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Old 20th May 2021, 12:04
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Virgin are aiming for 60% of the domestic market and now is the time to attack Q...
Err...do you have a source for that?
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Old 20th May 2021, 12:22
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Originally Posted by gordonfvckingramsay View Post
QF wounded? Deep water?
QF announcement today Vs VA announcement today. Despite what you and others think QF are not in a great place. Offering VR on international CC same day VA offering employment. You tell me me what you think?!
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Old 20th May 2021, 12:24
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Originally Posted by mates rates View Post
Virgin are aiming for 60% of the domestic market ...
That would be impossible to achieve with their mid-market strategy product offering. VA will saddle up the most profitable 30 percent of the market that they can achieve and ride that horse all the way to a public share offer.
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Old 20th May 2021, 12:36
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Originally Posted by Colonel_Klink View Post
Virgin targeting 60% of domestic market when they only have about 30% now? Iím sorry but that doesnít pass the pub test.
Agree completely. To jag 60% of the market (Qantas had 65% before VA collapsed) they would need to offer service and quality equivalent to QF. I know I know, I mentioned the words Qantas and quality, but their business lounges, business class standard and FF program leave VA for dust. VA would have to equal that standard or exceed it if they want to knock the Rat off itís perch from its 90% market share. Iím not sure even COVID would bring about that change.


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Old 20th May 2021, 12:44
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Originally Posted by SHVC View Post
QF announcement today Vs VA announcement today. Despite what you and others think QF are not in a great place. Offering VR on international CC same day VA offering employment. You tell me me what you think?!
Really? OK, QANTAS are just clearing the decks of the staff so they can replace them with cheaper contract staff when the international borders open. Never waste a crisis.
Virgin got rid of thousands, they are getting a couple of hundred back with fair work giving every indication they would be OK with them going back to award if they don't give the company what it wants.
And if I was going to back a company to be bailed out by the Feds, it wouldn't be Virgin.
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Old 20th May 2021, 13:32
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Originally Posted by mates rates View Post
Virgin are aiming for 60% of the domestic market and now is the time to attack Qantas with 100 international airframes sitting on the ground.I don’t know what the leasing arrangements would be on these aircraft?But Virgin are leasing aircraft on an hourly flying rate.
Welcome back BNEA320. Hows your Snoworld website going.
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Old 20th May 2021, 21:00
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Virgin are aiming for 60% of the domestic market and now is the time to attack

Err...do you have a source for that?
Of course he doesn't, because its bullsh1t. Jayne has stated she wants to reposition VA in the middle market which is between 30-40% of the domestic market.
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Old 21st May 2021, 00:06
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Originally Posted by SHVC View Post
VA offering employment...
Recruiting 250 staff after Ms Jayne let go 3000. Wow
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Old 21st May 2021, 13:50
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Originally Posted by ozbiggles View Post
Really? OK, QANTAS are just clearing the decks of the staff so they can replace them with cheaper contract staff when the international borders open. Never waste a crisis.
Virgin got rid of thousands, they are getting a couple of hundred back with fair work giving every indication they would be OK with them going back to award if they don't give the company what it wants.
And if I was going to back a company to be bailed out by the Feds, it wouldn't be Virgin.
Plus Qantas has an international network. You simply can't have International CC sitting around on the payroll until 2022 with no income coming in the door due to no flying happening. They own all the 787s but other aircraft that are used for International are encumbered and parked. Qantas has billions in the bank, a largely unencumbered fleet and a rotating credit facility at very low interest rates.

They are not in pain, they will be fine. As someone else noted, VA got rid of half their workforce and are now re-employing about 200.
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Old 21st May 2021, 13:54
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Originally Posted by DanV2 View Post
Welcome back BNEA320. Hows your Snoworld website going.
Qantas paid cash for the entire 787-9 fleet as I understand it. The A380s would be on leases but I suspect that after nearly 13 years, the oldest ones would likely be unencumbered. Ditto most of the 737s and A330s.

One of the things that killed VA was its hideously expensive (due to poor negotiation) lease costs compared to QF, so I doubt that the effect of having the aircraft on the ground is debilitating - I suspect most of QF's fleet are hourly lease. Those that were on finance leases are otherwise likely now owned outright.
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Old 22nd May 2021, 00:24
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Originally Posted by AerialPerspective View Post
Qantas paid cash for the entire 787-9 fleet as I understand it. The A380s would be on leases but I suspect that after nearly 13 years, the oldest ones would likely be unencumbered. Ditto most of the 737s and A330s.

One of the things that killed VA was its hideously expensive (due to poor negotiation) lease costs compared to QF, so I doubt that the effect of having the aircraft on the ground is debilitating - I suspect most of QF's fleet are hourly lease. Those that were on finance leases are otherwise likely now owned outright.
787s used as security would now make them encumbered.

https://www.flightglobal.com/strateg...137514.article

some debt due to mature very soon.

AJ was smart to secure the loan facility against the new 787s before the arse fell out of their valueÖ

Over 5 billion in debt as of last year.
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Old 22nd May 2021, 00:57
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QF announcement today Vs VA announcement today. Despite what you and others think QF are not in a great place. Offering VR on international CC same day VA offering employment. You tell me me what you think?!
All this talk of QF being in a worse position than Rex or Virgin is all garbage. If the doomsdayers predictions come true what role do you think the Government will play to ensure that Australia's most iconic brand and strategic asset will survive? You are kidding yourself if you think politics wouldn't play a part.
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Old 22nd May 2021, 07:08
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Originally Posted by Lookleft View Post
All this talk of QF being in a worse position than Rex or Virgin is all garbage. If the doomsdayers predictions come true what role do you think the Government will play to ensure that Australia's most iconic brand and strategic asset will survive? You are kidding yourself if you think politics wouldn't play a part.
Guvmint doesnít pick winners Lookleft.....Iím sure it will be left to the market.............NOT.
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Old 22nd May 2021, 22:56
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Originally Posted by SHVC View Post
QF announcement today Vs VA announcement today. Despite what you and others think QF are not in a great place. Offering VR on international CC same day VA offering employment. You tell me me what you think?!
Two decades of slash and burn management, every negotiation beginning with demands for large T&C reductions, calls of economic woe whenever it suits them followed closely behind by very healthy profits. Couple this with an almost fully stood up domestic fleet and a huge percentage of domestic capacity...I think QF are in better shape than some would have you think.

Two decades of crying wolf and itís hard to know what the truth really is.

I will happily eat umble pie if Iím wrong but my money is on a miraculously surprising recovery with a modest profit before 2021 is out.
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Old 23rd May 2021, 04:08
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You’re wrong Gordon........it will be an amaaaaaaaaaaazing recovery, not a miraculous one😒😒
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Old 24th May 2021, 01:39
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Amaaazing it will be. There is no denying the debt. It is significant. Fact is the (owned) A380s have a book value now of less than $40M each (value of spare parts). The fleet has been written down across the board meaning:
  • Future depreciation expenses will be reduced due to the reduced book value of the asset.
  • Future net income and profit margin will increase.
  • Future return on assets and return on equity will both increase because of higher future profitability and lower asset and equity base.
  • If the decision is made to retire certain aircraft, the write off is less significant.
So, it’s a question as to whether theses changes combined with revenue generation and cost mgmt are enough to service the debt. A company making $1B before COVID gives me confidence that the debt will be swiftly returned back to the levels needed for future investment (A350s and domestic replacements).

Back to Virgin, they have a different situation but their lease costs and operating costs have been massively reduced. Their load factors are the best out of everyone at the moment due capacity controls. They are doing fine and crew should be optimistic in my opinion.


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Old 24th May 2021, 02:03
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Originally Posted by crosscutter View Post
Amaaazing it will be. There is no denying the debt. It is significant. Fact is the (owned) A380s have a book value now of less than $40M each (value of spare parts). The fleet has been written down across the board meaning:
  • Future depreciation expenses will be reduced due to the reduced book value of the asset.
  • Future net income and profit margin will increase.
  • Future return on assets and return on equity will both increase because of higher future profitability and lower asset and equity base.
  • If the decision is made to retire certain aircraft, the write off is less significant.
So, itís a question as to whether theses changes combined with revenue generation and cost mgmt are enough to service the debt. A company making $1B before COVID gives me confidence that the debt will be swiftly returned back to the levels needed for future investment (A350s and domestic replacements).

Back to Virgin, they have a different situation but their lease costs and operating costs have been massively reduced. Their load factors are the best out of everyone at the moment due capacity controls. They are doing fine and crew should be optimistic in my opinion.
Very good summary.
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Old 24th May 2021, 22:01
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Originally Posted by crosscutter View Post
Amaaazing it will be. There is no denying the debt. It is significant. Fact is the (owned) A380s have a book value now of less than $40M each (value of spare parts). The fleet has been written down across the board meaning:
  • Future depreciation expenses will be reduced due to the reduced book value of the asset.
  • Future net income and profit margin will increase.
  • Future return on assets and return on equity will both increase because of higher future profitability and lower asset and equity base.
  • If the decision is made to retire certain aircraft, the write off is less significant.
So, itís a question as to whether theses changes combined with revenue generation and cost mgmt are enough to service the debt. A company making $1B before COVID gives me confidence that the debt will be swiftly returned back to the levels needed for future investment (A350s and domestic replacements).

Back to Virgin, they have a different situation but their lease costs and operating costs have been massively reduced. Their load factors are the best out of everyone at the moment due capacity controls. They are doing fine and crew should be optimistic in my opinion.
Very well said.
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Old 25th May 2021, 03:41
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The A380s were already hugely written down during the industrial issues back when AJ shut the company down and froze pays mark 1 a few years back, that was definitely a manufactured loss. I would be interested to see how much more they had to wiggle with this full year release. The fact that debt has been increased quite significantly in two years is the issue, I doubt either last years or this loss were manufactured, the accounting pointers are different. I remember the point being made when they used the A380 depreciation to help fight unions, that it may hinder its use for actual tax purposes later.
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Old 25th May 2021, 04:11
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Originally Posted by 43Inches View Post
I would be interested to see how much more they had to wiggle with this full year release.
$1.4B amount of wiggle in FY20. So far this FY, the A380s have been further reduced in value by $116M.

Last edited by crosscutter; 25th May 2021 at 04:24.
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