Yep I think you're onto something GG.
The days of all being in Gulf Air (one carrier) won't return but I suspect some re-alignment to occur, even though they all want to beat their own drums it simply won't be feasible, having 3 actively expanding global carriers (plus 2 not so active) all hubbing within 300nm.

What I am about to post is completely "out of my arse thinking".
Emirates looks like a gigantic property play. The money isn't in the airline, but converting sand at "cents per acre" into "thousands per square foot" of hotels / retail / office / adventure parks. This process depends upon visitors to continue to support the growth of this process. How they get to Dubai is probably less important than the fact they need to pass through it for this scheme to work.

Ask yourself, who owns the airline, who owns the land, and who would benefit from the conversion process from cents to $$? It is all about the "network effect". The aim appears to be to generate sufficient activity in Dubai to reach a critical mass, so that it becomes valuable because everyone wants to have a holiday or do business in Dubai. Thus creating scarcity from abundance, precisely because they have limited oil & gas reserves.

Just a thought from afar, & I could be well be off the mark...

wouldnt be an EBA being negotiated would there???

WHilst I was very positive for the folk at VA when Borgs took over.....surely you should be seeing some better results by now.....a lot of money spent for not much gain?

Oh yeah, if any management tell you that Tiger wont be replacing you on any routes, dont believe them for a second. (Jetstar will never be more than 4 aircraft...) If my memory serves me correctly, some of the main players in the Jitconnict sham are now at VA......

What's the work environment like over there? A few buddies have said it was really good for a while, but everyone is getting pissed off again. A non flying mates wife is CC for VA, her reviews of the company are not glowing to say the least....lots of backstabbing and dobbing etc....please say it isnt so!!

Etihad just increased their Shareholding in VB oops sorry VA.

Tough times are ahead for both main players in this ever increasing unsettled environment. Only time will tell what happens next but I had a good mate tell me he is worried for his QF737 slot on the classic, as it looks like the B717 are coming to replace some of their flying (CB & SYD base) and he hasnt any idea what may lay ahead for him. Thats one way for QF to improve their bottom line using contractors. Probably same thing that may occur at VA in the future with the likes of Tiger and Skywest now available to be moulded how they like.

Those who predict consolidation in the ME do not understand the model and/or culture.

The joint venture of Gulf Air failed, in part, because Gulf States do not work well together. Everyone has the "my dick is bigger than yours" syndrome and have a burning need to be seen to be the biggest, fastest, tallest etc.

There will be no voluntary consolidation. Qatar and Abu Dhabi have all the money amongst the big 3 carriers, so there will be no short/near term financial pressure for either of those to merge with anyone. Dubai have the brand and the network, but are pretty thin on finances, relatively speaking. There is no way they will be able to buy out EY. Firstly they couldn't fund it and secondly, Abu Dhabi would simply not allow it. Further more, those familiar with the ME will know that the changing of the name of the Burj Dubai to the Burj Khalifa, sent a pretty clear message as to who is in charge.

Lastly, it doesn't matter how close their hubs are because it is not about bringing people to the ME. It is simply about moving masses of increasingly wealthy people from East to West and back. Given the massive numbers involved and the perfectly located geography of the ME, there is likely to be more ME based carrier rather than less, and that can be evidenced by the expansion of Turkish.

sorry for thread drift, but it is relevant to earlier posts

Don't QF drivers fly the -400 and -800 interchangeably?

I think he was getting at that if they lose any -400 flying and not many new -800's coming they will be overstocked. I will ask to clarify.

QF 737 pilots fly both the -400 & -800. There is no such thing as "QF737 slot on the classic."

The orders for the 738s cover the loss of the 734s. There are currently 12 734s and 59 738s (71 jets.) The last press release in Feb announced a further 5 738s, stating that the fleet will "ultimately grow to 75 738s"

Excess baggage, negative culture
 

Sometimes you bite the Tiger...

This time the Tiger will bite back. :(

Sad to say but, JB will need to write it off to save the ship.

Or was that always the plan??

Only 7 of the 734's left now.

Should be all gone by the end of the year.

Cull the 'excess baggage' working in HR plus remove The Tanned One's bonus and downsize his salary. That would be a good starting point.

Burrito, you say 'out of my arse thinking'? Don't stress about it, VA (VB) have been thinking out of their ass for years, nothing new in that! It's one of their 'must haves'!

Yeh good point V'excess.
Ethiopian have latched onto the mass movement principle too.

Share price only 0.35cents.
The big 3 Airline Alliances come under question now too I guess, as to their value... though VA now have by default, direct reaches into SkyTeam & Star Alliance with other Interline agreements with One World carriers.

The wicked witch from Werribee certainly 'aint helping the climate for travel!

I guess the difference is that I admit it, upfront no less!

Back in the late 90's and early 2000's when all the alliances were courting EK, Flanagan and Clark were adamant that EK did not need any alliance, and that the EK model would prevail. Sounded pretty arrogant at the time but now that EK is biggest on the block, it is starting to look like EK management were more visionary than most gave them credit

Anyone betting against the QF-EK tie up might come under a little bit of pressure. JB?

I left Virgin a few years back when it was a circus without direction. My partner still works there.

Borghetti has done wonders for the place, and it's clear the staff now actually have some pride in who they work for. The british clown has toned down and reduced his appearances, and those face-painting star-jumping clowns in the cabin have hit their mid 30s/40s, realised that snagging a pilot isn't likely/worthwhile and have either left or grown up.

Having flown for work a lot on QF, and a lot on VA for leisure - the comparison is becoming stark.

VA is doing very well compared to QF - the attitude of passengers says it all. The QF converts seem to be easily pleased at VA.

That said, VA seems to be a major basket case in other areas.
This month's inflight magazine says it all - almost like it's a badge of pride. Check out the fleet:

Fokker 50, ATR 72, Fokker 100, Embraer 190, 737-700, Airbus A320, 737-800, Airbus A330, 777-300.

Once you've worked out just what you're flying on (let alone exactly WHO), the next challenge involves finding out exactly what the inflight service actually involves:

Turns out it matters what seat you're in, what ambiguous booking class you have, what the heading is on the FO's indicator, what altitude you're at, what time of day, who the actual operator of your flight is (cause every-joe-blow knows that your 'Virgin Australia' flight could be infact operated by a myriad of other airlines/subsidiaries). Flying PER-BME? Are you on a F100 or an E190? Over 4hours? North South or East West? My most recent encounter was a bit like the cheese sketch from Monty Python.

Now you're on your way, what are you going to do during your flight. Well, you'll need your Jeppesen sized inflight magazine to determine whether you'll get Foxtel, Wifi, RedTv, or bugger all - before you determine if the movie 'Kenny' is showing on your flight!

The whole thing reeks of the worst years of Ansett when there was just no standardisation - and it pisses people off.

Before you lot at QF start feeling big (i've worked there too!), it's just as bad over there.

The winner will be the one who standardises their whole operation - QF almost did it a few years ago, but now that Virgin seem to be calling the shots service wise, they're both as dysfunctionally impulsive as each other.

WCH, well said. Then you have Flight Ops :ouch:

And then in the broader Qantas fleet you have:

717, A320, 737 classic and NG , Q200/300/400, F100, EMB120, B767 (RR & GE) A330 200/300, A380, 747-400 RR and GE + ER, 787 on the way......

VA are getting rid of the 50s and 100s in the near future and I'd say will consolidate with one regional type (EMB or Bombardier).

VA is Flying very well , from a passengers view.
 

Over the last few years I have been able to fly Business Class on both VA and QF. I travel every 2 months and after a couple of trips with QF decided to give VA a go.
What a difference , VA is streets ahead in my opinion and I have travelled a lot Internationally in Business Class and VA is right up there amongst them.
Sure the B737 is not all that flash but considering the room they have to provide Business Class in it's fairly good.
On the other hand the A330 is very good indeed . I really enjoy flying Business in that , the A330 is a beautiful aeroplane to travel in , it leaves the B767 for dead.
The share price drop is not that much different that of quite a few other Companies given this Economic Climate and under those Clowns who run this country or try to and succeed very badly.
I have watched VA grow over the years and I feel that they will go very well under the Leadership of John Borghetti.
Let's hope so for the sake of the travelling public and the staff of VA.
:ok::ok::ok::ok::ok:
P.S. I don't work for V.A , never have nor do any of my Family.

wch. All I can say is…:D:D:D