New 'Bonza' LCC launches middle 2022 with B737 MAX
If they had slots and terminal space in the major cities they might be able to get a toe hold just serving the disgruntled segment of the market.
Not really seeing the continuity here- Link is the trading name for the RPT operation of Corporate Air- an operator who has been in existence for decades- they've started regional operations in Saabs and have a tie-in with VA- all sensible business done with appropriate aircraft,
Last time I looked I believe a few people live in Melbourne, Mildura, Albury, Noosa etc
I think the point is ENOUGH population, Mildura has a population of 30,000 roughly. 3 Flights a week in a 737 is 30,000 seats per year, so just from some marketing basics, you would have to carry the whole population of that town in one year to fill 3 weekly flights. Now if you operate AM/PM and well timed runs for business and professionals you will pick up regulars, commuters, that up that number, and yes holiday makers at appropriate times. But 3 random flights a week with no on carriage and you start to see the business case fall apart. Then try to say this will be viable to a destination that is not the major city for that town and the available patronage becomes extremely weak, like Mildura to Cairns or whatever other pairing they are talking about. You can't generate passengers that just don't physically exist, no matter how good your marketing is.
I think the point is ENOUGH population, Mildura has a population of 30,000 roughly. 3 Flights a week in a 737 is 30,000 seats per year, so just from some marketing basics, you would have to carry the whole population of that town in one year to fill 3 weekly flights. Now if you operate AM/PM and well timed runs for business and professionals you will pick up regulars, commuters, that up that number, and yes holiday makers at appropriate times. But 3 random flights a week with no on carriage and you start to see the business case fall apart. Then try to say this will be viable to a destination that is not the major city for that town and the available patronage becomes extremely weak, like Mildura to Cairns or whatever other pairing they are talking about. You can't generate passengers that just don't physically exist, no matter how good your marketing is.
3 flights per week to Maroochy / Brisbane North (sure why not) along with northern connections to Cairns, Townsville and the other northern destinations Bonza will be flying to is not only going to be enough to fill seats, they may actually need more flights
If my understanding of the Bonza model is correct, the below points will ensure success
1) From Maroochydore, there is an almost equal number of flights to the north and south
2) With flights timed in blocks, this will open up flights from, say, Mildura to Cairns 1 stop on an ULCC
3) Morton Shire and Northern Brisbane also served, same as Avalon does with SW Melbourne
4) Maroochydore is a holiday destination
5) Sunshine Coast has a population of over 300,000 with a large amount from down south, both city and regional, visiting families
But by far the most important point is the 1 stop connections at very low fares, Bonza just needs to get the passengers and luggage transfers efficient and all of a sudden they have over 30 1 stop pairs
Find me a ULCC that offers connections?
Connections would make sense when looking at its network, however once you factor in connections, likely cheaper to go Virgin.
They won’t offer connections. Completely against the whole model. Likely to charge to check a bag in the overhead bin and print a boarding pass.
Connections would make sense when looking at its network, however once you factor in connections, likely cheaper to go Virgin.
They won’t offer connections. Completely against the whole model. Likely to charge to check a bag in the overhead bin and print a boarding pass.
Yes Mildura has a lot of seats already, serving a very small community by world standards, however most of the traffic is commuters, business travel and such, not holiday traffic. If Bonza were to operate AM and PM services they would get more seats filled, but that frequency would ensure that the market is truly swamped and end result, no yields and massive losses. Also 90% of the traffic is through to Melbourne, which is the state capital, and there is good reason why that has the highest frequency by far as that is where repeat patronage occurs, not just the odd holiday maker. Any other destination has feeble loads as there is no reason for repeat custom, this is the same for almost all regional communities. With small communities you need frequency for repetitive travel arrangements by business and travelling professionals. However the loads daily amount to double figures at most until you hit sustainable populations of over 100k or significant tourist destinations, although the later tend to be seasonal and miserable outside of that season unless there's other factors. The only way to get 200k seats out of 30k population is repeat patronage, which is way more than a yearly holiday or such.
As for Sunshine Coast via Mildura, how is it going to be lower cost than direct. Two climb segments, and extra set of airport charges and en-route fees, longer travel time. You will only get significant loads if you undercut the incumbent direct operator massively and they are close to full. Considering you are competing with QF, J* and VA on that route and multiple flights per day, who is going to choose via Mildura??? I can buy a ticket tomorrow for less than $150, which must have next to no yield on it.
As for Sunshine Coast via Mildura, how is it going to be lower cost than direct. Two climb segments, and extra set of airport charges and en-route fees, longer travel time. You will only get significant loads if you undercut the incumbent direct operator massively and they are close to full. Considering you are competing with QF, J* and VA on that route and multiple flights per day, who is going to choose via Mildura??? I can buy a ticket tomorrow for less than $150, which must have next to no yield on it.
Don’t forget a whole heap of these regional prop fights average 60-70% loads. It’s more frequency vs filling every flight to the brim, that is all factored into pricing and so on. So those seat numbers on offer are hardly what is actually flown.
The Bonza model will be chasing 90-100% seats full. Big shoes to fill considering they are only getting holiday revenue.
As a Commercial director once told me, we make our money in the last 72 hours before departure. Bonza is relying on holiday traffic that books ahead. Truly bizarre model.
The Bonza model will be chasing 90-100% seats full. Big shoes to fill considering they are only getting holiday revenue.
As a Commercial director once told me, we make our money in the last 72 hours before departure. Bonza is relying on holiday traffic that books ahead. Truly bizarre model.
Mildura has around 190,000 outbound seats through Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney so 30,000 is actually quite an insignificant number
3 flights per week to Maroochy / Brisbane North (sure why not) along with northern connections to Cairns, Townsville and the other northern destinations Bonza will be flying to is not only going to be enough to fill seats, they may actually need more flights
If my understanding of the Bonza model is correct, the below points will ensure success
1) From Maroochydore, there is an almost equal number of flights to the north and south
2) With flights timed in blocks, this will open up flights from, say, Mildura to Cairns 1 stop on an ULCC
3) Morton Shire and Northern Brisbane also served, same as Avalon does with SW Melbourne
4) Maroochydore is a holiday destination
5) Sunshine Coast has a population of over 300,000 with a large amount from down south, both city and regional, visiting families
But by far the most important point is the 1 stop connections at very low fares, Bonza just needs to get the passengers and luggage transfers efficient and all of a sudden they have over 30 1 stop pairs
3 flights per week to Maroochy / Brisbane North (sure why not) along with northern connections to Cairns, Townsville and the other northern destinations Bonza will be flying to is not only going to be enough to fill seats, they may actually need more flights
If my understanding of the Bonza model is correct, the below points will ensure success
1) From Maroochydore, there is an almost equal number of flights to the north and south
2) With flights timed in blocks, this will open up flights from, say, Mildura to Cairns 1 stop on an ULCC
3) Morton Shire and Northern Brisbane also served, same as Avalon does with SW Melbourne
4) Maroochydore is a holiday destination
5) Sunshine Coast has a population of over 300,000 with a large amount from down south, both city and regional, visiting families
But by far the most important point is the 1 stop connections at very low fares, Bonza just needs to get the passengers and luggage transfers efficient and all of a sudden they have over 30 1 stop pairs
I think Jetgo will have great success on both routes with exactly the right sized aircraft for the routes and will likely end up 2-3 times daily on each route
Here's why
1) Those getting international connections will likely save money, even with the JetGo fare as there is greater discounting at Brisbane and Melbourne than Sydney
2) Those traveling from the Gong to Brisbane or Melbourne have a greater chance of making it to the airport on time at Albion Park
3) Albion park avoids the F6 M1 and often hours of fun and games and fog etc
JetGo just needs to keep in mind 2 things
1) keep flights on time
2) keep fares reasonable
The rest will take care of itself
Hiw did that work out?
This was you a while back, Dean-
I think Jetgo will have great success on both routes with exactly the right sized aircraft for the routes and will likely end up 2-3 times daily on each route
Here's why
1) Those getting international connections will likely save money, even with the JetGo fare as there is greater discounting at Brisbane and Melbourne than Sydney
2) Those traveling from the Gong to Brisbane or Melbourne have a greater chance of making it to the airport on time at Albion Park
3) Albion park avoids the F6 M1 and often hours of fun and games and fog etc
JetGo just needs to keep in mind 2 things
1) keep flights on time
2) keep fares reasonable
The rest will take care of itself
Hiw did that work out?
I think Jetgo will have great success on both routes with exactly the right sized aircraft for the routes and will likely end up 2-3 times daily on each route
Here's why
1) Those getting international connections will likely save money, even with the JetGo fare as there is greater discounting at Brisbane and Melbourne than Sydney
2) Those traveling from the Gong to Brisbane or Melbourne have a greater chance of making it to the airport on time at Albion Park
3) Albion park avoids the F6 M1 and often hours of fun and games and fog etc
JetGo just needs to keep in mind 2 things
1) keep flights on time
2) keep fares reasonable
The rest will take care of itself
Hiw did that work out?
There was nothing particularly wrong with their network as such and by all accounts, they were getting reasonable loads
I will concede however that I agree that Bonza 73M is likely too big for the start up routes they have published, I reckon the second round of route announcements will make more sense for 180 seats....
1) From Maroochydore, there is an almost equal number of flights to the north and south
2) With flights timed in blocks, this will open up flights from, say, Mildura to Cairns 1 stop on an ULCC
3) Morton Shire and Northern Brisbane also served, same as Avalon does with SW Melbourne
4) Maroochydore is a holiday destination
5) Sunshine Coast has a population of over 300,000 with a large amount from down south, both city and regional, visiting families
2) With flights timed in blocks, this will open up flights from, say, Mildura to Cairns 1 stop on an ULCC
3) Morton Shire and Northern Brisbane also served, same as Avalon does with SW Melbourne
4) Maroochydore is a holiday destination
5) Sunshine Coast has a population of over 300,000 with a large amount from down south, both city and regional, visiting families
2) Not likely, as pointed out elsewhere, ULCCs don't do connections. More to the point, how big exactly is the Mildura - Cairns market?
3) You're talking rank nonsense here. As highlighted above, Moreton Shire is far closer to BNE than MCY, with far better connections.
4) Yes it is, which is one of the reasons it is currently serviced by between 15 - 20 flights a day by the three majors.
5) See 4)
They'll need to hit very high load factors to come within cooee of making money so every empty seat on those Tamworth and Bundaberg flights is a seat that they must fill elsewhere. Rather than trying to target Allstralia, they likely would have been better going for half of the towns that they've currently targeted.
It'll be interesting to see how they go but there's certainly nothing in the five points you've listed above that will "ensure success".
Looks like a few VA Pilots have jumped across.
I guess some VA FOs now facing a long wait for the left seat, can probably get it in a year or two now.
I guess some VA FOs now facing a long wait for the left seat, can probably get it in a year or two now.
Mick
VA was serving Mildura pre-pandemic with 737s
Bonza (2 per week) is proposing 19,000 per week to MCY (Brisbane North) I stand corrected which is less than currently go to Sydney
Mildura locals are being offered a non stop route to Brisbane (with land transfer) shaving hours off a 1 stop trip and avoiding Sydney or Melbourne at less than 1/2 the price
Regarding Bonza's routes and frequencies, there is an almost identical number of flights to the north and to the south, that's no coincidence....
If check in luggage was loaded correctly for a quick from 1 plane to another and passengers transferring to another flight flight were guider quickly to a remote check in, then this (even for an ULCC) can work easily
May just be 10-20% of all seats on any flight using MCY as a hub, but this is a great way to get seats filled on slim routes
Moving forward, I note there will be a presence in Avalon as well as Tully. Nothing to Sydney and they are also getting a foot in at Wellcamp
It is fairly obvious that they are waiting for SWA to open before they look at Sydney and going to avoid major city airports where they can
VA was serving Mildura pre-pandemic with 737s
Bonza (2 per week) is proposing 19,000 per week to MCY (Brisbane North) I stand corrected which is less than currently go to Sydney
Mildura locals are being offered a non stop route to Brisbane (with land transfer) shaving hours off a 1 stop trip and avoiding Sydney or Melbourne at less than 1/2 the price
Regarding Bonza's routes and frequencies, there is an almost identical number of flights to the north and to the south, that's no coincidence....
If check in luggage was loaded correctly for a quick from 1 plane to another and passengers transferring to another flight flight were guider quickly to a remote check in, then this (even for an ULCC) can work easily
May just be 10-20% of all seats on any flight using MCY as a hub, but this is a great way to get seats filled on slim routes
Moving forward, I note there will be a presence in Avalon as well as Tully. Nothing to Sydney and they are also getting a foot in at Wellcamp
It is fairly obvious that they are waiting for SWA to open before they look at Sydney and going to avoid major city airports where they can
And from the inside, VA was losing large amounts of cash on Mildura even with the occasional full load, because of the sector length. Loads were light and that was with on carriage complements and packaged discounts to an Australia wide network. That's why it was dropped completely post administration. Even Albury/Sydney was loss making on the Jets, which is why it became an ATR route.
If check in luggage was loaded correctly for a quick from 1 plane to another and passengers transferring to another flight flight were guider quickly to a remote check in, then this (even for an ULCC) can work easily
May just be 10-20% of all seats on any flight using MCY as a hub, but this is a great way to get seats filled on slim routes
So says CEO Tim Jordan who quips that “C is all about a connection which means cost complexity and confusion.”