REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops
Noting the issues of potential sample bias with such a small sample, if you look at QF, VA and Rex midday/1pm SYD-MEL flights today, QF have a somewhat astounding 90% LF, VA around 55% and Rex will post something like 35-40%.
Yep, I'm aware of that limitation. The QF and VA numbers are from a more reliable source, Rex less so but I've applied a generous fudge factor there (the Rex LF could be as low as 30%).
Would depend on when they cancelled the 12.30pm but yes, that most assuredly could explain that very high LF. The same 1pm flight tomorrow looks like a 70% LF presently.
Hearing whispers of rex crew leaving for VA
Load factors for this year are a waste of time comparing. Many flyers would have credits and FF points from last year they might be cashing in on QF and VA, hard to say what is revenue and whats pre-sold bookings being honored. Next year the LFs might be more reflective of actual sales. End of year results will tell the story for those listed companies.
Load factors for this year are a waste of time comparing. Many flyers would have credits and FF points from last year they might be cashing in on QF and VA, hard to say what is revenue and whats pre-sold bookings being honored. Next year the LFs might be more reflective of actual sales. End of year results will tell the story for those listed companies.
Not because I necessarily wanted to fly with them.
Don’t want to get caught in another Ansett.
Why do so many of you care what the LF are? Have you not got something better to do than be searching what Rexs load factors are? It appears some of you have no life what so ever. Get a life. It’s not important.
I do not have intimate knowledge of the funding agreement between REX and PAG Asia Capital. I know this though:
1. PAG would give REX $1.50 per share in what is essentially a cash for equity swap.
2. The first $50M gives PAG a 23% stake in REX
3. However, the remaining $100M gives PAG a far less attractive conversion rate. PAG would then have a 48% stake in REX.
4. The current share price is $1.24 and the YTD trend is bad. Put it all another way…REX has a total market Capitalisation well less than the $150M in the PAG agreement.
Now LF might matter nothing to you or I, but do they matter to PAG? Without them it’s game over in the Jet space….and how keen will they be to inject the remaining $100M? In a congested domestic market, load factors means more to REX than anyone when their half year government grants and subsidies represented 1.5 times their entire passenger revenue. Private Equity will decide, and you can be sure they are watching LF carefully.
It matters not what level of debt QF have, or the finances of Virgin (Bain). The first decision point will be for PAG capital to show their intent, commitment and stomach to keep playing.
1. PAG would give REX $1.50 per share in what is essentially a cash for equity swap.
2. The first $50M gives PAG a 23% stake in REX
3. However, the remaining $100M gives PAG a far less attractive conversion rate. PAG would then have a 48% stake in REX.
4. The current share price is $1.24 and the YTD trend is bad. Put it all another way…REX has a total market Capitalisation well less than the $150M in the PAG agreement.
Now LF might matter nothing to you or I, but do they matter to PAG? Without them it’s game over in the Jet space….and how keen will they be to inject the remaining $100M? In a congested domestic market, load factors means more to REX than anyone when their half year government grants and subsidies represented 1.5 times their entire passenger revenue. Private Equity will decide, and you can be sure they are watching LF carefully.
It matters not what level of debt QF have, or the finances of Virgin (Bain). The first decision point will be for PAG capital to show their intent, commitment and stomach to keep playing.
Last edited by crosscutter; 26th May 2021 at 06:30.
Looks like Rex may be in the market for some pilots. 88 pilots due to be re employed back at Virgin by years end is the word on the street. 44 CPT and FO spots coming back.
Who was the clever Richard who employed ex wb senior pilots. Extra training only to have some of them bug off.
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Allegedly, ADL-ML-ADL route was REX best performing that has now potential to be canceled as SA will tighten their border today with VIC, expected case numbers to blow out. Their very poorly performing SY-ML-SY will almost be reduced to ferrying empty A/C after today as NSW will tighten their travel requirements.
Will this accelerate their permanent grounding, or, will JS have money in the bank to pay for a non flying 737 op!
Will this accelerate their permanent grounding, or, will JS have money in the bank to pay for a non flying 737 op!
Allegedly, ADL-ML-ADL route was REX best performing that has now potential to be canceled as SA will tighten their border today with VIC, expected case numbers to blow out. Their very poorly performing SY-ML-SY will almost be reduced to ferrying empty A/C after today as NSW will tighten their travel requirements.
Will this accelerate their permanent grounding, or, will JS have money in the bank to pay for a non flying 737 op!
Will this accelerate their permanent grounding, or, will JS have money in the bank to pay for a non flying 737 op!
Not sure where the doom is coming from, Rex is breaking even this year, a few managed cancellations is not going to affect that much. Flyers don't pay for tickets at the gate so empty airplanes just get cancelled, tickets deferred, money is in the bank, this actually helps operators with low LF as the passengers are then combined onto flights later with more paying passengers for a higher LF. Its not like they are losing $2 billion a year at the moment,or are coming out of insolvency.