QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages
Not really.
As a lot of people have now quite correctly predicted, CR will not be required, so any issue with a potential SH redundancy is avoided.
Enough have taken VR or will take early retirement or LWOP to reduce numbers to the forecast 2022/23 levels so no further redundancies needed. Remaining crew will be stood down until they are needed.
There’ll still be a RIN needed for any 747 crew who didn’t take VR or ER, but the training out of that will be well into the future.
As a lot of people have now quite correctly predicted, CR will not be required, so any issue with a potential SH redundancy is avoided.
Enough have taken VR or will take early retirement or LWOP to reduce numbers to the forecast 2022/23 levels so no further redundancies needed. Remaining crew will be stood down until they are needed.
There’ll still be a RIN needed for any 747 crew who didn’t take VR or ER, but the training out of that will be well into the future.
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Safe from CR ?
My goodness what are you guys smoking ? You don't have an industry atm & you got an 8% take up
Did you ever believe that very strange & interesting number of a surplus of 190 , that was bandied about months ago , it was a ridiculous number
would love to see the reasoning & the calcs behind that one. Likely many of the applicants were just about to retire & looking for a payday - no guarantee their app will be accepted
The one factor they forgot to take into account it would seem is Covid 19 - who actually did this calc and what were the assumptions made in that calc
Because it's either someone being a bit tricky or someone who has zero concept - "global aviation has ceased so that means we now have a critical surplus of 10%"
Or maybe just an ambit figure , deliberately a low-ball figure , sort of let's not let it out of the bag how diabolically bad things are right now.
You have approx 1500 LH pilots & you do not have a LH business , it has ceased completely & won't be back for years. How could you even begin to
measure the surplus there , but clearly it is at least 500 and the more hawkish managers would argue for a 50% cut
& you have approx 800 SH pilots & a skeleton service running at less than 5 % & it won't be back in any size for at least another year , so a couple of hundred there
also go
Standown's won't continue indefinitely that is why your managers have been pointing out to you that if you chose to take
lwop they will exercise their discretion & bypass you on CR. And why they have also cautioned you that if you are CR'd well
don't expect to stroll back on the premises like you own it , they may well require you to re-do selection
One guy said before if you take lwop the company washes their hands of you , not true you are still an employee. It is when you take VR or are CR'd
you are that occurs
Lots of stories here trying to promulgate the horrors of a return from lwop & all these horrible things that might occur to you. Very unlikely based on
how lwop (& there have been hundreds) have worked to date. I think the true nightmare would be waiting for re-employment as a CR , when QF opens to
externals again which you might be thinking is 2030
What is interesting is the looking down nose tone at people who are considering lwop , words used such as "jumping over" those more senior to you. That there
is something unethical or immoral about taking it. Do the joiners from early 2000s to GFC expect those who joined after 2016 to be the sacrificial lambs for them
- is that sort of the "honourable" thing to do ? Some kind of band of brothers , who are all noblemen
Stories abound about the four engine guys demanding to displace people on the other WB fleets - is that the act of a nobleman ?
CR is coming & the variable is the % , I think the % will be between 25 & 40% , primarily from the bottom of list , but with a
bit of fiddling around the edges , SH don't escape & some by base/fleet. Likely a more targeted VR will be offered again before end of year before CR
, smallish sweets added for targeted demographics
Anyone planning on banking two years of pay via CR , it aint gonna happen , they won't want to go much over 50 weeks pay , that keeps it to joiners this century
Out from me on this matter , both the naivety and hubris on display really quite incredible
& goodluck to all certainly a tough situation
My goodness what are you guys smoking ? You don't have an industry atm & you got an 8% take up
Did you ever believe that very strange & interesting number of a surplus of 190 , that was bandied about months ago , it was a ridiculous number
would love to see the reasoning & the calcs behind that one. Likely many of the applicants were just about to retire & looking for a payday - no guarantee their app will be accepted
The one factor they forgot to take into account it would seem is Covid 19 - who actually did this calc and what were the assumptions made in that calc
Because it's either someone being a bit tricky or someone who has zero concept - "global aviation has ceased so that means we now have a critical surplus of 10%"
Or maybe just an ambit figure , deliberately a low-ball figure , sort of let's not let it out of the bag how diabolically bad things are right now.
You have approx 1500 LH pilots & you do not have a LH business , it has ceased completely & won't be back for years. How could you even begin to
measure the surplus there , but clearly it is at least 500 and the more hawkish managers would argue for a 50% cut
& you have approx 800 SH pilots & a skeleton service running at less than 5 % & it won't be back in any size for at least another year , so a couple of hundred there
also go
Standown's won't continue indefinitely that is why your managers have been pointing out to you that if you chose to take
lwop they will exercise their discretion & bypass you on CR. And why they have also cautioned you that if you are CR'd well
don't expect to stroll back on the premises like you own it , they may well require you to re-do selection
One guy said before if you take lwop the company washes their hands of you , not true you are still an employee. It is when you take VR or are CR'd
you are that occurs
Lots of stories here trying to promulgate the horrors of a return from lwop & all these horrible things that might occur to you. Very unlikely based on
how lwop (& there have been hundreds) have worked to date. I think the true nightmare would be waiting for re-employment as a CR , when QF opens to
externals again which you might be thinking is 2030
What is interesting is the looking down nose tone at people who are considering lwop , words used such as "jumping over" those more senior to you. That there
is something unethical or immoral about taking it. Do the joiners from early 2000s to GFC expect those who joined after 2016 to be the sacrificial lambs for them
- is that sort of the "honourable" thing to do ? Some kind of band of brothers , who are all noblemen
Stories abound about the four engine guys demanding to displace people on the other WB fleets - is that the act of a nobleman ?
CR is coming & the variable is the % , I think the % will be between 25 & 40% , primarily from the bottom of list , but with a
bit of fiddling around the edges , SH don't escape & some by base/fleet. Likely a more targeted VR will be offered again before end of year before CR
, smallish sweets added for targeted demographics
Anyone planning on banking two years of pay via CR , it aint gonna happen , they won't want to go much over 50 weeks pay , that keeps it to joiners this century
Out from me on this matter , both the naivety and hubris on display really quite incredible
& goodluck to all certainly a tough situation
Last edited by Telfer86; 12th Aug 2020 at 07:21.
A fair opinion piece.
However, stand downs are indefinite as needed and negotiations are still underway to manage the restart.
No re selection process after return from CR..but yes an onboarding chat where you don’t want to act like a fool.
However, stand downs are indefinite as needed and negotiations are still underway to manage the restart.
No re selection process after return from CR..but yes an onboarding chat where you don’t want to act like a fool.
You must be the life of a party.
Sorry - I didn’t want to post here, but now we know the numbers and the junior crew are mostly safe it’s time to put this to bed.
The only time to be worried is if QF announce fleet reductions. The VR&CR process will flow on from that.
Right now - it’s the right sized fleet for when it gets going again. The A380 is the only elephant in the room. But Qantas own them outright and can afford it keep them mothballed. It’s just the crew that’s the issue. Luckily it’s not hard to get them going on a 330 in the short term. Most would have flown it previously and are well and truly fluent in Airbus. As far as one can be.
My assessment is aviation will boom as soon there’s a vaccination. It won’t be far off. We are talking this year before we see it scaled up. Hopefully by Christmas (for vaccinations).
From there, consumer confidence will return and there will probably be a boom.
Sorry - I didn’t want to post here, but now we know the numbers and the junior crew are mostly safe it’s time to put this to bed.
The only time to be worried is if QF announce fleet reductions. The VR&CR process will flow on from that.
Right now - it’s the right sized fleet for when it gets going again. The A380 is the only elephant in the room. But Qantas own them outright and can afford it keep them mothballed. It’s just the crew that’s the issue. Luckily it’s not hard to get them going on a 330 in the short term. Most would have flown it previously and are well and truly fluent in Airbus. As far as one can be.
My assessment is aviation will boom as soon there’s a vaccination. It won’t be far off. We are talking this year before we see it scaled up. Hopefully by Christmas (for vaccinations).
From there, consumer confidence will return and there will probably be a boom.
Safe from CR ?
My goodness what are you guys smoking ? You don't have an industry atm & you got an 8% take up
Did you ever believe that very strange & interesting number of a surplus of 190 , that was bandied about months ago , it was a ridiculous number
would love to see the reasoning & the calcs behind that one. Likely many of the applicants were just about to retire & looking for a payday - no guarantee their app will be accepted
The one factor they forgot to take into account it would seem is Covid 19 - who actually did this calc and what were the assumptions made in that calc
Because it's either someone being a bit tricky or someone who has zero concept - "global aviation has ceased so that means we now have a critical surplus of 10%"
You have approx 1500 LH pilots & you do not have a LH business , it has ceased completely & won't be back for years. How could you even begin to
measure the surplus there , but clearly it is at least 500 and the more hawkish managers would argue for a 50% cut
& you have approx 800 SH pilots & a skeleton service running at less than 5 % & it won't be back in any size for at least another year , so a couple of hundred there
also go
Standown's won't continue indefinitely that is why your managers have been pointing out to you that if you chose to take
lwop they will exercise their discretion & bypass you on CR. And why they have also cautioned you that if you are CR'd well
don't expect to stroll back on the premises like you own it , they may well require you to re-do selection
One guy said before if you take lwop the company washes their hands of you , not true you are still an employee. It is when you take VR or are CR'd
you are that occurs
Lots of stories here trying to promulgate the horrors of a return from lwop & all these horrible things that might occur to you. Very unlikely based on
how lwop (& there have been hundreds) have worked to date. I think the true nightmare would be waiting for re-employment as a CR , when QF opens to
externals again which you might be thinking is 2030
What is interesting is the looking down nose tone at people who are considering lwop , words used such as "jumping over" those more senior to you. That there
is something unethical or immoral about taking it. Do the joiners from early 2000s to GFC expect those who joined after 2016 to be the sacrificial lambs for them
- is that sort of the "honourable" thing to do ? Some kind of band of brothers , who are all noblemen
Stories abound about the four engine guys demanding to displace people on the other WB fleets - is that the act of a nobleman ?
CR is coming & the variable is the % , I think the % will be between 25 & 40% , primarily from the bottom of list , but with a
bit of fiddling around the edges , SH don't escape & some by base/fleet. Likely a more targeted VR will be offered again before end of year before CR
, smallish sweets added for targeted demographics
Anyone planning on banking two years of pay via CR , it aint gonna happen , they won't want to go much over 50 weeks pay , that keeps it to joiners this century
Out from me on this matter , both the naivety and hubris on display really quite incredible
& goodluck to all certainly a tough situation
My goodness what are you guys smoking ? You don't have an industry atm & you got an 8% take up
Did you ever believe that very strange & interesting number of a surplus of 190 , that was bandied about months ago , it was a ridiculous number
would love to see the reasoning & the calcs behind that one. Likely many of the applicants were just about to retire & looking for a payday - no guarantee their app will be accepted
The one factor they forgot to take into account it would seem is Covid 19 - who actually did this calc and what were the assumptions made in that calc
Because it's either someone being a bit tricky or someone who has zero concept - "global aviation has ceased so that means we now have a critical surplus of 10%"
You have approx 1500 LH pilots & you do not have a LH business , it has ceased completely & won't be back for years. How could you even begin to
measure the surplus there , but clearly it is at least 500 and the more hawkish managers would argue for a 50% cut
& you have approx 800 SH pilots & a skeleton service running at less than 5 % & it won't be back in any size for at least another year , so a couple of hundred there
also go
Standown's won't continue indefinitely that is why your managers have been pointing out to you that if you chose to take
lwop they will exercise their discretion & bypass you on CR. And why they have also cautioned you that if you are CR'd well
don't expect to stroll back on the premises like you own it , they may well require you to re-do selection
One guy said before if you take lwop the company washes their hands of you , not true you are still an employee. It is when you take VR or are CR'd
you are that occurs
Lots of stories here trying to promulgate the horrors of a return from lwop & all these horrible things that might occur to you. Very unlikely based on
how lwop (& there have been hundreds) have worked to date. I think the true nightmare would be waiting for re-employment as a CR , when QF opens to
externals again which you might be thinking is 2030
What is interesting is the looking down nose tone at people who are considering lwop , words used such as "jumping over" those more senior to you. That there
is something unethical or immoral about taking it. Do the joiners from early 2000s to GFC expect those who joined after 2016 to be the sacrificial lambs for them
- is that sort of the "honourable" thing to do ? Some kind of band of brothers , who are all noblemen
Stories abound about the four engine guys demanding to displace people on the other WB fleets - is that the act of a nobleman ?
CR is coming & the variable is the % , I think the % will be between 25 & 40% , primarily from the bottom of list , but with a
bit of fiddling around the edges , SH don't escape & some by base/fleet. Likely a more targeted VR will be offered again before end of year before CR
, smallish sweets added for targeted demographics
Anyone planning on banking two years of pay via CR , it aint gonna happen , they won't want to go much over 50 weeks pay , that keeps it to joiners this century
Out from me on this matter , both the naivety and hubris on display really quite incredible
& goodluck to all certainly a tough situation
Are instructors and pilots going to be stood up for training pilots who aren’t needed this year when TLS has stated they want zero unnecessary cost?
A RIN may well happen this year. The training as a result of that RIN will not be for a long time.
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You don't have an industry, the aeroplanes are on the ground now , they are not in the air
But you believe you are "all safe" now
& further there will be vaccinations before Christmas - why is the Med/Science Profs all say two years from now is the best case
But you believe you are "all safe" now
& further there will be vaccinations before Christmas - why is the Med/Science Profs all say two years from now is the best case
Why is probably why the COVID recovery plan is for a 2-3 year time frame not just the second half of this year.
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very strange & interesting number of a surplus of 190 , that was bandied about months ago , it was a ridiculous number
Last edited by SandyPalms; 12th Aug 2020 at 08:06.
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One would have to take on board what Telfer has raised! AJ 3 year plan is out the window and he is coming up with another plan that will try and see QF survival past December 2021. is it about the week of August 24th the yearly is announced then there maybe some changes made to the group, sure as sh!t some big ones to international crew requirements. Only way out of this is a proven vaccine. I am not a Virologist but if anyone could comment on that, would end of 2021 be a reasonable assumption before any real effect of a vaccine is seen and rouge premiers unlock boarder restrictions?!
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I’m finding the rumour of VR only being confirmed if the proposed changes to the EA are voted in, a very confusing proposition. Presumedly the current pilots who have expressed their interest for VR would be able to vote on amendments to the EA, as they would still be employed and not redundant at the time if voting. However, under that scenario, they will be voting on reduced conditions for the whole LH pilot group, with a vested interest in a yes vote, but presuming a successful yes vote, they would never actually be subject to those reduced conditions. Not a criticism of the pilots, but if this is the proposal, surely that can’t be a moral position for QF to take.
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Company debt levels now greater than VA’s before administration. With future liabilities, employee entitlements etc surely debt must be north of 10 billion. Insufficient short to medium term revenue to service the debt. Maybe sell off frequent flyer program to buy some time. Big decisions will need to be made very soon. Vaccine can’t come quick enough.
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Telfer what are you smoking? Shorthaul is not on a 5% skeleton service, it’s been hit by the VIC lockdown but it’s at approx 22% atm. Sure still not much but 4 times your skeleton service which ended a couple of months ago mind you.
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It's still a ridiculous number , almost a random number plucked from the Sky , well it is a random number plucked from the Sky
As I speculated above (correctly it turned out) it was a sans Covid 19 calculation from your illustrious pilot cum "now I am a senior corporate manager" brigade
Ignoring completely the outside world , sort of "we at Qantas are retiring our 747 fleet that makes us 190 in surplus given that is the company
of the 747 fleet". Bet you the figure wasn't from the real managers at QF ie: AJ , Tino , head of HR/Legal etc but from flight ops management
They forgot to include the effects of shutdown of international air travel , 10m plus infected , severe global recession , no vaccine , change in business travel etc etc
So if you have 1500 LH pilots at an airline and there is no international flying even planned for the next year & now even your own flight ops guys are mentioning nothing until 2024 , what is your surplus ?
How do you model that ?
Anyone want to have a got at deriving an equation ?
As I speculated above (correctly it turned out) it was a sans Covid 19 calculation from your illustrious pilot cum "now I am a senior corporate manager" brigade
Ignoring completely the outside world , sort of "we at Qantas are retiring our 747 fleet that makes us 190 in surplus given that is the company
of the 747 fleet". Bet you the figure wasn't from the real managers at QF ie: AJ , Tino , head of HR/Legal etc but from flight ops management
They forgot to include the effects of shutdown of international air travel , 10m plus infected , severe global recession , no vaccine , change in business travel etc etc
So if you have 1500 LH pilots at an airline and there is no international flying even planned for the next year & now even your own flight ops guys are mentioning nothing until 2024 , what is your surplus ?
How do you model that ?
Anyone want to have a got at deriving an equation ?
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Telfer has it spot on. 100%.
What are my thoughts? As predicted an under-subscribed VR program. An under subscribed equity raising attempt by Qantas to the tune of $430m. Where’s the money going to come from to pay for all those VR’s now? The company doesn’t even have to take all 188 of them. Even then we are still short for numbers.
Yes it’s true I signed up under the EBA that says ‘last on first off’. I also signed up to an EBA that says you may be bypassed for CR if on LWOP. The LWOP contract confirms this.
Don’t ask me to be a sacrificial lamb. That won’t be happening. In fact, I haven’t spoken to a single SO who isn’t taking LWOP.
What are my thoughts? As predicted an under-subscribed VR program. An under subscribed equity raising attempt by Qantas to the tune of $430m. Where’s the money going to come from to pay for all those VR’s now? The company doesn’t even have to take all 188 of them. Even then we are still short for numbers.
Yes it’s true I signed up under the EBA that says ‘last on first off’. I also signed up to an EBA that says you may be bypassed for CR if on LWOP. The LWOP contract confirms this.
Don’t ask me to be a sacrificial lamb. That won’t be happening. In fact, I haven’t spoken to a single SO who isn’t taking LWOP.
You are wise in the ways of science Telfer!
The length of a piece of string is twice half its length.
I would strongly suggest that the numbers you are commenting on were accurately predicted from a gigantic spreadsheet based on that one critically important and always accurate equation.
I have some sympathy for the teams of QF drones desperate to prove how important they are while the industry they slavishly create spreadsheets for, creates nothing less than the gargantuan debt required to pay their wages, but facts aren't really going to help much right now, are they?
Normo - why are you so aggressive all the time? You are NOT safe - no one is. But leave the attacks out of it. You've got no idea how much thought, effort and sacrifices went into protecting your position and you come and throw it in everyone's face. Repeatedly! Give it a break!
The length of a piece of string is twice half its length.
I would strongly suggest that the numbers you are commenting on were accurately predicted from a gigantic spreadsheet based on that one critically important and always accurate equation.
I have some sympathy for the teams of QF drones desperate to prove how important they are while the industry they slavishly create spreadsheets for, creates nothing less than the gargantuan debt required to pay their wages, but facts aren't really going to help much right now, are they?
Normo - why are you so aggressive all the time? You are NOT safe - no one is. But leave the attacks out of it. You've got no idea how much thought, effort and sacrifices went into protecting your position and you come and throw it in everyone's face. Repeatedly! Give it a break!
Well someone hasn't got it right, post covid with all the state borders open, external borders closed, I can't see more than 50% precovid capacity, maybe a little movement depending where virgin is at. We still have a couple of years of deep recession to navigate yet.
Now about that weed, how is yours better than ours.
Now about that weed, how is yours better than ours.
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Normo - why are you so aggressive all the time? You are NOT safe - no one is. But leave the attacks out of it. You've got no idea how much thought, effort and sacrifices went into protecting your position and you come and throw it in everyone's face. Repeatedly! Give it a break!
. I'm sorry if it came across aggressive.Last edited by normanton; 12th Aug 2020 at 08:51.
In Fairness, I don't recall reading anything in this forum from Normo I would describe as aggressive, nor a lot that I actually disagree with, except the lwop option unless you can go and live with mum and dad for the next few years. I think you guys might be a little over emotionally invested. That's understandable and I have myself pulled up short so as not to exacerbate those emotions. However this is a public forum, for rumors and bull****. Not a QF Pilots forum.
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VJ difficult to get an accurate equation but then again it's amazing what smart & driven people & a whole lot of hard work
& persistence can accomplish
The variables that any equation would need to factor would be a measure of confidence , unemployment around the world , national debts , probability of vaccine within
certain time frames , effectiveness of vaccine , distribution of vaccine, rates of infection in your "travel to" countries - not easy but all need to be considered . Looks like
the surplus was calculated disregarding Covid & its effects
To get a measure of your surplus you do need to take into account Covid 19 and its effects both within Australia & overseas
As does the fact that Australian Federation of states governments will take a very very conservative view. & the heads of territories & States are just loving their moment on the
national stage - doing border control. Do you think they will give that up without a monumental fight ?
The Number of 190 if they just plucked that from how many who crewed the 747 - that is just pathetic , it is baby talk
"We got the 190 , we are all safe now , koombaya my lord koombaya" - well if that works for you goodluck
& persistence can accomplish
The variables that any equation would need to factor would be a measure of confidence , unemployment around the world , national debts , probability of vaccine within
certain time frames , effectiveness of vaccine , distribution of vaccine, rates of infection in your "travel to" countries - not easy but all need to be considered . Looks like
the surplus was calculated disregarding Covid & its effects
To get a measure of your surplus you do need to take into account Covid 19 and its effects both within Australia & overseas
As does the fact that Australian Federation of states governments will take a very very conservative view. & the heads of territories & States are just loving their moment on the
national stage - doing border control. Do you think they will give that up without a monumental fight ?
The Number of 190 if they just plucked that from how many who crewed the 747 - that is just pathetic , it is baby talk
"We got the 190 , we are all safe now , koombaya my lord koombaya" - well if that works for you goodluck
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You must be the life of a party.
Sorry - I didn’t want to post here, but now we know the numbers and the junior crew are mostly safe it’s time to put this to bed.
The only time to be worried is if QF announce fleet reductions. The VR&CR process will flow on from that.
Right now - it’s the right sized fleet for when it gets going again. The A380 is the only elephant in the room. But Qantas own them outright and can afford it keep them mothballed. It’s just the crew that’s the issue. Luckily it’s not hard to get them going on a 330 in the short term. Most would have flown it previously and are well and truly fluent in Airbus. As far as one can be.
My assessment is aviation will boom as soon there’s a vaccination. It won’t be far off. We are talking this year before we see it scaled up. Hopefully by Christmas (for vaccinations).
From there, consumer confidence will return and there will probably be a boom.
Sorry - I didn’t want to post here, but now we know the numbers and the junior crew are mostly safe it’s time to put this to bed.
The only time to be worried is if QF announce fleet reductions. The VR&CR process will flow on from that.
Right now - it’s the right sized fleet for when it gets going again. The A380 is the only elephant in the room. But Qantas own them outright and can afford it keep them mothballed. It’s just the crew that’s the issue. Luckily it’s not hard to get them going on a 330 in the short term. Most would have flown it previously and are well and truly fluent in Airbus. As far as one can be.
My assessment is aviation will boom as soon there’s a vaccination. It won’t be far off. We are talking this year before we see it scaled up. Hopefully by Christmas (for vaccinations).
From there, consumer confidence will return and there will probably be a boom.