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QANTAS- On Market Takeover Offer
I'm going to make a prediction here; "someone" is going to launch an on market takeover offer for Qantas, most probably within hours of the release of the company's report today.
I base this on the sudden jump in the share price on 23rd August which looks to me as if people got interested in the stock around 3.00pm, enough to add about Seven cents to the share price. I predict that the Company will produce a disappointing result, do its best to spread more doom and gloom, talk about "difficult market conditions", "unfair competition from the Middle East", etc. et. etc. The so called bright spot will be the announcement of its intentions to start a premium brand carrier in Asia, and further expand Jetstar, both of which would appear to thinking members of the public to be as attractive a strategy as the kiss of death. Members of the aviation community will castigate Qantas management as inept. ..Then the predator will strike, only this time he isn't paying $5.10....... The money will be borrowed, most probably from America where interest rates are around zero, and the bid will be struck at maybe (guess) $2.00. The predator gets control, stops the Asia push, rolls jetstar into Qantas, buys or leases B777, does all the other stuff they were going to do if the APA bid succeeded and laugh all the way to the bank. This is pure speculation on my part, but I have no other answer to the question; "If the underlying value of QANTAS was at least $5.10 in 2008, why is it only $1.50 or so now? How did it get that way, especially since the Australian economy has not been knocked around by the GFC ?" |
Seems the Federal Govt suspect the same thing and have indicated they WILL NOT support a private equity bid and will exercise all powers available to stop it.
About time there was some action from Canberra on this debacle and hope that ASIC are getting ready as well (but I doubt it). |
Sunfish did you have this prediction before or after reading news bulletins of the last 12 hours;)
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Whenever a "big announcement" is about to be made (this was forecast months ago) the market always reacts on the eve. Never been any different Sunny!;)
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Just been following the share price.
Everything has already been disclosed in Pprune already:ok: |
If a bid appears, would there be shareholders who might think that the airline is being knocked down at bargain rates? Might they perhaps launch court action to get a look at the books? Just asking.....
Andrew Sisson, schoolmate, are you watching? Were you in DeCrespignys year? |
I have been telling people to buy QAN shares. Market Cap is only $ 3.4 B. If every QF employee bought $45000 worth of shares we would have total control of the company with majority control. I know it wont happen. But the reality is there's enough employees and genuine Australian's that would want to save Qantas. Oh well, wait for the :mad: to hit the fan
I suspect that they are deliberately keeping the share price low. The fact that there has been an almost doubling in profit and still no dividend makes me think that they dont want people buying the shares |
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Thoughts everyone??? |
Of course. The company has been downgrading earnings, profit, draining money to other areas of the business.
Makes the sale to an Asian Carrier to "tie in" the business and promote growth with in Qantas. Just a matter of time. |
Takeover is too obvious - they'll probably just strip value out with leasing deals...
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sound asleep, control doesn't need to be 51%. Think newcorp & the Murdoch's - the family only control around 14% of the shares, yet they exert total control over the company.
For takeover control, a block needs 10% + 1 share (90% allows compulsory acquisition). Given that many employees already have shares, this number could be as low as $5000 to gain a blocking stake. It could be a very interesting day. The pilots & engineers have not played their assigned roles in this pantomime. They were assigned the roll of the "airline wrecker", to down tools & cause immense & terminal damage to the longhaul brand, thus lowering the shareprice significantly. This would of course allow raiders to pick up the carcass for pennies on the dollars. This is all about exploiting, and widening the gap between price & value. Why would a former CEO & CFO be interested in the operation? Because they understand this pricing/value differential. |
breakfastburrito - we are on the same track. We need people to stop paying into super and start buying QAN shares. This is the only way to take control of these pigs with mouths in the trough
About time all the unions started pushing people into buying shares |
Beginning of The Endgame
Today will more than likely be the beginning of the endgame for Qantas.
Hedge funds,annual report,forensic accounting,industrial disputes,legal action,spin and yesterdays late jump in share price.All parts of the puzzle. When the dust settles and the deceptions have been exposed who will be held accountable? |
Accountable??? No one, they will be firmly enscounced in their multimillion dollar payouts eating caviar on the balcony laughing all the way to the bank.
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Joyce is a pawn, and he'll take the fall.
He will be rotting in a slammer after the citizens of this great country scream enough. From all accounts, he won't mind picking up the soap either :hmm: Australians are sick of this government, sick of corporate bullies, and sick of multi million dollar CEO remuneration packages. Labor will latch on to Qantas to appear to be doing something and to take the heat off them with the bad policy decisions. Gillard will use it as a way to make a comeback in the polls and to prove she still holds her labor roots. Watch this space. |
And if that's what it takes to save Qantas bring it on. Never fear, this government will be popular for only so long until the next insulation/school building/carbon tax/asylum seeker issue comes along.
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Maybe Elizabeth Knight has been reading PPRUNE:}
Time is ripe for a Qantas bid Time is ripe for a Qantas bid August 24, 2011 - 12:06PM The rumour that Qantas is being eyed as an acquisition target by private equity funds gained root yesterday afternoon because the environment is fertile for just such a move. That doesn’t mean the rumour is right - despite several hours of investigation yesterday no one seemed to be able verify that it had any substance. However it can’t be seriously dismissed because it is all too plausible. There is plenty of value to unlock in Qantas while it is trading at these levels - particularly if you split the airline into its brands - Qantas, Jetstar and Frequent Flyers. Advertisement: Story continues below All the analysts understand it is trading below its value - and have had buy recommendations on the stock for weeks. But large and small investors alike ignore all this because they perceive it has more downside - if or when the industrial action from pilots and/or engineers eventuates. The investors are probably right. Historically industrial action that has seriously affected airline schedules has had a very negative impact on the share price. With each time Joyce makes a public appearance he further cements this preparedness to stay in the trenches opposite his unhappy work force rather can capitulate to what he considers to be an unrealistic set of demands. Qantas is now fully committed to a growth strategy that involves setting up new airlines in Asia and shedding 1000 staff to suit the new slimline Qantas brand. This is despite the reasonably strong earnings for the year it released yesterday. The workforce will seize on the solid result to argue that the airline does not need to cut labour costs and relocate capital to cheaper geographies. Joyce will be hoping the positive result consolidates his position as the company's leader and fortifies his credentials to deliver on the new strategy. Some of today’s early share price gains - however - will be the lingering hope from investors that the shadowy talk of takeover might contain some grain of truth. Certainly the time is ripe. Once Joyce goes on a spending spree to equip his two fledgling airlines it loses its appeal to the buy-in-gear up-refloat private equity brigade. Read more: Time is ripe for a Qantas bid |
Sunfish , or should I say Victor the predictor , you need to stay of that cheap cask wine its doing you no good . Whats you next insight ?
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GAAM, Fly Lease
Now to some fancy flying by a stellar cast of local investors who have been the force behind the country’s second-biggest aircraft leasing business Global Aviation Asset Management and have now managed to sell it to US-listed FLY Leasing for $US1.4 billion. FLY is the former Babcock and Brown aviation leasing business and boasts former B&B execs Trevor Lowensohn and Phil Brown as its advisors. The merry cast at GAAM cashing in on the deal include former Qantas boss Geoff Dixon, his former CFO and former Leighton CFO Peter Gregg, former Allco boss David Coe, John Singleton and private equity investor Mark Carnegie. This team is now looking at multiple investment opportunities and Dixon has told The Australian Financial Review that they are looking to put together a bid to take over the management of the $6 billion portfolio of RBS Aviation Capital, the fourth-largest aviation leasing company in the world. |
Green Goblin - that was kinda inappropriate
Keep the soap, other people's children, wives, significant others, blah blah out of the condo - just muddies the waters and makes you sound silly. Who Joyce plays with has no bearing on the state of Qantas right now - sheesh!:ugh:
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Government Intervention
The noises from Canberra may stymie any takeover....or at least give room for second thoughts.It is an attractive proposition for a group who is cashed up.Plenty of value to unlock and $3bill cash reserves...very attractive
Maybe its not over yet |
The noises from Canberra may stymie any takeover....or at least give room for second thoughts The suits doing the takeover have better legal advice and are motivated by greed. |
People who follow what is happening in the United States at present would know that a new class of robber barons, based in Wall Street, are flexing their muscles. You should be aware that they have admirers in Australia.
Be aware that interest rates are near zero in America - why even the wife of the head of Morgan Stanley suddenly found herself with $200 million in taxpayer funds she then used to buy debt and start a business. Fancy that! You can just be a normal housewife and the government will help you start your own investment fund! The Real Housewives Of Wall Street: Christy Mack And Susan Karches Took TALF Loans Given the near zero American interest rates and the high moral purpose of American investment bankers, it is not too great a stretch to believe that there might be a few willing Australians for an American to teach, and a suitably charitable target for their attentions might be the long suffering shareholders in Qantas. ..Especially if the airline continues to be managed in a manner that I fail to understand. Why would any Western business want to start up a premium airline in Asia? That would be the equivalent of a Russian magnate announcing that he was going to start a full service airline in Australia - based on the idea that "superior Russian airline experience" was his competitive advantage. Why are the employees of Qantas continually treated like dirt? Why is Jetstar allowed to cannibalize Qantas market share? Why is Jetstar allowed to act as a parasite on the Qantas host? I would have thought that a thinking entrepreneur could take this lot over and do much, much better. I keep seeing the mental image of the monkey trap. The monkey has his hand around the food in the jar and won't let go... |
On August 25th The Australian Editor wrote
Private Equity owners could fillet the Flying Kangaroo ..............any significant ownership change must be subject to a strict national interest test. Trick is; Can Qantas Employees with 26% ownership and Foreign P.E. Owners with 49% ownership agree plans that will Keep Qantas Australian? Personally I think they can. A business plan based primarily on fleet renewal, job security, and a wage freeze is probably enough to pull together a strategy that Australia will support. If you work for Qantas and like the idea of: · Taking a financial stake in your employer, · Truly participating in the Company you work for, and · Protecting Australian based jobs. Suggest you tell your Manager & your Union to - 'Go for It'. For more information about why it can work for you, visit: www.aeoa.org.au |
My personal feeling is that there is not as much money in operating aeroplanes as there is in leasing them. You get paid regardless of any loss they make whenever they fly.
I wonder who stands to win from leasing 100 A320s to Qantas? Must be some good coin in that little venture. Far more than a handful of 777s or a 747 fleet that was already owned. Lets not forget of course the A380s which were being purchased outright. No money in leasing the airframes there either........ Something stinks! |
QF does not look like a takeover target to me at current prices with so many storm clouds on the financial horizon.
The latest Balance Sheet shows the following. Total Current Assets $5.641B Current Liabilities $6.235B Debt/Equity Ratio 98.1% Return on Capital 4.0% Net Profit Margin 1.8% |
"So our shareholders and other investors would be better off putting the money in the bank, because that doesn't give you sufficient returns."
So who is trashing the brand and company again? Qantas chief says shareholders 'better off in the bank' - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) |
The quote below comes from the article above.
"With the share price trading below the value of its assets in a liquidation, provided there was a way around the Qantas Sale Act - and a remember takeover bid has previously been made for Qantas at over $5, so if there was a way around the Qantas Sale Act, and I suspect there is - and a hub could be launched in Asia, then a discount to net tangible assets it might be just enough to tempt them [private equity or another airline] to make a bid for the company," he added. Takeouts from Roger's quote are:
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