept flying except when the airspace/airport was closed (obviously).
I think its more the threat of having aircraft stuck there that deters the oz airlines, but it's better to play the safety card.

The airlines in that region can easily do a 180 and return to the departure airport if Bali closes. Airlines coming from Australia are looking at a diversion with hotel rooms, crew rest requirements and the aircraft being unavailable for 12 hours.

It's similar to fog in Sydney, a flight from Melbourne takes a bit extra fuel and tries to arrive as it clears. A flight from Los Angeles needs to reschedule to avoid a major knock on effect.

Not really, it trashes the engines.

The ash in the air turns to glass in the compbustion chamber and then accumulates on the blades and guide vanes south of there ... it also acts as an abrasive on the fan blades, causing excess wear.

I agree. Its not just a scheduling issue. The "cloud" can move quickly and if you end up near it there can be enormous damage to the airframe not just the engines.

I was on the last aircraft out of Manilla when the local volcano went off and as well as engine damage all the windscreens and a number of pax windows had to be replaced and the air conditioning system had to be stripped down.

The associated weather can also be extreme. The associated cloud system makes it impossible to see the cloud around you until it too late.
You know you are where you shouldn't be when St Elmos fire on the windscreen is orange and the smell is putrid in the cabin. By then its too late.

Wunwing

When the volcano was at the highest alert, 737's from Melbourne were making a fuel stop at Darwin, the alternates being too close to the volcano. Just read Mataram in Lombok is closed..

Similar example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_9

That wasn't what Metroman meant... ;)

No it wasn't what Metroman meant but he see it very simplistically as a short term scheduling matter. It can be, as in my case, a scheduling matter because the aircraft can be out of the system for an extended period well beyond a simple turn back.

I might add in addition to engineering repercussions, that I wouldn't recommend accidentally getting into the weather patterns that Volcanic eruptions can create. They are not fun.

Wunwing

As Jetstar has demonstrated once before.

Jetstar faces $20m ash cloud damage bill after Airbus flies into Ash

Apparently Agung is erupting now. Denpasar closed, ash on the ground..

Waiting for the big boom. She’ll blow herself to bits.

It’s going to leave the operators who have a large fleet exposure to the dps market very exposed.

I’m gathering this will go on for some time.

All about risk management, when it’s just the ash cloud Aussie Operators tend to err on the side of safety, as industry professionals we accept this. The problem is when Garuda and Air Asia launch pax go but why can’t you? They just don’t get it.

As for the Jetstar encounter mentioned above, yes that was a flight into unreported ash in the wee hours of the morning, expensive but lucky!

On the corporate jet side it’s no different some go some don’t.

Yes if Agung goes big it will really hurt Bali for sometime. Although no airline really depends on the market alone. Unlike what was the airline Air Pacific? A310s has 4 of them? Starting to really do well then the bombings......

Global,

Maybe you mean Air Paradise?

Yep that’s if, yes irrelevant but my point being no airline relies solely on Bali alone.

Ok Air Bali and the Caravans..... (and ��).

The last major eruption lasted for a year. Some flights may be able to operate day VFR with favourable winds and carefully planned routes but the effect on tourism will be devastating. It’s now peak season and the holiday plans for thousands of people have been disrupted, not forgetting the local population who are in evacuation centres.

Few people would book a holiday knowing their outbound flight may be cancelled at short notice or that they could be unable to return home without an extended delay. Destinations such as Fiji and NZ will become more attractive for Australians.

Plans are in place to get visitors out with buses and ferries to Surabaya, currently there are around 60 000 in Bali.

Hopefully the scale won’t be on the level of Mt Pinatubo which deposited ash 30cm deep in parts of the Philippines. A massive ash cloud drifting around the airways between Australia and Asia will require extensive and costly rerouting for airlines.

Hopefully the knowledge gained from the eruption of the volcano in Iceland in 2010 can be applied, Europe was basically grounded for five days. Whilst no commercial aircraft suffered any damage, ash was found in the engines of some military jets. That eruption sent ash into the jet stream which spread it over a wide area.

Ring of fire destroyed Rabaul in 94......

This volcano has been hot for a while, if it goes off bigtiime it wil be interesting to see where the ash ends up particularly given the onset of the monsoonal season. Heard yesterday that there is the possibility of a cyclone forming in the Indian Ocean south of Bali later this week.

An answer as I see it is firstly to stop taking the bogans to Bali until Gurung Agung settles down and in the meantime position a big aircraft, say B744 if QF can spare one, to DRW and when the VACC says it will be OK, depart DRW to arrive over DPS about 15 minutes after first light and, subject to the ash not being at DPS, two rotations can be done to DRW during daylight hours to get the bogans out to DRW. That should make a big dent in the problem.