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-   -   Will demographics kill IR? (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/593254-will-demographics-kill-ir.html)

dr dre 11th Apr 2017 03:27


Originally Posted by cessnapete (Post 9734959)
My UK airline puts 250ish hour cadet pilots into the RH seat of an A320 straight out of the Training Organisations. Obviously with mandatory defined supervisory route flying initially.
Previous years saw the same movement onto Trident, B737. B757/767 with no safety problems, and we don't employ Cruise Only co-pilots, all are trained for two pilot ops.
Its the training that counts not the hours. The USA FAA 1500 hr min, which could be instructing in a Cessna 150, is probably inferior!!

And it looks like VA are restarting their cadet program as well:

Virgin Australia Pilot Training at FTA | HOME

neville_nobody 11th Apr 2017 04:20


That is exactly the point of the post. It will be a supply side issue that drives the change, but it will change.

A pathway for pilots restores respect for the role they play in an airline, gives the airline some supply chain advantages and undoes decades of abuse by airline management with an focus on labour unit cost at the expense of all else
Whilst a sustainable way to run an airline and a win/win for all, unfortunately it will never happen.

Airlines in this part of the world seem pretty well obsessed with running multiple airlines within their own airline. There are various reasons for this and whilst it is very inefficient it seems to be their modus operandi. But it does provide more management roles than otherwise necessary so it must be a good idea.

As long as that concept is around there is NEVER EVER going to be a career path. You will be siphoned off providing no real career or options. Just the hope of a new type if you take a x% pay cut.

This is now also exacerbated by the ridiculous ATPL requirements put onto pilots which will also work in companies favour. You are basically beholden to them to upgrade your license and prevent FO's from going anywhere until they can get a command and hence their ATPL.

So if things start going bad for companies they will just turn to the large expatriate pilot workforce and flush out all the major overseas carriers.

Failing that they will then go to the government and get in foreign pilots.

After that point, if it ever comes, they will have a problem.

framer 11th Apr 2017 05:23


So if things start going bad for companies they will just turn to the large expatriate pilot workforce and flush out all the major overseas carriers.
Don't think that will work the aviation market keeps expanding as it has for the last 8 years. If the major overseas carriers are also feeling the pinch ( for Captains) they will have to provide the terms and conditions to maintain their workforce.

neville_nobody 11th Apr 2017 05:54

I'll be willing to bet that if QF bought some new iteration of a 777 and placed it on a wet leased outsourced crew arrangement, offering DE commands based in Australia, they would be inundated with type endorsed applications.

That is what you are dealing with. It would take some absolutely massive offers from overseas airlines to stop people leaving for that.

framer 11th Apr 2017 06:24

What about the same money, same city, but guaranteed two returns to Beijing per month plus a sim in Beijing every six months is all that's asked of you? Which would provide the best Australian lifestyle?

Tuck Mach 11th Apr 2017 08:05


I'll be willing to bet that if QF bought some new iteration of a 777 and placed it on a wet leased outsourced crew arrangement, offering DE commands based in Australia, they would be inundated with type endorsed applications.
Whilst I totally agree that IR would love to try it on how exactly could they do it?


Fair Work Act prohibits it
Contract prohibits it
Call the airline 'terminal' again?


They will play the same two card trick with the 737 replacement; the usual cry of 'A320 to be crewed by the Botswana second XI on food stamps or Jetstar (insert subsidiary) etc. However it would be really interesting to see the argument in court on a transfer of flying 'no disadvantage' Fair Work Act test. Will the pilots believe the sky is falling again?? :ugh:

Furthermore, the 777 would largely replace the existing LH fleets, so I would say go ahead and try it, it is an idle threat. Redundancy payments alone are staggering and for what purpose to deny a career path? There are plenty of career paths outside the group, Qantas is a spent force and idle rhetoric may not hold sway much longer

As framer correctly asserts, there is a tipping point and for many pilots a commuting contract is becoming an increasingly viable alternative to waiting for the formless ( don't spook the market) 50 aircraft Qantas order...

Justin. Beaver 11th Apr 2017 08:35


Originally Posted by Tuck Mach (Post 9735980)
Whilst I totally agree that IR would love to try it on how exactly could they do it?


Fair Work Act prohibits it
Contract prohibits it
Call the airline 'terminal' again?


They will play the same two card trick with the 737 replacement; the usual cry of 'A320 to be crewed by the Botswana second XI on food stamps or Jetstar (insert subsidiary) etc. However it would be really interesting to see the argument in court on a transfer of flying 'no disadvantage' Fair Work Act test. Will the pilots believe the sky is falling again?? :ugh:

Furthermore, the 777 would largely replace the existing LH fleets, so I would say go ahead and try it, it is an idle threat. Redundancy payments alone are staggering and for what purpose to deny a career path? There are plenty of career paths outside the group, Qantas is a spent force and idle rhetoric may not hold sway much longer

As framer correctly asserts, there is a tipping point and for many pilots a commuting contract is becoming an increasingly viable alternative to waiting for the formless ( don't spook the market) 50 aircraft Qantas order...


Do you have to make redundancy payments to pilots who choose to go and fly for another entity?

Arewegettingjets 11th Apr 2017 21:28

Demographics will kill IR.

Young people don't feel an emotional connection to the red roo anymore. The world has gotten a lot smaller in the last 20 years. Working abroad and not paying obscene amounts of tax in Australia is attractive to a large percentage of people. Then you take into account how expensive Australia is and how it is near impossible for a young person to buy in Sydney and the decision is basically made for you.

Asia is only 7 hours away. These commuting contracts will be a real worry for those who need to fill control seats here.

Money talks.

Tuck Mach 11th Apr 2017 22:16


Asia is only 7 hours away. These commuting contracts will be a real worry for those who need to fill control seats here.
Exactly, a state owned carrier needing pilots for purposes of actually running and building and airline will find the regulatory path smooth.Not all pilots will consider it, but look at it holistically and they have induced a strategic risk to their business entirely of their OWN making. New pilots need to be sourced, and trained, they tried to send 787 pilots to the UK and NZ as they do not have the capacity internally and the pilot workforce continues to age. What happens if Australia's Property Council Treasurer does something to Superannuation that induces 30 additional retirements? Am told the 737 system is bursting too!

Qantas has done this to itself. It is labour cost focused. It has been at internal war with itself since privatisation.

JQ was the Trojan horse, an IR nirvana, management fell over themselves to allegedly lower unit cost and whilst JQ has merit on limited scale, it has more aircraft than the parent, who despite management's best efforts refused to die. Have a look at the aircraft counts, ever wonder why they choose not to break out JQ International and JQ Domestic? They decided to tell the world in 2012 just how bad Qantas International was and report it as a separate segment.JQ International conveniently hidden, as are the funding structure for their so called minority investments in Asia.....

Little Alan did as ordered and gave it a big shake, achieving little beyond personal riches. Treating people as they do, pilots included was penny wise, but pound very foolish and demographics show them up: Qantas is simply a bigger fish in a small pond, there are increasingly broader horizons.

Denied a career path for the lost decade pilots are Qantas will be watching, as an observer am glad that the rhetoric will fade.

Rabbitwear 11th Apr 2017 22:18

Time to head off to the US , green card lottery or grab a wife , affordable housing ,the list goes on !

neville_nobody 12th Apr 2017 03:03

The commuting contracts to China are not going to be that appealing to anyone with school aged kids. For older Captains it's a good way to retire early. If you are in your early 40's with kids at school living overseas or commuting to Asia is not going to be as favourable as being based here. Personally I don't think that they will be that popular on the whole as their are alot of negatives for people who are looking at 10+ years to go in the industry. For younger FO's or SO's getting the actual experience to qualify for contracts is going to be hard here.


Whilst I totally agree that IR would love to try it on how exactly could they do it?
Fair Work Act prohibits it
Contract prohibits it
Call the airline 'terminal' again?
Without getting into a prolonged debate over IR legislation I would have thought that having National Jet, Jet Connect, QantasLink and Network Aviation already doing Red Tail flying what difference would a another entity make? If Boeing or Airbus came out with a ultra long haul aircraft which could do direct anywhere, I think QF will have the leverage in the negotiation. The threat of bringing home the expats would be enough to drive down the wages once again.

framer 12th Apr 2017 03:55


The commuting contracts to China are not going to be that appealing to anyone with school aged kids.
Having recently chatted to someone who has just left one of the major recruitment companies I am not so sure. Another bird flu, SARS, 9-11, GFC will change it all but if something like that doesn't come along.......

knobbycobby 12th Apr 2017 06:00

What a lot of pilots fail to understand is that the Jetconnects etc were established under Howard's Workchoices. This made it easier From an IR perspective to establish Jetconnect. As Geoff Dixon said AIPA did nothing when Jetconnect started anyway! It was only later a case was pursued. The worst Qantas managed was a couple of 737s flying between NZ and AUS.
They didn't manage to Crew the A330 or the A380 with offshore or different crews.
The Labour government then made even more restrictive rules under the Fair Work Act. The Fair work act still stands. Pilots don't know the difference so allow bar room or crew room chat to form an incorrect opinion.
Section 318 3(e) and 313 provide protections from this occurring. If you want to go to JQ you actually breach the FWA so have to sign a waiver that's time limited. That protection didn't exist under Workchoices.
There was a bulls$&@ rumour going around by many that Peter Wilson and others were trying to start a contract company for the 787. All False.
Friends who know Peter personally and have recently flown with HOFO have told them this was false. Captain Wilson was busy preparing to be the Chief Pilot and director of flight operations for Tiger. Good rumour but only a rumour.

The good thing for all pilots is the market is rising globally particularly in China where 25k USD net a month is the worst a CPT can do if sufficiently qualified.
Many QF 737 SH captains are getting up to 50k net per month. That's over $500,000 a year after tax.
With commuting contracts on the rise and the shortage growing it's only a good thing for all pilots.
What is certain and no matter what, you will get the same fools talking down their own profession, living in fear of phantom pilots just waiting to sign up for their jobs at an imaginary start up company that they heard about in a crew bar.
Getting their panties in a twist over a silly white hat or a marriage equality issue.
Never mind defending the hard fought protections to keep safe, healthy and able to execute a flying job till age 65.

Tuner 2 12th Apr 2017 06:19


Originally Posted by knobbycobby (Post 9737158)
.
Many QF 737 SH captains are getting up to 50k net per month. That's over $500,000 a year after tax.

To make $50,000 after tax you'd need to do about $80,000 pre-tax - or at about $300/hr, more than 250 credit hours per month. Either a new world record or wrong. $50k after tax might've been done by someone in that one month the 9 or 10% bonus was paid.

neville_nobody 12th Apr 2017 06:55


Section 318 3(e) and 313 provide protections from this occurring. If you want to go to JQ you actually breach the FWA so have to sign a waiver that's time limited. That protection didn't exist under Workchoices.
That only talks about 'transferring' of flying. If the flying doesn't exist and the current staff stay on the same routes on the same pay scale and QF open up direct everywhere with a subcontractor it will make for an interesting court case.

Network, Jetconnect and National Jet are already doing this and to an even greater degree than my proposal.

One thing such an endeavour would do is put some pressure on ME and Asian Airlines which may lead to some better deals for pilots.

Tuck Mach 12th Apr 2017 07:57


Network, Jetconnect and National Jet are already doing this
My time at Qantas a 'lost decade' too,

Neville: completely agree subsidiaries have already been set up creating group industrial leverage, but my point is to consider a paradigm shift.

IFF demographics are really biting
, then the 'Adversarial IR approach" which sets up greenfield operations to drive terms and conditions (in real terms) downwards has had its day.

I would respectfully suggest an attempt to circumvent the LH award (I agree management would love to try it-Joyce more than most) may actually been seen for what it is; circumventing FWA ratified contracts and undermining workplace conditions, something even a Freehills loaded FWA commission would struggle to approve.

Given Qantas' stubborn resistance to a Group Opportunity List, I consider their 'Group impact recruiting model' with respect to releasing pilots from Qantas Link et al to mainline, 'subject to operational requirements' a tacit admission that their play book is out of date.

As Keynes said:

'The difficulty lies not so much in creating new ideas, as in escaping from old ones

-John Maynard keynes

knobbycobby 12th Apr 2017 12:33

Tuner 2.

Apologise for not being more specific. Contract 737 CPTs working in China are earning between $25,000-$50,000 AFTER tax per month.
Domestic Captains in Australia no where near that despite their hourly rate being high. Not going into specifics here, however It's more than anyone makes in QF by a significant margin LH or SH.

Many Check and training Captains are leaving Emirates to work for different Chinese Carriers. Not only because of pay but due to being treated poorly and working too hard.
Crossing multiple time zones at night and wrong times of the day isn't good for you. The science is catching up with evidence of how dangerous it is for ones health, however you don't need to ask any Emirates pilot how bad it is at the rate they are doing. Most are above 900 hours and they look exhausted.
The quality of Airline in China varies however the pay rates are extremely favourable in LH ops, much of the flying is 4 pilot and the workload and FRMS in LH cases is considerably better than in EK and others. Commuting a huge bonus too.
What will make many Aussie pilots valuable will be the comparative high experience level. What is the average now to command in QF SH. 20 years to the East Coast for a 737? Just the reality of QF now.
As someone mentioned earlier the quality US Airlines are having to pay good money and bonuses. With lower taxes and cities that are significantly cheaper than Sydney/Melbourne. Shame a green card is so hard.
Think it's great to see pilot wages and contracts rise higher.
A rising tide should lift all boats. Sadly I think pilots are their own worst enemy.
You'll hear boogieman stories from a guy at a bar who heard Pete Wilsons(insert names) Aunty is starting a secret contract company with 457 visa workers, trained at the ready if pilots say no to any deal.

Tuck Mach 14th Apr 2017 01:02


The only demographic in play here is the spreadsheet loving, MBA waving, office dwellers. If they had any idea what they were doing, they may actually start running the airline from the front line back rather than the board room "down"
Very true Gordon.
The same swarms that tell pilots to work weekends, holidays and all the rest, are educated administrators generating not a dollar of revenue. They also are all enjoying a long weekend. How many LSL slots were available for my colleagues still there? Don't forget admin headcount have to be paid for from flying people and planes...

Joyce has created additional layers of bureaucracy not seen since Napoleonic times, whilst simultaneously shedding airframes and getting lucky with fuel prices :rolleyes:

On another note, not just here but alas another western economy showing a demographic problem:

Stop-Loss an Option for Air Force to Keep Departing Pilots

Captain Dart 14th Apr 2017 23:51

Could be worse. According to Flight magazine, Nigerian carrier Aero Contractors has an employee to aircraft ratio of 500:1.

Tuck Mach 15th Apr 2017 01:12

Thanks Captain Dart,

Qantas is getting up there in the 'back office negative efficiency stakes' Staff to aircraft ratio is on a tear to compete with Nigeria!

:ok:


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