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Foie gras 23rd Sep 2011 18:44

On the eve of a financial meltdown.
 
One bird to another.
My excuse is that I'm a goose.
Been force fed all this b/s for years.
Wiser now but the ole liver is stuffed.

So you're a big bird.
Surely a turkey!
Good luck, you're going to be hung strung and quartered.

bulstrode 24th Sep 2011 01:43

Like The Phoenix Rising
 
When the dust eventually clears the world economic system will be more robust and most likley more regulated since the banks can't be trusted to manage their own affairs with integrity.The obscene bonuses paid will hopefelly be a blot on histoys time line.
In the mean time buying opportunities abound.Prices on just about everything are falling.Unfortunately short term pain in the form of rising unemployment will hurt some economies.
Life goes on~groceries need to be bought,cars repaired,fuel bought and then we begin all over again.When the memory of this lesson learnt dims a future generation of financial hostshots will make the same mistakes all over again.Greed and overconfidence assign humanity to the curse of the financial crisis ground hog day.
Aviation is held hostage to the same deja vu

Capn Bloggs 24th Sep 2011 09:21

I've been following this thread with interest (pardon the...). One of the glaring conclusions is that gold (and a gun) is the go. Could you gold pundits comment, then, on this article:

What is wrong with gold?

$6500 in 12 months verses $68? :confused:

onetrack 24th Sep 2011 13:38

Capn Bloggs - What is wrong with gold, is that 600 economists world-wide are telling the world that gold is a useless, barbaric relic, and of no use in any modern monetary system.
Unfortunately 6,000,000,000 people disagree with those economists, and continue to buy gold, and see gold for what is - a store of value, no matter what the economists may say, or what the treasury depts do.

I find it interesting that your linked article makes no mention whatsoever of the gold holdings, and the love of gold, by the Chinese and the Indians.
Both those countries form 1/3rd of the worlds population, and both of those countries are presently buying gold on a big scale.
To omit those countries, and their gold figures, from ones story and figures, leads one to believe that the gold story was written by an economist, for the benefit of other economists.

There's no way in the world that every gold-holding country in the world would dump their entire gold stocks on the open market in one go. Only the foolish countries dispose of any substantial amount of their gold holdings.
The shrewd countries such as China buy gold to keep value in their wealth, when that wealth is threatened by a declining value in any monetary (fiat) currencies they hold.

The US$ shows signs of rapidly becoming the US Lira, as billions of US$'s are printed daily with no asset backing to match. Thus, the shrewd Chinese are exchanging their US$'s for gold, while the US$ still has some buying power.
Gold is one of the worlds unique metals, in that is exceptionally rare (in comparison to base metals)... it has a historically unique position in the financial operations of any country in history... and its wealth-retention abilities are recognised and revered world-wide... and it has always been that way. Nothing that I, and 5,999,999,999 other people, can see, will ever change that fact.

Baileys 24th Sep 2011 14:42

Bubble.

Just like tulips....and Aussie house prices. Those that are in on the bubbles would strongly disagree. Just watch and see over the next few years.

Foie gras 24th Sep 2011 16:13

The swiss franc, was regarded as being a safe hedge.
Look what happened there.

Gold is fine, provided it is not confiscated by the government, as was done by the Roosevelt Government.
Presidential Executive Order no. 6102.
5th April, 1933.

You've got to come up with some better ideas!

flying lid 24th Sep 2011 19:51


I find it interesting that your linked article makes no mention whatsoever of the gold holdings, and the love of gold, by the Chinese and the Indians.
Both those countries form 1/3rd of the worlds population, and both of those countries are presently buying gold on a big scale.
Too true. A few weeks ago, changing planes at Dubai, 0100 local time, the airport gold shops where crowded with Indians buying gold. A frenzy the like of I've never seen before. Thought it quite amusing at the time.

Difficult to predict the future, short, medium or long term with stocks, gold, cash, etc. Have some of everything is about the best I can come up with. Diversify your assets.

One thing is for sure, the top 0.00005 % of the worlds population, the super rich, WILL profit and get richer. They will make it so, at your expense, and mine.

Lid

ga_trojan 24th Sep 2011 23:22

I wouldn't necessarily trust anything economist from the IMF or UN are saying about anything at the moment as 1. they don't really know anyway, and 2. they may have ulterior motives.

There is obviously some sort of value in gold if central banks are loading up on it. South Korea bought 25 tonnes in a purchase two months ago.

So if professional money mangers who are running countries are buying gold why would economists then suggest that average joes at least have a small Gold holding? Given that money is so volatile at the moment, and the chance that the Euro could sink and the greenback will be under some serious pressure in 2012 why wouldn't you hold at least a small proportions of your savings in gold?

Central banks return as gold buyers - FT.com

Emerging central banks boost gold holdings in July

Gnadenburg 25th Sep 2011 02:00


Bubble.

Just like tulips....and Aussie house prices. Those that are in on the bubbles would strongly disagree. Just watch and see over the next few years.
Australian house prices will come off but considering the rises in the last decade you would have to expect it. How much will they come off their highs? I don't think it will be as bad as many doomsayers like to predict.

High interest rates can come off and cushion a disorderly adjustment of Australian housing prices- and I believe the RBA will do this as anything disorderly will seize up consumer confidence and affect the wider economy adversely.

The $AUD will come off quickly in the above scenario and there is a lot of money abroad waiting to move into Australian property.

Foie gras 25th Sep 2011 06:38

http://brontecapital.********.com/2011/0....

Models for a Greek Sovereign Default
I am on a plane - long-haul over the Pacific - and someone asked me to spell out what I thought would happen with a Greek sovereign default. As this is drafted on a plane it is designed to outline extreme views (you know the ones after two glasses of wine). If people want to explore more modest views that is for the comments. Still all options look bad.

I see two broad variants - both of course stick most of the losses on Germany and France. Some variants are totally disastrous.

Variant 1 - the Argentine option: Default and de-peg the currency.

When Argentina defaulted not only did the government default but they forced a private default. If you had a debt in US Dollars in Argentina prior to the default you were forced to pay it back in Peso. Indeed it was illegal to make payment in US dollars.

Likewise if you had a US dollar asset you got back Peso. A dollar deposit in Citigroup in Buenos Aires became a peso deposit. If you really wanted to keep your dollars you needed to make your Citigroup deposit in New York.


The forced private sector default was necessary for Argentina. The Argentine banks all had lots of US dollar funding. If you devalued without forcing their default then they would all have uncontrolled defaults (a true disaster) and the country would lose its institutions. Telefonica Argentina would have failed too - failing to replay USD debts.

The same applies in Greece. If the Greek Government were to devalue the new Drachma (to perhaps a third the value of the Euro) then the banks (which are loaded with Greek Sovereign paper) would default. Even Hellenic Telecom would default because they would be forced to repay their billions of Euro borrowings whilst collecting only Drachma phone bills.

The Argentine economy was doing quite nicely after the devaluation. The lesson was that devaluation worked - provided you simultaneously forced private sector default.

If you were Greece you would take this option without hesitation.

However this option has explosive implications for Europe. You see a bank deposit in Athens is going to turn your Euros into Drachma. Overnight it will lose 70 percent of its valuation.

So it has to be done quickly and with an element of surprise (as per Argentina when most people did not get their dollars over the border). Without surprise people will rush their money to Deutsche Bank in Munich.

One weekend we will just find that the Greeks have done it.

But now suppose Greece does pull this trick. The day after we have a Drachma - deposits are in Drachma. We might print a single 10 drachma note and allow it to settle against the Euro - then over time print more. This should work for Greece.

Now if you are Irish or Italian or Portuguese (or even Spanish) you know the rules. You get to get your Euro out of the PIGS and into the core (Germany) as fast as possible. So max all your credit cards (for cash), draw all your bank deposits and load them in the boot of your car and make the drive to Switzerland or Germany. Somewhere safe. Otherwise you are going to lose half the value the day that the rest of the PIGS do a Greece.

And this bank run – a run including tens of thousands of Italians driving their Fiats - will surely blow apart every Italian bank. And their Euro-skeloritic compatriots will sign the death knell for for all their banks too.

If you are going to go the devaluation route you are going to have to do it all at once. Like the big-bank weekend (maybe coinciding with a week long bank holiday) in which all core European countries get their own currency back.

There is a precedent. It is not a pretty one. When the Austro-Hungarian empire collapsed there was a single currency over a huge area covering much of what is now Euroland. In this case the rather Germanic Austrians were in charge (or rather were in charge until their empire collapsed).

What they did was put troops on all the borders and made it illegal to take cash (or wire cash!) across borders. Then all Austro-Marks in each country was stamped - converted to Drachma for Greece, Marks for Germany, Peseta for Spain or whatever the currencies of the day were [If someone remembers the 1918 border splits better than me they are welcome to say...]

In this conception all Spanish debts become Peseta debts. All German debts become Mark debts. All Greek debts become Drachma debts. Unstamped currency goes worthless.

If you are going to split the currency I see no alternative to a big bang - and if you do that I see no alternative to troops at the border stopping transfers (and wire transfers) because shifting cash North looks so profitable against a sudden devaluation. Suddenly – and against all historic hope – its time again to guard the French-German (and every other European border) with troops for a week whilst the money is stamped.

Note however almost every country borrowed in hard currency (Marks) and got to repay in soft currency (Drachma). This is a scheme which shifts the loss home to Germany and with little compensating benefit except that they get their beloved Mark back. Its a scheme that is way better for the periphery because they get to keep their institutions. In two years they should bounce back like Argentina bounced back after their default.

Unilateral Greek default and devaluation without planning for the periphery to do the same - well that is a true mess. Too ugly almost to think about - and it would be unilateral for less than a week. The rest of Europe falls into that abyss with maximum movement of deposits and cash in the meantime.

The second variant on Greek default. Greece defaults and stays in the Euro

The second variant on Greek default is the one that Germany prefers – Greece defaults and stays on the Euro. (Credit Agricole also prefers this.*)

In the second variant Greece has a huge problem after the default - which is that its banks are insolvent. They own a whole lot of Greek Paper. Moreover Hellenic Telecom does not look that great either.

The recession goes from bad to worse and the government deficit goes from bad to worse. The Germans wind up owning the banks and the telephone company as partial offset to their losses lending to them. The Greek Institutions are captured by the Germans. (All your base are belong to us.)

They also wind up getting paid a little more as Greek austerity - as long as it lasts and that might be a long time - partially reduces German losses but at huge social costs.

The Eurozone becomes really dysfunctional - with the whole periphery totally unable to work their way out and having lost all their key institutions to the Germans who neither know how to run them nor really want them.

Moreover Greece stays expensive and unproductive and becomes more socially fractious. The likelihood of them staying the the Eurozone would be pretty low. (After all what have the Germans ever done for me!)

Europe would be held together by a massive and compulsory German aid budget. If they can't get that agreed on on day dot (and Merkel and the German constitutional court are not of that mind) then my guess is that is is in Greece's interest to go the Argentine route and let the rest of Europe fend for themselves.

And for that Europe will need troops on borders. Armed and dangerous.

Bring out the guns.

gobbledock 25th Sep 2011 06:57


I've been following this thread with interest (pardon the...). One of the glaring conclusions is that gold (and a gun) is the go. Could you gold pundits comment, then, on this article:
What is wrong with gold?
Gold can't be copied, gold is real, paper money if fiat. Paper is printed off a machine. The more they print means the higher inflation rises and the more you pay for electricity/gas/bread/everything. It is cyclic and tweaked/controlled by a countries economosits. Problem is when debt exceeds income, hence the USA dilemma, tonnes of money is going out of one hand and little is coming in through the other hand.
Both the USA and Europe are finished, simple as that. Neither can pay off their debts.

People keep asking 'why are the politicians sitting on this and doing nothing' ? Ha! What can they do? The game is up thats why they can't fix it, it is unfixable and the point of no return has been exceeded.
If you want to really know where it will all end, research German economy 1920-1923 and you will see the answer, propserity one day and hyperinflation and bankrupt the next. The same fate awaits the USD and probably the Euro. The Germans are the only ones with money and even that is not enough to dig their neighbors out of this hole.
The USD currency will be scrapped and a new one introduced, with the Germans that still didn't resolve all their issues, but what they did mirrors what the USA will have to do. China already know it, they know that America's merely printing off more money is feeding the inevitable default, in fact last week the Chinese actually came out and said it, that 'America was going to default by stealth'. Printing more money is a desperate measure and only putting off the inevitable conclusion, they will default and when they do it will be a global pandemic, plus the Chinese won't be too happy about losing the $2.3 trillion the Yanks owe them..Do your research friends.

Captain Gidday 25th Sep 2011 07:18

IT'S A RECESSION. SO WHAT?
 
Balstrode has it right:

Life goes on~groceries need to be bought,cars repaired,fuel bought and then we begin all over again.
Look, the last recession in Australia began in 1991, so it is obvious that anyone younger than about 35 could not have been in the workforce back then. And interestingly, most screen jockeys at financial trading houses would be younger than 35, so probably would have no personal experience of a recession. They are basing their decisions on a fear of the unknown. Buying US Treasuries as a 'safe haven'. Is that logical? Is it a herd thing?

Let us say economic activity in Australia declines by 3% year on year next year. That means that 97% of economic activity continues unchanged. You'll hardly see any change in traffic in your local Woolies or at your Shell station. In fact, because the price of fuel most likely will fall steeply, fuel sales by volume might increase. Generally, the wild consumption of resources and manufactured goods will decline a bit. Overall, pollution will reduce a bit, the amount of junk going to landfill might reduce a bit. Is any of that necessarily bad?

Some job descriptions are more vulnerable to recession than others. For example, if you are an architect or a real estate agent, expect some very quiet times as new construction dries up and house sales drop. [That's already happening]. Ditto for builders - get a job building infrastrucure. And ditto for merchant bankers, as it happens.

In general terms, in case you are unlucky and become one of the additional 5% or so of the workforce [not the population] who will join the ranks of the unemployed you should already be:
Building up your cash reserves.
Getting in front on your mortgage repayments.
Reducing other forms of debt as much as possible.
If you are leveraged [big mortgage or geared into shares, for example] you may be about to feel the pain. And it will hurt. Sorry, you might lose your house, if you lose your income. Hope your conservative Mum and Dad will find room for you at their place.
So what happens to pilots? Generally, if past recessions are any guide [and they are the only guide we have], not a lot happens in fact. Most passengers stay in work, so most flying continues. People tend to go on holidays to closer destinations, like the Gold Coast, Fiji or Bali. Good for you if those destinations are on your roster and your company is fleet of foot to exploit the new demand. Not so good for longhaul, but as the AUD declines, inbound tourism picks up.

Recessions weed out weak or poorly managed companies in all industries. I think Australia has one major airline group in each of those categories, so that could be a wild card.

Where are the safe jobs to weather the storm? Well, stacking shelves at Woolies is obvious. Working for a utility [driving a tram, bus or train, reading water meters] another fairly safe haven.

Most of all: you won't need a gun [except to shoot rabbits, maybe] , you won't need gold. Even in the Great Depression, the fabric of society did not unravel. In fact, it was quite common for people to start helping strangers. The closest thing we have in modern times to give you the idea is the outbreak of community spirit in New York after 9/11. Did I see someone mention cannibalism earlier on this thread? Not going to happen.

If you are too young for your parents to have told you from their personal experience about the 1930s then watch these three video clips. In the first clip the woman is in fact describing general daily life for women in the 1930s, with or without a Depression, in my opinion. My mother and grandmother were still working much like this when I was growing up in the 1950s, except that electricity had by then arrived. Look closely at the other two clips. Does anyone look malnourished? Do you see Mad Max in the background, plundering and pillaging?

Don't underestimate the power of people to overcome advertisity and hard times. A little off topic, but read Henry Lawson's poem 'On the Wallaby'. Send a copy to Leigh and Alan. They'll appreciate the heads up. Google 'on the wallaby' if you don't know what the expression means.

Fliegenmong 25th Sep 2011 07:31

Onetrack mentioned -

"Only the foolish countries dispose of any substantial amount of their gold holdings."

Like this clown!

Worth its weight in gold - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

In November 1997 the then Treasurer, Peter Costello, shocked some people when he announced he'd signed off on the sale of $2 billion worth of Australian bullion. On the day he announced the sale the price was around $US306.00 an ounce. At the time, according to Mr Costello, gold "no longer plays a significant role in the international financial system

Sure Swan is a goose........but Costello certainly wasn't any better

breakfastburrito 25th Sep 2011 09:28

Captain Gidday, I admire your optimism, but the maths of this article "sealed the deal" for me when I read it in March 2010. Read the article carefully (re-read if necessary it to get your head around it) and think about what he is driving at. The implications are profound.



SATURDAY, MARCH 20, 2010
THE Most Important Chart of the CENTURY

The latest U.S. Treasury Z1 Flow of Funds report was released on March 11, 2010, bringing the data current through the end of 2009. What follows is the most important chart of your lifetime. It relegates almost all modern economists and economic theory to the dustbin of history. Any economic theory, formula, or relationship that does not consider this non-linear relationship of DEBT and phase transition is destined to fail.


It explains the "jobless" recoveries of the past and how each recent economic cycle produces higher money figures, yet lower employment. It explains why we are seeing debt driven events that circle the globe. It explains the psychological uneasiness that underpins this point in history, the elephant in the room that nobody sees or can describe.


http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/4...oductivity.jpg


This is a very simple chart. It takes the change in GDP and divides it by the change in Debt. What it shows is how much productivity is gained by infusing $1 of debt into our debt backed money system.


Back in the early 1960s a dollar of new debt added almost a dollar to the nation’s output of goods and services. As more debt enters the system the productivity gained by new debt diminishes. This produced a path that was following a diminishing line targeting ZERO in the year 2015. This meant that we could expect that each new dollar of debt added in the year 2015 would add NOTHING to our productivity.


Then a funny thing happened along the way. Macroeconomic DEBT SATURATION occurred causing a phase transition with our debt relationship. This is because total income can no longer support total debt. In the third quarter of 2009 each dollar of debt added produced NEGATIVE 15 cents of productivity, and at the end of 2009, each dollar of new debt now SUBTRACTS 45 cents from GDP!


This is mathematical PROOF that debt saturation has occurred. Continuing to add debt into a saturated system, where all money is debt, leads only to future defaults and to higher unemployment.


This is the dilemma created by our top down debt backed money structure. Because all money is backed by a liability, and carries interest, it guarantees mathematically that there will be losers and that the system will eventually reach the natural limits, the ability of incomes to service debt.


The data for the diminishing productivity of debt chart comes from the U.S. Treasury’s latest Z1 data, the complete report is posted below: [NOT SHOWN see original article BreakfastBurrito]


On page two of that report is the following table showing the Growth of Non Financial Debt:

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/4...ancialdebt.jpg


I included Financial debt onto the end of the table, that data comes from page 14 of the Z1 report.

This table makes clear what is happening. Business, household, and financial debt is trying to cleanse itself, to bring the level of debt back within the ability of incomes to support it. Our governments, armed with people who cannot explain the common sense behind debt saturation, are attempting to compensate by producing prolific amounts of Governmental debt.

They feel they must do this because if they do not, then debt and money – since debt backs our money – would both decrease and that would cause the economy to slow. But by adding money, and debt, they have created a sovereign issue where our nation’s income cannot possibly service our nation’s debt. In just the month of February, for example, our nation took in $107 billion, but spent $328 billion, a $221 billion shortfall. That one month shortfall exceeds all the combined shortfalls of the entire Nixon Administration – one month.

This is like an individual earning $5,000 but spending $15,000 a month. Would you lend your money to such an individual?

Last year we spent just under $400 billion on interest on our current debt, plus we spend another $1.5 Trillion buying down rates via Freddie, Fannie, and Quantitative Easing. That’s $1.9 Trillion spent on interest, most of which wound up in the hands of the central banks and their surrogates. Compared to our $2.2 Trillion in income, interest expense last year nearly took it all. That means that nearly all your productive effort used to pay Federal taxes last year were transferred to the central banks.

Modern monetary theory does not understand, nor does it correctly describe the debt backed money world in which we live. Velocity, for example, slows as debt saturation occurs. This is only common sense, and yet the formulas do not account for the bad math of debt, nor its non linear function. Velocity is blamed partially on the psychology of “consumers.” What nonsense. It is as mechanical as the engine in your car, it was designed that way. Once people, businesses, and governments become saturated with debt, new money/ debt when introduced can only be used to service prior existing debt.

Thus money creation at the saturation point stops adding to productive efforts and becomes a roll-over affair with only the financial services industry profiting via interest and fees. In other words, money goes out and circles right back around to the banks instead of rippling through a healthy non saturated economy. If you cannot follow that most simple logic, then going to Harvard will not help you.

Below is a chart of the Gross Federal Debt, it is now $12.6 Trillion dollars and headed straight up, a classic parabolic rise:

http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/6...ederaldebt.png

Below is a chart of the Gross Federal Debt expressed in year-over-year change in billions of dollars. The same phase transition of debt saturation is clear as a bell.

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/9...ebtyoychan.png

Below is a chart of Federal Net Outlays, parabolic and again headed straight up:

http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/6...netoutlays.png


Clearly this is not sustainable and that means that change to our monetary system is rapidly approaching. No, it will not be left to your children or your grandchildren. It is an immediate problem and fortunately there is an immediate solution. That solution is called “Freedom’s Vision.” It can be found at swarmusa.com.


That chart of diminishing returns is the window to understanding why humankind is trapped in a central banker debt backed money box. No money for NASA manned space flight – NASA’s total budget a puny $18 billion in comparison to the $1.9 Trillion that went to service the bankers last year. One half the schools closing in Kansas City, states whose debts and budget deficits seem insurmountable all pale in comparison to how much money went to service the use of our own money system.


It doesn’t have to be like that, in fact it’s a ridiculous notion that the people of the United States, or any country, should pay private individuals for the use of their money system. Ridiculous!


It’s difficult to see this from inside the box, so let’s look at what happened to Iceland to illustrate. The central banks of the world created financial engineered products and brought them to the banks of Iceland. These products created a boom in the amount of credit. Prices of everything rose, and the people of Iceland then had no choice but to go along for the bubble ride. Then with incomes no longer able to service the bubble debt, the bubble collapsed.


To “save the day,” the IMF and central bankers around the world rushed in to “rescue” the people, banks, and government of Iceland. They did this by offering loans... documents that create money simply by signing a contract of debt servitude. That contract demanded ownership of Iceland’s infrastructure such as their geothermal electrical generating plants. It also demanded the future productivity of the people of Iceland in that they should work and pay high taxes for decades to pay back this “debt.” Debt that they did not create or agree to service in the first place!


There were some wise people who saw through this central banker game and started a movement. They DEMANDED that the President of Iceland put the debt servitude to a vote and the people wisely said, “Central Bankers Pound Sand!”


Thus they now control their own destiny, their future productive efforts still belong to them.


It’s easy to see from the outside looking in, but it’s not so easy to see that it's EXACTLY the same thing occurring in the United States and no one is rising up to stop it. No one, that is, except the movement of people at SwarmUSA.com.


To all the naysayers who think the people do not have the power to make the change, I say take a look at history and how humankind has overcome its obstacles to progress with each new step. Mankind is now teetering between the brink and the dawn of a new renaissance. A new renaissance is coming because mankind is about to free itself from the chains of needless debt that are holding humanity back.

THE Most Important Chart of the CENTURY


==============================================


Capt Bloggs,from page 2 of this thread:


In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.his is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.
Gold and Economic Freedom - Alan Greenspan 1966

Anthill 25th Sep 2011 12:49


Who are the ones that we kept in charge?
Killers, thieves and lawyers...

Foie gras 26th Sep 2011 08:00

What have the Greeks done for us?........
Well lamb souvlakis, purple valiants, changed the architecture of our 'burbs with concreted columnular villas, of course philosophy, poetry, civility and all that stuff,.... sanitation... Well that was the Romans, pizzas, alphas, duccatis, straight roads and syphyillis, of course the aquaduct.
The Poms,... well that was warm beer and cold pies, hot Xmas luncheons, cricket, god save the queen at school every monday morning, morrys and rangies, and the Vickers Viscount!
The Americans,.. KFC, maccas, the Simpsons, AIDs, the internet and of course the Boeings!
The Chinese,... Well.... dim sims, fried rice and everything else that we buy!
Apart from electric cars, what else will they give us?.. A repressed rigidly closed society?.
I guess when the money runs out we'll find out!

Captain Gidday 26th Sep 2011 09:21

Breakfastburrito.
Reading your article reminds me of watching so called 'World Series Baseball'. Just as the Yanks organise a series of games between a team from Texas and a team from San Francisco and call it a "World Series", so the author of the article continually says humanity has a problem, just because the USA has been living way beyond its means. The World does not have a problem. The USA does.
Luckily for Australia, Mr Costello [though he might have sold off some gold too cheaply] did a great job paying off just about all Federal Government debt during his tenure as Treasurer. That would seem to mean, following along with the logic of the article, that if [when] the chill winds blow again soon, the present Australian Government can stimulate the economy again by going mildly into deficit, hopefully temporarily. The stimulus injected into the economy should have a very positive effect on economic activity, as it did during the 2008 crisis. We are much further back up the curve, perhaps where the US was in the 1960s, so that seems a reasonable prediction. Just so long as the stupid baying hounds of the media learn a little economic theory in the meantime and stop banging on about returning to surplus by 2012 [wrong in the circumstances that are unfolding].

China, most of Asia and some of the emerging economies like Brazil are also nicely placed on the curve and though their exports might slow for a while, are also nicely placed to stimulate domestic demand.

That assumes the graph is actually telling us anything useful. I spent quite some time studying stats at Uni, a lot of it a waste of time, it must be said, but it did teach me to be suspicious around zealots with numbers. Can you see any intuitive relationship between the concepts of productivity and deficit spending? I don't find it easy to link productivity, i.e. working harder and/or smarter, with how much debt a government is getting into. Though it churns out a sweet looking chart, does it actually mean anything? I mean, you could chart souvlaki consumption in Greece against total Greek government debt and come up with some pretty chart, but what have you achieved?

Swarm USA only has 186 members, according to their website, so unless Bill Gates or Warren Buffet are on their mailing list, we are way out on the fringe here.

breakfastburrito 26th Sep 2011 12:51

Capt Gidday, a few bits of housekeeping
US Centric (World series analogy) - Fully agree that this article is US centric, as is (unfortunately) a significant body of work, in print & internet. This is a function of the reserve currency system (Bretton Woods I & II). Under this system, whatever happens to the reserve currency affects everyone. Almost everything is traded through US dollars in some way shape or form. Therefore, unfortunately for us, what happens to the US economy is critical to almost every economy that is tied into the reserve currency system (basically everyone).

Swarm USA - I visited that site incidently in preparing the formatting of the article. I make no representation for or against that site. I preserved the links merely for completeness. Even if it only has 1 member, does this detract from the message if it is a cogent argument?
=========================================


Though it churns out a sweet looking chart, does it actually mean anything?
Money in our current monetary system is actually debt - Money is loaned into existence (Government sells a bond to the Central Bank, the Central Bank then creates money out of thin air - holding government the bond as collateral - an IOU backed by governments ability to tax citizens. Government then spends money into the general circulation). Notice that the principle is loaned into existence, but not the interest. This is the fatal flaw in our current system. More money must be continuously loaned into existence to pay the interest on the previously created money. In other words, the money supply must continuously increase.

Consumers can only borrow so much. In theory, they can borrow so their entire income is spent on interest payments - debt saturation. Debt saturation for most people occurs before it reaches 100%, probably around 30~40% of their disposable income. But our system mathematically requires more money to be continuously loaned into existence to pay the interest on previously created money.

Once consumers are "tapped out", there is only one entity with the ability to continuously spend more than its income - the government through deficits. However, as government debt grows, the proportion of spending devoted to paying the interest continuously increases. In other words, of every additional dollar borrowed a greater proportion is devoted purely to pay interest on previous debt, and thus a smaller proportion enters into circulation. Eventually, for every dollar borrowed, none actually enters the economy - it simply pays the interest bill - this is debt saturation. That is what chart 1 is telling you. This is the point the US is rapidly approaching, and it is our problem because of the currency linkages through the Bretton Woods II system. (Its our currency, but your problem -- Treasury Secretary John Connally)

If you want to see how money is debt, this video explains it:

Captain Gidday 26th Sep 2011 21:25


Money is loaned into existence (Government sells a bond to the Central Bank, the Central Bank then creates money out of thin air - holding the government bond as collateral - an IOU backed by governments ability to tax citizens. Government then spends money into the general circulation).
So, then, Breakfastburrito, if that is the case, countries such as China and Norway, who have no net Government debt and have huge reserves, therefore should also have no currency in circulation? The argument is not cogent.

But that is not to say the US doesn't have a problem. Which is why Iraq and Libya were trying to move their payment for oil from USD to Euros, I suppose. Which is why Uncle Sam has been so interested in Iraq and Libya lately, I suppose.

breakfastburrito 27th Sep 2011 01:47


So, then, Breakfastburrito, if that is the case, countries such as China and Norway, who have no net Government debt and have huge reserves, therefore should also have no currency in circulation?
The operative phrase being "no net Government debt". There is also private debt, and I believe if you investigated both China & Norway that there is net total debt- Its just not owed by the government. The government is not the only entity that can create credit, private banks can, they actually create the bulk of credit money in circulation. This is why they have such immense power.

You have inadvertently hit the nail on the head with "should also have no currency in circulation". This is correct, it is the Achilles heel of the system. Without debt, the current money system would cease to exist. Further, without a continuous exponential increase of money & credit in supply to pay back the interest on the money previously created, the system will fail (a series of cascading bankruptcies as interest payments cannot be made, as it has not yet been created).


The argument is not cogent.
Really, did you watch the video? Did you do a google search to test the veracity of my statement?

Here is the US Federal Reserve's (a private bank BTW) own publication: MODERN MONEY MECHANICS

Here's a quote from page 3:

Who Creates Money?
Changes in the quantity of money may originate with actions of the Federal Reserve System (the central bank), depository institutions (principally commercial banks), or the public. The major control, however, rests with the central bank.

The actual process of money creation takes place primarily in banks.(1) As noted earlier, checkable liabilities of banks are money. These liabilities are customers'accounts. They increase when customers deposit currency and checks and when the proceeds of loans made by the banks are credited to borrowers' accounts.

In the absence of legal reserve requirements, banks can build up deposits by increasing loans and investments so long as they keep enough currency on hand to redeem whatever amounts the holders of deposits want to convert into currency. This unique attribute of the banking business was discovered many centuries ago.

It started with goldsmiths. As early bankers, they initially provided safekeeping services, making a profit from vault storage fees for gold and coins deposited with them. People would redeem their "deposit receipts" whenever they needed gold or coins to purchase something, and physically take the gold or coins to the seller who, in turn, would deposit them for safekeeping, often with the same banker. Everyone soon found that it was a lot easier simply to use the deposit receipts directly as a means of payment. These receipts, which became known as notes, were acceptable as money since whoever held them could go to the banker and exchange them for metallic money.

Then, bankers discovered that they could make loans merely by giving their promises to pay, or bank notes, to borrowers. In this way, banks began to create money. More notes could be issued than the gold and coin on hand because only a portion of the notes outstanding would be presented for payment at any one time. Enough metallic money had to be kept on hand, of course, to redeem whatever volume of notes was presented
for payment.

Murray Rothbard provides an excellent explanation of mechanics of money creation in "The Mystery Of Banking" - available for free as a pdf or .epub format, in addition to paper format from amazon.

I haven't just "made up" these arguments. They are extremely well document, and have been well understood by the Bankers for hundreds of years. The fact that you are unaware of this "credit creation" process (as is almost everyone) is because the bankers & governments don't want you to see the fraudulent nature of the system. It is highly unlikely you will read about "fractional reserve banking" in any mainstream media. This does not mean it doesn't exist.

Captain Gidday 27th Sep 2011 03:12

BB. I was merely replying to your statement. You said, without any qualifications, that the only way money is created is for governments to issue debt. Sure, the video suggests private banks create money, but that's not what you said.

So, the Reserve Bank of Australia is not a private bank. I don't know if that should make us feel better, or not.

What happened when Allco and Babcock and Brown went broke, or Ansett for that matter? Or the Icelandic banks, or Greece in the very near future? Did all the loans that were not repaid mean that money disappeared out of the system entirely? If so, is that a good thing or a bad thing? [Don't ask me, I don't know]. I do know that despite the assertion that the Icelanders told the central banks to "pound sand", that they look like having to pay back depositors in the UK and the Netherlands for many years, starting in 2017. And there are only 300,000 Icelanders

If I and thousands of other people my age have diligently paid off our mortgages and loans and owe nothing to anyone, does that mean money has been leaving the system? Or does the fact that we now are accumulators of cash in our bank accounts just make the cycle repeat. Thank goodness for government guarantees on savings accounts, in that case.

You know, we all really need to go outside and play, and not sit hunched over our screens trying to make sense of this stuff. Go and look up at the stars, or watch the waves roll in. In the larger context, it doesn't matter much. Seeya.

breakfastburrito 27th Sep 2011 05:24


Sure, the video suggests private banks create money, but that's not what you said
Agreed, I wasn't clear on that point, it had been a long day.


So, the Reserve Bank of Australia is not a private bank. I don't know if that should make us feel better, or not.
That is correct, the RBA is actually a Federal Government institution, however (always a caveat) it is part of the global central bank system administered by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), a private institution - It is not accountable to any national government.

In essence to gain access to the global credit market Central Banks, private or government have to be part of the BIS system. Therefore, the BIS controls all central banking - in effect controlling them. The international banking cartel exerts its influence through this BIS mechanism. The Australian government has far less control over the RBA than we are lead to believe.

Here's a list of some countries that weren't aligned with the BIS system: Iraq, Iran, Libya, North Korea & Syria, interesting isn't it.



What happened when Allco and Babcock and Brown went broke, or Ansett for that matter?
“Ultimately, every penny of every debt must be paid — if not by the borrower, then by the lender.”
C.V. Myers - The Coming Deflation (1976)

Therefore, in these cases whoever held the debt takes a haircut (discount) of somewhere between 0 & 100%. Most likely banks & pension funds held bonds over these companies, and they incur a loss of capital.

When bailouts happen, the central bank buys these bonds at par with freshly created credit money. This is exactly what happened in the US with the toxic mortgage debt. Banks were "made whole" while the Fed became owner of the toxic waste. This has the effect of devaluing each current dollar - and this shows up as inflation, hence the rise in commodities since the bailout began in 08


If I and thousands of other people my age have diligently paid off our mortgages and loans and owe nothing to anyone, does that mean money has been leaving the system? Or does the fact that we now are accumulators of cash in our bank accounts just make the cycle repeat. Thank goodness for government guarantees on savings accounts, in that case.
If you have no debt's and own assets outright, you are in a strong position. If you have cash/shares/superannuation as assets you might want to think about purchasing some insurance "outside" the monetary system. This could be gold, silver, farmland, collectables (art wine, rare books) or a myriad of other physical assets that people will always need. The key is that none of these assets has a liability attached to it. How much insurance you purchase is a very personal decision, dependant upon your perception of risks and rewards.



You know, we all really need to go outside and play, and not sit hunched over our screens trying to make sense of this stuff. Go and look up at the stars, or watch the waves roll in.
Yep, just finished a nice bushwalk.

Captain Gidday 27th Sep 2011 06:25


What happened when Allco and Babcock and Brown went broke, or Ansett for that matter?
.
Yes, yes, yes. I know the debt holders take a haircut, I was one in BBL. I was more wondering how this effects the fiat money system. Does the removing of debt out of the system have a geared effect in reverse?


If I and thousands of other people my age ....owe nothing to anyone, does that mean money has been leaving the system
Again a question of theory. If the population is ageing, then this should be translating into reduced need for debt. This is especially so if the 'good' reasons to go into debt, to gear into assets such as real estate that have been in an inflationary bubble all my working life, more or less, will in future not be a particularly brilliant strategy. So if consumers reduce rather than increase their debt overall, as % of income, how is that going to affect the creation of money?

breakfastburrito 27th Sep 2011 08:02


Does the removing of debt out of the system have a geared effect in reverse?
Excellent & perceptive question. If debt is extinguished out the system (as an example the central bank buys back banknotes from banks and burns them), then the effect is exactly reversed - and yes because of leverage typically 10:1 for Aus banks there is a 10:1 effect. There is an alternate mechanism for removing credit money from the system, the Central Bank sells bonds in the market (Open Market Operations).

However, these almost never occurs as it would cause the money supply to drop - deflation, an anathema to central bankers (see Bernanke "Helicopter Ben" speech in 2002).

Lets do a hypothetical. You take out a mortgage, you sign two documents a loan note and pledge the house as collateral. On the day of settlement, the bank simply deposits the money in the vendors account through a ledger entry - it has created money out of thin air with your mortgage note as the asset to back the credit money created.

The vendor goes to the bank and withdraws his funds in cash and spends the money immediately. It has entered circulation, it is beyond the control of the bank.

However, you now default on your loan - the money has been created, but the asset (loan note) is now worth significantly less. Its a bad market and the bank only realises 50% of the loan after foreclosing & sale. The loan loss is deducted from the shareholders capital. If enough loans default, shareholder capital is wiped out and the bank is insolvent.

The central bank decides to bailout the bank, as many loans have defaulted. It buys the mortgage note at par, so it creates money out of thin air and exchanges it for the mortgage note. The bank is free to then loan out this money again, at a leverage of 10:1. This process inflates the money supply (as the original money created is still in circulation) and eventually leads to higher prices as there is more money in circulation chasing a fixed number of goods.

The key point is that the credit money created out of thin air has been converted to cash and enters the circulation. If a loan goes bad, there is no method to cancel or extinguish the individual money units "backed" by this particular loan. In theory each currency unit could be identified and cancelled as its backing failed. This would lead to a situation where random holders of currency would suddenly see some of their money become worthless as it is arbitrarily cancelled.

Instead we have a system where bailouts devalue everyone's currency just a bit - everyone pays a price through decreased purchasing power. The money supply must not be allowed to drop for any meaningful length of time or the system is mathematically guaranteed to fail.

This is why the largest outstanding derivatives are for interest rate swaps (342 Trillion as of 2009- BIS figures) used to suppress interest rates so more credit could be lent and credit quality dropped (NINJA sub-prime loans). The mantra of "growth growth growth" from governments and business is all about stimulating the growth of loans to keep the ponzi scheme going.

Demographics - yes aging will diminish the need loans adversely affect the demand for loans. This is why the banking cartel wants to "lever up" Asia. As yet they haven't reached debt saturation, and this is the only way to keep the system going now that Europe & the North America are tapped out.

hongkongfooey 27th Sep 2011 12:02

All very interesting, I only have one question, what is the AUD going to do over the next 6 months ?

The_Equaliser 27th Sep 2011 22:24

Turn It Up!
 
Quote:
Here's a list of some countries that weren't aligned with the BIS system: Iraq, Iran, Libya, North Korea & Syria, interesting isn't it.

Do you really believe this crap, talk about ultra right wing American conspiracy theories. Let me guess, next you will be telling us that the banking cartel is run by faceless Jewish bankers.

breakfastburrito 28th Sep 2011 03:48

Yep, if you claim that I'm hanging out on those right wing conspiracy theory sites like cnbc.com and bloomberg.com, then I'm guilty as charged


Originally Posted by CNBC.com
Libyan Rebels Form Their Own Central Bank

Published: Monday, 28 Mar 2011 | 2:52 PM ET Text Size
By: John Carney
Senior Editor, CNBC.com
Libyan rebels in Benghazi say they have formed their own central bank.

The rebel group known as the Transitional National Council released a statement last week announcing that they have designated the Central Bank of Benghazi as a monetary authority competent in monetary policies in Libya, and that they have appointed a governor to the Central Bank of Libya, with a temporary headquarters in Benghazi, according to Bloomberg.

Is this the first time a revolutionary group has created a central bank while it is still in the midst of fighting the entrenched political power? It certainly seems to indicate how extraordinarily powerful central bankers have become in our era.

Robert Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal thinks the central banking initiative reveals that foreign powers may have a strong influence over the rebels.

This suggests we have a bit more than a ragtag bunch of rebels running around and that there are some pretty sophisticated influences. “I have never before heard of a central bank being created in just a matter of weeks out of a popular uprising,” Wenzel writes.

Source: Libyan Rebels Form Their Own Central Bank



Originally Posted by BLOOMBERG.com
The Transitional National Council released a statement announcing the decision made at a March 19 meeting to establish the “Libyan Oil Company as supervisory authority on oil production and policies in the country, based temporarily in Benghazi, and the appointment of an interim director general” of the company.
The Council also said it “designated the Central Bank of Benghazi as a monetary authority competent in monetary policies in Libya and the appointment of a governor to the Central Bank of Libya, with a temporary headquarters in Benghazi.”

Source:Libyan Rebel Council Forms Oil Company to Replace Qaddafi’s

Why would a group of rag-tag rebel fighters want to set up a central bank? I'm dying to hear your explanation.


“People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.”
-- Adam Smith

There are conspiracies to cheat the public all around you, just look at the Qantas Freight cartel prosecutions, Pratts VISY and the list goes on.

All I do is look around at the world, and I see the uber wealthy getting wealthier, and the average person getting poorer. The vast majority of Americans have had their wealth stripped away from them in the housing crash. The average European is about to have his wealth stripped via the EFSF bailout as the taxpayer backstops and bails out the Portugal/Ireland/Italy & Greece. I have asked myself the question why, and how can I do something to protect myself from this process.


If you really want to see the breathtaking fraud that has been committed under in full view of the regulator in the US, have a listen or read this interview of William Black, a law professor who was the chief prosecutor for the S&L crisis in the early 90's. He asks the question on why there have been no prosecutions for the financial calamity that is underway, with massive mortgage fraud, documented by the FBI in 2002: William Black: Why Nobody Went to Jail During the Credit Crisis The FBI is no longer chasing white collar criminals. If there's no conspiracy why aren't the criminals in jail?

So, if you make it through all that material and your still convinced I'm a right wing conspiracy theorist then there's no fact or reasonable argument I can present that will change your mind.

For the record, I'm neither left or right, they are simply labels to identify you with a tribe in the same category as Ford/Holden, NSW/Queensland &Essendon/Collingwood. There is only one politician in this country that I can see actually has any integrity, the good Senator X.

I'm not bringing religion into it, and I suggest you do the same. Perhaps you would care to dispute my arguments with some facts, I'm all ears.

DutchRoll 28th Sep 2011 05:38


All I do is look around at the world, and I see the uber wealthy getting wealthier, and the average person getting poorer.
On that, we can totally agree.....


There is only one politician in this country that I can see actually has any integrity, the good Senator X.
My opinion is that there are actually a couple lurking in both the major parties too, however their integrity has ensured that they'll never ever be under consideration for the top job.

However I would totally agree that the vast majority, in all of the Australian political parties, and their leaders, plus the majority of independents, are <brown smelly stuff>.

ga_trojan 28th Sep 2011 07:27


Here's a list of some countries that weren't aligned with the BIS system: Iraq, Iran, Libya, North Korea & Syria, interesting isn't it.
You can also throw Yugoslavia and Sudan into that lot as well. Yugoslavia were a prosperous, independent nation until the IMF came along to give a hand.:mad:

So of all the countries that didn't have a private central banking system North Korea is the only the one the US hasn't invaded.......:hmm:

Interesting quote here from Wikipedia on Yugoslavia.


Yugoslavia was once a regional industrial power and economic success. From 1960 to 1980, annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 6.1 percent, medical care was free, literacy was 91 percent, and life expectancy was 72 years. But after a decade of Western economic ministrations and five years of disintegration, war, boycott, and embargo, the economy of Yugoslavia collapsed.

The_Equaliser 28th Sep 2011 22:00

Turn It Up!
 
The countries you have outlined were either war torn or despotic dictatorships, or both. It is a good thing they are not part of the BIS. The idea that a newly installed government in Libya should take control of the central bank and the monetary system is also complately sensible. Especially considering Gaddafi and his family were in control of it and on the run. No conspiracy here.

breakfastburrito 28th Sep 2011 23:42

How about those nut jobs at the Asia Times:

Libya all about oil, or central banking?
By Ellen Brown

Several writers have noted the odd fact that the Libyan rebels took time out from their rebellion in March to create their own central bank - this before they even had a government. Robert Wenzel wrote in the Economic Policy Journal: I have never before heard of a central bank being created in just a matter of weeks out of a popular uprising. This suggests we have a bit more than a rag tag bunch of rebels running around and that there are some pretty sophisticated influences.
Alex Newman wrote in the New American:
In a statement released last week, the rebels reported on the results of a meeting held on March 19. Among other things, the supposed rag-tag revolutionaries announced the "[d]esignation of the Central Bank of Benghazi as a monetary authority competent in monetary policies in Libya and appointment of a Governor to the Central Bank of Libya, with a temporary headquarters in Benghazi."
Newman quoted CNBC senior editor John Carney, who asked, "Is this the first time a revolutionary group has created a central bank while it is still in the midst of fighting the entrenched political power? It certainly seems to indicate how extraordinarily powerful central bankers have become in our era."


Another anomaly involves the official justification for taking up arms against Libya. Supposedly it's about human rights violations, but the evidence is contradictory. According to an article on the Fox News website on February 28:
As the United Nations works feverishly to condemn Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi for cracking down on protesters, the body's Human Rights Council is poised to adopt a report chock-full of praise for Libya's human rights record.


The review commends Libya for improving educational opportunities, for making human rights a "priority" and for bettering its "constitutional" framework. Several countries, including Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia but also Canada, give Libya positive marks for the legal protections afforded to its citizens - who are now revolting against the regime and facing bloody reprisal.


Whatever might be said of Gaddafi's personal crimes, the Libyan people seem to be thriving. A delegation of medical professionals from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus wrote in an appeal to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin that after becoming acquainted with Libyan life, it was their view that in few nations did people live in such comfort:
[Libyans] are entitled to free treatment, and their hospitals provide the best in the world of medical equipment. Education in Libya is free, capable young people have the opportunity to study abroad at government expense. When marrying, young couples receive 60,000 Libyan dinars (about 50,000 US dollars) of financial assistance. Non-interest state loans, and as practice shows, undated. Due to government subsidies the price of cars is much lower than in Europe, and they are affordable for every family. Gasoline and bread cost a penny, no taxes for those who are engaged in agriculture. The Libyan people are quiet and peaceful, are not inclined to drink, and are very religious.


They maintained that the international community had been misinformed about the struggle against the regime. "Tell us," they said, "who would not like such a regime?"


Even if that is just propaganda, there is no denying at least one very popular achievement of the Libyan government: it brought water to the desert by building the largest and most expensive irrigation project in history, the US$33 billion GMMR (Great Man-Made River) project. Even more than oil, water is crucial to life in Libya.


The GMMR provides 70% of the population with water for drinking and irrigation, pumping it from Libya's vast underground Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System in the south to populated coastal areas 4,000 kilometers to the north. The Libyan government has done at least some things right.


Another explanation for the assault on Libya is that it is "all about oil", but that theory too is problematic. As noted in the National Journal, the country produces only about 2% of the world's oil. Saudi Arabia alone has enough spare capacity to make up for any lost production if Libyan oil were to disappear from the market. And if it's all about oil, why the rush to set up a new central bank?


Another provocative bit of data circulating on the Net is a 2007 "Democracy Now" interview of US General Wesley Clark (Ret). In it he says that about 10 days after September 11, 2001, he was told by a general that the decision had been made to go to war with Iraq. Clark was surprised and asked why. "I don't know!" was the response. "I guess they don't know what else to do!" Later, the same general said they planned to take out seven countries in five years: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Iran.


What do these seven countries have in common? In the context of banking, one that sticks out is that none of them is listed among the 56 member banks of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). That evidently puts them outside the long regulatory arm of the central bankers' central bank in Switzerland.


The most renegade of the lot could be Libya and Iraq, the two that have actually been attacked. Kenneth Schortgen Jr, writing on Examiner.com, noted that "[s]ix months before the US moved into Iraq to take down Saddam Hussein, the oil nation had made the move to accept euros instead of dollars for oil, and this became a threat to the global dominance of the dollar as the reserve currency, and its dominion as the petrodollar."


According to a Russian article titled "Bombing of Libya - Punishment for Ghaddafi for His Attempt to Refuse US Dollar", Gaddafi made a similarly bold move: he initiated a movement to refuse the dollar and the euro, and called on Arab and African nations to use a new currency instead, the gold dinar. Gaddafi suggested establishing a united African continent, with its 200 million people using this single currency.


During the past year, the idea was approved by many Arab countries and most African countries. The only opponents were the Republic of South Africa and the head of the League of Arab States. The initiative was viewed negatively by the USA and the European Union, with French President Nicolas Sarkozy calling Libya a threat to the financial security of mankind; but Gaddafi was not swayed and continued his push for the creation of a united Africa.


And that brings us back to the puzzle of the Libyan central bank. In an article posted on the Market Oracle, Eric Encina observed:
One seldom mentioned fact by western politicians and media pundits: the Central Bank of Libya is 100% State Owned ... Currently, the Libyan government creates its own money, the Libyan Dinar, through the facilities of its own central bank. Few can argue that Libya is a sovereign nation with its own great resources, able to sustain its own economic destiny. One major problem for globalist banking cartels is that in order to do business with Libya, they must go through the Libyan Central Bank and its national currency, a place where they have absolutely zero dominion or power-broking ability. Hence, taking down the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) may not appear in the speeches of Obama, Cameron and Sarkozy but this is certainly at the top of the globalist agenda for absorbing Libya into its hive of compliant nations.


Libya not only has oil. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), its central bank has nearly 144 tonnes of gold in its vaults. With that sort of asset base, who needs the BIS, the IMF and their rules?


All of which prompts a closer look at the BIS rules and their effect on local economies. An article on the BIS website states that central banks in the Central Bank Governance Network are supposed to have as their single or primary objective "to preserve price stability".


They are to be kept independent from government to make sure that political considerations don't interfere with this mandate. "Price stability" means maintaining a stable money supply, even if that means burdening the people with heavy foreign debts. Central banks are discouraged from increasing the money supply by printing money and using it for the benefit of the state, either directly or as loans.


In a 2002 article in Asia Times Online titled "The BIS vs national banks" Henry Liu maintained:
BIS regulations serve only the single purpose of strengthening the international private banking system, even at the peril of national economies. The BIS does to national banking systems what the IMF has done to national monetary regimes. National economies under financial globalization no longer serve national interests.


... FDI [foreign direct investment] denominated in foreign currencies, mostly dollars, has condemned many national economies into unbalanced development toward export, merely to make dollar-denominated interest payments to FDI, with little net benefit to the domestic economies.
He added, "Applying the State Theory of Money, any government can fund with its own currency all its domestic developmental needs to maintain full employment without inflation." The "state theory of money" refers to money created by governments rather than private banks.


The presumption of the rule against borrowing from the government's own central bank is that this will be inflationary, while borrowing existing money from foreign banks or the IMF will not. But all banks actually create the money they lend on their books, whether publicly owned or privately owned. Most new money today comes from bank loans. Borrowing it from the government's own central bank has the advantage that the loan is effectively interest-free. Eliminating interest has been shown to reduce the cost of public projects by an average of 50%.


And that appears to be how the Libyan system works. According to Wikipedia, the functions of the Central Bank of Libya include "issuing and regulating banknotes and coins in Libya" and "managing and issuing all state loans". Libya's wholly state-owned bank can and does issue the national currency and lend it for state purposes.


That would explain where Libya gets the money to provide free education and medical care, and to issue each young couple $50,000 in interest-free state loans. It would also explain where the country found the $33 billion to build the Great Man-Made River project. Libyans are worried that North Atlantic Treaty Organization-led air strikes are coming perilously close to this pipeline, threatening another humanitarian disaster.

So is this new war all about oil or all about banking? Maybe both - and water as well. With energy, water, and ample credit to develop the infrastructure to access them, a nation can be free of the grip of foreign creditors. And that may be the real threat of Libya: it could show the world what is possible.


Most countries don't have oil, but new technologies are being developed that could make non-oil-producing nations energy-independent, particularly if infrastructure costs are halved by borrowing from the nation's own publicly owned bank. Energy independence would free governments from the web of the international bankers, and of the need to shift production from domestic to foreign markets to service the loans.


If the Gaddafi government goes down, it will be interesting to watch whether the new central bank joins the BIS, whether the nationalized oil industry gets sold off to investors, and whether education and healthcare continue to be free.

Ellen Brown is an attorney and president of the Public Banking Institute, Public Banking Institute - Banking in the Public Interest. In Web of Debt, her latest of eleven books, she shows how a private cartel has usurped the power to create money from the people themselves, and how we the people can get it back. Her websites are Web of Debt - How Banks And The Federal Reserve Are Bankrupting The Planet... and http://ellenbrown.com.
Asia Times: Libya all about oil, or central banking?

The BIS vs national banks [Asia Times] By Henry C K Liu



More from those "right wing conspiracy theorists nut jobs" at the UK Daily Mail & Telegraph:


MICHAEL BURLEIGH: This saga of moral squalor shames Britain
Last updated at 11:24 AM on 8th September 2011


They say that when supping with the Devil, you should bring a long spoon. The discovery of secret correspondence between the Labour government and the Gaddafi regime in the abandoned British ambassador’s residence in Tripoli reveals dining arrangements akin to snouts grubbing greedily together in one stinking trough.


The tone is occasionally risible. ‘Dear Muammar’, Blair begins a letter to Gaddafi on December 28, 2006, adding the Arabic New Year salutation ‘Eid mubarak’ with a toe-curling desperation to please. Maybe Gaddafi had already wished Tony ‘Happy Christmas’? I somehow doubt it.


In the following March, Blair was at it again, writing with gushing insincerity to ‘Engineer Saif’ – Gaddafi’s playboy son Saif al-Islam – thanking him for sending him a copy of his ‘interesting’ LSE thesis. That will be the plagiarised thesis Saif concocted with the help of Tony Blair’s favourite academics at the London School of Economics, an institution whose once-proud reputation has been dragged through the mud after it accepted Gaddafi’s tainted cash.


You have to pinch yourself to realise that these letters are not a spoof, but instead some of the more farcical elements in the grotesque dealings of a major western power with a flyblown desert dictatorship in North Africa whose leader was recently described by David Cameron as ‘a monster’.
We all knew that Blair had signed up to a sordid Faustian pact with Gaddafi, but to see the letters and embassy documents which have emerged in Tripoli, as well the information obtained from the office of his former Minister for Security Musa Kusa – who turned sides and fled here this spring – is to realise the true, appalling extent of the damage that has been done to Britain.


The manner in which the machinery of government and the security and intelligence forces were co-opted into highly dubious practices on Gaddafi’s behalf is staggering.


Who could have possibly believed that MI6 illegally provided the Libyan secret police with tailor-made questions to be asked of its Islamist detainees, in the sure knowledge that Gaddafi’s thugs habitually used torture?


How can we reconcile the fact that MI6 information and advice was used by Gaddafi to undermine the fundamentalist Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, whose leader Abdel Hakim Belhadj was held and tortured for six years in Libyan jails, with the fact that we now proclaim him a rebel hero who has just been appointed chief of security in newly liberated Tripoli?


Perhaps the most appalling indictment of the last government’s dealings with Gaddafi comes in the form of documents leaked from the office of the dictator’s former henchman Musa Kusa – a man who used torture without compunction and was known in Libya as The Fingernail-Puller-in Chief.
These appear to show that MI6 actually helped capture Belhadj and deliver him into Gaddafi’s hands – an episode hardly likely to lead to a cordial relations with the new regime

We have heard much in recent weeks of the antics of Britain’s Special Forces heroes, as they have brilliantly directed Nato airstrikes on Gaddafi’s forces. But the documents now unearthed in Tripoli reveal that the very same SAS was involved in training the feared Khamis Brigade, commanded by one of Gaddafi’s sons and thought to have been behind some of the worst atrocities in the conflict. Ninety of these killers were even brought to Britain for instruction, before returning home to Libya with Blair’s stamp of approval. Whether that quality assurance covered the Khamis Brigade’s inclination to line rebels against a wall and shoot them is a moot point.


Of course one cannot be naive. In global politics, Western powers such as Britain have to deal with monsters and Mad Dogs – as Ronald Reagan memorably called Gaddafi.


But what is so grotesque is quite how close to him Labour became, and how unscrupulously fawning it was in carrying out his wishes.
Everything about the Labour government’s relations with Libya seems sordid, whether under Blair or Gordon Brown. And how hypocritical these two men seem given the moralising posturing they indulged in on the international scene. Both were always ready to lecture any erring Third World government, not to speak of the Chinese and Russians, on human rights while at the same time helping Gaddafi with his murderous activities.
It was back in 2004 that Blair made his deal with Gaddafi, shaking hands with the dictator amidst the kitsch surroundings of his now burnt-out palace in Tripoli.


They made an odd couple, the right-on London lawyer whose wife was a noted human rights advocate, and the rancid old tyrant.

But Blair saw political capital in embracing the monster. The ostensible reason was that Gaddafi would abandon his WMD programme, although there is no evidence that he did so. The real reason was that Shell and BP would gain extensive drilling rights in an oil and gas-rich country much nearer to Europe than the Gulf. For his part Gaddafi was fed up with being an international pariah and saw the advantage of Western investment in industry, oil and tourism.


But the deal Blair made was shameless. He was to let bygones be bygones. Gaddafi’s past support for the IRA? Think nothing of it. The gunning down of WPC Yvonne Fletcher outside the Libyan Embassy in 1984? Let’s forget it.
Lockerbie? Now this is where things began to unravel – for Blair and Brown ignored the potential anger of both American and Lockerbie families by releasing the bomber Abdelbaset Al Megrahi after Gaddafi threatened ‘holy war’ if the mass killer died in his Scottish prison.


U.S. outrage over the deaths of 270 people – most of them American citizens – was construed merely as a ‘presentational risk’, the papers now show. How typical that a party which was so obsessed with image and PR should construe such a crime in such amoral terms.
Officials also noted in the papers that Megrahi’s release would lead to suspicions that ‘the UK is prepared to do anything to maintain its commercial and other ties with Libya’.


Quite how far Labour’s leaders were prepared to go to keep those oil and gas contracts is now depressingly apparent.
Instead of congratulating himself on bringing down Gaddafi, David Cameron should be initiating a public inquiry into this episode of moral squalor, while ensuring that nothing like it occurs in our relations with the new Libya – or any foreign power – ever again.

DailyMail: This saga of moral squalor shames Britain


Tony Blair's six secret visits to Col Gaddafi
Tony Blair’s close relationship to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has come under fresh scrutiny after it emerged he had six private meetings with the dictator in the three years after he left Downing Street.

By Robert Mendick, Chief Reporter9:32PM BST 24 Sep 2011

Five of those meetings took place in a 14-month period before the release of Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, the Lockerbie bomber.

Mr Blair is coming under increasing pressure to make public details of all his meetings and discussions with Gaddafi. It follows the disclosure in The Sunday Telegraph last week that on at least two occasions Mr Blair flew to Tripoli on a private jet paid for by the Libyan regime.


Among the new meetings uncovered by this newspaper is a visit to Gaddafi in January 2009, when JP Morgan, the US investment bank which pays Mr Blair £2  million a year as a senior adviser, was trying to negotiate a deal between the Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) and a company run by the Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, a friend of Lord Mandelson. The multi-billion dollar deal, which later fell through, would have seen the LIA provide a loan to Rusal, the world’s largest aluminium producer.


JP Morgan’s involvement in the deal is revealed in an email sent to the LIA by the bank’s vice-chairman, Lord Renwick, in December 2008, in which he sought to “finalise the terms of the mandate concerning Rusal before Mr Blair’s visit to Tripoli”.


JP Morgan said Mr Blair had no knowledge of the Rusal proposal. A spokesman added: “JP Morgan declined to participate on such a transaction and thus Mr Blair was never involved, and it was never discussed with him.”


A spokesman for Mr Blair said: “Neither Tony Blair nor any of his staff raised any issue to do with a Russian aluminium company.” He added that the “bulk of the conversations” with Gaddafi had been about Africa and how Libya could develop infrastructure. While Gaddafi raised the issue of Megrahi’s release, Mr Blair always repeated that “it was a matter for the Scottish government”, the spokesman added.


Global Witness, an anti-corruption campaign group which obtained the Rusal email, said Mr Blair’s links to the LIA raised potential conflicts of interest between his roles as a Middle East peace envoy, fund-raiser in Africa and business adviser. Robert Palmer, a spokesman, said: “It’s hard to see how being Middle East peace envoy squares with doing business with a tyrant.”


Mr Blair's spokesman said: "Tony Blair has never had any role, either formal or informal, paid or unpaid, with the Libyan Investment Authority or the Government of Libya and he has not and has never had any commercial, business or advisory relationship with any Libyan company or entity."


This newspaper can also disclose that the Foreign Office granted a visa for Gaddafi’s daughter Hana to come to Britain last year, even though she was supposedly killed in a US bombing raid in 1986. Evidence has also emerged of the full extent of Britain’s deals with Khamis Gaddafi, the tyrant’s feared son, whose Khamis brigade has been accused of committing atrocities.
Tony Blair's six secret visits to Col Gaddafi


Clearly the situation is far murkier than your "no conspiracy here" argument. What is the truth? We are only ever allowed to see just the thinnest slivers of what actually happens behind closed doors at the highest levels. From the crumbs that do fall off the table, it is clear that something stinks to high heaven.

No conspiracies here, move along. We will have to agree to disagree.

oicur12.again 29th Sep 2011 16:44

the equaliser

Take a look at Wesley Clark's chat about what has been planned.


War has been manufactured since the beginning of time for reasons of money and power dressed up has humanitarian intervention (Balkans/Libya) and national security (Afghanistan/Iraq).

gobbledock 30th Sep 2011 02:24

Breakfastburrito, your posts are articulate and well researched. Pretty much all of what you share with others is fact and already out there, no personal conspiracy theories are evident in any of your comments.
Instead of wasting time responding to people like Captain Gidday, keep posting your informative work instead. Some people either refuse to see the truth or simply enjoy arguing over fruitless points for no discernable reason.
As for Libya, if it wasn't so obvious it would be funny -- Central banks are a license to print money, control economies, load your own pockets (or those of a select few) !!! It works in Europe and the USA, why not Libya ??
The grey economic clouds are getting darker. I have said this before, look at what the worlds take was on global economies and finance when this thread commenced ??? Minimal talk on Greece defaulting or even the USA defaulting for that matter, yet here we are a few months later and the ball of string has well and truly unravelled with countries scrambling for solutions, riots, job losses, inflation and bankrupcy, and all the while some posters on here have been throwing around their comments about some of us being "conspiracy theorists, professors or other weido's" ? Unbelievable.

And anybody who thinks Australia is positioned to withstand the coming financial storm also needs to stop living in fantasy land. We are currently in a deeper state of debt than ever before. It all hangs on a knife edge because China is our lifeline and that gravy train has to run out of steam, and it will turn soon. China's inflation is becoming a problem, and remember, the USA WILL default on their loans which includes the 2.3 trillion they owe China, and Greece will also default on its loans (and no, Germany will not play 100% mother to Greece as Germany would risk ending up in the same sh#tpile), this in turn will contribute to the world wide economic disaster that is rapidly approaching. As soon as China and its thirst for resources slows we will be well and truly up sh#tcreek. It is a matter of when not if.
As for Swanny being the 'World's Best Treasurer' ? Ha, what a laugh. He has the best current economical standing, ironically by default. It is not his doing that we have weathered the storm better than other nations, it is by sheer luck that China has such a big resource appetite and we have the resources to feed it, simple as that. The current and previous Australian governments can take no credit for that, mother Australia and what lies beneath the ground get all the glory.

Slasher 30th Sep 2011 05:09

Hedge-fund manager and short-seller Jim Chanos recently offered his latest bearish take on the coming chaos he sees ahead for China.

Chanos who's a bloody brilliant "forensic accountant" in my book (and nailed the Enron and Worldcom frauds) believes the country is headed for a huge real estate bust - one that will send the prices of Chinese banks, real estate developers and commodity producers much much lower. In fact if I quote Chanos on Bloomberg earlier this week -

"The property market is hitting the wall right now and things are decelerating. The CEO of Komatsu said last week that he is having trouble getting paid for his excavator sales in China. Developers are being squeezed. They're turning to the black market for lending, this shadow banking system that is growing by leaps and bounds like everything in China. Regulators over there are really trying to get their hands around the problem. In the meantime local governments have every incentive to just keep the game going. So they will continue with these projects and continue to borrow as the central government tries to rein it in."

In 2008, Americans learned the hard way what happens when a mania in rampant lending, real estate speculation, and shady banking practices hits a wall. When Chanos is proven right on China, and marks my words on this guys, it's going to get really fcuking ugly down there in Oz with that ratbag lunatic government currently in federal power.

I suggest you spare an hour to hear what Chanos is saying. Take it from me - this bugger knows what he's talking about when he speaks on China!



However I should mention that China isn't your biggest near-term worry. That remains with the slow moving financial bloody train wreck taking place in Europe. The latest news I have comes in the form of the IMF's estimate that European banks have more than $400 billion in credit risk. Again from Bloomberg -

The European debt crisis has generated as much as 300 billion euros ($410 billion) in credit risk for European banks, the International Monetary Fund said, calling for capital injections to reassure investors and support lending. Political squabbling in Europe over ways to fight contagion and delays in implementing agreed measures are raising concerns about the risk of defaults by governments, the IMF said. Banks in turn face "funding challenges" because of investor concern about their potential losses from government bonds they hold, with some relying heavily on the European Central Bank for liquidity, it said.

Whatever those stupid politicians do or say, you only need to know that Europe is in a no way out situation - the only possible outcome is more money printing to "paper over" the giant debts countries like Italy and Greece have piled up over the year.

SOPS 30th Sep 2011 07:01

I claim no expertise in any of this, but from what I understand that is currently happening in Europe...Goverments are setting up a scheme to guarantee money that they dont actually have...to lend to themselves..to pay back loans with money the dont have!!!! (if that makes sense)

This has to be a recepie for total meltdown:ugh:

ga_trojan 1st Oct 2011 09:40

Satyajit Das on the Aviation Business and Finance. Absolutely fascinating interview and sounds awfully similar to QF. It is how finance/accounting gurus manipulate and ultimately destroy aviation businesses. They turned airlines into trading companies.

Anyone working in the airline business should hear this.

Interview starts at 2 minutes.

The Friday Podcast: How Money Got Weird : Planet Money : NPR

Captain Gidday 1st Oct 2011 10:43

Sounds like he must have worked for Ansett / AWAS.
Now, if only airlines could really become like banks and bring money into existence, eh, Breakfastburrito? Oh yes, I forgot, they do. It's called Frequent Flyer Points.

SOPS 4th Oct 2011 13:17

Well I think it has started...and on CNBC we have the guy from "Kramers Money" or what ever he is called..that the last time told us all was good...he is now saying that maybe he sort of did say a bit did not really but I did say this was coming......

The next week will be interesting..hold on tight !!!!

Jock p 5th Oct 2011 23:06

Says it all really

"The wealthy, not only by private fraud but also by common laws, do every day pluck and snatch away from the people some part of their daily living. Therefore, when I consider and weigh in my mind these commonwealths which nowadays do flourish, I perceive nothing but a certain conspiracy of rich men in procuring their own commodities under the name and authority of the commonwealth.

They invent and devise all means and crafts, first how to keep safely without fear of losing that which they have unjustly gathered together, and next how to hire and abuse the work and labor of the people for as little money and effort as possible."

Thomas More, Utopia

gobbledock 6th Oct 2011 00:18

You know the system is sick when aprroximately 1% of a countries wealthy have 20% of the countries money in their bank accounts.
When Warren Buffet tells you that he pays less tax than his PA you know something is totally wrong.
The USA Federal Reserve is a structured milk cow for a handful of trillionaire families. When will the world's populous unite and tear this corrupt system apart? It has to be time to tear down the walls protecting a virtual mafia of banking families acting as puppeteers who are holding the population to financial ransome. Give these bast#rds their just deserts. As for the governments who are allowing this rot to exist, who are bending over and allowing themselves and their countries to cop it sweetly because they don't have the balls to say 'enough is enough' well they are equally accountable.


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