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Qantas...Post COVID

Old 16th Apr 2021, 07:59
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cynphil View Post
I donít think it refers to deaths at all.......but draw your own conclusions!
I dont think it refers to deaths either but if there are 1000 cases a week coming in its not going to be long before there are hundreds seeking hospital beds closely followed by the deaths.
Just look at whats going on outside of oz.
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 08:22
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by blubak View Post
I dont think it refers to deaths either but if there are 1000 cases a week coming in its not going to be long before there are hundreds seeking hospital beds closely followed by the deaths.
Just look at whats going on outside of oz.
You seem to be missing the point.

ONCE vaccinations are widespread, here in Oz, and in those countries we open up to, CASES may be high if the vaccines prove not to stop infection (which they seem to) but because of the vaccinations, those cases are basically a mild cold at worst, and most likely would show no symptoms. We need to move away from CASE numbers being an important metric. If you have 1000 cases with zero disease, it wonít matter.

Just like the common cold / flu - if you tested the community, there would be thousands per week being infected, but very few of those need medical attention. The same will become true for COVID.

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Old 16th Apr 2021, 21:45
  #83 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist View Post
You seem to be missing the point.

ONCE vaccinations are widespread, here in Oz, and in those countries we open up to, CASES may be high if the vaccines prove not to stop infection (which they seem to) but because of the vaccinations, those cases are basically a mild cold at worst, and most likely would show no symptoms. We need to move away from CASE numbers being an important metric. If you have 1000 cases with zero disease, it wonít matter.

Just like the common cold / flu - if you tested the community, there would be thousands per week being infected, but very few of those need medical attention. The same will become true for COVID.
Well if that proves to be correct it will be a good result.
The trouble with what scomo said is that nobody (himself included) really knows what he is trying to say.
He is more interested in photo opportunities & talking about 'Jenny & I'
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 23:17
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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I’m sorry to say that vaccination certificates carried by inbound travellers won’t be worth the cardboard their printed on. Human nature being what it is, the production of a genuine certificate is a real headache. We will get swamped by the (rich) sick if we open borders and we have no way of containing or treating them.

Im sorry to say that QF international is going to be a very limited semi government service from now on.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 03:22
  #85 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by blubak View Post
Well if that proves to be correct it will be a good result.
The trouble with what scomo said is that nobody (himself included) really knows what he is trying to say.
He is more interested in photo opportunities & talking about 'Jenny & I'
I think the politicians need to take a good hard look at themselves, but I doubt they ever will!
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 06:08
  #86 (permalink)  
 
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Consider.
many opening of international travel would need to go hand in hand with policy of NZ et al as we expand our limited travel bubble in the region.

Influx of Covid may be accepted here by the government, however it will likely create a border once again across the Tasman.

The whole scenario is damned by geopolitical intimacy.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 06:23
  #87 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by t_cas View Post
Consider.
many opening of international travel would need to go hand in hand with policy of NZ et al as we expand our limited travel bubble in the region.

Influx of Covid may be accepted here by the government, however it will likely create a border once again across the Tasman.

The whole scenario is damned by geopolitical intimacy.

Not really. NZ could just ban anyone who hasn't been in Australia for x amount of time or any other possible criteria for people originating from x country in the last x days.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 08:09
  #88 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fonz121 View Post
Not really. NZ could just ban anyone who hasn't been in Australia for x amount of time or any other possible criteria for people originating from x country in the last x days.
I think you have completely missed the point.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 09:14
  #89 (permalink)  
 
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The public will not accept high case numbers. Premiers across Australia are receiving overwhelming mandates for maintaining strict quarantine procedures resulting in low (or no) case numbers. The PM is getting bad press and a loss of confidence of late, the one thing he can hang his hat on is his management of the pandemic. The suppression strategy is gone, an elimination strategy has proven to win votes. You can jump up and down all you like but no one is going to accept COVID cases that come from open borders.

Australia was amongst the first to close, it will be the last to open. Hope for something different by all means, but if you are planning on an October letter calling you back to work, it may not come.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 10:39
  #90 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Tucknroll View Post
The public will not accept high case numbers. Premiers across Australia are receiving overwhelming mandates for maintaining strict quarantine procedures resulting in low (or no) case numbers. The PM is getting bad press and a loss of confidence of late, the one thing he can hang his hat on is his management of the pandemic. The suppression strategy is gone, an elimination strategy has proven to win votes. You can jump up and down all you like but no one is going to accept COVID cases that come from open borders.

Australia was amongst the first to close, it will be the last to open. Hope for something different by all means, but if you are planning on an October letter calling you back to work, it may not come.

The letter is likely to come next week 👍🏼
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 11:31
  #91 (permalink)  
Keg

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Originally Posted by Tucknroll View Post
The public will not accept high case numbers. Premiers across Australia are receiving overwhelming mandates for maintaining strict quarantine procedures resulting in low (or no) case numbers.
The public needs to be educated by the leadership that once vaccinated, case numbers are irrelevant. Given it seems that the vaccine all but eliminates severe disease let alone death we should pay the same attention to Covid case numbers as we do to flu numbers each year. IE basically none.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 11:38
  #92 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Keg View Post
The public needs to be educated by the leadership that once vaccinated, case numbers are irrelevant. Given it seems that the vaccine all but eliminates severe disease let alone death we should pay the same attention to Covid case numbers as we do to flu numbers each year. IE basically none.
Precisely. The tone and focus of the briefings need to change.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 11:42
  #93 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Keg View Post
The public needs to be educated by the leadership that once vaccinated, case numbers are irrelevant. Given it seems that the vaccine all but eliminates severe disease let alone death we should pay the same attention to Covid case numbers as we do to flu numbers each year. IE basically none.
Exactly Keg, well said
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 13:25
  #94 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Keg View Post
The public needs to be educated by the leadership that once vaccinated, case numbers are irrelevant. Given it seems that the vaccine all but eliminates severe disease let alone death we should pay the same attention to Covid case numbers as we do to flu numbers each year. IE basically none.
Of course, but I think youíll find thatís a long way off. Look at how the government responded to public pressure concerning the AstroZeneca vaccination. A hint of public concern and itís effectively pulled from distribution for those under 50. Add to this the delays in vaccine rollout explained away by Scott Morrison because there is no COVID problem here, and consequently no rush and it paints a glacial progression out of this. I daresay the truth of those comments was more along the lines of Ďwe actually have no idea of how to navigate our way out of this.í Fair enough too, itís quite clearly a complete sh!tshow.

Weíre not going to be seeing much education from a Prime Minister who only yesterday was saying that if we open borders we can expect 1000 cases per day and he doesnít know what would happen if that were to occur.

All Iím saying is, donít count on international to return to service in October. There are too many nervous people in the government and the public at large for that to happen. Iíve got plans for the next two years away from flying, I suggest other pilots do the same.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 14:50
  #95 (permalink)  
 
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The reality is the borders will be closed for years to come. Vaccination of a large portion of the population won't change the politicians stance on zero cases. The Australian people are basically prisoners. Quarantine is here to stay.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 19:58
  #96 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by halfmoon View Post
The reality is the borders will be closed for years to come. Vaccination of a large portion of the population won't change the politicians stance on zero cases. The Australian people are basically prisoners. Quarantine is here to stay.
Sadly I believe you are correct.
While the vaccine is considered effective when looking at the data on a macro time scale given how new it is. Long term it is still an enormous unknown when it comes to what will happen with further viral mutations (India for example is pushing a 1.3 billion population, god only knows what could happen to the virus as it spreads through the population there) then there is if booster shots will be required and if they will continue to be effective. I mean even the longer term side effects the vaccine may have on our own bodies...far too many unknowns with this virus thus far for Scotty or the airline CEOs to be calling that international ops are open for business from date X.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 23:08
  #97 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by halfmoon View Post
The reality is the borders will be closed for years to come. Vaccination of a large portion of the population won't change the politicians stance on zero cases. The Australian people are basically prisoners. Quarantine is here to stay.
Getting it back on topic..if thatís the feeling out there, that borders will be closed for years, then what to do with QF International?

How long can International remain it itís current state, and should the Government intervene with a financial stake? Could be a much better investment long term than just handing out $500/wk to employees with the goalposts moving constantly.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 23:53
  #98 (permalink)  
 
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By the 4th quarter of this calendar year both the US and UK, as well as Singapore, will be fully vaccinated. Consequently there will be negligible cases if any. Their borders will be open and unrestricted. The yanks are doing that even now for those vaccinated!

What will Australia do then?

Little if any cases here and over there. Significant numbers of Australians vaccinated. The elderly and vulnerable fully vaccinated.

There will be little logic to argue against travel to these countries.

What little logic exists will result in, at the very least, an arrangement like the Tasman Bubble.
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Old 18th Apr 2021, 01:19
  #99 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Transition Layer View Post
Getting it back on topic..if thatís the feeling out there, that borders will be closed for years, then what to do with QF International?

How long can International remain it itís current state, and should the Government intervene with a financial stake? Could be a much better investment long term than just handing out $500/wk to employees with the goalposts moving constantly.
Put the international division into voluntary administration. Clean the slates and start again. Negative publicity will be more than offset by the savings to be had by renegotiating everything from financing to EBAs.
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Old 18th Apr 2021, 03:12
  #100 (permalink)  
 
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Put the international division into voluntary administration. Clean the slates and start again. Negative publicity will be more than offset by the savings to be had by renegotiating everything from financing to EBAs.
I was half-expecting a response like that from a Virgin pilot. Apples and oranges though...Virgin was/is a great airline but a poor business once JB and his ego got behind the controls. COVID simply accelerated its run into administration.

Whereas QF International is currently being hamstrung by the most restrictive border controls of basically any country in the world. The Government is continuing to contribute to the pain with no pathway out of it, and I’m suggesting that perhaps an equity stake in the Intl arm could be a better option long term than handouts to staff. After Greg Hunt’s comments the other day that even after the vaccine rollout the borders may stay shut makes you wonder how QF Intl can survive in its current form.
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