much of world reopening in March 2021
Ohh FFS, it’s here, it’s not going away anytime to soon.
There shouldn’t be a problem getting another job in flying once this is all over with so many of you being qualified doctors/epidemiologists/disease experts....
There shouldn’t be a problem getting another job in flying once this is all over with so many of you being qualified doctors/epidemiologists/disease experts....
Corona virus’s do not go away. The common cold and influenza are two examples.
My “impression” is a guess, of course. What I do know is the death rate is less than 3.1 % because there are well documented asymptomatic cases.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...527-0/fulltext
This is interesting.Particularly in hospital mortality as it varies with age. Th graph shows up to about age 50 flu and COVID are about the same, after that age COVID is much more deadly, needing ICI care.
My “impression” is a guess, of course. What I do know is the death rate is less than 3.1 % because there are well documented asymptomatic cases.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...527-0/fulltext
This is interesting.Particularly in hospital mortality as it varies with age. Th graph shows up to about age 50 flu and COVID are about the same, after that age COVID is much more deadly, needing ICI care.
Join Date: Jan 2021
Location: McLimitVille
Posts: 0
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
There shouldn’t be a problem getting another job in flying once this is all over with so many of you being qualified doctors/epidemiologists/disease experts....
Here’s an actual example of the blurred lines associated with COVID death statistics:
Was it pneumonia or COVID?
Was it pneumonia or COVID?
Is that not an argument? You disagreed with Icarus but chose to use a 'guessed statistical percentage' in order to portray your side of the case?
And you need to question that scientific modelling is no more accurate than your over-inflated and quite misleading percentage? Is that what you are really thinking? If so, this is the big problem with social media and forums. We don't actually need anybody in the the science arena anymore. Sack all the experts and obtain our facts from self appointed forum experts.
And you need to question that scientific modelling is no more accurate than your over-inflated and quite misleading percentage? Is that what you are really thinking? If so, this is the big problem with social media and forums. We don't actually need anybody in the the science arena anymore. Sack all the experts and obtain our facts from self appointed forum experts.
I qualified my statement by saying that I had excluded asymptomatic cases.
I also said that, if you want to include asymptomatic cases in any comparison then you need also to include asymptomatic cases for influenza.
By their very nature any percentages being parried about for asymptomatic cases, either for Covid or for influenza, are no more than a guess.
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 173
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It was not a guess. It was a quoted simple mathematical percentage based on published hard data from the Australian government.
I qualified my statement by saying that I had excluded asymptomatic cases.
I also said that, if you want to include asymptomatic cases in any comparison then you need also to include asymptomatic cases for influenza.
By their very nature any percentages being parried about for asymptomatic cases, either for Covid or for influenza, are no more than a guess.
I qualified my statement by saying that I had excluded asymptomatic cases.
I also said that, if you want to include asymptomatic cases in any comparison then you need also to include asymptomatic cases for influenza.
By their very nature any percentages being parried about for asymptomatic cases, either for Covid or for influenza, are no more than a guess.
But food for thought is required. There is no doubt in my mind that Covid-19 couldn't carry on unchecked. But when making comparisons, Influenza has had centuries of experience to draw upon on making decisions how to treat flu sufferers. We have vaccines for the flu (although it is a lottery to which variant is in the offing). Yet people still die from it. Where Covid ends up in the 'Viral hall of shame' will be determined in a few years. But we are just going to have to learn to live with it.
I guess some guesses are better than others. There have, since the start of the pandemic, been random test samples done which could be extrapolated to approximate the level of debilitation for a given sample range. The latest figures I read (from a British medical journal publication) were IFR figures varying from 0.37-1.45% (depending on geographical demographics). So you are right, these numbers are guesses (I'd say a statistical estimation would be a better term). So to come up with 4% then a revised 3.1% is a considerably worse guess, almost alarming. My whole beef is why quote a percentage which is of little relevance and considerably more than the better guesses. I have read an article that suggests Covid could be 6 times as deadly Influenza. But these are all generalisations as the widespread data collection for Flu hasn't needed the resources that Covid-19 see's us experiencing today.
But food for thought is required. There is no doubt in my mind that Covid-19 couldn't carry on unchecked. But when making comparisons, Influenza has had centuries of experience to draw upon on making decisions how to treat flu sufferers. We have vaccines for the flu (although it is a lottery to which variant is in the offing). Yet people still die from it. Where Covid ends up in the 'Viral hall of shame' will be determined in a few years. But we are just going to have to learn to live with it.
But food for thought is required. There is no doubt in my mind that Covid-19 couldn't carry on unchecked. But when making comparisons, Influenza has had centuries of experience to draw upon on making decisions how to treat flu sufferers. We have vaccines for the flu (although it is a lottery to which variant is in the offing). Yet people still die from it. Where Covid ends up in the 'Viral hall of shame' will be determined in a few years. But we are just going to have to learn to live with it.
The 4% was just bad rounding and was never intended to be dissected as if it was from published dissertation.
Join Date: Jan 2021
Location: McLimitVille
Posts: 0
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I’m not the one second guessing what medical experts are determining as cause of death for someone
You’re not going to change the way anyone is handling this, so just accept it and move on. Go get another job in the meantime.
Join Date: Jan 2021
Location: McLimitVille
Posts: 0
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Dude, I'm just venting like you do, and have done for the past 3 or 4 years. I'm not stupid enough to think that anything I type here will change anything. Do you honestly think this board has any influence on any subject whatsoever? I'm fulltime employed, in aviation, in a flying job and not subsidised by jobkeeper or seeker. Just like you were lucky enough to pick up a job with your old employer when you got back from overseas, so did I. Well, not with my old employer, a new one.
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: England
Age: 65
Posts: 303
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
dr dre,
Post 152 - First of all, if you're going to quote from another post, don't edit the post to suit your argument.
How is a death certificate a more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid19, when an ambulance crew declares life extinct, this is normally followed by a doctor attending and confirming/issuing a death certificate, as previously stated, they were sealed, bagged and interred. No examination, just a death certificate that stated cause of death - Covid19. That is not more comprehensive, it's far less, admittedly due to exigent circumstances.
Captain Sir Tom was dying of pneumonia, he tested positive for Covid19 and that's what's on the death certificate.
Post 152 - First of all, if you're going to quote from another post, don't edit the post to suit your argument.
How is a death certificate a more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid19, when an ambulance crew declares life extinct, this is normally followed by a doctor attending and confirming/issuing a death certificate, as previously stated, they were sealed, bagged and interred. No examination, just a death certificate that stated cause of death - Covid19. That is not more comprehensive, it's far less, admittedly due to exigent circumstances.
Captain Sir Tom was dying of pneumonia, he tested positive for Covid19 and that's what's on the death certificate.
Dude, I'm just venting like you do, and have done for the past 3 or 4 years. I'm not stupid enough to think that anything I type here will change anything. Do you honestly think this board has any influence on any subject whatsoever? I'm fulltime employed, in aviation, in a flying job and not subsidised by jobkeeper or seeker. Just like you were lucky enough to pick up a job with your old employer when you got back from overseas, so did I. Well, not with my old employer, a new one.
How is a death certificate a more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid19, when an ambulance crew declares life extinct, this is normally followed by a doctor attending and confirming/issuing a death certificate, as previously stated, they were sealed, bagged and interred. No examination, just a death certificate that stated cause of death - Covid19. That is not more comprehensive, it's far less, admittedly due to exigent circumstances.
Anti-vaxxers say death certificate guidelines suggest COVID-19 death rate is overstated. Experts beg to differ
Captain Sir Tom was dying of pneumonia, he tested positive for Covid19 and that's what's on the death certificate.
A patient can die with a lot of co-morbidities and causes. Unless a full autopsy or coronial inquest is done it can be a bit difficult to ascertain how much of the morbidity was influenced by each factor. You can excuse British medical workers for having higher priorities on their hands at the moment.
I'm a bit lost at your point, are you saying that Covid deaths are not causing significantly greater deaths than normal because they stuffed up how they report it on death certificates?
It can be a bit confusing with all these factors and co-morbidities and the like, experts get around this by using excess mortality.
A focus on just confirmed and suspected deaths misses out on those deaths from other causes resulting from more indirect effects of Covid-19. For example, deaths can occur when health systems are strained or overwhelmed and unable to provide sufficient or quality care — think of non-Covid-19 patients requiring ICU beds in units already over capacity due to the pandemic. Deaths can also arise from delays in going to the hospital among those needing care due to fear of getting infected during their stay. And lastly there are deaths stemming from Covid-19’s interactions with noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes, heart disease, cancer, kidney disease, and others.
Also check out the CDC graph of excess death in the US in recent years, compare the 17/18 flu season with the Covid Pandemic on the graph:
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: England
Age: 65
Posts: 303
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
dr dre,
you believe the body of evidence suggesting that Covid deaths are under-reported, on balance I'm inclined to disagree.
You're also quoting Australian medical protocol, they have a 35/1m death rate compared to the UK's 1606/1m.
Even the excess deaths comparison doesn't work, folk were VERY reluctant to go to hospital, even with serious issues, a lot of folk either died at home or left it too late before calling an ambulance; additionally, it's inevitable that the NHS being a bit busy, some services were curtailed leading to other issues.
Under or over, it doesn't really matter - I'm more concerned about the long term effects, our children's children will be paying for this long after we've gone.
you believe the body of evidence suggesting that Covid deaths are under-reported, on balance I'm inclined to disagree.
You're also quoting Australian medical protocol, they have a 35/1m death rate compared to the UK's 1606/1m.
Even the excess deaths comparison doesn't work, folk were VERY reluctant to go to hospital, even with serious issues, a lot of folk either died at home or left it too late before calling an ambulance; additionally, it's inevitable that the NHS being a bit busy, some services were curtailed leading to other issues.
Under or over, it doesn't really matter - I'm more concerned about the long term effects, our children's children will be paying for this long after we've gone.
Keep in mind that the number of excess deaths is not all covid. People are skipping normal preventive medical care and in some locations most elective medical procedures were stopped. In addition mental health issues have led to a increase in suicide. Another thing is that the flu season is non existent! In the US hospitals get additional funds for covid patients but not for flu patients. Virtually no flu deaths. Perhaps some are being miss categorized!
When I read the last Coroners report for Victoria, the worst-affected state in Australia, it showed a reduction of suicides in 2020 versus 2019.
Would be interested to know if you have actual data in conflict with the Coroner's report, or whether you are just making an assumption.
As I said above, the media just love reporting road deaths, they are all over it. Suicide deaths are three times as many. Silence. Which is the bigger problem? Accidents due to fatigue and stupidity or people choosing to take their own life. I know my thoughts. Now apply that media bias philosophy to Covid coverage.