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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

Old 8th May 2021, 05:20
  #1061 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
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-PAG was chartered by the Brumbies to fly CBR-BNE, gotta offset those $39 fares somehow.
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Old 8th May 2021, 07:17
  #1062 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Paragraph377 View Post
Is Wendy still flying?
Qui est Wendy?
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Old 8th May 2021, 07:46
  #1063 (permalink)  
 
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Wendy is Maxís niece. Daughter of the late Jim Hazelton.

First female captain at Tiger. Last I heard was in SE Asia on the Airbus.
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Old 8th May 2021, 08:11
  #1064 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PoppaJo View Post
Wendy is Maxís niece. Daughter of the late Jim Hazelton.

First female captain at Tiger. Last I heard was in SE Asia on the Airbus.
Muchas gracias.
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Old 8th May 2021, 10:43
  #1065 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by regional_flyer View Post
-PAG was chartered by the Brumbies to fly CBR-BNE, gotta offset those $39 fares somehow.
Some how I donít think they will offset their $39 fares. This would be a dirt cheap money loosing charter. Just trying to drum up future business. They could actually do ok put it I think.
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Old 8th May 2021, 11:17
  #1066 (permalink)  
 
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High-flying Hazelton hails Rex resurgence
...
By DAMON KITNEY

... This week Rex started a price war with its rivals, offering $39 trips between the two cities, less than the cost of a bus fare.

It sparked the biggest day of fare sales in Rex's history, generating 10 times its normal daily ticket revenues.

​​​​​​...
I doubt very much that that '10 times its normal daily ticket revenues' could be true.

Pre-pandemic, pre-jet fleet Rex's daily passenger revenue averaged around $763,000. The notion that they took in $7.6 million in fare sales in one day is very highly unlikely. That would have meant that their jet ops raised something like $6.9 million in fare sales in one day, the equivalent of over 175,000 $39 fares.

Even if you allow for a mix of fare prices, to hit that '10 times its normal daily ticket revenues' number would mean selling about 100,000 fares (50,000 return trips). That's the equivalent of them selling a return trip every 1.7 seconds constantly across a 24 hour period. That just doesn't seem likely.

Last edited by MickG0105; 8th May 2021 at 11:18. Reason: Formatting
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Old 9th May 2021, 09:21
  #1067 (permalink)  
 
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There is a massive difference between a single day of big revenues with the launch of loss making fares and maintaining that momentum over the medium term.
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Old 9th May 2021, 10:45
  #1068 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ollie Onion View Post
There is a massive difference between a single day of big revenues with the launch of loss making fares and maintaining that momentum over the medium term.
Absolutely. Rex is trying to play catch-up against two bigger gorillas with deep pockets. It's going to end in tears.

Of most concern for anyone associated with Rex is that they appear to be entirely bereft of anything even vaguely approaching a launch strategy. It was going to be nine return flights a day Sydney-Melbourne, followed by Brisbane. Instead we've got somewhere between three and six return flights a day between Sydney and Melbourne, and Adelaide and Gold Coast in the mix.

Gold Coast was only ever going to be a sugar hit during school holidays so now where are they? Playing a card that is guaranteed to lose money in the hope that it will eventually stop them losing money. It's like giving blood in the hope it will stop a critical haemorrhage.

Alan and Jayne must be loving this.
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Old 9th May 2021, 11:39
  #1069 (permalink)  
 
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I think they will do ok, QF will have massive losses with their international arm grounded untill 2023-2024 at least, how long can domestic carry those cost for?! VA well they’re not out of the woods yet. Don’t write Rex off just yet.
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Old 9th May 2021, 12:56
  #1070 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SHVC View Post
I think they will do ok, QF will have massive losses with their international arm grounded untill 2023-2024 at least, how long can domestic carry those cost for?!
QF Domestic has been carrying International for most of their post privitisation existence. A lot of government backed charters, travel bubbles will pop up over the next year or so providing work for 787s and 330s and then it's only really the 380s that'll be on the ground for a substantial time. Government providing wage subsidies and refresher training costs for international crew.

Domestic is always the money spinner, and fact is for Rex they can't make money if domestically they're barely carrying any pax....
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Old 9th May 2021, 19:45
  #1071 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SHVC View Post
I think they will do ok, QF will have massive losses with their international arm grounded untill 2023-2024 at least, how long can domestic carry those cost for?! VA well theyíre not out of the woods yet. Donít write Rex off just yet.
Not sure what QF international doing little work has to do with the survival or otherwise of Rex. Unless youíre implying Rex will outlast QF and fill their shoes similar to DJ / AN in 2001?
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Old 10th May 2021, 01:24
  #1072 (permalink)  
 
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Rex just announced that they expect a 'breakeven situation' for this FY
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Old 10th May 2021, 01:49
  #1073 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ladloy View Post
Rex just announced that they expect a 'breakeven situation' for this FY
Reading Rex media releases is akin to reading Chinese media
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Old 10th May 2021, 02:05
  #1074 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ladloy View Post
Rex just announced that they expect a 'breakeven situation' for this FY
I don't know who put that ASX announcement together but it is full of nonsense like this:

Rex’s cash position has improved exponentially. Without counting the cash injection of $50
million from the convertible note issued to PAG (out of a maximum of $150 million), Rex’s
unencumbered cash reserves increased by 1,000% compared to March 2020 due to the very
strong advanced bookings on its five new domestic and two new regional routes. Rex expects
this to improve further as more routes are introduced.
Monies received from ticket sales are not unencumbered, they are covered off on a dollar for dollar basis as Unearned Revenue under Current Liabilities.

It's worth noting that breaking even would likely mean that their jet ops is losing around $3 million a month, back of the napkin.

Last edited by MickG0105; 10th May 2021 at 02:17. Reason: Estimate adjusted
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Old 10th May 2021, 02:07
  #1075 (permalink)  
 
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I dunno,

How do you make a small fortune in the Airline business?
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Old 10th May 2021, 02:39
  #1076 (permalink)  
 
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I hope Rex aren't deliberately misleading the ASX......
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Old 10th May 2021, 03:13
  #1077 (permalink)  
 
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Ah yes, the old "we're not making any profit but we have plenty of cash" now where have I heard that before. I tell you, you could not make this 5hit up
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Old 10th May 2021, 03:43
  #1078 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat View Post
I hope Rex aren't deliberately misleading the ASX......
They're certainly being highly selective. Take the statement that they have improved their cash position by 1000 percent since March 2020 for example. The first thing to note is that 1000 percent of, or ten times, nothing is still nothing. Those who have been following along at home will remember that in March last year Rex were making media statements saying that cash was fast running out.

Their cash position as at March 2020 would likely have not exceeded around $3 - 4 million, if that. So now they might have $30-odd million in cash for forward ticket sales. That number means jot if it will cost them $50 million to operate the flights to satisfy those sales. There's the rub.

Separately, I'd be interested in how effective Rex's hedge book is - fuel prices are not going to be kind to them. Back of the napkin, even at $79 a ticket they need something like 40 pax on a Sydney-Melbourne flight just to cover the fuel (at $39 they effectively need a full aircraft just to cover fuel). I don't think that they are routinely hitting that number. When you add lease costs, wages and maintenance the numbers become diabolical.
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Old 10th May 2021, 04:12
  #1079 (permalink)  
 
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So according to the Rex ASX statement,

- “..overall regional demand is back to 60% of pre COVID levels”,

- “..so regional capacity is therefore 35% of what it was pre COVID”

- .“Rex’s regional operations appear to be slightly loss making..”

- but “Rex’s cash position has improved exponentially”

So Rex expects to finish the FY in a “break even situation”.

So the cash position has improved exponentially from just 5 new domestic and 2 new regional routes?

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Old 10th May 2021, 06:32
  #1080 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
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I hope REX survive for the foreseeable future as I have friends that got gigs with them that otherwise would have gone to the wall! Watching their share price trend downward is concerning -(
its an ugly industry these days full of uncertainty, I wish all employees luck-)
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