Pilot Numbers
 

Lets see if I've got this right (or nearly right).
Rex- looking for 30 pilots over the next 12 months.
Qantas - 12 per month starting late April.
Virgin - 140 short now + 90 for the E jets and say 70 for the 777's.
NJS - about 30 short now and say another 25 for the 3 extra 717's.
Qantaslink - reckon on 64 pilots this year for the D8.
Jetstar - 300 ish between now and end 08.
******, Skippers, Aerorescue, Surevillance Australia etc desperate for DE Captains.
Any updates on this chaps - and if its about right are there enough card carrying ATPL holders to fill all the seats once the merry go round stops?

pilot numbers
 

Well, I dunno, no matter how I try to make those figures add up in the Australian work place, I just can't seem to find enough bods to fill the needs, reckon life for some company operations staff is about to get a whole lot more difficult, good luck to the pilots who move up the ladder though........:)

I know the numbers for virgin are correct, the rest I didn't know any figures.... but knew they are all going to need alot of drivers.

The industry is becoming so sparse of experienced drivers.

Some companies that haven't had a mention yet, and who are looking for people are pel-air and jetcraft - they're pulling guys out of piston twins like madness.

Tiger - 5 x A320s = 40 - 50 pilots (by start up at the end of this year)

and of course;
Cathay Pacific
Emirates
ANA
Etihad
Dragon Air
lots of Ozzie boys and gals will be going to these places in the next 18 months.

A couple of reasonable questions that a young person considering entering the industry would be, how much is it going to cost? What is the likely payoff?
Todays answers, $100,000++ entry cost, and the current acheivable industry "pinnacle" would be a j*/vb command paying $130,000+ after 8 to 10 years. qf have not employed for quite some time, and nobody knows what deal will be offered, however, I don't think many are under the illusion that they will be able to eventually achieve a current 744 Capt T&C's. This may change in the future, but it is not the expectation today.
Only when the expected risk/reward equation changes will more potential pilots be willing to take the risks.
The bottom line is that the "headline" rate for what is achievable TODAY will need to increase significantly or the entry cost will need to be significantly reduced to convince the required numbers to consider the risk of undertaking training. Either way it is going to cost the airlines big time.
While ever the equation is stacked this way I believe the industry will fail to produce replacement numbers, let alone allow for expansion.
"Just for the love of it" doesn't cut it when they see the senior exec's walking away with potentially hundreds of millions of dollars.
The "market" rarely spontaneously produces long term solutions to long term problems.

Rumour has it VB is going to drop the endoresment costs. I think J* and QFlink will follow like toppling dominoes. Then its EBA time and we can get more than the crap 3% offered.

A rosy picture indeed. Anyone else subsrcibe to this? Tell him he's dreamin?

The numbers I have been told are:

Emirates 500 over the next 12 months ( coming mostly from VB by the sounds of it)
VB 250 -required for Embraer , B777- 230, current shortfall 50 Total 530

Qantas -12 a month from April/May roughly 100 or so

Jetstar -12 a month until 2009 apparently

Cathay -Has 550 training positions in the sim sequence this year ( both upgrades and intakes) so 275 required.

Japan -Absolute heaps required minimum 120 DECs for one smaller operator alone

Hong Kong Both Dragon and other operators recruiting.

Whoever between Jetstar and Virgin goes to bonding first will get the Lion's share of recruits amongst a small group of pilots out there (and won't the boys that have paid for thier endorsemants to get in be happy!). Won't stop them only keeping them for a few years until they move on to other operators that realise the supply shortage and are begining to pay accordingly. Out of all of the above Emirates (for sheer size of numbers) and VB (for other reasons) will have the biggest problems getting enough people.

Gidday Dan,

Those numbers you quoted at the beginning of the post, do they allow for projected losses to other carriers, or are they simply the numbers required for expansion.

Our Pilot numbers are the same as they were 12 months ago, yet we are providing at least 100 sectors more each week, and growing!

I maxed out my 7 day total for the first time last week, and I'm not alone.

If the stats' don't take into account attrition, then its' better, or worse(depending on your point of view of course) than we thought.

Change??
 

They should be testing and signing provisional agreements with newbies, before the newbies spend money on training. Maybe it will come to this. It should have been that way all the time.
Most of the airlines have been trying to pinch one anothers pilots and military pilots for a long time, to avoid training. Australia has relied on a large pool of GA pilots.
It's all to do with money. Like the rest of aviation they take the cheapest way, and it seems to be a short term fix.
Even though airline people say GA is not good (and it does have some shortcomings) most of Australia's airline pilots are ex GA.
If our airlines show some comitment to some of the wannabies they can expect some commitment from them.

Krusty,

As far as I'm aware the numbers (except for Qlink) are increased numbers in the pilot groups.

But my original post was incorrect as I'd not considered the amount of people who end up OS and also the baby boomer retirements over the next couple of years.

Seems to me that even under the worst/best scenario there will be something like 600 NEW jobs in RPT over the next 2 years - 25 per month.

I reckon that pay won't change much but initial experience required and time to command will. Everyone who really wants a jet job will get one but it won't make you a millionare.

I worry for the big end of town in GA - mining charter, surveillance, search and rescue, RFDS; going to be tough for them to hang on to anyone. Show me the $$ I expect and probably not before time.

Cheers

Dan.

QLink are increasing pilot numbers. In Sunstate not Eastern.

............now why can't some oz airlines get pilots at the moment.........well let's see...jet* - pay for rating, vb - pay for rating, njs - pay for rating & bond, air freight express - pay for rating.....etc.,...etc.,
now what airlines have no problems getting pilots - skywest - bond, ozjet - bond, alliance - bond................
overseas.......emirates, cathay, air nippon, jal, korean ---no payment for rating & no bond. singapore - bond.
so what's the problem?:confused:

Matters Virgin...
 

TSI....
Emirates do bond, to the tune of US$36k over three years for the 777. A small percentage of their requirement will be Virgin Blue boys. (and I do mean boys, their first fairer sex pilot is yet to materialise) They are lucky to get 20 a year at present rate. The numbers for VB are close, but there will be more like 200 over two years due Embraer, and more than most estimate to the 737.
The projected numbers for Virgin's 777 are perhaps on the slim side, as they've been predicated on operating with only 3 crew trans-Pacific. Count how many on a QF Syd-Lax flight deck... Try getting that one past CASA. Reduced crew complement may work aft of the reinforced door...
Might I just suggest that anyone applying for VB aim squarely for the Boeing fleet. If the current proposal is passed, FOs on the EMB will start on 50% of EMB Capt pay, which is in turn 80% of 737 pay, ie only 40% of the current Capt wages, after purchasing a rating that's not nearly as useful in the broader market as the cheaper 737 qualification.
Think folks, think.

....................................not in a million years Yusef baby!:ok:

Now this MPL thingy won't end up becoming the Airlines answer to the same problem that presented itself in the early '60's would it? :bored:

Good to hear, am ready to come home.

Good news for the next couple of years for everyone heading for the 'Big boys' :)

I guess it will be easier (hour wise and generally) to get a job in 5 - 10 years or harder??

500 hour min command?
 

With all this talk about an increasing requirement for pilots is there any sign yet that entry requirements will be relaxed?

The main one that I am worried about is the 500 hour min command time. Im currently sitting on about 200 hours command but have 1600 large multi P1 / P2 and 2000 total.

If that 500 hour figure is flexible then I think I need to get my resignation in and get back to Aus!

Thoughts anyone?

I think the 500 Hours is required for the ATPL, and given that at least VB and QF (don't know about J*) need F/O's to have command endorsements I think that means you will need an ATPL prior to joining (or in QF's case prior to upgrade from S/O).

Might be wrong, but that's how I remember it.