Who will win Qantas etc or Virgin/Skywest
 

G'day everyone,

Just a quick question.

It seems that both Qantas and Virgin are going after each other at every turn. Virgin introduced V to compete with QF international, Qantas introduced JQ to compete against VB. VB brought in the E-jets to compete with Qantaslink, and are now tying in with Skywest to introduce turbo-props to the east coast and Qantas have bought Network over in the west to try to hit Skywest where it hurts.

Now the question is; Is it sustainable? In this competition will margins be cut to the point where someone or several someone's go bust? If QF starts going after Skywest with F100's & B717s on FIFO surely they will find it tougher to survive.

Who will win? QF or DJ... and who will lose?

The winner will be the one that doesn't lose.

There is probably enough market for both to survive comfortably.
Australia still only has a two airline (group) duopoly, thats why incompetent management are able to flourish and pay bonuses to themselves while staff have to fight for the slim pickings that are leftover.

In 2+ yrs it will be two airline policy by default (with minor players here and there)

The Punters
 

Ultimately the travelling public will win with lower fares and hopefully better service.
Qantas ran 747-300s from MEL and SYD to PER a few years back.Problem was the A/C kept breaking down.The oldest 747-400s will most likely link the East and West coast.Lets hope there is not a repeat performance of mechanical problems or Qantas will lose out and their reputation further trashed

You can also add Qlink (Eastern/Sunstate) to you the list ex Perth with their Q400s with 3 to be initially based, fairly certain one departed this morning 0545 local

3 Q400's based in Perth N4sir!? More information please!

I think it all depends I think on the fuel price. If it goes up QF has the deepest pockets and Virgin will lose. The other thing I think is a factor is if VB can make it thru the game change without stalling.

International:
VAustralia (If they ever gain traction) will smash QF International. There is no comparison in cost base or product. VAustralia might be the biggest earner next to Vlink for the VB group.

Domestic:
Jetstar will smash everyone. I think they are unstoppable purely because QF will do what ever it takes to make them a success.

Regionals:
A tie between Qlink and Vlink. REX will be the casualty. Although if Vlink goes for the Q400 with progression into VB mainline REX might not loose as many pilots and Qlink could loose a lot but ultimately their pockets are endless.

Mining Charter:
QF is looking to close Skywest down with Network might and aggression. Its very clear to me. Skywest will never be able to match the NAA cost base. They will become a lean mean mighty machine. Skywest still have a few years in their contracts (according to the WA ppruners) so they will be ok for now. I think the Vlink deal will be a drain on Skywest.

"Although if Vlink goes for the Q400 with progression into VB mainline..."

Absolutely no progression as it will be Skywest flying the aircraft. The 'Vlink' pilots will only progress to the F100 or A320 if they choose.

320? Hhmm there might be a line to join there.

Bravo ! The man in the hat nails it in one. Fuel will be the key piece in this puzzle. And the way the Middle East is going at the moment with a still unknown and undetermined amount of dictators being ousted from their century long dictatorships oil is likely to blow out big time !
Pity it wasn't this easy to get rid of The Leprechaun !

to follow up on chadzat

qlink Q400's in perth? When does that start?

Straight from the horses mouth... Initially 3 Q400s to be based in Perth with the view to grow to about 8, if the market exists or can make it exist. I was told at the time, it was to be from March onwards and to be crewed by Sunstate/Eastern. Maybe doing route currency??? This has been on the cards for a while, even prior to the finalisation of the 'Network purchase'.

brissydriver

since you know it all, what are the numbers for this weekends lotto ?

Plain as day what QF's plans are thru the growing of Network. What is the next contract up for renewal? Network have a great spot on the tarmac have their own hangars right there with no messing about. No security screening line?

The ones I have no thoughts/ideas on are:

Tiger
Alliance

There is no competition !

Brissydriver is a :mad:
it is obvious.

I think the 3 x Q400's talk was all before QLink knew about the WA runs. All they have now is Exmouth and Geraldton.

It'll be a fair amount of time and money to do a setup for just 3 aircraft over 1/2 runs. Having said that, anything is possible. But with Network already setup over there, they'll be the obvious vehicle of choice.

ADL only works because of its proximity to the East Coast.

V Australia is starting to gain traction.

But the Qantas group absolutely smashes the Virgin group in this area. Virgin pre tax was LESS than the previous year.

I guess 2011 is the rebuild year. 12 and 13 might be the years to watch. Again in my opinion this is all dependant on oil price and deep pockets. QF might even wish in a weird way for the price to go up as virgin invest heavily in rebuilding the brand. I think the V Australia numbers are ominous ones for QF International.