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Perhaps Sunfish, you would be kind enough to tell us, what is going to happen to this country, (never mind QF) if this God awful hybrid Govt. continues on its merry way (I am really looking forward to the Greens controlling the senate in July, NOT) because what happens to this country is going to affect every airline in this country, not just the QF group. The Question should be: How will QF and other airlines survive this govt.? (Make that along with the rest of us).
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A (long) thought provoking talk by James G Rickards recently covering the global economic outlook, focused in particular on the US/China economic situation & the likely outcomes for money printing, debt defaults,inflation .
This guy is no dummy, here's his bio. Prior to Omnis, Mr. Rickards held senior executive positions at "sell side" firms (Citibank and RBS Greenwich Capital Markets) and "buy side" firms (Long-Term Capital Management and Caxton Associates). Mr. Rickards has been a direct participant in many significant financial events including the 1981 release of U.S. hostages in Iran, the 1987 Stock Market Crash, the 1990 collapse of Drexel and the LTCM financial crisis of 1998 in which he was the principal negotiator of the government-sponsored rescue. He has been involved in the formation and successful launch of several hedge funds and fund-of-funds. His advisory clients have included private investment funds, investment banks and government directorates. Since 2001, Mr. Rickards has applied his financial expertise to a variety of tasks for the benefit of the national security community. |
teresa green
I know politics is not the thing here but if the major parties joined forces every now and again the greens would control SFA.
So blame the majors they still control the vast majority of votes. Greens policies need the full public acid test.Some are clearly silly others fine. QF pax numbers well up domestically and not as bad as thought on the OS side considering the 380 probs.Things travelling OK. Debt is getting more expensive but the big corporate world is cashed up, the USA is recovering.Funding from cashflow was the call from the QF camp a while back. |
Ampclamp, it is impossible to seperate Govt. and Airlines. If this country goes down hill, it has always been the airlines that first show thats things are not travelling well. I admire your optimism, but hell will freeze over before the major parties will agree on anything, much less what to do with the loony left. I and most of you, in my opinion, have every reason to be concerned about what is happening to this country, and what we are going to leave in debt to our children and grandchildren. Anyway, time for the most important thing of all, The Boxing Day Test. At least we might get a win there!
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and what we are going to leave in debt |
Spending a 85 milllion dollar surplus, on crazy schemes of which most were and still are a disaster, bleeding 100 million dollars a day, how long do you think we are going to continue before the birds come home to roost? It might look ok at the present time compared to the US and some European countries, but it cannot continue. With a govt incapable of organising a grape vine over a fence, and the country heading up the proverbial creek, with the Labor Party paddling one way, and the Greens paddling another, we are going around in ever increasing circles. And yes the Airlines as always, will be the first victims. Thats your job mate, and many others. I really hope I am wrong, but I would like to be as sure as winning Lotto.
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The next collapse will be different. There was significant financial reform following the crisis of the 1930s but so far the Obama administration has not completely fixed Wall Street. While the reform package approved by Congress recently might make crises less frequent and milder, critics point out that derivatives have not been completely brought out from underground, banks will remain big and interconnected enough to present risks to the system with new financial tricks, and regulators have been left with the same discretion they had, and failed to use before the crisis. History tells us it will happen again.
An interesting point was when Paul Volcker, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve who was named by President Obama to lead the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board put it bluntly to The New York Times: ''People are nervous about the long-term outlook, and they should be.'' I have stated previously, the bubble of 2008 was a precursor to what is coming. Nothing is fixed, only a patch up job has been done to buy time. Don’t believe what you see. Australia in comparison to the rest of the world escaped reasonably unharmed, but that does not mean that under the surface the cauldron isn’t ready to spill. The majority of people are at financial breaking point, yet banks are still lending to those who cannot afford to pay it back! Look at this Xmas as an example, billions racked up on credit cards while people’s utility bills go unpaid. And as for those certain retailers advertising 36/48 month interest free and no repayments , well those greedy businesses are actually contributing to a mini subprime crisis all of its own. When the biggest of all bubbles bursts, I give it two years, there will be unimaginable pain. What will the government do then? Corporations bankrupt, a country teetering on bankruptcy, no money in the pot to spend on stimulus?? As for the airlines, well…… |
Gobbledook, the tea leaves I'm reading show exactly the same thing as you suggest.
The issue at this stage is debt - specifically American debt. There is not enough money in the world to finance its rollover as it matures, let alone borrow more. What I see happening in America is tragic. Obama is a disaster and the very rich special interests run the country. They blame the poor and unemployed for their own predicament and are busy establishing an Orwellian authoritarian capability to deal with, and suppress, the domestic political unrest that is going to inevitably occur. For example, the American action of creating "fusion centres" where Government, corporate and local law enforcement data is seamlessly joined to create a complete profile of a person is lethal to democracy. One does not even have to commit a crime to be on the watch list as airline travellers have already found out. Simply attending a political demonstration is enough to do it. It's lethal because its easy to construct a "watch list" that allows anyone with access to it to harass others at will because of their political affiliations. This is already happening on a small scale in America to air travellers, but the screening system is going to be extended to train and bus travellers soon. Number plate recognition cameras are already available that control road movement. Experience shows that such technology is inevitably misused, as it has been in Australia already. We already have such technology in Australia. The Victorian police use number plate cameras and laptops as part of their "random" breath testing regime. They park the car with associated dashboard camera a kilometre before the checkpoint, the laptop contains the full details of the Victorian (possibly Australian) criminal and misdemeanour database. If the registered owner of the car has a drink driving conviction, a drug conviction, driving while unregistered conviction in fact whatever profile they set, the laptop will beep, pull up the details which are then radioed ahead to the "random" checkpoint. It is absurdly easy to transform this database into a "sh1t list". The issue for Australia is to "decouple" from the American economy as much as possible and as fast as possible. We then have to ensure that our political parties of both types are given the political will to reject the American Orwellian tendencies that invariably cross the Pacific after a few years. I'm just praying that we are far enough away from America that we can avoid getting trampled in its death throws. Then we have to deal with China, at which point we may very well have to construct our own nuclear deterrent. |
Sunfish +1000. Good summary of the coming Facist state. Your comments about debt has a certain irony. The trap has already been sprung shut. What the vast majority don't realize is that the "money illusion" that is fiat currency (paper,coin & bank accounts) is actually a debt instrument (it is a zero maturity bond). In essence, it is an IOU, its acceptance by others is based only on the faith that others, in turn will accept it for their labours.
Since the 15 August 1971, the world has operated officially on a pure fiat money system (Bretton Woods II), with backing only in the full faith & credit of the US. Unofficially, under BWII we have been operating on the oil standard -USD can be exchanged for oil (Saudi & ME producers will accept USD for oil, in return for military protection provided by the US). However, since the official restrain of the need to back the currencies with gold was removed by Nixon, the global credit creation system has essentially run unchecked. However, much of this currency inflation has been in the asset side (reserves) of the economy, thus not raising "official inflation". Peter Warburton provides an excellent summary of this process in Peter Warburton: The debasement of world currency: It is inflation, but not as we know it. There has been so much credit created, that it cannot possible purchase all physical assets, there simply aren't enough available. In essence, the insiders (China included) are trading in their paper IOU's for hard physical assets, and once this process is complete, fiat currencies will be allowed to fail & a new commodity backed currency will emerge as a reserve currency, backed with the assets of those insiders. The aim is to create a private global reserve currency, controlled by a very small group of wealthy families. Those left holding paper assets will then have worthless paper IOU's (think superannuation, bonds & bank account) and be totally dependent on the state for the essentials of life. They will provide the slave labour for the global corporations. Just look at how South America has worked for the last 500 years, with continuous currency debasement. Argentina in 2001 was a poster child, with insiders converting their peso's to USD, gold & silver shortly before their crisis & hyperinflation (un-pegged to the USD). The wealthy (insiders) became wealthier, and 98% of the population became destitute in a couple of months. This same process has been repeated thousands of times (3800 at last count) with all fiat currencies throughout the record history of paper money failing. The average life expectancy of a fiat currency is 15 years, with very few lasting more than 40 years. Guess what, the pure US currency is 39 years old. If you think I sound like a nut job, then you are not paying attention to the jungle drums. World Bank President Robert Zoellick reaffirmed his proposal to use gold as a "reference point" to reform the current international monetary system on Wednesday in Paris. "What I suggested is that gold serves as a key reference point to allow people to assess the relations between different currencies," Zoellick told the press here at the end of his meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy in the Elysee Palace. "It's an approach that we can take, others also estimate that we can establish a benchmark against prices of principal commodities," the World Bank president said in response to a journalist's question. "I didn't propose a gold standard, which is an important distinction because it would directly link currency to gold," said Zoellick, denying reports that he had called for a return to the " gold standard" to modify the present monetary system, which he called "Bretton Woods II." "The system should also consider employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values," Zoellick wrote in an article published in Monday's Financial Times. Some media said Zoellick's proposal to revive gold's role in guiding exchange rates worked as a shock wave to current discussions and disputes over the international monetary system. The "gold standard" is a system in which the standard economic unit of account is a fixed weight of gold. Under the Bretton Woods system, which was set up in 1944 in the United States, the U.S. dollar was directly pegged to gold -- 35 dollars equaled per ounce -- while other currencies were pegged to the dollar. The Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime broke down in 1971, when the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility of the dollar to gold. |
The aim is to create a private global reserve currency, controlled by a very small group of wealthy families. |
Sunfish,
If we didn't know better, we'd think that the USA's TSA is a classic example of a 'watch list' organisation at play and for every reason other that its charter - homeland security.:eek::eek::eek: mike |
You can add this to Sunfish last post -
Little Johnny snuck this ‘special’ in back in 2005; ‘Schedule 7 of the Anti-Terrorism Bill (No.2) 2005, passed by the Upper House on 6 December 2005, repealed Sections 24A to 24E of the Crimes Act (1914) and reintroduced them, along with several new classes of offence, in a Division 80—Treason and sedition. Crimes in this division now attract a maximum penalty of seven years' imprisonment’. Sedition laws are another measure introduced in an attempt to seize and control the masses if and when required. Don’t think this was introduced just to prevent future terrorist activities, it goes way deeper than that. |
Sunfie,
You assert that Qantas will go broke because of their prediliction towards outsourcing. You associate outsourcing with debt and it is this debt that you claim will sink Qantas. The premise of your assertion is flawed, I respectfully suggest. Outsourcing does not require debt. An expense from outsourcing is no different to an expense arising from a function performed internally - the only question is whether you have enough dough to pay for it. You seem to have a major objection to the idea of outsourcing. Perhaps this is because it wasn't in the widespread use in your day as it is today. The theory of outsourcing is perfectly sound. It holds that the outsourcing of a particular function will be cheaper than to perform that same function internally. Whether this is actually true for every application of outsourcing is debateable - as you would appreciate. |
Isn't it true that if you do something internally you have an asset, but if you outsource you have a debt.:confused: Maybe I am wrong, I am not a financial wizz like some here, it just seems that way to me.
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"a new commodity backed currency"
The Amero maybe? The Triffin dilemma is upon us. |
Brekky
"Unofficially, under BWII we have been operating on the oil standard -USD can be exchanged for oil" This is true and this is why we have seen the start of the never ending resource wars in the ME. Oil price must be controlled, its transportation must be controlled and it MUST enter the market priced in USD to slow the decline of the US economy. Sep 11/terrorism is NOT why conflict is happening. The crunch will come when Iran convinces KSR to go off script and sign oil deals with major importers priced in yen/euro etc. Thats when the real fighting will start but the lemmings will be duped into thinking its because of the terrorists or the communists or the chinese or the men from mars and history will be taught as such. Global geopolitics right now is the mad scramble to prepare for a new financial world order. Everything from NK to Iran/pak/Iraq/Afgh/russia is about oil and gas. |
Triffin paradox indeed oicur, And Larry Summers and crew thought they had solved the dilemma in that famous paper. A commodity back currency conveniently sidesteps this problem for the "host" country. However, the host country cannot gain advantage from seinerage.
Sunfish, they are now proposing to have the military in soft targets US to step up security at hotels and malls The United States is stepping up security at "soft targets" like hotels and shopping malls, as well as trains and ports, as it counters the evolving Al-Qaeda threat, a top official said Sunday. A year after a foiled plot to bomb a US-bound passenger plane, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano told CNN's "State of the Union" program that other places and modes of transportation must now be scrutinized. "We look at so-called soft targets -- the hotels, shopping malls, for example -- all of which we have reached out to in the past year and have done a fair amount of training for their own employees," Napolitano said. Since an attempted bombing on a packed Saturday night in Times Square in May, New York (Xetra: A0DKRK - news) , for example, has installed hundreds of security cameras as part of a plan to triple the number of cameras to 3,000. In September, the city activated some 500 new surveillance cameras at its three busiest subway stations -- Times Square, Penn Station and Grand Central (5592.KL - news) . "The overall message is everything is objectively better than it was a year ago, particularly in the aviation environment. But we're also looking at addressing other areas," Napolitano said. As extremists struggle to circumvent tighter security at airports and search for new avenues, she said US officials were looking to step up broader measures. "What we have to do is say, well, what other ways are they thinking to commit an act, because our job is not only to react, but to be thinking always ahead, what could be happening," Napolitano said. "And so we have enhanced measures going on at surface transportation, not because we have a specific or credible threat there, but because we know, looking at Madrid and London, that's been another source of targets for terrorists." Suicide bombers killed 52 people aboard a bus and three London Underground trains in 2005. And in Europe (news) 's worst terror attack, 191 people were killed and nearly 2000 injured in Madrid in March 2004 when 10 backpacks filled with nails and explosives went off on four trains during morning rush hour. "It means, as we make the land borders harder to cross from a land border crossing standpoint, that we need to be looking out into our coasts and to the waters," said Napolitano. Last Christmas, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, a young Nigerian who claims to have been trained by Al-Qaeda operatives in the Yemen, failed to detonate explosives concealed in his underwear on a packed transatlantic airliner as it came in to land in Detroit. The US authorities responded by installing new screening machines and initiating draconian body searches at airports. Napolitano said international travelers in the United States also face tight intelligence screening even before they reach the boarding gate. "Work camps" to follow perhaps? |
Qantas wants its image to take off after a tough year | The Australian
Article on Qantas and abit of quotation from AJ in The Australian. Funny how he failed to mention to invest in his own employee to improve the image. :ugh: |
The theory of outsourcing is perfectly sound. It holds that the outsourcing of a particular function will be cheaper than to perform that same function internally. Just my two bobs........ |
The way I see it, nice low price for 5-10 years, its a medium to long term plan, suck them in, let them get rid of their people and machinery and then hike it up....WAYYYYYYY up. What choice do you then have. Probably when AJ departs QF with a rather fat bonus his successor may be battling a new front.... the high cost of offshore maintenance! :ugh: By then, I suppose our friends in Asia will be saying.... "those Australians, you only get one QF in your business life" hook line and sinker! :p |
No Idea Either,
In my last job, i tried my darnedest to preserve the organisation's "Intellectual proprietorship" and "industrial Advantage" but there were Managers with an agenda that left a lot to be desired. I give my old organisation 3 years and it will have lost a lot of its market place position. You sell off your skilled persons advantage, their infinite wisdom and skills and you will pay the penalty. Mike |
December 27, 2010
AUSSIE banks, once held up as the envy of the world, are now at the mercy of foreign lenders. Despite the Federal Government's measures to boost competition in the banking market, little has been done to address the huge reliance on overseas lenders to fund our mortgage market. Official figures show our banks now owe overseas investors a record $352.7 billion, equivalent to 27 per cent of the country's entire economic output. The extraordinary figure, contained in data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is fuelling concerns Australia's financial system is becoming over-stretched. Homeowners could be vulnerable to rate hikes both by our banks and the foreign investors that help fund them. Global fund managers are already getting nervous about Australia's overheating property market - a fact that could lead them to charge a higher interest rate for money they lend to our banks - or withdraw funding all together. "If the global economy recovers strongly that could push interest rates up a lot, and that's a real risk for Australia's because rates are already high and house prices are becoming an issue," said Trevor Greetham, asset allocation director at Fidelity Investments in the UK, which has $3.4 trillion under management. Analysts said if Mr Greetham and others like him withdraw funding, then our banking system will be plunged into a catastrophic credit crunch. Mortgages will be rationed, minimum deposit sizes will be forced up and property prices are likely to collapse. The massive foreign debts have been built up as a result of the unprecedented demand for mortgages over the past two years, largely as a result of the Government's First Home Owners Grant. The stimulus payments enticed huge numbers of borrowers into the market, and because banks did not have enough money on deposit from domestic customers, they had to turn to overseas lenders. "Everybody is looking for the first signs that overseas investors have had enough," one banking analyst said. Gerard Fitzpatrick, global fixed income portfolio manager for Russell Investments, said he was increasingly cautious about lending to Australian banks. Speaking from London last week, he cited the recent catastrophe in Ireland, where the house price bubble effectively broke the banks. "I'm not saying Australia is the same as Ireland, but there are definitely similarities," Mr Fitzpatrick said. "You've had a booming housing sector and rapidly increased lending by banks. "The two situations have enough in common for bond investors to consider the consequences for the Australian housing market - and the banks that are supporting it." Foreign lenders get the property jitters | Herald Sun |
Was talking to a knowledgeable mate in Oz recently and he told me that at least two Banks. NAB was one and I can't remember which the other was - other than it wasn't my bank, received bail outs from the US Fed at the same time US banks were being bailed out. All kept very hush hush.
These are the same banks that were having a drama a few weeks ago with their ATMs not handing out cash - apparently also EFTPOS transactions were being delayed several days rather than being almost instantaneous. That sounds like liquidity problems to me. |
Chimbu, both Westpac & NAB were bailed out by the FED.
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Correct CC,
NAB and Westpac, as per SMH NAB, Westpac tapped into US Fed's emergency funds Things aren't what they seem! |
Meanwhile I have my home loan rate at 2.9% via a Japanese bank, yes there may be problems re currency rates but I am laughing atm! I have free reign to move at will, tell the rapist Aussie banks to explain their international funding costs? Haha cant meanwhile Aussies get totally raped.
Loving it~! |
FGD:
You assert that Qantas will go broke because of their prediliction towards outsourcing. You associate outsourcing with debt and it is this debt that you claim will sink Qantas. The premise of your assertion is flawed, I respectfully suggest. Outsourcing does not require debt. An expense from outsourcing is no different to an expense arising from a function performed internally - the only question is whether you have enough dough to pay for it. You seem to have a major objection to the idea of outsourcing. Perhaps this is because it wasn't in the widespread use in your day as it is today. The theory of outsourcing is perfectly sound. It holds that the outsourcing of a particular function will be cheaper than to perform that same function internally. Whether this is actually true for every application of outsourcing is debateable - as you would appreciate. 2. I was a group general manager in one of the first outsourcing supplier companies. 3. Outsourcing works fine where a vibrant competitive free market for your requirements already exists. Take photocopiers for example. Why would you possibly employ a photocopier mechanic or actually own a photocopier? You have dozens of choices and options in that market. ....however RR Trents are not photocopiers. There is no "competition". Adam Smith will therefore apply, and you will be royally screwed since you have foregone any other option. The "outsourcing" option is therefore entirely artificial. There are not Sixty plus RR Trent overhaul and maintenance companies competing for your business. Maybe there would be for the CFM 56, but I wouldn't know. |
Meanwhile I have my home loan rate at 2.9% via a Japanese bank, yes there may be problems re currency rates but I am laughing atm! I have free reign to move at will, tell the rapist Aussie banks to explain their international funding costs? Haha cant meanwhile Aussies get totally raped.Loving it~! Your loan structure you quote is likely a component from the current subprime mess. Yes I said current, not past. I tell it the way it is with no government or finance institution spin attached. Japan has been an economic mess for at least a decade, propped up and kept afloat by all and sundry in an attempt to keep the Yen tangible, but you can't keep up the smoke and mirrors for ever, they are another tangled web ready to unravel. The crunch will come when Iran convinces KSR to go off script and sign oil deals with major importers priced in yen/euro etc. Foie Gras - Excellent post. Australia has at least 3-4 of the most expensive house priced cities in the world. And with no disrespect, Mackay is one of those cities !! Now don't get me wrong, I love Mackay, it is a great place, but as an example only, to have s#itbox fibro shacks valued at plus 600k is ludicrous. For these same houses to be valued higher than houses in Toronto, Sydney, New York and Germany is absolute evidence that Australia is riding a housing bubble that is going to burst leaving a horrendous mess in it's wake. WHen the US subprime imlpoded it took around 1 week for the top end financial institutes to collapse, but hey, no problem, Uncle Sam will print out some extra notes and slap the culprits on the wrist. I would like to put a wager on the fact that when Australia's bubble bursts ( which will be linked to a catastrophic global collapse) it will take much less than 1 week for the top end to crumble. |
Sunfish,
Could you please tell me when this is likely to happen so that I can put the date in my desk calendar. I do remember at Uni that one of the lecturers said: "If you can find three economists that can even agree on the day of the week then you are doing well" Each morning I go out to pick up the paper and look for the man who tolls the bell and yells : " The end is nigh!" But he never seems to come down our street! Afraid I have heard it all before. |
Originally Posted by Arnie E
Isn't it true that if you do something internally you have an asset, but if you outsource you have a debt.http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/sr...s/confused.gif Maybe I am wrong, I am not a financial wizz like some here, it just seems that way to me.
Tangible assets are easy - engines, planes, vehicles etc Intangibles are much harder to define - what is the quantified value of the Qantas brand, what is the value of Intellectual Property etc. Many accounting games get played with this category and it is being tightened up as a result. Outsourcing is only a debt until it is paid for. Most likely if you are thinking of a longer term contract (eg power by the hour for engines, maintenance services etc) then you're talking about a liability, not a debt. One of the funny thiongs about the tax system is that outsourcing is a tax deductible immediately upon payment of the invoice, i.e. if I spend $10M a month on power by the hour engines I can claim it as an expense, reduce my profit accordingly and thus pay no tax on $10M of earnings. On the other hand if I purchase the very same engines for $100M (or whatever) I cannot claim an immediate tax deduction, I must depreciate the engines over a period of time (whatever the appropriate schedule determines the usable life of the engine to be). And that is one of the clear benefits of outsourcing, you get an immediate tax "refund" on your monthly spend without having to outlay all the cash for the engine either. So you theoretically have an extra $100M of cash flow in your pocket which means no borrowing costs (interest plus opportunity cost more or less = weighted cost of capital) etc. You also don't have the cost of all those pesky things associated with maintaining the engines such as engineers, tools, facilities, and associated costs such as staff travel, training, most of the compliance and QA work (beyond minimal external audit requirements), OH&S issues, greedy landlords etc. Everything gets wrapped up into a nice easy invoice which means all your admin costs are minimised as well, you get rid fo everyone and replace them with a mid level (at best) manager who is called a "contract administrator" or somesuch. Outsourcing has a lot of financial benefits, but the cost is almost always operational. You lose control of your operations, after all, that's exactly what outsourcing is. You can audit and have technical staff there but that's about it. For one of the worst scenarios in outsorucing refer to the 787 program. If that had worked it would have been brilliant but somehow it has become such a clusterf*ck that Boeing don't really know when they'll be in production. If you want to see outsourcing at its best look at Mazda at their prime, basically they counted the number of vehicles that rolled off the production line and paid each of their suppliers based on that. If 20,000 cars were produced then they paid for 100,000 tyres, no more no less as the supplier knew exactly what they had to deliver in what timeframe and order and it worked wonders. So the benefits are there but they can be damn hard to realise in actuality because the bean counters have to realise that cost minimisation does not equate to overall optimisation. Hope that helps R |
Originally Posted by AoA
Meanwhile I have my home loan rate at 2.9% via a Japanese bank, yes there may be problems re currency rates but I am laughing atm! I have free reign to move at will, tell the rapist Aussie banks to explain their international funding costs? Haha cant meanwhile Aussies get totally raped.
Loving it~! Of course, if you borrowed when it was low (say 66c to make the maths easy) then you're in real superbonus territory as each $1 pays back 33c more, a 50% win. If it goes the other way and you've recently borrowed with the strong Aus$ and it reverts to 66c then no manner of interest rate savings will cover your loss. Either way, hope it works out well for you! R |
"already getting nervous about Australia's overheating property market"
and that my friends is the major problem with Australias economy!!! Get rid of negative gearing for residential property and the property pricing market will collapse.....as it should. The rest is just guff! |
Originally Posted by gadrivr
Get rid of negative gearing for residential property and the property pricing market will collapse.....as it should.
Removing neegative gearing sounds like a good idea from a certain perspective, teh reality is somewhat different. And if you like the thought of a collapsing property market how would you feel about collapsing Australian wages? Or is it only collapses in your favour that you like? |
The Australian property market is due for a 'correction' as it is still overvalued.
While it was never as much a bubble as say the Irish, it is still overpriced now especially when compared to the US. Thread relevancy: It will be going the way of the Qantas shareprice. |
"Everybody is looking for the first signs that overseas investors have had enough," one banking analyst said. Gerard Fitzpatrick, global fixed income portfolio manager for Russell Investments, said he was increasingly cautious about lending to Australian banks. Speaking from London last week, he cited the recent catastrophe in Ireland, where the house price bubble effectively broke the banks. "I'm not saying Australia is the same as Ireland, but there are definitely similarities," Mr Fitzpatrick said. "You've had a booming housing sector and rapidly increased lending by banks. "The two situations have enough in common for bond investors to consider the consequences for the Australian housing market - and the banks that are supporting it." Be aware that if the banker boyz in New York and London see an opportunity to short the Oz dollar and then talk its value down, they will take it in a heartbeat. This is a game to them and it makes them hundreds of millions of dollars if they can get it right. |
Happy new year to our friends at Sun State
Remember the future of aviation safety will be made over the few |
Originally Posted by sunfish
Be aware that this is "financial pornography". It is also possible that the author of the statements has an interest in seeing the Australian dollar decline in value.
Be aware that if the banker boyz in New York and London see an opportunity to short the Oz dollar and then talk its value down, they will take it in a heartbeat. This is a game to them and it makes them hundreds of millions of dollars if they can get it right. Absolutely. Although I must also add that, just like interest rates where people had the option to lock in cheaper fixed rates, people and companies will have no right to complain if they do not take action based on the current strength of the Aus$. It may appreciate somewhat but the odds, in my opinin, are now on the Aus$ declining over the medium to longer term if not before. We all have the opportunity to buy stuff online or from the US, once our dollar declines and we get slugged with foreign exchange rate price rises there's going to be a LOT of unhappy people bceause we will have destroyed large sectors of our economy by purchasing from OS and putting our people out of business. I'm not legally allowed to give financial advice, I would suggest to anyone considering investing that they should see their professional advisor. But if you can lock in longer term payments in US$ right now then that MIGHT be a good strategy. I'm looking to buy properties with a very high (in Australian terms) rental yields. Here in Aus we negatively gear investment property i.e. we take a tax loss during ownership whilst allowing a capital gain to occur, in the US there's the option of positively geared property which pays more in rent than the mortgage costs, but you need the security to back it up. Longer term that could provide a good source of US$ income when the world settles back down to a more natural order. R |
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Yep, as with all investments it is important to do good due diligence. If it was as easy as plonking down cash and getting 20% return then there would be a stampede. If you're going down the US property path (and bear in mind the key point was to get a natural hedge against Aus$ depreciation) then most of them seem to have 4 key areas they market and it doesn't take too much to figure out where are "bad" areas and where there are "reasonable" areas.
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Think Twice
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