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The true number of displaced (redundant) pilots

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The true number of displaced (redundant) pilots

Old 27th Jun 2020, 09:42
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
Putting my head on a chopping block here but it is possible that in two to three years time, having lost pilots to early retirement and lost some back to their old industry or profession, coupled with very little training for CPL or ATPL guys due no incentive of jobs, we will face a GREATER pilot shortage than that which existed at the close of 2019. I know it sounds like a very positive few but depending on the return to international travel it is one possible outcome. I mean who is going to consider starting pilot training now with a view to CPL? Older guys that may have had another 2-4 years to go may be taken out of the pool early.
One of the most logical thinking post in a while.
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 09:43
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chad Gates View Post
Fuji. That 165 you say have expressed an interest, is that for VR? Has something been comunicated to guys who are elidgable? If so, that's a great start.
Nothing official yet. Iím told a few weeks away from VR EOI with the conditions attached.

As Dr Dre mentioned..thereís plenty of thinking to do for many of the older guys / gals. Take a VR now and retire happily or remain stood down indefinitely and be forced to leave come 65.

But yes 165 was the figure going around the group on Friday afternoon who had.
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 09:51
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fujiroll76 View Post
Nothing official yet. Iím told a few weeks away from VR EOI with the conditions attached.

As Dr Dre mentioned..thereís plenty of thinking to do for many of the older guys / gals. Take a VR now and retire happily or remain stood down indefinitely and be forced to leave come 65.

But yes 165 was the figure going around the group on Friday afternoon who had.
Wow, if thatís true, way to shoot yourself in the foot! Iím hoping this is a false rumour. Otherwise the management will look at 165 pilots falling over themselves to take VR and think, if these are the pilots who couldnít wait to ask for VR, how many more will we get? Better halve that VR payment because we only want 190 applicants for 190 positions, not 400 applicants for 190 positions.

Dumbest smart guys in the room.
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 09:54
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
Putting my head on a chopping block here but it is possible that in two to three years time, having lost pilots to early retirement and lost some back to their old industry or profession, coupled with very little training for CPL or ATPL guys due no incentive of jobs, we will face a GREATER pilot shortage than that which existed at the close of 2019. I know it sounds like a very positive few but depending on the return to international travel it is one possible outcome. I mean who is going to consider starting pilot training now with a view to CPL? Older guys that may have had another 2-4 years to go may be taken out of the pool early.
There was never a pilot shortage in Australia
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 10:03
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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Putting my head on a chopping block here but it is possible that in two to three years time, having lost pilots to early retirement and lost some back to their old industry or profession, coupled with very little training for CPL or ATPL guys due no incentive of jobs, we will face a GREATER pilot shortage than that which existed at the close of 2019. I know it sounds like a very positive few but depending on the return to international travel it is one possible outcome. I mean who is going to consider starting pilot training now with a view to CPL? Older guys that may have had another 2-4 years to go may be taken out of the pool early.
I would agree but probably more of a 5+ year time frame. Long enough for more retirements compounded with the lack of training additional to those who have left the industry due lack of work.

With modern aircraft being very easy to fly and the over reliance on automation, ex airline pilots have really struggled to adapt back to the complexity of operating light aircraft as a single pilot and many just don't make the cut.
Since when??? Noone has gone back to GA since 2001.
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 10:13
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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There was never a pilot shortage in Australia
Well we can play semantics but however you want to characterise the fact that guys were going from a piston twin to RHS jet without the traditional turboprop stage. My company (and others) is recruiting pilots with hours and type experience that would not have got them an interview ten years ago.
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 10:42
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
Putting my head on a chopping block here but it is possible that in two to three years time, having lost pilots to early retirement and lost some back to their old industry or profession, coupled with very little training for CPL or ATPL guys due no incentive of jobs, we will face a GREATER pilot shortage than that which existed at the close of 2019. I know it sounds like a very positive few but depending on the return to international travel it is one possible outcome. I mean who is going to consider starting pilot training now with a view to CPL? Older guys that may have had another 2-4 years to go may be taken out of the pool early.
I think there will be oversupply for most of this decade, will also be a wave of returning expats who have also been laid off right over the world, many are already back here.

I know a few who have gone back to GA in order to pay bills and stay in the industry. They are aware that they are joining the progression ladder again and will earn a quarter of their Airbus or Boeing salary for the next 5-10 years. On the flip side you have GA pilots who have been laid off, and I know some who have gone for other GA jobs but have lost out to a Tiger pilot etc. These guys are young, starting families, most will end up just walking away.

Self funding CPLs will be non existent in the not too far future. A operator up north in the medium/long term trying to find a Darwin or Cairns trained CPL IFR Pilot will need to look elsewhere and spend more on localised training. Those sort of CVs were highly regarded back in my day and at the top of the pile when we were sifting through applicants to interview. We had the luxury of being specific on what type of CV we wanted. Now the pile is largely 200 hour hopefuls from down south, with some questionable training operators behind them.

I have no idea how operators expect to even find quality or suitable applicants in the long term (15-20 year mark). Iíve had this debate with senior managers within my operator about medium to long term hiring plans, and having been apart of working groups on the topic in the past, the only solution managers have is increasing the companyís leverage in the cadet business. These guys are the check and trainers of the future.
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 11:22
  #28 (permalink)  
swh

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Originally Posted by Climb150 View Post
There was never a pilot shortage in Australia
A wise person once said the pilots stood tall, the manager was short.
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 13:13
  #29 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Compylot View Post
I think you'll find that Airline pilots aren't particularly sought after for GA gigs even if they might of done it in a past life.

With modern aircraft being very easy to fly and the over reliance on automation, ex airline pilots have really struggled to adapt back to the complexity of operating light aircraft as a single pilot and many just don't make the cut.

Flying a heavy single or turbocharged piston twin is a strenuous exercise and sadly years of watching the autopilot have rendered most Airline pilots incapable of managing such aircraft again.
Why don't you commence a sermon with respect to the negatives of shock cooling on descent. Or perhaps pontificate about how to make a CTAF call to your exacting personal standards. Must be hard work carrying that chip around everywhere.
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 13:44
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Why don't you commence a sermon with respect to the negatives of shock cooling on descent. Or perhaps pontificate about how to make a CTAF call to your exacting personal standards. Must be hard work carrying that chip around everywhere.

Well put indeed. I remember going through that rubbish years ago. I had been retrenched from airline flying and was interviewed for a job flying an MU2. The then chief pilot gave me the bum's rush saying I wouldn't be able able to handle single pilot IFR and in any case would expect too much in terms of aircraft serviceability. In other words he wanted a clean maintenance release from his pilots.
I made the point that having flown Mustangs in the RAAF single pilot IFR including formation flying in cloud I figured I could cope in IMC without an autopilot. . I didn't get the job.

Two years later I was re-hired by my former airline back on the 737. Guess who was my first copilot? It was the MU2 chief honcho who had interviewed me two years earlier.

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Old 27th Jun 2020, 14:04
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Compylot View Post
I think you'll find that Airline pilots aren't particularly sought after for GA gigs even if they might of done it in a past life.

With modern aircraft being very easy to fly and the over reliance on automation, ex airline pilots have really struggled to adapt back to the complexity of operating light aircraft as a single pilot and many just don't make the cut.

Flying a heavy single or turbocharged piston twin is a strenuous exercise and sadly years of watching the autopilot have rendered most Airline pilots incapable of managing such aircraft again.
hahahaha.

10/10, solid troll.
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 14:16
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Lay offs

You have to ask how many have got themselves in so deep financially that they have opted out of this life?
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 21:59
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Compylot View Post
I think you'll find that Airline pilots aren't particularly sought after for GA gigs even if they might of done it in a past life.

With modern aircraft being very easy to fly and the over reliance on automation, ex airline pilots have really struggled to adapt back to the complexity of operating light aircraft as a single pilot and many just don't make the cut.

Flying a heavy single or turbocharged piston twin is a strenuous exercise and sadly years of watching the autopilot have rendered most Airline pilots incapable of managing such aircraft again.
What a chump statement.. its sweaty and less well paid but GA flying is very achievable and slow compared to high intensity jet passenger transport flight ops

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Old 27th Jun 2020, 22:12
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by runway16 View Post
You have to ask how many have got themselves in so deep financially that they have opted out of this life?
Very valid question.

The mining downturn in WA a few years ago left a few people financially exposed after the rug was unexpectedly pulled from beneath them.

I donít believe that many will go back to GA unless they have just come out of it or they have a good relationship with a GA operator, and arenít in debit up to their eyeballs.

Iím a casualty of this mess, stood down until further notice. I donít think I will ever return to the airline due to obvious reasons.
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 22:18
  #35 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
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If Iím let go, I wonít go back to GA, been there done that sacrificed more than my share. We are settled love where we live we wonít be uprooting for a shi!!y GA job on a Baron again. Iíll find something else maybe even Something Monday to Friday Iíll get to go to all the football games on the weekend. Life will go on without Aviation.

Come Tuesday slot of questions might be answered for Aviation. Borders to open or remain closed.
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 22:20
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cloudsurfng View Post
A heavy single?

Pretty much every GA piston twin, with a failed engine - empty or full, they tend to be a tad heavy to climb.
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Old 27th Jun 2020, 23:01
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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Is the pay still sh1t in GA? No thanks. I would rather do time as a driving instructor than a flying instructor. Terms, conditions and pay twice as good.
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Old 28th Jun 2020, 02:23
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Compylot View Post
I think you'll find that Airline pilots aren't particularly sought after for GA gigs even if they might of done it in a past life.

With modern aircraft being very easy to fly and the over reliance on automation, ex airline pilots have really struggled to adapt back to the complexity of operating light aircraft as a single pilot and many just don't make the cut.

Flying a heavy single or turbocharged piston twin is a strenuous exercise and sadly years of watching the autopilot have rendered most Airline pilots incapable of managing such aircraft again.
I think I know what you are getting at, maybe it could have been worded better though. People with the right attitude and some level of flying skill will always do well in GA or anywhere else. Turn up with the wrong attitude and expecting the same working conditions and wage we have all been accustomed to in an air conditioned jet (with HEPA filters of course!) and GA will spit you out, just like any job right now. And it works the other way, GA turning up at an RPT airline gig. Good luck all
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Old 28th Jun 2020, 03:33
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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People with the right attitude and some level of flying skill will always do well in GA or anywhere else. Turn up with the wrong attitude and expecting the same working conditions and wage we have all been accustomed to in an air conditioned jet (with HEPA filters of course!) and GA will spit you out, just like any job right now
The 'Right Attitude' in GA is very open to interpretation. Some of the worst pilots I have ever seen had the 'right attitude'.
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Old 28th Jun 2020, 03:45
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Compylot View Post
I think you'll find that Airline pilots aren't particularly sought after for GA gigs even if they might of done it in a past life.

With modern aircraft being very easy to fly and the over reliance on automation, ex airline pilots have really struggled to adapt back to the complexity of operating light aircraft as a single pilot and many just don't make the cut.

Flying a heavy single or turbocharged piston twin is a strenuous exercise and sadly years of watching the autopilot have rendered most Airline pilots incapable of managing such aircraft again.

Ha! That gave me a real chuckle.
I had 3500 hours in GA , from a C206 to a Citation and more in between, before I landed an airline job. I could downtrain in a heartbeat if I had to.
But hereís the thing.......Iíd rather poke my eye out with on HB pencil than go back to GA. A mate of mine makes more as a heavy vehicle instructor than I ever did in GA.
Most of us who have managed to keep wife no.1 and avoided all those wacko investment opportunities over the journey will simply take the package and fade into the distance.
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