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New 'Bonza' LCC launches middle 2022 with B737 MAX

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New 'Bonza' LCC launches middle 2022 with B737 MAX

Old 8th Jul 2022, 01:29
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Originally Posted by gamma69 View Post
Wouldn't it be great, if it might be sustainable ? More jobs for boys and girls that might be out of work still ? How about some positives
Absolutely it would be great. But wishful thinking isnít going to conjure up break-even loads on the routes they have announced.

If they had slots and terminal space in the major cities they might be able to get a toe hold just serving the disgruntled segment of the market.
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Old 8th Jul 2022, 02:21
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Originally Posted by gamma69 View Post
Wouldn't it be great, if it might be sustainable ? More jobs for boys and girls that might be out of work still ? How about some positives
If wishes were horses....
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Old 8th Jul 2022, 03:26
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz View Post
If wishes were horses....
Who's this LINK airline I keep seeing advertised around the traps?
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Old 8th Jul 2022, 05:35
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Originally Posted by HappyBandit View Post
Who's this LINK airline I keep seeing advertised around the traps?
Not really seeing the continuity here- Link is the trading name for the RPT operation of Corporate Air- an operator who has been in existence for decades- they've started regional operations in Saabs and have a tie-in with VA- all sensible business done with appropriate aircraft,
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Old 10th Jul 2022, 02:04
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz View Post
WHICH market? Sunny coast-Albury?

Time will tell, but no amount of marketing fills aircraft from one place where no-one lives to another place where no-one lives.
Last time I looked I believe a few people live in Melbourne, Mildura, Albury, Noosa etc
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Old 10th Jul 2022, 04:30
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Last time I looked I believe a few people live in Melbourne, Mildura, Albury, Noosa etc
I think the point is ENOUGH population, Mildura has a population of 30,000 roughly. 3 Flights a week in a 737 is 30,000 seats per year, so just from some marketing basics, you would have to carry the whole population of that town in one year to fill 3 weekly flights. Now if you operate AM/PM and well timed runs for business and professionals you will pick up regulars, commuters, that up that number, and yes holiday makers at appropriate times. But 3 random flights a week with no on carriage and you start to see the business case fall apart. Then try to say this will be viable to a destination that is not the major city for that town and the available patronage becomes extremely weak, like Mildura to Cairns or whatever other pairing they are talking about. You can't generate passengers that just don't physically exist, no matter how good your marketing is.
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Old 10th Jul 2022, 05:36
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Originally Posted by DJ737 View Post
Last time I looked I believe a few people live in Melbourne, Mildura, Albury, Noosa etc
Yes. A few. Enough to be served by aircraft with a few seats.
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Old 10th Jul 2022, 07:40
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Originally Posted by 43Inches View Post
I think the point is ENOUGH population, Mildura has a population of 30,000 roughly. 3 Flights a week in a 737 is 30,000 seats per year, so just from some marketing basics, you would have to carry the whole population of that town in one year to fill 3 weekly flights. Now if you operate AM/PM and well timed runs for business and professionals you will pick up regulars, commuters, that up that number, and yes holiday makers at appropriate times. But 3 random flights a week with no on carriage and you start to see the business case fall apart. Then try to say this will be viable to a destination that is not the major city for that town and the available patronage becomes extremely weak, like Mildura to Cairns or whatever other pairing they are talking about. You can't generate passengers that just don't physically exist, no matter how good your marketing is.
maybe half of Sunshine Coast want to holiday in Mildura to make it a break even route?
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Old 10th Jul 2022, 08:07
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Originally Posted by 43Inches View Post
I think the point is ENOUGH population, Mildura has a population of 30,000 roughly. 3 Flights a week in a 737 is 30,000 seats per year, so just from some marketing basics, you would have to carry the whole population of that town in one year to fill 3 weekly flights. Now if you operate AM/PM and well timed runs for business and professionals you will pick up regulars, commuters, that up that number, and yes holiday makers at appropriate times. But 3 random flights a week with no on carriage and you start to see the business case fall apart. Then try to say this will be viable to a destination that is not the major city for that town and the available patronage becomes extremely weak, like Mildura to Cairns or whatever other pairing they are talking about. You can't generate passengers that just don't physically exist, no matter how good your marketing is.
Mildura has around 190,000 outbound seats through Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney so 30,000 is actually quite an insignificant number

3 flights per week to Maroochy / Brisbane North (sure why not) along with northern connections to Cairns, Townsville and the other northern destinations Bonza will be flying to is not only going to be enough to fill seats, they may actually need more flights

If my understanding of the Bonza model is correct, the below points will ensure success
1) From Maroochydore, there is an almost equal number of flights to the north and south
2) With flights timed in blocks, this will open up flights from, say, Mildura to Cairns 1 stop on an ULCC
3) Morton Shire and Northern Brisbane also served, same as Avalon does with SW Melbourne
4) Maroochydore is a holiday destination
5) Sunshine Coast has a population of over 300,000 with a large amount from down south, both city and regional, visiting families

But by far the most important point is the 1 stop connections at very low fares, Bonza just needs to get the passengers and luggage transfers efficient and all of a sudden they have over 30 1 stop pairs
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Old 10th Jul 2022, 09:06
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Find me a ULCC that offers connections?

Connections would make sense when looking at its network, however once you factor in connections, likely cheaper to go Virgin.

They wonít offer connections. Completely against the whole model. Likely to charge to check a bag in the overhead bin and print a boarding pass.
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Old 10th Jul 2022, 09:14
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Yes Mildura has a lot of seats already, serving a very small community by world standards, however most of the traffic is commuters, business travel and such, not holiday traffic. If Bonza were to operate AM and PM services they would get more seats filled, but that frequency would ensure that the market is truly swamped and end result, no yields and massive losses. Also 90% of the traffic is through to Melbourne, which is the state capital, and there is good reason why that has the highest frequency by far as that is where repeat patronage occurs, not just the odd holiday maker. Any other destination has feeble loads as there is no reason for repeat custom, this is the same for almost all regional communities. With small communities you need frequency for repetitive travel arrangements by business and travelling professionals. However the loads daily amount to double figures at most until you hit sustainable populations of over 100k or significant tourist destinations, although the later tend to be seasonal and miserable outside of that season unless there's other factors. The only way to get 200k seats out of 30k population is repeat patronage, which is way more than a yearly holiday or such.

As for Sunshine Coast via Mildura, how is it going to be lower cost than direct. Two climb segments, and extra set of airport charges and en-route fees, longer travel time. You will only get significant loads if you undercut the incumbent direct operator massively and they are close to full. Considering you are competing with QF, J* and VA on that route and multiple flights per day, who is going to choose via Mildura??? I can buy a ticket tomorrow for less than $150, which must have next to no yield on it.
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Old 10th Jul 2022, 09:17
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Donít forget a whole heap of these regional prop fights average 60-70% loads. Itís more frequency vs filling every flight to the brim, that is all factored into pricing and so on. So those seat numbers on offer are hardly what is actually flown.

The Bonza model will be chasing 90-100% seats full. Big shoes to fill considering they are only getting holiday revenue.

As a Commercial director once told me, we make our money in the last 72 hours before departure. Bonza is relying on holiday traffic that books ahead. Truly bizarre model.
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Old 10th Jul 2022, 10:07
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Originally Posted by Deano969 View Post
Mildura has around 190,000 outbound seats through Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney so 30,000 is actually quite an insignificant number

3 flights per week to Maroochy / Brisbane North (sure why not) along with northern connections to Cairns, Townsville and the other northern destinations Bonza will be flying to is not only going to be enough to fill seats, they may actually need more flights

If my understanding of the Bonza model is correct, the below points will ensure success
1) From Maroochydore, there is an almost equal number of flights to the north and south
2) With flights timed in blocks, this will open up flights from, say, Mildura to Cairns 1 stop on an ULCC
3) Morton Shire and Northern Brisbane also served, same as Avalon does with SW Melbourne
4) Maroochydore is a holiday destination
5) Sunshine Coast has a population of over 300,000 with a large amount from down south, both city and regional, visiting families

But by far the most important point is the 1 stop connections at very low fares, Bonza just needs to get the passengers and luggage transfers efficient and all of a sudden they have over 30 1 stop pairs
This was you a while back, Dean-

I think Jetgo will have great success on both routes with exactly the right sized aircraft for the routes and will likely end up 2-3 times daily on each route

Here's why
1) Those getting international connections will likely save money, even with the JetGo fare as there is greater discounting at Brisbane and Melbourne than Sydney
2) Those traveling from the Gong to Brisbane or Melbourne have a greater chance of making it to the airport on time at Albion Park
3) Albion park avoids the F6 M1 and often hours of fun and games and fog etc

JetGo just needs to keep in mind 2 things
1) keep flights on time
2) keep fares reasonable

The rest will take care of itself


Hiw did that work out?
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Old 10th Jul 2022, 16:36
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz View Post
This was you a while back, Dean-

I think Jetgo will have great success on both routes with exactly the right sized aircraft for the routes and will likely end up 2-3 times daily on each route

Here's why
1) Those getting international connections will likely save money, even with the JetGo fare as there is greater discounting at Brisbane and Melbourne than Sydney
2) Those traveling from the Gong to Brisbane or Melbourne have a greater chance of making it to the airport on time at Albion Park
3) Albion park avoids the F6 M1 and often hours of fun and games and fog etc

JetGo just needs to keep in mind 2 things
1) keep flights on time
2) keep fares reasonable

The rest will take care of itself


Hiw did that work out?
Well the Albion Park to Melbourne and Brisbane are still running, as are most of Jetgo's former routes, just with Link now in a similar size aircraft
There was nothing particularly wrong with their network as such and by all accounts, they were getting reasonable loads

I will concede however that I agree that Bonza 73M is likely too big for the start up routes they have published, I reckon the second round of route announcements will make more sense for 180 seats....

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Old 10th Jul 2022, 23:52
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Originally Posted by Deano969 View Post
Mildura has around 190,000 outbound seats through Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney so 30,000 is actually quite an insignificant number
Mildura was racking up a total of around 120,000 - 135,000 outbound pax per annum pre-pandemic. As has been pointed out elsewhere, the majority (>90 percent) of those pax travelled to Melbourne. The load factors on those flights sat in the mid- to high-60s. Bonza are throwing over 50,000 outbound seats at Mildura (two weekly flights to MCY, three weekly to MEL). Whichever way you want to dress that up, that most assuredly is a significant number for what is arguably a well serviced market.

Originally Posted by Deano969 View Post
3 flights per week to Maroochy / Brisbane North (sure why not) along with northern connections to Cairns, Townsville and the other northern destinations Bonza will be flying to is not only going to be enough to fill seats, they may actually need more flights
Bonza are looking at two flights a week MQL-MCY. More to the point though, Maroochydore is most assuredly not Brisbane North, nor is it placed to service Brisbane North. North Lakes to Brisbane Airport is less than 30 kilometres, it's nearly 85 kilometres to MCY. Even Caboolture is closer to BNE than MCY.

Originally Posted by Deano969 View Post
If my understanding of the Bonza model is correct, the below points will ensure success
Ensure success?!

Originally Posted by Deano969 View Post
1) From Maroochydore, there is an almost equal number of flights to the north and south
2) With flights timed in blocks, this will open up flights from, say, Mildura to Cairns 1 stop on an ULCC
3) Morton Shire and Northern Brisbane also served, same as Avalon does with SW Melbourne
4) Maroochydore is a holiday destination
5) Sunshine Coast has a population of over 300,000 with a large amount from down south, both city and regional, visiting families
1) Yes, and ...?
2) Not likely, as pointed out elsewhere, ULCCs don't do connections. More to the point, how big exactly is the Mildura - Cairns market?
3) You're talking rank nonsense here. As highlighted above, Moreton Shire is far closer to BNE than MCY, with far better connections.
4) Yes it is, which is one of the reasons it is currently serviced by between 15 - 20 flights a day by the three majors.
5) See 4)

Originally Posted by Deano969 View Post
But by far the most important point is the 1 stop connections at very low fares, Bonza just needs to get the passengers and luggage transfers efficient and all of a sudden they have over 30 1 stop pairs
Apart from the connection/transfer issue, their problem is going to be the market sector that they are targeting - leisure. For a start, it's seasonal. Second, many leisure travellers are looking to maximise their leisure time. Offering anything less than a daily service throws up all sorts of issues. People generally don't like starting or ending their holidays mid-week. Bonza aren't going to have the fleet to concentrate their schedules around weekends which means they are going to end up with a gaggle of mid-week flights between small regionals.

They'll need to hit very high load factors to come within cooee of making money so every empty seat on those Tamworth and Bundaberg flights is a seat that they must fill elsewhere. Rather than trying to target Allstralia, they likely would have been better going for half of the towns that they've currently targeted.

It'll be interesting to see how they go but there's certainly nothing in the five points you've listed above that will "ensure success".
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Old 11th Jul 2022, 00:05
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Looks like a few VA Pilots have jumped across.

I guess some VA FOs now facing a long wait for the left seat, can probably get it in a year or two now.
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Old 11th Jul 2022, 00:30
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Mick
VA was serving Mildura pre-pandemic with 737s

Bonza (2 per week) is proposing 19,000 per week to MCY (Brisbane North) I stand corrected which is less than currently go to Sydney
Mildura locals are being offered a non stop route to Brisbane (with land transfer) shaving hours off a 1 stop trip and avoiding Sydney or Melbourne at less than 1/2 the price

Regarding Bonza's routes and frequencies, there is an almost identical number of flights to the north and to the south, that's no coincidence....
If check in luggage was loaded correctly for a quick from 1 plane to another and passengers transferring to another flight flight were guider quickly to a remote check in, then this (even for an ULCC) can work easily
May just be 10-20% of all seats on any flight using MCY as a hub, but this is a great way to get seats filled on slim routes

Moving forward, I note there will be a presence in Avalon as well as Tully. Nothing to Sydney and they are also getting a foot in at Wellcamp
It is fairly obvious that they are waiting for SWA to open before they look at Sydney and going to avoid major city airports where they can
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Old 11th Jul 2022, 00:36
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And from the inside, VA was losing large amounts of cash on Mildura even with the occasional full load, because of the sector length. Loads were light and that was with on carriage complements and packaged discounts to an Australia wide network. That's why it was dropped completely post administration. Even Albury/Sydney was loss making on the Jets, which is why it became an ATR route.
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Old 11th Jul 2022, 02:04
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Originally Posted by Deano969 View Post

If check in luggage was loaded correctly for a quick from 1 plane to another and passengers transferring to another flight flight were guider quickly to a remote check in, then this (even for an ULCC) can work easily
May just be 10-20% of all seats on any flight using MCY as a hub, but this is a great way to get seats filled on slim routes
Bonza, Australiaís new airline start-up, has scored a major win with the IATA code AB which reflects its business model of flying from A to B with no C.

So says CEO Tim Jordan who quips that ďC is all about a connection which means cost complexity and confusion.Ē
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Old 11th Jul 2022, 02:12
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Originally Posted by PoppaJo View Post
Looks like a few VA Pilots have jumped across.

I guess some VA FOs now facing a long wait for the left seat, can probably get it in a year or two now.
Thatís just career suicide. I wouldnít think there would be many, if any.
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