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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

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Old 13th Jul 2022, 04:39
  #2121 (permalink)  
 
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The test is next week when all holidays come to a end. Another 8 week run until the next bumper holiday period. Perhaps they should be one of those euro like Holiday airlines. They have the cheap fleet to keep a minimal schedule during the off season.

But hey, your right, you could make a business at the moment just servicing Virgin’s cancelled flights alone which is off the charts at the moment
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Old 13th Jul 2022, 04:58
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How are the saab drivers going with their PIA? Havent heard zilch...
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Old 13th Jul 2022, 05:54
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Rex trading halted on the ASX? What's going on here?
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Old 13th Jul 2022, 06:02
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Rex to buy cobhams FIFO ?
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Old 13th Jul 2022, 07:54
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Article in the review yesterday they were in the top running, PAG was willing to finance trading was halted and an announcement followed. They seem very keen on the FIFO contract. Announcement acknowledged the article but no offer was made, let’s see.

as for their loads, well if they don’t even have half full during holiday periods then they never will SY has been full line ups for coffee are insane and security just as bad. If their loads fall back to 10-50 like before peak then they’re just the airline ppl book when the others are full.
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Old 13th Jul 2022, 13:30
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From the Australian:

Regional Express is set to announce the purchase of Cobham Aviation’s fly-in fly-out airline business as soon as Friday. Rex shares were placed in a trading halt on Wednesday ahead of a likely announcement later this week. The stock last traded at $1.22 and has fallen about 13 per cent this year. Cobham’s FIFO business accounts for just under 20 per cent of the Australian market for transporting miners and gas workers to sites across the nation. The dominant player in the FIFO space is Qantas, combined with Alliance Aviation. Qantas currently owns 20 per cent of Alliance and is seeking regulatory permission to buy the outstanding shares. Together, the two account for about 70 per cent of the market. Virgin Australia accounts for about five per cent of the FIFO market through its VARA unit. For Rex, this purchase gives it a clear scope and direction. During Covid-19, the regional airline declared it would seek a bigger share of domestic city routes but directly taking on incumbents Qantas and Virgin was always going to be a challenge. Rex is not entirely giving up on that dream, but through the purchase of Cobham, it is able to carve out a big chunk of the high-yielding FIFO market, giving it a strong point of difference from some of its competitors. It is believed Cobham’s FIFO business had revenues of between $130-$150m last year, about half of Rex’s normal revenue in a non-pandemic year. The purchase price would likely be under $100m. David Porter, Macquarie Capital’s head of infrastructure, is advising on the sale of Cobham’s FIFO business and its other assets. Rex and Singaporean investor Lim Kim Hai, the airline’s chairman, will each fund half the acquisition, resulting in a joint venture arrangement. The Cobham FIFO unit, trading as National Jet Express, operates out of Perth, where it has its own terminal facilities, along with Adelaide. It also provides freight services in Melbourne, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sydney and Adelaide. Rex is Australia’s largest regional airline, with six Boeing 737-800s and 60 Saab 340s. Through the acquisition of the Cobham unit, it will also have eight Bombardier Q400s and six Embraer E190s. A Rex spokesman declined to comment. The FIFO market is attractive to domestic airlines because it is often more profitable than metropolitan routes, excluding Sydney to Melbourne. In May, Qantas offered more than $600m in an all-scrip deal for the shares it does not already own in Alliance. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission is due to hand down its findings on that takeover as early as next month. The ACCC noted at the time of the takeover announcement Qantas and Alliance overlapped in the supply of charter services to corporate clients and also for regular passenger transport. It took the ACCC several years to approve – after the event – Qantas’s purchase of the 19.9 per cent initial stake. It’s expected that Rex and Virgin – which has FIFO contracts with Alliance – will have both made submissions on the takeover.
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Old 14th Jul 2022, 01:40
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Originally Posted by Deano969
Just looking through some curfew dispensation reports, noticed a couple of REX flights
27 Feb ZL390 SYD-BNE 156 on board
18 March ZL6437 MEL-SYD 147 on board
18 March ZL6437 Coffs-SYD 27 on board SAAB

These don't reflect the single digit to low double digit loads being touted about on here, yes it's just 2 flights, but from what's being posted regularly you would be under the impression that REX are struggling to get to 1/4 full on every flight

https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/si...ort_3_2022.pdf


And herein lies the problem.

These three flights averaged 110 punters. Based on a 180 seat aircraft that's a load factor of 61% and I would be surprised if that was anywhere near break even much less making any money although I don't have access to that data.

So even if REX have several flights with good loads it only takes one or two low double digit flights to undo any gains made.
I just don't see the numbers adding up at this stage.

Fly safe and play hard.

Cheers Hoss
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Old 14th Jul 2022, 01:55
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Originally Posted by hoss58
And herein lies the problem.

These three flights averaged 110 punters. Based on a 180 seat aircraft that's a load factor of 61% and I would be surprised if that was anywhere near break even much less making any money although I don't have access to that data.

So even if REX have several flights with good loads it only takes one or two low double digit flights to undo any gains made.
I just don't see the numbers adding up at this stage.

Fly safe and play hard.

Cheers Hoss
Your math is flawed
The average of the 2 x 737 flights listed is 151.5
The third flight was Coffs to SYD (SAAB)

Further
REX's 737s are not 180 seats, try 174
So closer to 88% on the 2 mentioned flights
27 out of 34 for the SAAB 80%

I realize that these are just 3 flights however, I am yet to see any posted figures here or anywhere else, just random guesses here and there
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Old 14th Jul 2022, 08:10
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Originally Posted by Deano969
Your math is flawed
The average of the 2 x 737 flights listed is 151.5
The third flight was Coffs to SYD (SAAB)

Further
REX's 737s are not 180 seats, try 174
So closer to 88% on the 2 mentioned flights
27 out of 34 for the SAAB 80%

I realize that these are just 3 flights however, I am yet to see any posted figures here or anywhere else, just random guesses here and there
Spoke to somebody this morning who did the ool-mel flight with Rex yesterday & said was almost if not full.
She commented on the great service & how the crew were so friendly.
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Old 14th Jul 2022, 08:22
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Originally Posted by Deano969
Your math is flawed


Further
REX's 737s are not 180 seats, try 174
176; 8 J, 168 Y.

Originally Posted by Deano969
I realize that these are just 3 flights however, I am yet to see any posted figures here or anywhere else, just random guesses here and there
PoppaJo has regularly posted reliable data on the load factors for Rex's jets.

The Australian newspaper carried out a fairly detailed review of 35 Rex jet flights between Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne and the Gold Coast between 29 May - 2 June inclusive. The average load was 56 pax (as few as 7 on one SYD-OOL flight, a high of 113 on a MEL-BNE flight). Average load factor was 32 percent. Notably Rex didn't dispute the numbers when they were put to them.

Last edited by MickG0105; 14th Jul 2022 at 11:44. Reason: Typo
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Old 14th Jul 2022, 09:40
  #2131 (permalink)  
 
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Everything looks full this week. Holidays, sports, cancelled flights from the others, if you could strap people to the wings you would probably get takers. That’s how tough it is to get a seat at the moment. Some routes are still no seats until mid next week. Reports of some people getting creative travelling via Asia to get to a domestic port for a urgent event.

As I said, come back next week when the all this demand tapers away.






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Old 14th Jul 2022, 23:57
  #2132 (permalink)  
 
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Rex has acquired the part of Cobham. To those working in that business fight the good fight. Your wages will be the first thing they go for.
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Old 15th Jul 2022, 01:20
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Party funded by PAG, so now gives them an exit option for its 737 adventure. Simply move it out west and sign some new contracts. It’s a no brainer really. Why burn money for eternity on the east coast when one can get guaranteed revenue out west.
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Old 15th Jul 2022, 01:47
  #2134 (permalink)  
 
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Or you could take it that PAG is happy with current progress and has deep pockets and there is more to come... When it comes to long term strategies, footholds, even loss making are just ledges to settle down and get the product right, some call it launch pads, ie establish, consolidate, assess, and then push hard for market share when the timing and product is right.
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Old 15th Jul 2022, 01:59
  #2135 (permalink)  
 
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Where does LKH get this! “Crying out” haha please show me a quote from a mining companies for that please! does he realize he will be carting around ppl that dig big big holes and destruct the environment. I don’t think these companies care what jets are operated just as long as they turn up on time.

“I believe that NJE’s modern aircraft fleet and its long-term customer relationships overlayed with Rex’s proven record of safety, reliability and cost efficiencies would propel NJE to be the premier FIFO operator in Australia. NJE will naturally be the partner of choice for resource companies all over Australia who have been crying out for so long for a FIFO provider that is able to address their triple priorities of minimal impact on the environment, comfort and safety of its staff and reliability of service.”
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Old 15th Jul 2022, 02:01
  #2136 (permalink)  
 
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You'll always get corporate spin of why they are best... That's not surprising, its a speech with marketing firmly in mind.
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Old 15th Jul 2022, 04:04
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Does this include the BAE-146 freight operations?

The ASX press release mentions freight operations, but no mention of the BAE-146.

The Ansett syndrome at REX group, B737, Saab 340, Dash8 -400, E190, Bae-146, Beech 200, Beech 350, Pilatus PC-24 and various Piper training aircraft.
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Old 15th Jul 2022, 05:12
  #2138 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 43Inches
Or you could take it that PAG is happy with current progress and has deep pockets and there is more to come...
PAG haven't put up any more money for this. They have allowed Rex to draw down something like $15 million from the $75 million that remains undrawn from the 2021 $150 million convertible note facility, with Rex contributing around $9 million from 'its own cash resources'. You can possibly read something into the fact that the NJS acquisition is being 50 percent funded by a group of JV partners headed by LKH. Apart from anything else the deal seems to be structured around keeping Rex's balance sheet above water.
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Old 15th Jul 2022, 05:15
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Originally Posted by Stationair8
Does this include the BAE-146 freight operations?

The ASX press release mentions freight operations, but no mention of the BAE-146.

The Ansett syndrome at REX group, B737, Saab 340, Dash8 -400, E190, Bae-146, Beech 200, Beech 350, Pilatus PC-24 and various Piper training aircraft.
Very astute post and spot on. Has John Sharp been drinking Sir Peter Abele’s Koolaid? Multi aircraft types for an airline as small as REX raises the risks stake. I would assume that there is a strong business case for the purchase. Considering how the 737 startup decision has thus far been a failure, I hope REX used a different risk matrix this time!

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Old 15th Jul 2022, 06:01
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The freight carried in the BAE-146, is that for Qantas on behalf of Australia post?

So who will REX buy next, AirNorth?

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