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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

Old 10th Apr 2021, 08:39
  #901 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: NSW
Posts: 99
Originally Posted by KRUSTY 34 View Post
Give it time.

Those numbers will change.

...up or down?
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 00:47
  #902 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 590
Originally Posted by PoppaJo View Post
The demand is currently alive and well. Iíve been full for quite a while now. Oversold on many. We are not selling our arses off either for next to nothing.

The issue here is they canít stimulate demand from what is ultra low fares.

The only other startup Iíve heard about with similar load issues was Ozjet.
Ah yes, Ozjet. Let's just say that they had an "interesting" business model; a few 732s in a 60 seat (15 rows of 2 - 2) all business class configuration. Expecting to pick J class pax up off QF and VA was very much pie in the sky. They lasted about 14 weeks from memory.
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 01:10
  #903 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Location: Perth
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Originally Posted by MickG0105 View Post
Ah yes, Ozjet. Let's just say that they had an "interesting" business model
The plan was the flights would operate similar to a `Bus service` for J Class day commuters between MEL/SYD and vice versa at Y Class pricing. Essentially a schedule with no hard and fast 'flight closed' times for J Pax to hop on at the last minute, with carry-on only, if they were running late.

It was never going to last though.
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 04:33
  #904 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 590
Originally Posted by TheRealGeoffThomas View Post
The plan was the flights would operate similar to a `Bus service` for J Class day commuters between MEL/SYD and vice versa at Y Class pricing. Essentially a schedule with no hard and fast 'flight closed' times for J Pax to hop on at the last minute, with carry-on only, if they were running late.

It was never going to last though.
Yes, thanks Geoff, I was aware of their approach - notional 15 minute check in and up to 20 kg of carry on.

Blind Freddy could see that while that product might suit many business passengers, in order to poach said pax from QF and VA a lot of pre-launch spade work was going to be required. They need to get the businesses that were paying for the flights to sign up - a very significant matter that they didn't address.

The other big issue for biz pax was flight frequency - a little difficult to achieve with only a handful of jets.

And of course launching a product pitched at business two weeks before Christmas holidays was always going to be problematic - that hiatus was always going to punch a smoking hole in cash flows.

Separately, before the well let's just call it "correspondence" begins, may I salute your "courage" in wading into the prruner pool.
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 05:30
  #905 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 353
Originally Posted by TheRealGeoffThomas View Post
The plan was the flights would operate similar to a `Bus service` for J Class day commuters between MEL/SYD and vice versa at Y Class pricing. Essentially a schedule with no hard and fast 'flight closed' times for J Pax to hop on at the last minute, with carry-on only, if they were running late.

It was never going to last though.
It was not set up for success ut at least they tried something different. REX hasn't even done that; they have nothing compellingly different about their product so end up with price as their only driver and that is not a way to long-term success unless you have gone down a ULCC model. They are sort of morphing into the new Tiger as the flip onto leisure routes and that is reasonable but they need to strip out costs further if they are going to continue this and give up on pointless triangle services where they have neither the product or frequency to be compelling and move onto other leisure routes such as CNS, MCY, PPP etc.
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 22:04
  #906 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Asia
Posts: 1,030
Yesterday busiest day yet. LF 90%+

3000 passengers VA and QF didnít get anyway. Which is why they want them out.
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 22:16
  #907 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
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Originally Posted by wheels_down View Post
Yesterday busiest day yet. LF 90%+

3000 passengers VA and QF didn’t get anyway. Which is why they want them out.
What's the source of that "data" please?

Last edited by MickG0105; 11th Apr 2021 at 23:13. Reason: Missed courtesy
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 22:52
  #908 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 153
Originally Posted by wheels_down View Post
Yesterday busiest day yet. LF 90%+
3000 passengers VA and QF didnít get anyway. Which is why they want them out.
Across how many flights? Those figures would suggest that only 18 or 19 flights were operated.
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Old 11th Apr 2021, 23:22
  #909 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
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Originally Posted by C441 View Post
Across how many flights? Those figures would suggest that only 18 or 19 flights were operated.
A Q&D tally of Rex services yesterday shows 24 flights, 12 of those were SYD-MEL and return. So that's total capacity of 4,224 seats (4,032 economy). 90+ percent load factor would be over 3,800 pax outright, 3,630 if you're just looking at Y.

I can understand the handful of OOL-SYD/MEL flights running at high load factors given that was the middle weekend of two weeks of school holidays but SYD-MEL, which constituted half of the capacity?
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 00:29
  #910 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Asia
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SYD-OOL this morning. 150
MEL-OOL this morning. 140

Adelaide 140s yesterday

All flights after 6pm last night 160 and above.
​​​​​​​
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 00:31
  #911 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Oz
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Looks like they will do better in places like OOL. The last couple of times at Cooly we parked alongside we played count the pax and was at least 150 in and out.

That was the first market Tiger went into when they kicked off.

Will be interesting should they try and muscle into CNS. Peak season is nearly here. Tiger had 2000 seats daily in that market not too long ago.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 00:38
  #912 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 590
Originally Posted by wheels_down View Post
All flights after 6pm last night 160 and above.
​​​​​​​All four of them?
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 01:18
  #913 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 799
Load factor is irrelevant.

You can have 160 pax and still not be able to pay the bills.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 01:23
  #914 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Asia
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To ensure a more balanced approach. Perhaps replace the 6am triangle runs with a Gold Coast run.

Today
ML-SY 60
SY-ML 60
ML-SY 120
SY-ML 120
OOL-SY 140

You can have 160 pax and still not be able to pay the bills.
I would say at the moment the focus for ZL is probably just getting bums on seats which has been the issue of recent weeks. Better than running all flights at 20 heads I guess.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 01:28
  #915 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 353
Originally Posted by wheels_down View Post
SYD-OOL this morning. 150
MEL-OOL this morning. 140

Adelaide 140s yesterday

All flights after 6pm last night 160 and above.
You'd expect all day time flights to OOL to be nearly full during school holidays. It will be more interesting to see what the situation is in a couple of weeks. There is no doubt the MEL-SYD flights are a disaster with no obvious way that this can be overcome. BNE-SYD and BNE-MEL just can't happen at this stage. They may have a future of sorts as a leisure airline though this will depend on loads outside of school holidays and require the opening up more ports such as CNS, PPP, DRW and BME.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 01:33
  #916 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Asia
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Triangle they need to target peak leisure times. Pull back during the week and go harder on Friday and Sunday.

They really need to get into Cairns and Darwin this peak season. When do the next machines arrive? Jetstar are 6 Daily ML/SY during peak season to Cairns largely A321. Get in on it.

Early signs here that they need to be going after the Tiger share. A Triangle route can complement that however keep it smaller. Leave the suits to the other two.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 02:07
  #917 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 353
I agree that they are morphing into Tiger even down to the elderly 737s. The problem is Jetstar, Qantas and Virgin are all aggressively competing now on leisure routes so a lot of the Tiger share may have already gone unless REX is prepared to take themselves down-market and become a true ULCC positioned below Jetstar.

This would mean they will be more like Spirit in the US, or Ryanair in Europe with a very no-frills operation. The virtually pointless existing J class offering would be removed and the density increased to a 28" pitch. Gates leased from airports would also change with no airbridges required. They would need to gird their loins to withstand the inevitable ACA segment complaining that nothing is included and delays are not recompensed with accommodation, meal vouchers etc even though this was clearly stated when the ultra-cheap ticket was sold.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 02:38
  #918 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2021
Location: Perth
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Originally Posted by MickG0105 View Post
Separately, before the well let's just call it "correspondence" begins, may I salute your "courage" in wading into the prruner pool.
Thanks for the kind words Mick.

Best, GT
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 08:41
  #919 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Brisbane Australia
Posts: 518
I wonder how they will fair when overseas travel opens up and people choose to holiday overseas?
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 08:50
  #920 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Oz
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Originally Posted by EPIRB View Post
I wonder how they will fair when overseas travel opens up and people choose to holiday overseas?
Replaced by the onslaught of Chinese tourists.
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